Carnage

Ok a horrendous week of football results brings us all the way back down to +80.26pts and I'm going to knock off the 10pts for Pompey getting relegated now before I forget to get all the pain out of the way and leave us a clear run at Aintree. So +70.26pts is where we stand.

1.5pts Man Utd @ 2.84 (Betfair): Obviously losing Rooney is a blow but the market seems to have massively overreacted to this. With Rooney in the line up I make Utd about a 11/10 - 6/5 shot. That they could be so much bigger has to as a result of being over-hyped even though it will be no surprise if this ends in a draw which will suits Utd much more than Chelsea.

2pts Villa @ 13/8 (Ladbrokes): 19 more pts with a game less played too much emphasis is on current form than on what these sides have done this season. Expect a reaction to their humiliation against Chelsea today.

3pts Torres to score at anytime @ 6/5 (Coral): Has averaged about a goal a game in the league this season. This is a massive value price. This is as short as 1/2 in places.

1pt 1st half to be highest scoring half Barca v Bilboa @ 11/5 (tote): Barca have scored more first half league goals than any other team. Although Bilboa might end up being a tougher game than the 1/5 suggests if Barca get an early goal this could easily be over by HT.

1pt e/w Messi to score first @ 5/2 (Paddy Power): the 5/6 we get here on Messi getting one of th first 5 goals is too big to resist even if there is no value in the win part of the bet.

1.5pts e/w David Villa to score first @ 11/4 (888sport): you know the story at this stage.

1pt e/w Higuain to score first @ 10/3 (Skybet): 23 games 23 goals and everyone keeps talking about Ronaldo - take advantage of the hype to get value here.

2pts Gijon @ 4/5 (888sport): At home against a team that is almost relegated and is 14pts below them. Should consolidate their midtable position here.

2.5pts Real Madrid clean sheet @ 5/4 (Skybet): Found a few useful facts on Opta on this one: Racing have won only one of their last 10 league games, and have failed to score a single goal in seven of these. At home, Miguel Ángel Portugal's side are winless in their last six games of La Liga, and have not scored in the last four.

OK ended up with a lot more than I thought I would today. I won't be near a computer tomorrow so just having a quick look at the Powers Gold Cup.

For once the bookies more or less have it right. I think Zaarito is the best horse and he should be fresh enough after all the F's in his form to take this down so long as he stays up not sure I'd want to get overly involved at 5/2 though

Variance works both ways!

Not going to abandon my assertion that draws are over priced in 1st leg games despite another disappointing week - in poker sometimes the fish have to win to keep them coming back. The same applies in sports betting.SO...

2pts Draw Benfica v Liverpool @ 23/10 (Ladbrokes)
2pts Draw Fulham v Wolfsburg @ 5/2 (Ladbrokes)
2pts Draw Hamburf v Liege @ 4.3 (Betfair)
2pts Draw Valencia v Athletico @ 3.8 (Betfair)

0.25pts Yankee - 4 Draws Ladbrokes (23/10, 5/2, 3/1, 5/2)

1pt Gerrard to score anytime @ 3/1 (extrabet); Has a phemonenal European scoring record and is way to big here.

Sell bookings points for 0.15pts per point @ 38 (Sportingindex)

Spreads for tonight

OK we are back to +98.54pts after Rooney and Brych delivered last night although it is not often I am disappointed to see Man U concede a last minute goal.
Tonight again we have a pretty reasonable ref in the Arsenal Barcelona game. I also think with all the talk of a game of free flowing football and the goals Barca have been scoring recently the total goals line for this game has been pushed too high. Average goals fro a game like this is about 2.2 and even allowing for this game to be a bit on the high side a spread of 2.8-3 seems too big.

Sell booking points 0.15pts per point @ 36 (sportingindex)
Sell total goals 1pt per goal @ 2.8 (sportingindex)

Draw some comfort

Pretty poor weekend but there is plenty of European football this week to get us over that hiccup. As in the last round we will be concentrating on the tendancy for more draws in the first legs of these ties:

0.3pt Yankee Draw in each CL QF (23/10, 9/4, 12/5, 3/1 - Coral)
3pts Draw Lyon v Brodeaux @9/4 (tote, Coral) - looks the most evenly matched game and given the high proportion of draws in the French league anyway this looks massive.
2pts Draw Bayern v Man Utd @ 23/10 (tote, Coral) - a score draw would probably suit both sides. United will want to get an away goal and despite their limitations Bayern at home are always a tough prospect especially given some of the individual talent they have.
2pts Draw Arsenal v Barcelona @ 12/5 (Coral) - not going to be the cavalier goal fest that people expect - Barcelona can grind out results when necessary and Guardiola knows a draw is a good resilt to bring home with the second leg in the Camp Nou.
2pts Draw Inter v CSKA @ 4.7 (Betfair) - Inter are way too short here. CSKA do not get the credit they deserve and have turned into a decent team the past few seasons. Also since the Chelsea game Inter have been on a rotten run of form.

First leg games also have less bookings than average and although the referee in the Utd game is relatively card happy Brych who refs the Lyon game has reffed 13 games at UEFA and FIFA level during which he has issued a paltry 21 yellows and 1 red. I assume the line is only so high as it is being priced as a derby game.

Sell bookings @ 44 for 0.3pts a card (Sporting Index)

0.75pts e/w Wayne Rooney to score first @ 4/1 (Paddy Power) - has carried the Utd team this season and if they do get the win the bookies expect it's likely he will be on the scoresheet. Add in the PP special that if Utd come from behind to win they will refund you bet - also I think they are paying double odds if he scores twice but I'm not 100% on that.

Weekend Racing

Dubai World Cup takes centre stage this week - the biggest grandstand in the world for one of the smallest tracks in the world! You go figure - sure to make for a few surprises as it rewards position rather than talent. But we'll try to pick a few winners none the less.

1pt win Vision d'Etat @ 7.6 (Betfair): a very good HK Cup winner. The doubts over his participation are obviously a worry but at this price we will gladly take it.

1.5pts Rocket Man @ 9/4 (Betfred): This horse is the business. The Godolphin/Frankie presence on Gayego is making value all around here. This is the most likely to take advantage.

1pt e/w Courageous Cat @ 12/1 (general): Connections aren't worried about Previs's wide draw but I sure as hell am. On a tight track like this he will have to do a lot of extra work to get to the front. As a result CC can take advantage having run a cracking race at the Breeders Cup to get within 1/2L of Goldikova. He has a reasonable draw here and can take advantage.

1pt e/w Gitano Hernando 5/1 (Ladbrokes): Not a superstar just a very good horse and can be a danger here with a good draw and a tendancy to show early.

1pt win Calusa Crystal @ 3/1 (Lads, VC): Warmed up for this with a facile win in Warwik a fortnight ago - unlike her main oppostion who ran a very good but tough race coming second to Quevega at Cheltenham over hurdles.

That race is off soon so will post update of later races in a few mins

OK just one to add
1pt Watson Lake 9/2 (WH): The only horse here that has really been kept fresh for this and can get his reward. Has run to a reasonable level for a long time without ever challenging the big boys but good enough to take advantage of a few tired performances here.

Weekend Soccer

Wheels came off midweek but a Villa goals just kept us above the double mark at +100.56pts. Two things to mention before I start. Firstly I was wrong about goal difference being a deciding factor in La Liga which could be key to some betting decisions in later weeks (in the case of a tie head to head is the deciding factor.) Also although I haven't put a huge amount of betfair prices on here I have been allocating full credit in the case of a win ignoring commission - in future the max commission of 5% will be deducted to winnings.

1.5pts Stoke @ 4.0 (Betfair): They are 9pts clear with a game in hand of a West Ham team who are looking a shambles and at this stage you have to think the players just want to end the drama and get themselves a new boss - ignore David Gold's 'vote of confidence' and expect to see Zola down the dole office on Thursday.

1pt Everton 11/10 (general): 17pts clear of Wolves and finally starting to build a bit of momentum. They have scored nearly twice as many goals as Wolves this season and that can be decisive today.

2pts Sevilla @ 12/5 (VC): Despite their recent slump Sevilla are still 8pts clear of Villareal. A change in coach can see them regain the winning thread.

1pt Draw Chelsea v Villa @ 5.2(Betfair): Chelsea cannot be 2/5 for a game against another team fighting for a CL spot however the fact that M. O'Neill has never won a PL game in March - EVER does slightly put us off backing Villa. It is obviously a statistical anomaly but there could be some truth in it when you consider that O'Neill always tends to be working with small squads of players that over -perform for large parts of the season and then perhaps hit a wal due to lack of rotation. Having eliminated both other options I guess it makes sense to have a small interest in Villa grinding out another draw at big odds.

Weekend racing to follow

Double It!

We've finally doubled our cash breaing through to +105.23pts to date. Some midweek football today:

1pt Man City @ 2.14 (Betfair): Pretty marginal call but 8pts more with one game less played make City slight value here. This is a true test of whether they have what it takes to grab that final CL place.

0.5pts e/w Tevez to score first @ 9/2 (Paddy Power): I was just going to back him to score anytime but PP are currently paying double odds if you selection score twice, triple for a hat-trick etc. By my rough calculations he has scored in 12 of his last 18 games (18goals in total). H ehas only scored 1st on 3 occasions but the value on the special plus the 6/4 we are getting on him scoring anytime makes this a play.

1pt Tevez to score anytime @7/5 (expect): see above

1pt Birmingham @ 3/1 (Coral): 9pts adirft of them in the league and best price of 11/10? Not for me. Brimingham have benefited from being tight at the back this season and can grind out another result here at a nice price.

1pt 1st half to be highest scoring half - Barca v Osasuna @ 21/10 (sportingodds): Our usual play when Barca play someone from the bottom half of the table at home. We have reduced our stake due to the fact that with goal difference all thats splitting the top 2 there may be no easing off if Barca start to score early.

1.5pts e/w Messi to score first @ 5/2(Will Hill): best price of 4/7 to score anytime however with this bet we get 5/6 on that eventuality (well one of the first 5 goals anyway).

1pt e/w David Villa to score first @ 5/2 (Paddy Power): taking a slightly worse price than SJ for the special offer if he scores more than one.