Outrights and specials

Ok so if you look at the history of the golden boot the winner almost always come from a team that has reached at least the semi-finals which isn't really that surprising given that you get 2 extra games if you are a QF winner rather than a loser and also winning teams will tend to be scoring more goals. Another key thing to look at though is where the goals will come from in the group stage. No winner since Stoichkov has won without scoring at least 3 goals in the group stages. so a few easy games early on are key. Also worth bearing in mind that for the really strong teams who have qualified after 2 games they may be resting their key players in the 3rd game.
It is not hard to see why Villa is favourite playing for Spain with a strong supply and a game against Honduras to boost his tally. However when you look at the match odds Brazil are the team with the easiest game on paper versus North Korea and are also odds on favourites in their other 2 games. They have to be fancied to go close and with Fabiano as their only out and out striker compared to a Spanish team which will be sharing the goals around. Fabiano was top goalscorer in South American qualifying and is available at 4 points bigger than Villa - get on!

1.5pts Fabiano 12/1 (general)

Another player that does look interesting is Gilardino. I think this Italy team is too old to be retaining their trophy but I do expect them to hang around for a while and if Gilardino get the nod up front the 14/1 on him being one of the top 4 goalscorers is definitely interesting when you throw in the prospect of a game against New Zealand in the group stages.

0.5pts Gilardino Top 4 goalscorers 15.0 (Betfair)

Sticking with goalscorers VC have some interesting match bets priced up although they have taken down the best which was RVP vs Tevez. There is still value is backing Rooney at 10/11 to outscore Ronaldo. He is likely to get a few more games and England have been performing a lot better than the Portuguese recently.

1.5pts Rooney (v Ronaldo) 10/11 (VC)

And now on from goals to disallowed goals. You can sell disallowed goals with sportingindex at 24.5 which looks massive to me (esp when you consider this does not include extra time)

Sell "Shocking decision ref' at 24.5 for 1.5pts a goals (sportingindex)