Of mice and men...

I don't know what to say really. I didn't get to see the games but by all accounts lunacy on the part of refs and goalkeepers seem to have conspired to ensure we lost all our bets last night. Offside goals, indirect free kicks 5 yds out, reckless red cards..... The worst of it is you van be sure those clowns responsible will be on the plane to South Africa with UEFA's blessing despite the fact they would be better off trying to get to know the guide-dogs they unquestionably need in order to lead a semi-functional life.



Fortunately tomorrow we get to move on to Cheltenham, probably starting with a World hurdle preview but first we are going to allow the powers that be in UEFA the opportunity to inflict even more pain on us. Due to their constant tampering with the format it is slightly harder to be confident that there are any definite anomalies in the first leg of the second round games but logic dictates that there should be. So we will walk on through the storm and get on the draws again in some of the more even games and one or 2 where the stubborn resistance of a minnow might be enough to frustrate one of the big guns.

1 pt draw on the following games:
Ajax v Juve 23/10 (Paddy Power)
Copenhagen v Marseilles 12/5 (bet365)
Hertha v Benfica 12/5 (bet365)
Liverpool v UU 9/2 (Bwin)
Pan v Roma 23/10 (Betfred)

Hmmm!

Not a great start to an epic week of gambing but we will persist and hopefully prevail in the end. Tonight's Arsenal Porto game is being reffed by the only man within 500 miles of Paris not to notice Henry's handball (great to see UEFA's meritocracy system working overtime when it comes to appointing ref's for the big games!). I expect there won't be much for him to notice tonight and rest assured if anything controversial does happen he won't see it so we can quite confidently sell bookings.

Sell booking 1.5pts per card @ 42 (extrabet)

Also 3pts Won in the Dark 10/11 (Paddy Power): Rated 31 pounds better than nearest rival and this is a massive drop in class. Not really sure why she isn't about 1/3.

Time to stand up and bet like a man

OK UEFA have slightly damped my hopes for an all-in gamble fest this week by having half of the CL games next week but there is still a lot to get excited about in the games we do have. Most of the bets that follow stem from the very simple idea that in the first leg of these games very little tends to happen - there are less goals, less bookings, less everything. Less goals means more draws and more draws means more cash for us!

0.2pts Lucky 15 on 4 draws (AC 21/10, Lyon 40/17, Bay 56/19, Porto 11/5 - Bwin.com) Total stake 3 pts.

2pts draw AC v Man U @ 11/5 (Stan James, Tote)
0.5pts 0-0 @ 9.0 (Betfair)
Spread bets will be posted tomorrow when lines are available.

2pts draw Lyon v Real @ 40/17 (Bwin.com)
0.5 pts 0-0 @ 10/1 (sportingbet)
1pt under 2.5 goals @ 1.87 (Betfair)
Spread bets will be posted tomorrow when lines are available.

The Bayern game is one of the few games I'm tempted by a win price - 6's on Fiorentina, i know they are having an indifferent season in Seria A but Bayern really aren't that good despite some of their star names so want to oppose them at all opportunities. That said an Italian team away from home would not regard a nice 0-0 draw as a disaster.

3pts draw @ 3.4 (Betfair)
0.5 pts Fiorentina @8.0 (Betfair)
1.5pts under 2.5 goals 2.02 (Betfair)
0.5pts 0-0 draw @ 13.0 (Betfair)

2pts draw Porto v Arsenal @ 9/4 (Stan James)
0.5 pts 0-0 draw @9.6 (Betfair)

Will hopefully have a few more bets to add to the collection before kick-off so keep an eye out

Denmania

I wish I had the use of both hands to tell you just how retarded this price is. Unfortunately I don't. So you'll just have to trust me that this is a massive over-reaction to one fall. Should be half the price he is. Also you are getting 1.87 on a place!!! If he stands up in Cheltenham he is in the top 3.

2pts e/w Denman 7/2 for the Gold Cup (Lads, Will Hill, VC)

Will have a blog up by Tuesday on how to build a nice war chest for Chelt out of the CL games. After that I will start previewing Chelt race by race so keep an eye out. Also if any of ye are at any of the previews on around home can ye send me on a summary of what is said. Cheltenham doesn't seem to be a big deal in Koh Samui somehow.

2.5pts Birmingham @ 5/2 (Coral): Crazy price when you look at the league position and form of these 2 teams the price should be somewhere around the 7/4 mark maybe even lower.

Into Africa

OK it is not often this blog likes to boast but I think for once we have to today. We are not boasting about having bumped our profits up to 23.95pts despite Liverpool and Cameroon letting us down - rather we are boasting about finally getting Boyles to accept a reasonable sized bet from us.

2pts Wayne Rooney to be top English goalscorer at the WC @ 11/4 (Boylesports): Scored 9 in qualifying and is in prolific form this season finally playing in his proper position. I expect England to have a relatively successful time in S. Africa and 5-6 games should allow him the time to establish himself as the teams most prolific striker.

Are Liverpool really that bad?

After a nice profitable weekend we might as well keep going with bookies really doing their best to tempt me away from the beach.

1.5pts Liverpool @ 4/5 (bet365): Yes Liverpool are bad but they are not this bad. They still have accumulated twice as many points as Wolves and even without Torres and Gerrard should be too good for them. Seems an over-reaction to all the negative hype surrounding Liverpool of late - take advantage

2pts Solwhit @ 6/1 for the Champion Hurdle (Ladbrokes): Lads have been surprisingly slow to react to his victory yesterday and 5's is a fairer price. Obviously the danger is all the English money will go for Zaynar on the day and the Irish money will be split between our several genuine contenders leaving even better value on the day. But never say no to value you don't know for sure how long it will last!