2pts Soldatino @13/8 (Boyles): Over-priced just because he is French in my opinion. Should be favourite here aginst what looks like fairly limited opposition.
1pt Ireland @ 2.05 (888sport): Seems an over-reaction to last weeks hiding in Paris. We are by far the better team and can overcome the Twickenham atmosphere.
2pts Italy @ 2/1 (Skybet): Not much between these teams and with home advantage this looks a crazy quote on a team that arev very hard to break down.
1pt Birmingham @19/20 (Will Hill): Birmingham are 12 pts clear going into this tie and the prices do not reflect their superiority this season.
2pts 1st half highest scoring half Barca v Malaga @11/5 (totesport): Usual reaons.
1pt e/w Messi to score first @ 3/1 (Paddypower): Basically playing for the evns we get on him scoring anytime.
1pt e/w Ronaldo to score first @ 3/1 (Paddypower): As above.
Saturday, 27 February 2010
Thursday, 25 February 2010
Europa part 2
Just as draws happen more often in the first leg they happen less often in the second legs. The home record of teams in the second leg of these ties is phenomenal at somewhere around 50% if i remember correctly. So....
1.5pts Juve win against Ajax @4/5 (Stan James) - a far superior team with home advantage, should be able to secure the tie early and shut up shop Italian style after the break.
1pt Sporting Lisbon @2.7 (Betfair) - Not too much between these too sides which makes this far too generous especially given the pressure is on them to attack.
1.5pt e/w David Villa to score first @ 5/2 (Ladbrokes) - Villa, Mestalla, 3/10 on the home win..... enough said.
Back to Cheltenham tomorrow!
1.5pts Juve win against Ajax @4/5 (Stan James) - a far superior team with home advantage, should be able to secure the tie early and shut up shop Italian style after the break.
1pt Sporting Lisbon @2.7 (Betfair) - Not too much between these too sides which makes this far too generous especially given the pressure is on them to attack.
1.5pt e/w David Villa to score first @ 5/2 (Ladbrokes) - Villa, Mestalla, 3/10 on the home win..... enough said.
Back to Cheltenham tomorrow!
Wednesday, 24 February 2010
Another Men-tal reaction from the bookies
OK we'llstart with the basics of CL:
2pts Draw CSKA v Sevilla 23/10 (Ladbrokes)
3pts Draw Inter v Chelsea 21/10 (Ladbrokes) - Feb 2002 was the last time Mourinho lost a home game.
Sell booking for 1pt per card in both games at 48 and 40 (extrabet)
OK now onto the Supreme Novices! I mean there is not a lot more that can be said about the beast that is Dunguib - every race he wins unextended winning in fast times against some pretty useful horses. He sluiched in in the Bumper last year and I will be massively surprised if he is not back in the winners enclosure this year. That said why back a horse at odd-on 3 weeks before a race when you can prob get the same price on him on the day. So he is not the horse I'm going to tip up. I think the horse that needs to be backed in this one is Menorah (each-way). He put up a massive performance when destroying Bellvano over Christmas and one of the few horse I expect will actually be in shot when Dunguib crosses the finish line. His jumping can be a bit sloppy at times which is a worry, but 12/1 on the horse who should capitalise if anything goes wrong for Dunguib and 3/1 on this horse making the top 3 is much to big to turn down. This horse was 8/1 last week before getting beaten in a mess of a race at the weekend (went with the leaders who were going way to fast and got caught by Ruby who was smart enough to stay of the pace.) Get me out of here is another classy horse who will be fighting it out for the minor honurs but not in the same league as the first 2. Oscar Whiskey and Blackstairmountain could be anything as it is hard to make a decent assessment based on their facile wins in 2 and 1 starts respectively but probably a little inexperienced to make a proper mark here.
1pt e/w Menorah 12/1 (Lads, PP, WH)
2pts Draw CSKA v Sevilla 23/10 (Ladbrokes)
3pts Draw Inter v Chelsea 21/10 (Ladbrokes) - Feb 2002 was the last time Mourinho lost a home game.
Sell booking for 1pt per card in both games at 48 and 40 (extrabet)
OK now onto the Supreme Novices! I mean there is not a lot more that can be said about the beast that is Dunguib - every race he wins unextended winning in fast times against some pretty useful horses. He sluiched in in the Bumper last year and I will be massively surprised if he is not back in the winners enclosure this year. That said why back a horse at odd-on 3 weeks before a race when you can prob get the same price on him on the day. So he is not the horse I'm going to tip up. I think the horse that needs to be backed in this one is Menorah (each-way). He put up a massive performance when destroying Bellvano over Christmas and one of the few horse I expect will actually be in shot when Dunguib crosses the finish line. His jumping can be a bit sloppy at times which is a worry, but 12/1 on the horse who should capitalise if anything goes wrong for Dunguib and 3/1 on this horse making the top 3 is much to big to turn down. This horse was 8/1 last week before getting beaten in a mess of a race at the weekend (went with the leaders who were going way to fast and got caught by Ruby who was smart enough to stay of the pace.) Get me out of here is another classy horse who will be fighting it out for the minor honurs but not in the same league as the first 2. Oscar Whiskey and Blackstairmountain could be anything as it is hard to make a decent assessment based on their facile wins in 2 and 1 starts respectively but probably a little inexperienced to make a proper mark here.
1pt e/w Menorah 12/1 (Lads, PP, WH)
Tuesday, 23 February 2010
If at first you don't succeed....
OK a solid weekend of football and the mighty David Villa have led a recovery to +16.92pts. Now some of you may have doubted my advice last week as i didn't go into a huge amount of detail so I dug out my spreadsheet which has all the data from 2004 (when the current CL format was adopted) and I can tell you that in the 40 second round 1st leg games before this season 33%of them ended in draws indicating the average draw price should be 2/1 and obviously for cerrtain games it should be even shorter. If you feel that 40 is too small a number to make a definitive judgement on you can add in the first leg result in all CL 2 leg ties and you still get a draw percentage of 33% (the split of wins between home and away changes because unlike in the second roujnd the stronger team is not always away from home). So with those numbers behind us lets plough on and hope for some nice mean reversion this week.
2.5pts Draw Olypiakos v Bordeaux @ 23/10 (Ladbrokes)
1.5pts Draw Barcelona v Stuttgart @4.1 (Betfair)
0.5pts 1-0 Barca 9.2 (Betfair)
Sell bookings for 1.5pts a card @ 40 (extrabet)
0.2pt Lucky 15 draws in all 4 games (23/10, 5/2, 23/10, 21/10) - Ladbrokes
2.5pts Draw Olypiakos v Bordeaux @ 23/10 (Ladbrokes)
1.5pts Draw Barcelona v Stuttgart @4.1 (Betfair)
0.5pts 1-0 Barca 9.2 (Betfair)
Sell bookings for 1.5pts a card @ 40 (extrabet)
0.2pt Lucky 15 draws in all 4 games (23/10, 5/2, 23/10, 21/10) - Ladbrokes
Monday, 22 February 2010
Size fits the bill
The Arkle is a race that has confused me for a while and I'm still not 100% sure I have it completely nailed. I had at one stage decided that it was impossible for any of the horses to win it but obviously something has to so I'll try and take a stab at who will benefit from the other horses failings.
OK lets start with the favourite Capt CB - basically he doesn't jump well enough to win an Arkle, if this was a bumper then maybe I'd be tempted to back him at those prices but the 8 large fences standing between him and victory are enough to put me off. He definitely a classy horse but I just think when he's asked to jump his fences at speed he is too error prone.
Somersby is a horse I really like - I just wish he would skip Cheltenham and go straight to Aintree. I think he prob is a bit better on a flatter track. He might get a little lost coming down the hill only to battle back into a place the way he did in the Supreme last year.
Riverside Theatre prob has the best form of any of these horses, however for some reason I have it in my head that this is a small horse (can somebody confirm or deny this for me please?) In that case the large field would prob not suit the horse and cause it to spend too much energy fighting for position. If it weren't for concerns over size this would be my tip.
If the ground was soft it would bring Sports Line into the equation but I'm sure as always it will turn up Good to Soft for the festival and just be too firm for him to be seen at his best, also if it was to get really soft due to weather back home it could open the door for an unlikely appearance by An Cathaoir Mor and he would take some beating in the mud.
So despite my concerns about backing a horse that has previously had breathing problems at Cheltenham I am going to have to tip up Sizing Europe. His last run over hurdles had him within a couple of lengths of Solwhit and he has done all that was asked of him since going chasing. OK maybe he wouldn't have beaten Capt CB if he had stood up over Christmas but I don't want to bet on CB standing up this time either.
1pt Sizing Europe 13/2 (Paddy Power, Will Hill)
OK lets start with the favourite Capt CB - basically he doesn't jump well enough to win an Arkle, if this was a bumper then maybe I'd be tempted to back him at those prices but the 8 large fences standing between him and victory are enough to put me off. He definitely a classy horse but I just think when he's asked to jump his fences at speed he is too error prone.
Somersby is a horse I really like - I just wish he would skip Cheltenham and go straight to Aintree. I think he prob is a bit better on a flatter track. He might get a little lost coming down the hill only to battle back into a place the way he did in the Supreme last year.
Riverside Theatre prob has the best form of any of these horses, however for some reason I have it in my head that this is a small horse (can somebody confirm or deny this for me please?) In that case the large field would prob not suit the horse and cause it to spend too much energy fighting for position. If it weren't for concerns over size this would be my tip.
If the ground was soft it would bring Sports Line into the equation but I'm sure as always it will turn up Good to Soft for the festival and just be too firm for him to be seen at his best, also if it was to get really soft due to weather back home it could open the door for an unlikely appearance by An Cathaoir Mor and he would take some beating in the mud.
So despite my concerns about backing a horse that has previously had breathing problems at Cheltenham I am going to have to tip up Sizing Europe. His last run over hurdles had him within a couple of lengths of Solwhit and he has done all that was asked of him since going chasing. OK maybe he wouldn't have beaten Capt CB if he had stood up over Christmas but I don't want to bet on CB standing up this time either.
1pt Sizing Europe 13/2 (Paddy Power, Will Hill)
Saturday, 20 February 2010
Same same
OK you know the score on most of these bets already:
2pts 1st half highest scoring half Barca v Racing @ 11/5 (Totesport)
1pt e/w Messi to score first @ 11/4 (general)
2pts David Villa to score first @ 7/2 (bwin.com)
2pts David Villa to score anytime @ 9/10 (bwin.com)
Also a few each way plays on the horse racing;
1pt e/w Spirit of Adjisa 9/1 (paddy Power)
1pt e/w Lush Life 4/1 (Ladbrokes, PP)
1.5pts e/w Politeo 5/1 (Ladbrokes,Tote)
Also can't resist having:
1.5pts on Notre Pere @ 9/4 (Ladbrokes) - has perfect ground for him and I rank him a fair bit better than any of his rivals.
2pts 1st half highest scoring half Barca v Racing @ 11/5 (Totesport)
1pt e/w Messi to score first @ 11/4 (general)
2pts David Villa to score first @ 7/2 (bwin.com)
2pts David Villa to score anytime @ 9/10 (bwin.com)
Also a few each way plays on the horse racing;
1pt e/w Spirit of Adjisa 9/1 (paddy Power)
1pt e/w Lush Life 4/1 (Ladbrokes, PP)
1.5pts e/w Politeo 5/1 (Ladbrokes,Tote)
Also can't resist having:
1.5pts on Notre Pere @ 9/4 (Ladbrokes) - has perfect ground for him and I rank him a fair bit better than any of his rivals.
Thursday, 18 February 2010
Can't hold back the tide
Having watched our profit decimated to +7.42pts this week it is a relieve to return to a bit of horse racing and start the Cheltenham previews. Now it is still a few weeks til the off so feel free to leave comments with your own thoughts or arguements. I should probably start this preview by saying that apart from a handful of races over Christmas i haven't seen any racing this season at all. I am basing my thoughts purely on who the horses have beaten where they have beaten them and how quickly they did it. Hopefully any info I lose from not having seen the races will be counteracted by the lack of noise from over-hyped horses.
OK so going to start with the World Hurdle. It is hard to knock what Big Buck's has achieved - undefeated since the festival 2 years ago winning on all 3 visits to Cheltenham since however this may partly be explained by people's reluctance to keep their horses running 3m hurdles unless they turn out to be top class at them - usually the horses that could compete are sent chasing as in the case of Punchestown last years runner up. BB is the real deal but at 4/6 I would not be in a rush to back him.
Karabak is a top quality horse but he has a nastyu habit of always finding one to good for him, as was the case last year with Mikael d'Haguenet. He was easily held by BB over Christmas and no reason to think thathe will turn that around at Cheltenham.
Tidal Bay is the horse I think provides the value in the race as the horse with a bit of real class and finally back in good form. I don't think it was ever connections long term plan to have this horse run the WH but after a largely disappointing spell chasing he was sent hurdling to freshen himself up and all of a sudden a fast and impressive win over course and distance made this the obvious target. The manner of his Arkle win 2 years ago combined with the time he posted last time out leaves me to believe ther is not much between him and BB. Given TB is available at 9's and that his place price of 9/4 is closer to what I believe his win price should be it is time to get on.
Of the horses at bigger prices 3 stand out for me with not much between them - WOA, Powerstation, and Oscar Dan Dan. Of the 3 if I was to have a little each way on any of them it would probably be Powerstation whp is in reasonable form this year and ran into a place in this last year and was 2nd to Black Jack Ketchem the year before. I would love to see WOA do well and end his career in stlye but he isn't as good over hurdles as he is over fences and I can't see him finding the improvement necessary at this stage in his career. Oscar Dan Dan strikes me as a horse that will love the hill and as the others start to stop he will still be moving throught the field - whether he'll be close enough to the business end of things at that stage is the big question. There are definitely worse 100/1 e/w shots than him.
2pts e/w Tidal Bay(Ladbroke, Paddy Power)
OK so going to start with the World Hurdle. It is hard to knock what Big Buck's has achieved - undefeated since the festival 2 years ago winning on all 3 visits to Cheltenham since however this may partly be explained by people's reluctance to keep their horses running 3m hurdles unless they turn out to be top class at them - usually the horses that could compete are sent chasing as in the case of Punchestown last years runner up. BB is the real deal but at 4/6 I would not be in a rush to back him.
Karabak is a top quality horse but he has a nastyu habit of always finding one to good for him, as was the case last year with Mikael d'Haguenet. He was easily held by BB over Christmas and no reason to think thathe will turn that around at Cheltenham.
Tidal Bay is the horse I think provides the value in the race as the horse with a bit of real class and finally back in good form. I don't think it was ever connections long term plan to have this horse run the WH but after a largely disappointing spell chasing he was sent hurdling to freshen himself up and all of a sudden a fast and impressive win over course and distance made this the obvious target. The manner of his Arkle win 2 years ago combined with the time he posted last time out leaves me to believe ther is not much between him and BB. Given TB is available at 9's and that his place price of 9/4 is closer to what I believe his win price should be it is time to get on.
Of the horses at bigger prices 3 stand out for me with not much between them - WOA, Powerstation, and Oscar Dan Dan. Of the 3 if I was to have a little each way on any of them it would probably be Powerstation whp is in reasonable form this year and ran into a place in this last year and was 2nd to Black Jack Ketchem the year before. I would love to see WOA do well and end his career in stlye but he isn't as good over hurdles as he is over fences and I can't see him finding the improvement necessary at this stage in his career. Oscar Dan Dan strikes me as a horse that will love the hill and as the others start to stop he will still be moving throught the field - whether he'll be close enough to the business end of things at that stage is the big question. There are definitely worse 100/1 e/w shots than him.
2pts e/w Tidal Bay(Ladbroke, Paddy Power)
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