Same same

OK you know the score on most of these bets already:

2pts 1st half highest scoring half Barca v Racing @ 11/5 (Totesport)
1pt e/w Messi to score first @ 11/4 (general)
2pts David Villa to score first @ 7/2 (bwin.com)
2pts David Villa to score anytime @ 9/10 (bwin.com)

Also a few each way plays on the horse racing;
1pt e/w Spirit of Adjisa 9/1 (paddy Power)
1pt e/w Lush Life 4/1 (Ladbrokes, PP)
1.5pts e/w Politeo 5/1 (Ladbrokes,Tote)

Also can't resist having:
1.5pts on Notre Pere @ 9/4 (Ladbrokes) - has perfect ground for him and I rank him a fair bit better than any of his rivals.

Can't hold back the tide

Having watched our profit decimated to +7.42pts this week it is a relieve to return to a bit of horse racing and start the Cheltenham previews. Now it is still a few weeks til the off so feel free to leave comments with your own thoughts or arguements. I should probably start this preview by saying that apart from a handful of races over Christmas i haven't seen any racing this season at all. I am basing my thoughts purely on who the horses have beaten where they have beaten them and how quickly they did it. Hopefully any info I lose from not having seen the races will be counteracted by the lack of noise from over-hyped horses.

OK so going to start with the World Hurdle. It is hard to knock what Big Buck's has achieved - undefeated since the festival 2 years ago winning on all 3 visits to Cheltenham since however this may partly be explained by people's reluctance to keep their horses running 3m hurdles unless they turn out to be top class at them - usually the horses that could compete are sent chasing as in the case of Punchestown last years runner up. BB is the real deal but at 4/6 I would not be in a rush to back him.
Karabak is a top quality horse but he has a nastyu habit of always finding one to good for him, as was the case last year with Mikael d'Haguenet. He was easily held by BB over Christmas and no reason to think thathe will turn that around at Cheltenham.
Tidal Bay is the horse I think provides the value in the race as the horse with a bit of real class and finally back in good form. I don't think it was ever connections long term plan to have this horse run the WH but after a largely disappointing spell chasing he was sent hurdling to freshen himself up and all of a sudden a fast and impressive win over course and distance made this the obvious target. The manner of his Arkle win 2 years ago combined with the time he posted last time out leaves me to believe ther is not much between him and BB. Given TB is available at 9's and that his place price of 9/4 is closer to what I believe his win price should be it is time to get on.
Of the horses at bigger prices 3 stand out for me with not much between them - WOA, Powerstation, and Oscar Dan Dan. Of the 3 if I was to have a little each way on any of them it would probably be Powerstation whp is in reasonable form this year and ran into a place in this last year and was 2nd to Black Jack Ketchem the year before. I would love to see WOA do well and end his career in stlye but he isn't as good over hurdles as he is over fences and I can't see him finding the improvement necessary at this stage in his career. Oscar Dan Dan strikes me as a horse that will love the hill and as the others start to stop he will still be moving throught the field - whether he'll be close enough to the business end of things at that stage is the big question. There are definitely worse 100/1 e/w shots than him.

2pts e/w Tidal Bay(Ladbroke, Paddy Power)

Of mice and men...

I don't know what to say really. I didn't get to see the games but by all accounts lunacy on the part of refs and goalkeepers seem to have conspired to ensure we lost all our bets last night. Offside goals, indirect free kicks 5 yds out, reckless red cards..... The worst of it is you van be sure those clowns responsible will be on the plane to South Africa with UEFA's blessing despite the fact they would be better off trying to get to know the guide-dogs they unquestionably need in order to lead a semi-functional life.



Fortunately tomorrow we get to move on to Cheltenham, probably starting with a World hurdle preview but first we are going to allow the powers that be in UEFA the opportunity to inflict even more pain on us. Due to their constant tampering with the format it is slightly harder to be confident that there are any definite anomalies in the first leg of the second round games but logic dictates that there should be. So we will walk on through the storm and get on the draws again in some of the more even games and one or 2 where the stubborn resistance of a minnow might be enough to frustrate one of the big guns.

1 pt draw on the following games:
Ajax v Juve 23/10 (Paddy Power)
Copenhagen v Marseilles 12/5 (bet365)
Hertha v Benfica 12/5 (bet365)
Liverpool v UU 9/2 (Bwin)
Pan v Roma 23/10 (Betfred)

Hmmm!

Not a great start to an epic week of gambing but we will persist and hopefully prevail in the end. Tonight's Arsenal Porto game is being reffed by the only man within 500 miles of Paris not to notice Henry's handball (great to see UEFA's meritocracy system working overtime when it comes to appointing ref's for the big games!). I expect there won't be much for him to notice tonight and rest assured if anything controversial does happen he won't see it so we can quite confidently sell bookings.

Sell booking 1.5pts per card @ 42 (extrabet)

Also 3pts Won in the Dark 10/11 (Paddy Power): Rated 31 pounds better than nearest rival and this is a massive drop in class. Not really sure why she isn't about 1/3.

Time to stand up and bet like a man

OK UEFA have slightly damped my hopes for an all-in gamble fest this week by having half of the CL games next week but there is still a lot to get excited about in the games we do have. Most of the bets that follow stem from the very simple idea that in the first leg of these games very little tends to happen - there are less goals, less bookings, less everything. Less goals means more draws and more draws means more cash for us!

0.2pts Lucky 15 on 4 draws (AC 21/10, Lyon 40/17, Bay 56/19, Porto 11/5 - Bwin.com) Total stake 3 pts.

2pts draw AC v Man U @ 11/5 (Stan James, Tote)
0.5pts 0-0 @ 9.0 (Betfair)
Spread bets will be posted tomorrow when lines are available.

2pts draw Lyon v Real @ 40/17 (Bwin.com)
0.5 pts 0-0 @ 10/1 (sportingbet)
1pt under 2.5 goals @ 1.87 (Betfair)
Spread bets will be posted tomorrow when lines are available.

The Bayern game is one of the few games I'm tempted by a win price - 6's on Fiorentina, i know they are having an indifferent season in Seria A but Bayern really aren't that good despite some of their star names so want to oppose them at all opportunities. That said an Italian team away from home would not regard a nice 0-0 draw as a disaster.

3pts draw @ 3.4 (Betfair)
0.5 pts Fiorentina @8.0 (Betfair)
1.5pts under 2.5 goals 2.02 (Betfair)
0.5pts 0-0 draw @ 13.0 (Betfair)

2pts draw Porto v Arsenal @ 9/4 (Stan James)
0.5 pts 0-0 draw @9.6 (Betfair)

Will hopefully have a few more bets to add to the collection before kick-off so keep an eye out

Denmania

I wish I had the use of both hands to tell you just how retarded this price is. Unfortunately I don't. So you'll just have to trust me that this is a massive over-reaction to one fall. Should be half the price he is. Also you are getting 1.87 on a place!!! If he stands up in Cheltenham he is in the top 3.

2pts e/w Denman 7/2 for the Gold Cup (Lads, Will Hill, VC)

Will have a blog up by Tuesday on how to build a nice war chest for Chelt out of the CL games. After that I will start previewing Chelt race by race so keep an eye out. Also if any of ye are at any of the previews on around home can ye send me on a summary of what is said. Cheltenham doesn't seem to be a big deal in Koh Samui somehow.

2.5pts Birmingham @ 5/2 (Coral): Crazy price when you look at the league position and form of these 2 teams the price should be somewhere around the 7/4 mark maybe even lower.