15 days to go

OK so the weekend has boosted us back up to +47.8pts.



Now its time to start on the WC. Just a quick overview on our betting strategy for the next few weeks. As well as the usual search for over-hyped teams and over-reactions we will be looking a lot at the chances of games being draws. Some stage of the competition are gravy for opposing draws and others are just as good for backing the draw. In the group stages I will also be looking at the impact of the game order on the group outcomes. Altitude will be considered as from my own experience of trying to run up a hill here indicates that it may be more of a factor than people anticipate. I'm going to start with the groups preview then move on to the outrights and specials markets and after that we will start looking at individual games.



OK so lets start.



Group A - this is a messy group. France should prevail due to the weakness of the other teams. South Africa are hosts and the atmosphere will be electric so they could spring a surprise and get second, but this is not a group I have any interest in betting on.



Group B: My general thoery on game order is that it is a big advantage for a team fighting for second to play the weakest team first and athe strongest team last. Several reasons. Firstly winning the first game while the team you are fighting against for second play the strongest team means you go into the second game against them with 3 points and quite happy with a draw while they have zero and are desperately in need of points on the board. This puts all the pressure on the other team which can only be a positive thing. Playing the strongest team last meana their is a reasonable chance they will already have 6 points and may rest some key players to avoid injury/suspension especially given that all yellow cards are wiped after the group stage. Greece play Korea in their first game. Korea struggle to defend set pieces - one of Greeces key strengths. An opening win for the Greeks puts them in good nick going into the game against Nigeria where a draw should be sufficient. If Argentina win their opening 2 games it is very unlikely Mascherano will play the 3rd game and if I was manager neither would Messi. So Greece have to be the call here to sneak second place.



1.5pts Greece to qualify 6/4 (Coral)


Group C: Again in this group the USA are at a disadvantage through playing England first. I can make a case for both Slovenia and Algeria qualifying as I think both are vastly under-rated. It should be remembered that Slovenia qualified based on a 2 leg playoff win over Russia while Algeria beat Egypt (ANC Winners) to get here.

1.5pts USA not to qualify 5/4 (888sport)

0.5pts Algeria to qualify 4/1 (general)


Group D: In this group I really like Ghana. They went into the African Cup with most of their big name players injured but the young players from last years U-19 winning WC team stepped up to the mark and produced a very cohesive performance to get 3rd. If the coach gets the balance between youth and experience right here Ghana could be the most successful of the African teams at this world cup. However looking at the prices there seems some inconsistency. Ghana and Serbia are roughly the same prices to beat Germany and Australia, to qualify Serbia are 1.97 and Ghana are 2.32 but in the match between the 2 sides you can get 3.7 on Ghana to win and 2.32 on Serbia so I'm going to be ignoring the to qualify market and have a big bet on Ghana to win the opener - will post that in the game preview section.


Group E: No bet here. Denmark are the ssecond best team but do have a tough opener against the Dutch. I think they will be strong enough mentally to overcome that disadvantage but not looking to get any cash involved.


Group F: Slovakia have everything in their favour here in terms of game order and for a team that topped their Euro qualifying group to be such underdogs to Paraguay seems incredible to me. Their is even a chance that Slovakia could be good enough to squeeze past an aging Italian side for first. SO with Italy and Slovakia fighting it out for first and second backing Paraguay for 3rd looks a good bet to me.
2pts Paraguay to come 3rd 5/2 (Bodog)
1pt Slovakia to win Group F 15/2 (VC)


Group G: Very similar price anomaly to the Ghana group here. I personally think Sven is the perfect manager to get the best out of Ivory Coasts underperforming stars. Portugal have been disappointing in qualifying and as I write this I see they've just had a 0-0 draw with the mighty Cape Verde Islands although I'm not sure who they had playing. Looking at the prices though the best value is again is having a big bet on Ivory Coast to win the opener against Portugal.


Group H: Here Chile have the ideal game order with a high probabilty of facing a weakened Spanish team in their final game. Given that I think they have to be backed to qualify at Switzerlands expense.
1.5pts Chile to qualify 8/11 (Coral, extrabet)

OK as far as I can make out from going back through the records we have decimated our profits to +29pts. Fortunately I expect to get the blog back on track with the world cup on the horizon but first just a few bits on todays sport.

2pts e/w Canford Cliffs 3/1 (WH) - Currragh 3.45: Very classy horse 3rd in the English equivalent and can get his rewards here today.

1.5pts win Markhab 9/2 (Lads) - Curragh 3.10: Lads are out of line here and he is much shorter in most other places after a win first time out this season. Hard to be enthusiatic about an O'Brien horse that is aimed at bigger things running in a G3 on his seasons debut.

0.75pts e/w Choose Me 15/2 (VC) - Curragh 4.20 - theonly onewho seems likely to be able to put it up to the favourite and massive value on the place part here.

0.75 pts e/w Break Serve 8/1 (VC Lads) - Lingfield 8.00 - no strength in depth in this race and it would be a shock if he doesn't at least place here with the benefit of a warm up run.

1pt e/w Hamish McGonagall 9/2 (Lads) - York 3.40: shorter for both win and place on betfair. You can play to lay or just ride it out. I think you know which options I'll be taking!

Sat bits and pieces

0.5pts e/w Conceptual Art - Newmarket 4.35 20/1 (VC): can improve on debut to feature here and will show a good return on the place part even if he does come up short against the jolly.

0.75pts e/w Border Fusion - Bangor 5.45 10/3 (VC, Paddy Power): a solid performer who although not as good as Ice Tea is a more consistent sort. With the market suggesting that this is at best a 4 horse race we can be pretty confident of collecting the place money and just have to hope Ice Tea doesn't quite fancy it today to land the win part too.

1pt win Red Jester Uttoxeter 7.25 5/1 (general): question marks about all the other market leaders either abilities or temperament. This is a solid horse who ran consistently well last season. Can get himself off to a winning start for the season here.

0.75pts e/w Anne of Kiev - Doncaster8.10 5/1 (general): this horse should start a little shorter and nice value on the place part of the bet.

0.75pts e/w Bilash - Doncaster8.40 9/1 (VC): should be a lot closer to the 2 market leaders in price imo. Can pput it up to Humidor for the honours here.

1.5pts win Kerb Appeal - Kilbeggan 6.40 11/10 (general): a solid 3rd in a grade 2 behind runaway winner Western Leader is comfrtably the best form on offer here and assuming that the last day was just a blip he can comfortably account for these including the improving 2nd fav One back for Luck.

Blog is back

Ok lads I've been doing a lot of travel recently and haven't got a chance to update here. But am now back on the gambling thread and starting into my research for the WC. I will hopefully have some thoughts onthat to post in the next few days along with an updated P&L position. For the mean time it is playoff weekend this weekend so should be some value knocking around there:

0.2pts Yankee Draws in all 4 League 1 & 2 play-off 1st legs (Betfred - 9/4, 23/10, 12/5, 5/2): Goals will be at a premium here with very little between the sides and a cautious approach likely making draws a lot more likely.

2pts Draw Swindon v Charlton 23/10 (Coral, Sky bet)
2pts Draw Huddersfield v Millwall 23/10 (Betfred, BlueSq, Coral, 888)
2pts Draw Aldershot v Rotherham 12/5 (general)
2pts Draw D&R v Morecombe 5/2 (Betfred)

1.5pts under 2.5 goals Swindon v Charlton 1.82 (Betfair)
0.5pts Charlton to win 1-0 10.5 (Betfair) - a good price on what is the most likely scenario to unhinge are draw bet.