2pts Lyon to win 6/4 (Skybet)
1.5 pts over 2.5 goals 2.16 (Betfair)

Denmans Day

In a break from tradition we seem to have won some money yesterday. Here are todays picks

4pts Denman win 7/4 (Coral)
1.5pts e/w Arabella Boy 7/1 (Paddy Power)
0.75pts e/w J'y Vole 13/2 (Lads)

CL 1st legs

2pt Draw Barcelona v Inter 23/10 (888Sport) - same logic we have followed the whole way through the knockout stages

2pts Draw Bayern v Lyon 3.9 (Betfair)

1pt double on the draws 12.5 (Betfair)

2pts Lyon to qualify 2.56 (Betfair) - decent team whith home advantage for the second leg
2pts under 2.5 goals 2.0 Lyon game (betfair) - goals are always hard to come by in the first legs of these games

End of Season racing

The last of the real racing festivals until November starts today!

1.5pts e/w Kalahari King 5.7 and 1.95 (Betfair)- impressive at Cheltenham and has obviously progressed well this season. The pace will be too strong for TM to win this with just his kick and Forpadytheplasterer has prob had one too many races this season (if he had skipped Aintree I would not oppose here). Big step up for Sizing and KK can get just rewards here.

0.5pts Golden Silver to place 4.5 (Betfair) - with doubts over a lot othe horses ahead of him in the market its worth a small play here. Alos helped by the fact that a lot of people are convinced that he needs softer ground to beat the best.

1.5pts win Blackstairmountain 5.9 (Betfair) - I think General Miller is a very good horse but slightly flattered by beating Menorah at Aintree (very hard for any horse to get the double). Blackstarimountain just failed to beat the under-rated Luska Lad in goround he hated th last day and if that hasn't left him drained he will put in a big show here.

1.5pts place BSM 2.1 (Betfair) - see above

1pt e/w Jadanli 8/1 (Ladbrokes) - quite a price for the best horse in the race. Obviously concerns over how much the race the last day took out of him but the extra distance will suit and definitely the one to beat here.

I'll post footbal and anything else later.

Downward spiral continues

The last few games of the season always provide some value so hopefully they can help pull us out of our current downward spiral.



1pt Middlesboro 10/3 (Coral) - A team who still has a chance of forcing their way back into the playoff picture against a team whose season is already over. The difference in motivation can be key here.



1.5pts Cardiff 9/5 (Lads) - Cardiff will be looking to ensure a home 2nd leg for the playoffs and bookies seem to underestimate their motivation here going very short on QPR who need points to guarantee their survival.



1pt Crystal Palace 11/5 (Betfred) - for once I disagree with MH on this one. Palace have been the better team over the past few months and if their manager can use the points deductions and their need for points for survival to their advantage then their is value in their price here.

2pts Rotherham 1.88 (Betfair) - Rotherham still have a vague chance of automatic promotion and apart from that still face a very tough time to try to secure home 2nd leg for the play-offs. Against a team just above the relegation zone who although precarious should survive. R'ham are way too short here bearing that in mind.

1pt Wolves 3/1 (SJ, Skybet) - Fulham will be distracted by their European semi-final next week and are unlikely to go full out for a game that is largely meaningless to them.

2pts e/w David Villa to score first 10/3
1.5pts 1st half highest scoring half 11/5 (Barcelona game)

Off the bar

Another day of near misses sees out losses accumulate - i'll do up a P&L shortly. Meanwhile a lot of bets worth looking at today. Apologies for the lack of explanations recently - dodging plastic bullets and tear gas canisters has limited my time online!

1.5pts e/w Big Bad Billy Bob 8/1 (Lads) - LK 4.55
0.75pts e/w Leos Lucky Angel 14/1 (Lads, VC) - LK 5.55
1pt e/w Royal And Ancient 10/1 (general) - LK 6.25
1pt e/w Birragurra 11/2 (VC) - LK6.55
1pt e/w Tipper Road 11/1 (Paddy Power) - LK7.25
1pt e/w French LEave 8/1 (Lads) - Exeter 2.10
1pt e/w Whenever 3/1 (VC) - Exeter 2.40
1pt e/w Gay Mirage 9/2 (general) Ponte 2.50
1pt e/w Distant Memory 9/1 (WH, SJ) Ponte 4.20
1pt win Sgt Schultz 4/1 (WH) Ponte 5.20
1pt e/w Knightfire 9/2 (VC, WH) Yarmouth 3.30

Wow that is a big day for a day with absolutely nothing of any quality running but GAMBLE!

1pt e/w Cocohatchee 10/1 (lads) 2.00 Folks
1pt e/w Free for All 11/4 (general) 2.30 Folks
1.5pts Dix Villez 3.1 (Betfair) 4.10 Sedge
1.5pts e/w Scarlet Rock 3/1 (Lads) 2.20 Windsor
2pts e/w Kronful 11/1 (VC) 4.50 Windsor

1pt e/w Jack the Giant 20/1 (LAds)
3pts Araucaria 3/1 (WH)
1.5pts e/w Escortmen 3/1 (Lads)
1pt e/w Knockara Beau 5/1 (VC)

But when he was good....

Nice start with the forecast!

1pt e/w Island Flyer 11/1 (VC)
1pt e/w Lord Jay Jay 16/1 (VC)
1.5pts win Mad Max 6/1 (SJ, Coral)

Aintree Day 1

OK in a bit of a rush so just going to put selections up:

1.5pts What A Friend @ 3/1 (general)
0.75pts e/w Carruthers @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes)

From here to Eternity

As the sinking ship that this blog has become over the last week attempts to bail out the water and stop us falling below the +67.99pts we have sunk to we will turn our attention back to some European action before the saviour of Aintree later in the week.

A wiser man than me once said there is no period of time between here and eternity for which an Italian team cannot defend a 1-0 lead. Tonight Inter travel to Moscow attempting to do just that. Obviously the smart money will be on the draw and so must be opposed. The absence of 2 of CSKA's central midfielders is a concern but Inter are also missing a few players and on the artificial pitch in the Moscow cauldron the much under-rated CSKA can score a victory for football by eliminating Mourinho from the competition.

2.5pts CSKA @ 3.6 (Betfair)

1pt e/w Messi to score first @ 3/1 (expekt): doesn't need a huge amount of explanation - Barca at home at 1/3 with an expected goal line of about 3.4 makes him value to get on the score sheet at some point and hopefully can deliver the win money as well for once.

3pts Bordeaux to win @ 11/10 (Paddy Power): Are still the better team in my opinion and home advantage is a massive edge in these second legs. I expect goals in this game as Bordeaux need to chase Lyon's lead.

1.5pts Over 2.5 goals @ 2.12 (Betfair): Yes French league games have horribly few goals but this is not a league game and normal rules do not apply here. Bordeaux can not afford to be cautious for too long and expect things to open up as they chase the game.

I can't really see where the price for the G3 hurdle in Fairyhouse are coming from - I would have a massively different market to this. I would have Dr DJ and Big Game Hunter a lot bigger and Shanrod slightly shorter but the biggest value looks to be Politeo. Had BGH behind him last day when they all trailed around behind Alaivan. A small interest e/w looks to be no harm.

0.75pts e/w Politeo @ 11/1 (VC)

Easter racing

OK got her earlier than I thought so just some quick thoughts on todays racing:

1pt Zaarito to win @ 7/2 (): I thought 5/2 was the right price yesterday which makes 7/2 tempting enough for us.

1.5pts Shakervilz to place @1.88 (Betfair): A very classy horse who might just be found wanting against Zaarito however solid jumping can ensure a share of the place money at least.

1.5pts e/w Hunters Belt @ 13/2 (Stan James) Musselburgh 4.50: Should be 2nd fav behind Goodlukin Lucy and massive value on the place part of this bet also.

1pt Follow the PLan @ 5/1 (VC, Paddy Power) Cork 4.45: Back off a big lay off but the only one of these horses that has ever looked like he was going anywhere over fences he can take down this one on his return.

0.5pts e/w Liss na Tintri @ 25/1 (VC, Bet 365,SKybet) Fairyhouse 2.55: I really want to oppose the favourite in this. He is too short for a horse that can't jump. I'm convinced at least on of these horses can put him under enough pressure to make the flaw pay. LnT has been an expensive horse to follow but after having been overhyped for so long people now seem to have rejected him with just as much vigour leaving him a nice price here today. The horse I really wanted to back in this was Guzzle and Go which beat LnT last time out but unfortunately he has just been withdrawn - he is definitely a horse to look out for and LnT can prove that today.

Carnage

Ok a horrendous week of football results brings us all the way back down to +80.26pts and I'm going to knock off the 10pts for Pompey getting relegated now before I forget to get all the pain out of the way and leave us a clear run at Aintree. So +70.26pts is where we stand.

1.5pts Man Utd @ 2.84 (Betfair): Obviously losing Rooney is a blow but the market seems to have massively overreacted to this. With Rooney in the line up I make Utd about a 11/10 - 6/5 shot. That they could be so much bigger has to as a result of being over-hyped even though it will be no surprise if this ends in a draw which will suits Utd much more than Chelsea.

2pts Villa @ 13/8 (Ladbrokes): 19 more pts with a game less played too much emphasis is on current form than on what these sides have done this season. Expect a reaction to their humiliation against Chelsea today.

3pts Torres to score at anytime @ 6/5 (Coral): Has averaged about a goal a game in the league this season. This is a massive value price. This is as short as 1/2 in places.

1pt 1st half to be highest scoring half Barca v Bilboa @ 11/5 (tote): Barca have scored more first half league goals than any other team. Although Bilboa might end up being a tougher game than the 1/5 suggests if Barca get an early goal this could easily be over by HT.

1pt e/w Messi to score first @ 5/2 (Paddy Power): the 5/6 we get here on Messi getting one of th first 5 goals is too big to resist even if there is no value in the win part of the bet.

1.5pts e/w David Villa to score first @ 11/4 (888sport): you know the story at this stage.

1pt e/w Higuain to score first @ 10/3 (Skybet): 23 games 23 goals and everyone keeps talking about Ronaldo - take advantage of the hype to get value here.

2pts Gijon @ 4/5 (888sport): At home against a team that is almost relegated and is 14pts below them. Should consolidate their midtable position here.

2.5pts Real Madrid clean sheet @ 5/4 (Skybet): Found a few useful facts on Opta on this one: Racing have won only one of their last 10 league games, and have failed to score a single goal in seven of these. At home, Miguel Ángel Portugal's side are winless in their last six games of La Liga, and have not scored in the last four.

OK ended up with a lot more than I thought I would today. I won't be near a computer tomorrow so just having a quick look at the Powers Gold Cup.

For once the bookies more or less have it right. I think Zaarito is the best horse and he should be fresh enough after all the F's in his form to take this down so long as he stays up not sure I'd want to get overly involved at 5/2 though

Variance works both ways!

Not going to abandon my assertion that draws are over priced in 1st leg games despite another disappointing week - in poker sometimes the fish have to win to keep them coming back. The same applies in sports betting.SO...

2pts Draw Benfica v Liverpool @ 23/10 (Ladbrokes)
2pts Draw Fulham v Wolfsburg @ 5/2 (Ladbrokes)
2pts Draw Hamburf v Liege @ 4.3 (Betfair)
2pts Draw Valencia v Athletico @ 3.8 (Betfair)

0.25pts Yankee - 4 Draws Ladbrokes (23/10, 5/2, 3/1, 5/2)

1pt Gerrard to score anytime @ 3/1 (extrabet); Has a phemonenal European scoring record and is way to big here.

Sell bookings points for 0.15pts per point @ 38 (Sportingindex)