Tus maith!

OK by my reckoning a good start to the festival has pushed profits up to +57.78pts even if it was all downhill after the second. We did miss out on some profit by forgetting about the CL last night but hopefully we can put that right today.

Cheltenham:
Already advised;
1.5pts e/w Big Zeb

It's a tricky but interesting card today. I won't be having a bet on every race but I'll give you my thoughts on all of them in case you are. The biggest edge we have today is that Will Hill are paying 2 market moves over the SP on any winning Irish horse. So a 5/2 shot pays 3/1, 7/2 pays 9/2 etc. So we could just back all short priced Irish horses with them and put up a SP lay on Betfair and count the cash. I'll prob be a bit more selective due to the logistics of moving all that cash about.

NH Chase:
No massive opinions on this race tbh except to that I don't like the favourite Sychronized. A case can be made for any of the next 4 in the market. I did have a tiny bit e/w on Becauseicouldn'tsee at 12s because it has a real jockey up but that price is long gone. If i had to get involved at the current prices it would be Nina or Abbeybraney but I think I'll sit this one out.

RSA Hurdle:
3pts Quel Espirit to place @ 13/8 (Ladbrokes)
1pt Some Present to place @ 8.6 (Betfair)
1pt Quel Espirit to win SP (Will Hill)

Sure Rite of Passage has looked impressive but has yet to really find himself in a race and hasn't really beaten a lot to date. Quel Espirit rana cracker in Cork earlier in the year and although a little disappointing the last time out he prob wasn't at 100% with this race being the target all year. 13/8 looks massive on the place and as an Irish trained horse the Will Hill bonus looks good on the win part. Some Present has run some decent races behind Dunguib and the under-rated Fionngas, people have over-reacted to a poor run over Christmas at Leopardstown despite him beating several of the same horses since. The 33s to win is slightly tempting but I'm happy enough to stick to a small wager on him running into a place.

RSA Chase:
This is an awkward race because I can't bring myself to tip up either of the 2 best horses in the race. Long Run probably should have run in the Arkle yesterday - not because as other people suggested he is better over 2m than 3m but purely as a learning experience for next year when he is taking on Denman for the Gold Cup - I feel horses will learn a lot more running in a lightening fast 2m Novice race than they will stepping stright up to 3m. If you can jump fences at Arkle pace you can jump them at any pace, you don't necessarily learn as much from running in the RSA chase. I backed this horse at 5s just before the injury scare for Punchestown and I still think he is the most likely winner so long as his sprint around Warwick the last day hasn't taken too much out of him. 5/2 is a reasonable price on him and I would rather back that than Punchestown or Diamond Harry - perhaps later in the day when he drifts because people don't know a huge amount about him (being French and all!) he could be worth getting involved with again.
Punchestown has too much against him to be backed here. Apart from not being the best horse in the race he's had an injury scare and might still be feeling the effects of a deceptively hard race against Tchio Polos 5 weeks ago. Enough negatives to avoid backing a horse that will prob be backed into favourite by the off.
Diamond Harry is another horse who could have done without his last race. Found wanting last year and if he repeats his 3rd this year he will be doing well.
Citizen Vic was the horse I wanted to put up but having his 4th run since 20th Jan I'm beginning to wonder if he has any connection to Joe Lively.
Which leaves us with the old reliable Weapon's Amnesty - prob only about the 5th best horse in this race but has had a proper preparation and has a course win under his belt. Not looking to get overly commited but could do worse than take advantage of WH generousity on this one.

0.75pts e/w Weapons Amnesty @SP (WH)

Champion Chase:
I've already given my thoughts on this but as the bookies insist on disagreeing I'll get involved again Big Zeb is about 10s at the moment which mean WH will pay 12s SP so
1.5pts e/w Big Zeb @SP (WH)

Coral Cup:
If you don't have better things to do on Paddys Day than wade through these 28 horse looking for a winner you should probably try leaving the house once in a while. Just to keep an interest though despite about a million reasons not to back him it should be remembered that Racing Demon was 2nd over C+D here in the RSA Hurdle 5 years ago and is carrying 10-9. At 50/1 what the hell might as well have a nibble. Also should hopefully start a bigger price as Lads are 66s but only paying 4 places.
0.5pts e/w Racing Demon @ 50/1 (PP, Boyles)

Fred Winter:
I honestly had not heard of a single one of these horse before I opened this race. Is Open Day a little over-priced at 14s? I really don't know.

Bumper:
Wait until near the off and then back the one's at the top of the market with WH. Will be a few movers in this near the off as a gamble builds.

1pt Olympiakos @13/2 (VC): Draw is way too short at 3/1 in this game and the value looks to be in the away win at 13/2 - Olympiakos have been consistently under-rated this season and are a stronger outfit than people give credit for.

2pts 4-6 cards in both games. Evns for each game (WH)

It Begins!

Finally the wait is over and Cheltenham is here. Now I've covered most of the main races already in my previews so I'll leave them out today. That leaves 3 posers to try and figure out on the first day so we'll start with the ladies and see what we can find.

Having originally been trying to figure out what horse would come 3rd in this race I nearly gave up after coming to the conclusion that none of them were good enough to place. That being the case I don't think it is any harm to look at last years 3rd Aura About You who is a big price to run into a place again this year. Normally I would never back a horse having it's seasonal debut but in such a weak race in depth anything close to last years run should see her cover the airfare for her owners. Sway has class but has fallen the last twice, Zarinava needs a flat track and 2m, No One tells Me is slightly flattered by how close she was to VdV at Christmas and Easter Legend just doesn't have the form in the book in my opinion.

In the match between the 2 main contenders I think it is unfair to judge VdV based on a run against Go Native when he clearly needed the run and wasn't going to be beaten around by Carberry. Leaving that aside when you consider Quevega's run here last year and subsequent 3rd to Solwhit at Punchestown she is in my opinion the classier animal. The big downside is the fact that is is her debut. I know no horse has won a Grade 1 on their debut after Christmas for over 20 years - I know this is a grade 2 but.... So I am very tentatively going to side VdV
1pt Aura About You to place 17/2 (Paddy Power)
1pt Voler de Vedette @ 3.2 (Betfair)

In the cross country chase you have to applaud the 10 horse who have turned up with zero chance of featuring to enable us to bet 1/4 odds on 4 places. Only 6 horses worth mentioning here.
Garde Champetre is hard to oppose since falling the first time around this course the only time this horse has been beaten here was when Davy Russell managed to find a short cut (and even then he nearly lost). Weight seems largely irrelevant in this race and a few extra pounds seems unlikely to halt him again.
L'ami is a consistent performer who continues to play second fiddle to stablemate GC. Should place again but of no massive interest bettingwise.
Sizing Australia is a young horse who is gradually edging closer to the favourite at each attempt. Would seem certain to feature and is definitely worth getting on side in one way or another.
Another Jewel is another young horse who picked up a similar race in Punchestown - will be interesting to see how he deals will Cheltenhams different challenge but cannot be written off.
Silver Birch is consistent over these fences but always falls just short and likely to be a similar story again - won't be disgraced but 5th or 6th seems to beckon.
Monkerhostin fills the role of the big name horse that should but doesn't beat a lot of inferior rivals due to not handling the different course. Same Same.

3pt Garde Champetre @ 9/4 (Will Hill)
1pt Sizing Australia @ 7.4 (Betfair)
2pts place Sizing Australia @ 1.97 (Betfair)
1pt e/w Another Jewel @14/1 (VC, Paddy Power)

And so that brings us to the last race of the first day or the 3rd for those of you looking at the races in chronological order. And for once the bookies more or less seem to have it right. The top 4 in the market are all deserving of their place their and although I expect to see plenty of fallers in this race the only value I can find is the bookies who are kindly paying 5 places instead of 4. As this is the case I see no harm in having a little e/w on the favourite who should jump better today in a race run at a proper pace.
1.5pts e/w Bensalem @ 11/2 (888sport)

Back on Track

OK going to start this weekends wrap in the unusual spot of Doha for the World Indoor Champs. The bookies seem to underestimate the edge you have on an indoor track over 400m if you can get drawn in the outside 2 lanes. If you are drawn wide you take the 2 turns before the break less tightly than those inside you. This allows you build up momentum and means that when the beak comes at the 200m mark you should be able to have taken a lead which due to the nature of the track is harder to pull back than in your standard outdoor 400m race.



3pts Jackson to win Mens 400m @ evens (Paddy Power): Irelands David Gillick is kind of making the market here. It is unfortunate for him that he had to check his stride going into the 3rd bend in yesterdays semi-final - something which cost him 1st in his heat (just) and landed him in lane 3 denying him what would have been a favourites chance at gold here. Jackson is no certainty but with a nice outside draw you would fancy this hurdler to take full advantage and get a good position off the break leaving a lot to do for the other challengers.



3pts Debbie Dunn to the Womens 400m @ 11/10 (Boyles): barely broke a sweat winning her semi last night and with 3 400m races in 2 days that combined with her nice draw makes this bet irresistable.



1pt e/w Are You the One in 1.05 Limerick @ 7/2 (Paddy Power): can take advantage of any weakness this very highly hyped favourite has



1pt e/w King Edmund in 4.15 Sandown @ 5/1 (Sportingodds): Both him and the favourite are classy horses who lost nithing in defeat against Long Run and Punchestown respectively the last time out. I think the bare 2 miles will suit King Edmund better with Tchico Polos racing over longer recently. Also there is value in the race due to the prominence of Joe Jo Star in the betting based on him beating King Edmind the last day - however KE was beaten because he fought with Long Run for so oong and eventually paid the price. My main concern would actually be that after only 4 weeks this race is coming too soon after such a hard race for our selection, however as most of his rivals are in similar situations we will overlook that this once.



1.5pts Burnley @7/5 (totesport, Coral): I think the true price here should be about 11/10 - 6/5. Both teams have the same amount of points and every point in games like this is crucial to both sides. Burnley have relied on their home form to ensure there is still some hope of surviving at this stage and they can prevail again at home.

1pt Aston Villa @ 2.44 (Betfair): Very slightly too big a price on a Villa team with a lot more to play for than a dogged Stoke team that seem to be secure from relegation. With Man City and Liverpool not playing until tomorrow Villa will need to turn their games in hand into points to keep up the pressure on the other teams in the fight for 4th.

1pt Blackburn @ 8/1 (VC): I really am in two minds as to whether to back Rovers or lay Spurs. The 4/9 on Spurs seems very short especially given their injury worries. Whichever you prefer yourself I would suggest but Spurs need to be opposed. I am going to go with a Rovers win and hope for the scoop!

1.5pts Birmingham @ 9/4 (VC): People seem to have over-reacted to Everton's good form and Birmingham's slump. Nothing between these sides in the table, nothing major between them on goal diff (a very good indicator of false positions in the table) so why are B'ham 9/4 at home? Take a chance that Everton won't be scoring for fun again and that B'ham can grind out another result.

2pts Draw - Sevilla v Depor @ 11/4 (Boyles, Hills, tote): 5th v 6th promises to be a tight affair. With goals at a premium this looks much too big on these sides playing out a stalemate. The 5/1 on Depor edging it is also slightly tempting but we'll stick all our cash on the draw here as the best value.

1pt e/w Higuain to score first @ 7/2 (Skybet): Despite his heroic efforts not to deliver midweek, we will give him a chance to redeem himself against a team with 5 goals and 4 points in the last 10 games.

1pt Wales @ 5.0 (Betfair): I think Ireland will just about win this but the difference in prices is much too big. Result have been a harsh reflection on the Welsh performances so far and I expect they will give us a proper game today. As for the other game I'm sure there are re-runs of Neighbours or Judge Judy on that will allow you avoid watching that misery.

4pts Denman w/o Kauto @ 7/4 (Celtic): Lunacy - has somebody cut off one of Denmans legs without it making the headlines?

Clarification

Ok another good night see our overall profits hit the +47.21pts. Just to clarify on the Arsenal game though. Just because I assume that the overall split of results is 60:20:20 doesn't mean I think this applies in each game. It was just that Arsenal were 4/6 (60% prob) to win the game according to the bookies and I was relatively happy with this assessment. If anything the bookies may put the home team in these ties slightly bigger than they should due to underestimating the home advantage. If Arsenal are better than a 4/6 shot that would hav had a negative impact on our Porto win bet but a positive impact on our lay of the draw. Given that we laid the draw for more than we backed Porto any error should work in our favour overall.

So on to tonight....

2pts Man Utd @ 1.78 (Betfair): Man Utd are the better team here and with home advantage and Rooney back I think they should be much shorter. Granted they don't have to go for the win but I still think they are unlikely to sit back until the last 10 mins at which stage if it's still 0-0 Milan will need 2 goals to progress.

0.5pts Lyon @ 10/1 (VC): I fully expect Real to win this game but I can't get away from thinking that Lyon have to have more than a 9% chance of victory. I think people actually over-emphasise how strong Real are at home. OK they have a 100% record there in the league (thanks to only playing Sevilla out of the top teams - which as you'll know they nearly messed up) and they did lose to a late Pato goal in their toughest CL tie. I think the longer it remains scoreless the higher the chances are that Lyon can catch them on the break.

0.5pts e/w Higuain to score first @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes): If Real do deliver as expected it could be wise to side with Higuain as first goalscorer. He may not grab as many headlines as Ronaldo but his record in front of goal is just as impressive this season. In a game where the total goals line is about 3.1 the each way part of this looks particularly attractive.

On the cards front the referees tonight are both very calm and sensible ref's so we will only play at reduced stakes - however it can't be ignored that 13 of the last 18 R16 2nd leg ties would have collected on this bet so:

1pt 4-6 Cards - Man U v Milan @5/4
1pt 4-6 cards - Real v Lyon @ 19/20

Just a quick note on Cheltenham:
1pt e/w Denman @ 4/1 (Will Hill): We backed him already at 7/2. At an even bigger price I can't resist adding to the stake.

OK a disappointing performance on the Spanish football took a bit of the shine of a pretty successful weekend where we pushed our profits to +38.22pts. Champions League tonight! In the second leg of these ties the home team have averaged roughly a 60% strike rate over the last 5 years. The split between draws and away wins is a little less certain with R16 games having a 18:22 split but overall having a 23:17 split. It seems as if away wins get less and less likely as the tournament progresses (no away team has won a semi final second leg since the CL adopted this format). However I am not confident there is really enough data so suggest that this is statisically significant and so I am working off the assumption that the H:D:A split is roughly 60:20:20

This being the case:

2.5pts Fiorentina @ 15/8 (bet365): I thought they were under-rated for the first round clash and they continue to be under-rated. They were very unlucky to be beaten the last day and Bayern continue to be judged on their team sheet and not their performances. At home we have to side with the Italians here.

Lay to lose 3 pts Draw @ 4.0 Arsenal v Porto (Betfair): A finely balanced tie but the stats suggest that the draw should be about 5.0 and Porto should be a similar price.

0.5pts Porto @ 6.4 (Betfair): see above

Also as far as I can remember from my spreadsheet last night the bookings make up for these games averages about 51.5pts. I also seem to remember that only 2 games in the last 2 years made up at less than 40. This would suggest that totals are clustered around the 40-60 mark with a coouple of outliers so....

2pts 4-6 cards in each game. Both at 19/20 (Will Hill)

Saturday Football

It's Saturday which means some bookie somewhere is doing something stupid again! Since most of the good horses are wrapped up until Cheltenham it's all football today.



1.5pts Bolton @ 4/1 (Boyles, VC): There is only 1 point between these 2 sides in the league so to have the Hammers shorter than 4/5 does not make sense. They should be out around the 5/4 mark but it does leave a nice juicy price on Bolton to get a few points further away from the relegation dogfight.

2pts Under 2.5 goals Man Utd v Wolves (general): Looks like Rooney won't start and Owen is also out. Hard to see where the goals will come from here with Utd so reliant on Rooney this season.

1.5pts Wolves +2 @4/5 (Sportingbet): I was originally going to just lay Utd. But in the past they have developed a talent for squeeking these games when it counts. Wolves losing by a single goal wouldn't be a massive surprise

2.5pts Portsmouth @13/8 (Lads): This price won't last long so maybe take your stake down a 1/2 pt if you don't get it. The seige mentality should see Portsmouth start to play to their ability now as all these players will be looking for new employers in the next few months. Birmingham might just be starting to get a bit burned out as their reliance on the same 11 players starts to take its toll. Expect an electric atmosphere and at least some of the gloom around Fratton Park to be lifted at least temporarily

3pts Aston Villa @ 5/6 (VC): Maybe there is a reason why a team that is fighting for a champions league spot is 5/6 against a team fighting against relegation in the Championship but I sure as hell don't know what it is. Get on!

2.5pts e/w David Villa to score first @ 10/3 (Will Hill): you know the score at this stage.

1pt Sevilla @ 15/2 (Tote): 2nd v 4th - should the home team really be a 4/9 shot? I don't think so. If Real do win this they will know they were in a game. I wouldn't put people off backing the draw either but I just think there is slightly better value in hoping for an upset here.

Champion Chase + PP Madness

A nice easy race to dissect by comparison with some. I suppose it is only fair to start with the best horse in the race - Master Minded. Rated the best chaser in training after his romp here 2 years ago when he destroyed Voy Por by about 18Ls he has never really reached those heights since despite adding a second Champion last year. Nicholls claims that he is finally coming back to the form of 2 years ago and even without quite reaching those levels its not hard to see why he is as short as 4/5. However there are doubts over just how well he has recovered and although he wasn't overly extended the last day I'm never too happy to see a 2m chaser run within a month of Cheltenham.

Kalahari King is a mystery to me as to why he is where he is in the betting. Best of a very limited rest against Twist Magic at sandown before a comfortable win in a Class 2 handicap makes him second fav for the Champion Chase??

Twist Magic has raced at Cheltenham 3 times. He's fallen twice and the one time he stood up he was 6th of 8 beaten a full 52Ls by Master Minded. There are more deserving charities in Haiti and Chile for people to go giving away their money betting on this guy.

Big Zeb is one horse who can give the favourite a race (if he stands up). He would have beaten him last year at Punchestown apart from trying to demolish the last and going down by a head. Although he did fall last year it is worth remebering that English fences are easier to jump than Irish fences and is also going over fresh unlike when flopping in the Tingle Creek.

Of the rest Forpadytheplasterer always seems to find someone better than him and doesn't quite seem to have the class for this although the race wil be run to suit. Petit Robin is perhaps slightly over-priced at 20/1 given he put in a good show last year when losing 2nd on the run-in and had a good win over Christmas before finding flat track specialist TM too good for him in Ascot the last day. I expect a big run for 3rd or 4th. Might hold off and back him on the day for a place.

1.5pts e/w Big Zeb 8/1 (Will Hill)

I have just been alerted to PP insane MBS on the Supreme Novices. Get as much cash as possible down on this race with them on anything but the favourite (obviously don't have any docket for more than e300 as that would be stupid)