2pts Tidal Bay 11/4 - 2.50 Wetherby: This horse should be favourite here. On a line of form through Big Bucks everyone else has a bit to find on him. He's a very classy horse who has still put in some decent displays over the last 2 years despite not being at his best.
0.75pts e/w Knockara Beau @ 10/1(Lads, bet365, WH) - 3.25 Wetherby: There are no superstars in this and KB is the horse most likely to be improveing after a good end to last season including a 4th in the RSA behind Weapons Amnesty.
0.5pts e/w Don't Pay the Ferryman @ 8/1 (Boyles) - 5.10 Wetherby: Nice e/w value on a decent horse in this 16 runner handicap.
2pts Othermix @ 7/2 - Ascot 2.25 - Should be clear favourite here. Was second in the Jewson at the end of last season where he had China Rock behind. Previously had won G3 and placed in G1 hurdles over in France. Only a matter of time before getting the win he deserves over fences.
1pt King Edmund 13/2 (Stan James): Great novice chaser last season who made the frame on every completed start winning 3/5.
1.5pts Catch Me 7/2 (paddy Power): This is a 2 horse race that I expect Capt CB to win but 7/2 is way too big for a horse this good in a match bet.
Saturday, 30 October 2010
Friday, 29 October 2010
Weekend Football
Quick football blog with racing to follow in the morning:
Lay Arsenal @1.2 Betfair -liability 1 pt: Arsenal are too short here for the London derby. Should be closer to 2/7. West Ham are not as bad as their results suggest and can frustrate their neighbours here.
0.5pts Stoke to win 1-0 @20.0 (Betfair): Stoke to win is slightly over-priced 7.6 versus what shoud be about 6.4 however given that we expect this to be a low scoring affair we are happy to take a punt on Stoke scaping by with the only goal.
2.5pts Man City @ 4/5 (bet365): Even without Tevez City have enough strength in depth to win this easily. Hard to imagine any other top 4 side at a similar price for this game.
1.5pts Sunderland :3.8 (Betfair): I rate them the better team in this derby and so they are slightly over-priced here even if their lack of goals is a slight concern.
3 pts Racing Santander @ 6/4 (boyles): Should be closer to evens. The better team here and should win with home advantage
2 pts Atletico Madrid @4/7 (888sport.com): should be 4/9 get involved.
Lay Arsenal @1.2 Betfair -liability 1 pt: Arsenal are too short here for the London derby. Should be closer to 2/7. West Ham are not as bad as their results suggest and can frustrate their neighbours here.
0.5pts Stoke to win 1-0 @20.0 (Betfair): Stoke to win is slightly over-priced 7.6 versus what shoud be about 6.4 however given that we expect this to be a low scoring affair we are happy to take a punt on Stoke scaping by with the only goal.
2.5pts Man City @ 4/5 (bet365): Even without Tevez City have enough strength in depth to win this easily. Hard to imagine any other top 4 side at a similar price for this game.
1.5pts Sunderland :3.8 (Betfair): I rate them the better team in this derby and so they are slightly over-priced here even if their lack of goals is a slight concern.
3 pts Racing Santander @ 6/4 (boyles): Should be closer to evens. The better team here and should win with home advantage
2 pts Atletico Madrid @4/7 (888sport.com): should be 4/9 get involved.
Saturday, 23 October 2010
Saturday
Ok I'm out of the country at the minute so the explanations will be brief today:
1pt It's Crucial @7/1 (Bet365) 2.45 Aintree: Likes to frontrun which is a big bonus here. \also would be the best of these horses. The big dnager could be an improving Safari Adventures.
2pts Tartak @9/4 (general) 3.20 AAintree: Monets Garden is too old. Alberta's Run beat Tartak by 5ls here the end of last season off level weights - giving away loads of weight today. Poqelin might not be best suited to Aintree and given the connections is unlikely to offer any value.
2pts Tartak to place @ 1.95(Betfair)
0.5pts e/w Phare Isle @ 18/1 (VCbet) 4.00 Aintree: Can come late to make the frame here in a very ordinary race.
1.5pts e/w Master of the Hounds @15/2 (VCbet) 2.55 Doncaster: Very little to choose between him and Dunboyne Express and not 100% convinced by Casamento yet.
1.5pts Aruacaria evns (PP) 3.15 Wexford: Top class bumper horse who should improve for her first run over hurdles the last day. Facing similar opposition and a similar result to be expected.
1pt Tottenham 2.2 (Betfair)
1pt Birmingham 2.0 (Betfair)
1pt Aston Villa 3.45 (Betfair)
1pt Fulham 4.2(Betfair)
1pt West Ham 7/5 (totesport)
1pt It's Crucial @7/1 (Bet365) 2.45 Aintree: Likes to frontrun which is a big bonus here. \also would be the best of these horses. The big dnager could be an improving Safari Adventures.
2pts Tartak @9/4 (general) 3.20 AAintree: Monets Garden is too old. Alberta's Run beat Tartak by 5ls here the end of last season off level weights - giving away loads of weight today. Poqelin might not be best suited to Aintree and given the connections is unlikely to offer any value.
2pts Tartak to place @ 1.95(Betfair)
0.5pts e/w Phare Isle @ 18/1 (VCbet) 4.00 Aintree: Can come late to make the frame here in a very ordinary race.
1.5pts e/w Master of the Hounds @15/2 (VCbet) 2.55 Doncaster: Very little to choose between him and Dunboyne Express and not 100% convinced by Casamento yet.
1.5pts Aruacaria evns (PP) 3.15 Wexford: Top class bumper horse who should improve for her first run over hurdles the last day. Facing similar opposition and a similar result to be expected.
1pt Tottenham 2.2 (Betfair)
1pt Birmingham 2.0 (Betfair)
1pt Aston Villa 3.45 (Betfair)
1pt Fulham 4.2(Betfair)
1pt West Ham 7/5 (totesport)
Tuesday, 19 October 2010
CL Wed
To date
Total: +30.84pts
HR: -0.29pts
Football: +31.13pts
OK I'll start with the Barcelona game. Barca are 1/7 and the spread firms expect them to score roughly 3 goals at home to Copenhagen. Given that, it could pay to side with one of our favourite bets of last season and back Villa to get on the score sheet. Sure we don't expect him to be quite as reliable as he was last season at Valencia where he was the focus of all the attacks but at 4/5 (although as short as 4/11 in places) in the Nou Camp he is definitely worth a bet
1.5pts Villa to score anytime @ 4/5 (Unibet)
Lyon's poor start to the season seems to be overplayed in their price to beat Benfica. Lyon have started to find a bit of form domestically and have already won their first 2 CL games (although admittedly Schalke were out of form and injury depleted when they struggled by them. Even still odds against at home against Portugese opposition looks too good to pass up.
2pts Lyon @6/5 (bet 365)
As said above Schalke had an injury hit and slow start to the season but they are start to come to themselves now. They are at home this week to a team that are probably one of the worst 3 teams in the competition and we expect them to have way too much firepower so we are happy to take them on the Asian handicap of -1 with our stake refunded if they only win by the minimum.
1.5pts Schalke -1 @5/6 (Asian H/C) (Stan James)
Also in this game it is worth getting involved in the goalscorer markets. Huntelaar has scored in his last 7 games and can be relied upon again here to figure with his main opposition probably coming from Farfan.
1pt e/w Huntelaar to score first @ 4/1 (bet365)
Finally I really don't think home advantage in europe can count for enough to keep Valencia odds against for their trip to Glasgow. They are a hugely superior team who destroyed a Bursaspor team away which Rangers struggled to break down at home. They suffered their first league defeat of the season to Barca at the weekend and come here needing the 3 points to get back on track after being very unlucky to lose to a United side which offered very little for much of the game in the Mestalla.
2pts Valencia @ 6/5 (Stan James, 888sport)
Total: +30.84pts
HR: -0.29pts
Football: +31.13pts
OK I'll start with the Barcelona game. Barca are 1/7 and the spread firms expect them to score roughly 3 goals at home to Copenhagen. Given that, it could pay to side with one of our favourite bets of last season and back Villa to get on the score sheet. Sure we don't expect him to be quite as reliable as he was last season at Valencia where he was the focus of all the attacks but at 4/5 (although as short as 4/11 in places) in the Nou Camp he is definitely worth a bet
1.5pts Villa to score anytime @ 4/5 (Unibet)
Lyon's poor start to the season seems to be overplayed in their price to beat Benfica. Lyon have started to find a bit of form domestically and have already won their first 2 CL games (although admittedly Schalke were out of form and injury depleted when they struggled by them. Even still odds against at home against Portugese opposition looks too good to pass up.
2pts Lyon @6/5 (bet 365)
As said above Schalke had an injury hit and slow start to the season but they are start to come to themselves now. They are at home this week to a team that are probably one of the worst 3 teams in the competition and we expect them to have way too much firepower so we are happy to take them on the Asian handicap of -1 with our stake refunded if they only win by the minimum.
1.5pts Schalke -1 @5/6 (Asian H/C) (Stan James)
Also in this game it is worth getting involved in the goalscorer markets. Huntelaar has scored in his last 7 games and can be relied upon again here to figure with his main opposition probably coming from Farfan.
1pt e/w Huntelaar to score first @ 4/1 (bet365)
Finally I really don't think home advantage in europe can count for enough to keep Valencia odds against for their trip to Glasgow. They are a hugely superior team who destroyed a Bursaspor team away which Rangers struggled to break down at home. They suffered their first league defeat of the season to Barca at the weekend and come here needing the 3 points to get back on track after being very unlucky to lose to a United side which offered very little for much of the game in the Mestalla.
2pts Valencia @ 6/5 (Stan James, 888sport)
Saturday, 2 October 2010
Saturday Racing
2pts Goldwaki 7/4 2.40Longchamp (general): This is a genuine G1 horse and has some decent placed efforts behind Behkebad and Planteur (the top 2 in the betting for tomorrows Arc). He will relish the extra 2f and the mudbath that Longchamp seems to be this weekend. Given that Fabre has half the field here the fact that Peslier is riding indicates there should be nothing waiting in the long grass here.
1pt Saphresa 9/2 (Betfred) 3.00 Newmarket: Won this race last year on her way to a tilt at one of Japan's big races in Kyoto. Back to form the last day winning a G3 in France easily. She can take advatage of Music Shows long hard season and Spacious may once again have to settle for 2nd.
1pt Bob Lingo 3/1 (Will Hill) 4.10 Gowran: The favourite here hasn't jumped a fence before at a racecourse and the rest of the runners (those who've actually managed to complete a chase) have had pretty average results, none of which are up to the standard set by Bob Lingo in coming 2nd to Whatuthink last season when he had a few useful horses behind him.
0.5pts e/w Tinakellylad 16/1 (VC, Boyles, Hills) 4.45 Gowran: Has some useful form last season including a win over Kempes. Has a lot of weight today but will love the ground and has the class to feature here.
1pt Saphresa 9/2 (Betfred) 3.00 Newmarket: Won this race last year on her way to a tilt at one of Japan's big races in Kyoto. Back to form the last day winning a G3 in France easily. She can take advatage of Music Shows long hard season and Spacious may once again have to settle for 2nd.
1pt Bob Lingo 3/1 (Will Hill) 4.10 Gowran: The favourite here hasn't jumped a fence before at a racecourse and the rest of the runners (those who've actually managed to complete a chase) have had pretty average results, none of which are up to the standard set by Bob Lingo in coming 2nd to Whatuthink last season when he had a few useful horses behind him.
0.5pts e/w Tinakellylad 16/1 (VC, Boyles, Hills) 4.45 Gowran: Has some useful form last season including a win over Kempes. Has a lot of weight today but will love the ground and has the class to feature here.
Friday, 1 October 2010
Madchester prices
OK so after the first week back the results are as follows:
HR: - 0.79pts
Football: +31.99pts
Total: +31.2pts
This is just a football entry - any racing tips will be added tomorrow hopefully by lunchtime.
2pts Man Utd 5/6 (Will Hill): I would have this price closer to 4/6 than 5/6. Ok part of the drift is Rooney's absence but goals haven't exactly been the problem for Utd away from home this season, their problems have been due to the 7 sloppy goals they have conceded. On that front Rio should return to the back 4 to bring a bit of stability there and that will be a massive boost for Utd in this game. Given that I have no doubts about steaming in here and trusting in Utd to follow up their midweek clean sheet with another good defensive performance here.
3pts Man City 1.48 (Betfair): Again I find myself opposing Newcastle - for some reason they seem to be over-estimated by the bookies and every week there seems to be value in opposing them. This week its City's turn, I reckon 4/11 is about fair for City in this game, to see them as big as 4/9 is quite a shock. Its' hard to imagine any of the rest of the big 4 being this big at home to Newcastle.
1pts Tottenham @ evns (general): Spurs are the better of these 2 sides and should be odds-on for this game. Not entirely convinced that Houllier is going to make such an instant impact and although Villa are a team I quite like with some exciting talent I'm happy to oppose here against a team that is currently one or two places better a season.
1pt Everton draw no bet 1.91 (Stan James): The 17/10 for the Everton win is way too big here in terms of season long expectations however at the moment the big problem they have is scoring goals. Until they resolve that problem it's hard to get over-involved on them to win games so we are going to go with the draw no bet option here. They won't be easy to break down and if they do nick a goal it could be enough to put an end to Birminghams unbeaten home run.
0.75pts Bolton @ 14/5 (Will Hill): Seems an over-reaction to West Broms win at the Emirates last week. I have Bolton as a slightly better team than West Brom whereas according to these prices WB are very slightly better than Bolton. Enough of a difference for a small involvement.
1pt Schalke @ 2.35 (Unibet): Schalke had a horrible start to the season but have started to turn it around in the last few games including when landing the odds for us in midweek. There is still a slight over-reaction to their poor start in the odds so we'll trust in them to deliver again this weekend against relegation candidates Nurnberg.
1pt Sporting Gijon @ 4.0 (Betfair): Zaragoza are rated the better team here according to the match odds but in my opinion Gijon are the better team and have suffered from a tough start to the season playing Barca, Valencia and Atletico in their first 5 games. I think they should be at least 1/2pt shorter.
1pt Getafe @23/20 (VCbet, Will Hill): The big question here is whether Hercules are really better than everybody including me gave them credit for or is it a temporary blip due to players overperforming against the biggest names. I'm still tempted to think its the latter. Hercules beat Barca and Sevilla but got 1 point from their 2 games against minnows Bilbao and Zaragoza. I think with the focus elsewhere Hercules will revert to their normal level of performance and Getafe can capitalise.
0.5pts Levante @4/1 (general): 2 of the worst teams in the division but not as much of a difference between them as the odds suggest. Worth a small investment on underdogs here.
HR: - 0.79pts
Football: +31.99pts
Total: +31.2pts
This is just a football entry - any racing tips will be added tomorrow hopefully by lunchtime.
2pts Man Utd 5/6 (Will Hill): I would have this price closer to 4/6 than 5/6. Ok part of the drift is Rooney's absence but goals haven't exactly been the problem for Utd away from home this season, their problems have been due to the 7 sloppy goals they have conceded. On that front Rio should return to the back 4 to bring a bit of stability there and that will be a massive boost for Utd in this game. Given that I have no doubts about steaming in here and trusting in Utd to follow up their midweek clean sheet with another good defensive performance here.
3pts Man City 1.48 (Betfair): Again I find myself opposing Newcastle - for some reason they seem to be over-estimated by the bookies and every week there seems to be value in opposing them. This week its City's turn, I reckon 4/11 is about fair for City in this game, to see them as big as 4/9 is quite a shock. Its' hard to imagine any of the rest of the big 4 being this big at home to Newcastle.
1pts Tottenham @ evns (general): Spurs are the better of these 2 sides and should be odds-on for this game. Not entirely convinced that Houllier is going to make such an instant impact and although Villa are a team I quite like with some exciting talent I'm happy to oppose here against a team that is currently one or two places better a season.
1pt Everton draw no bet 1.91 (Stan James): The 17/10 for the Everton win is way too big here in terms of season long expectations however at the moment the big problem they have is scoring goals. Until they resolve that problem it's hard to get over-involved on them to win games so we are going to go with the draw no bet option here. They won't be easy to break down and if they do nick a goal it could be enough to put an end to Birminghams unbeaten home run.
0.75pts Bolton @ 14/5 (Will Hill): Seems an over-reaction to West Broms win at the Emirates last week. I have Bolton as a slightly better team than West Brom whereas according to these prices WB are very slightly better than Bolton. Enough of a difference for a small involvement.
1pt Schalke @ 2.35 (Unibet): Schalke had a horrible start to the season but have started to turn it around in the last few games including when landing the odds for us in midweek. There is still a slight over-reaction to their poor start in the odds so we'll trust in them to deliver again this weekend against relegation candidates Nurnberg.
1pt Sporting Gijon @ 4.0 (Betfair): Zaragoza are rated the better team here according to the match odds but in my opinion Gijon are the better team and have suffered from a tough start to the season playing Barca, Valencia and Atletico in their first 5 games. I think they should be at least 1/2pt shorter.
1pt Getafe @23/20 (VCbet, Will Hill): The big question here is whether Hercules are really better than everybody including me gave them credit for or is it a temporary blip due to players overperforming against the biggest names. I'm still tempted to think its the latter. Hercules beat Barca and Sevilla but got 1 point from their 2 games against minnows Bilbao and Zaragoza. I think with the focus elsewhere Hercules will revert to their normal level of performance and Getafe can capitalise.
0.5pts Levante @4/1 (general): 2 of the worst teams in the division but not as much of a difference between them as the odds suggest. Worth a small investment on underdogs here.
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