2pts Cardiff @ evns: You are getting evens on what is arguably the best team in the Championship playing arguably the worst - get on.
0.5pts e/w Bothroyd to score first @11/2 (bet365): 11 goals in 16 games for far this season and should get plenty of chances today especially with Bellamy back in support
Saturday, 13 November 2010
Saturday Gamble part 2
0.75pts e/w Ballyfitz @ 12/1(bet365, Lads) 1.55 Cheltenham; Runs well fresh and is of an 8lb lower mark than when he came 4th in the Paddy Power last year. Jumping is as ever a concern but a leading contenders and def worth a bet at this price.
0.5pts e/w Any Currency @8/1 (Bet365) 1.55 Cheltenham: Has alight racing weight here and the trainer has already got a run into him this season. 4th in the marathon event here at the festival so no stamina concerns. Is a worthy favourite for this event.
2pts Long Run @ 7/2 (bet365) 2.35 Cheltenham: Will need to be quick to get this price. Very classy horse who was undone at the festival last season by a combination of his trainer taking too long to decide what his target race should be, a really fast run in the race previous to the festival and of course running against a horse that is always better at Chelt than anywhere else (Weapons Amnesty)
1pt e/w Mad Max @ 9/1 (bet365, Paddy Power); Both these bookies are paying 5 places so I couldn't resist also backing Hendersons second string. A phenomenal horse who prob won't be seen at his best here. Can be difficult for horses as big as this to deal with downhills but has run creditably here in the past so not hard to see him making the frame.
I'll post this now to let you get on the Long Run bet - part 3 to come
0.5pts e/w Any Currency @8/1 (Bet365) 1.55 Cheltenham: Has alight racing weight here and the trainer has already got a run into him this season. 4th in the marathon event here at the festival so no stamina concerns. Is a worthy favourite for this event.
2pts Long Run @ 7/2 (bet365) 2.35 Cheltenham: Will need to be quick to get this price. Very classy horse who was undone at the festival last season by a combination of his trainer taking too long to decide what his target race should be, a really fast run in the race previous to the festival and of course running against a horse that is always better at Chelt than anywhere else (Weapons Amnesty)
1pt e/w Mad Max @ 9/1 (bet365, Paddy Power); Both these bookies are paying 5 places so I couldn't resist also backing Hendersons second string. A phenomenal horse who prob won't be seen at his best here. Can be difficult for horses as big as this to deal with downhills but has run creditably here in the past so not hard to see him making the frame.
I'll post this now to let you get on the Long Run bet - part 3 to come
Saturday Gamble
OK going to be quick before the early kick off and racing start - this is part 1 of 2
1pt Aston Villa @ 5.9 (Betfair): Should be 7/2 and even though Villa haven't been playing very well neither have Man Utd. Man Utd have been poor especially on the road this season and have to be opposed at odds-on here.
2pts West Ham @ 10/11 (Paddy Power, Lads): Blackpool have set themselves up for a season of heroic failure. West Ham are gradually starting to find their feet after a very slow start. I do have concerns about their confidence but they have by far the better players and I had them down as about a 4/6 shot.
2pts Man City @ 4/9: Continue to be underestimated by the bookies
0.25pts e/w Pena Dorada @ 33/1 (bet365)
0.25pts e/w Zakeeeta @ 20.0 and 5.3 (Betfair) 12.50 Cheltenham: A few bookies have the 33s but not all are paying 1/4 the odds for a place so be sure to check that out. I think the top 2 in the market are over-hyped and so I am having small interests in 2 of the outsiders who have made decent starts to their hurdling careers.
1pt Aston Villa @ 5.9 (Betfair): Should be 7/2 and even though Villa haven't been playing very well neither have Man Utd. Man Utd have been poor especially on the road this season and have to be opposed at odds-on here.
2pts West Ham @ 10/11 (Paddy Power, Lads): Blackpool have set themselves up for a season of heroic failure. West Ham are gradually starting to find their feet after a very slow start. I do have concerns about their confidence but they have by far the better players and I had them down as about a 4/6 shot.
2pts Man City @ 4/9: Continue to be underestimated by the bookies
0.25pts e/w Pena Dorada @ 33/1 (bet365)
0.25pts e/w Zakeeeta @ 20.0 and 5.3 (Betfair) 12.50 Cheltenham: A few bookies have the 33s but not all are paying 1/4 the odds for a place so be sure to check that out. I think the top 2 in the market are over-hyped and so I am having small interests in 2 of the outsiders who have made decent starts to their hurdling careers.
Saturday, 30 October 2010
Satur
2pts Tidal Bay 11/4 - 2.50 Wetherby: This horse should be favourite here. On a line of form through Big Bucks everyone else has a bit to find on him. He's a very classy horse who has still put in some decent displays over the last 2 years despite not being at his best.
0.75pts e/w Knockara Beau @ 10/1(Lads, bet365, WH) - 3.25 Wetherby: There are no superstars in this and KB is the horse most likely to be improveing after a good end to last season including a 4th in the RSA behind Weapons Amnesty.
0.5pts e/w Don't Pay the Ferryman @ 8/1 (Boyles) - 5.10 Wetherby: Nice e/w value on a decent horse in this 16 runner handicap.
2pts Othermix @ 7/2 - Ascot 2.25 - Should be clear favourite here. Was second in the Jewson at the end of last season where he had China Rock behind. Previously had won G3 and placed in G1 hurdles over in France. Only a matter of time before getting the win he deserves over fences.
1pt King Edmund 13/2 (Stan James): Great novice chaser last season who made the frame on every completed start winning 3/5.
1.5pts Catch Me 7/2 (paddy Power): This is a 2 horse race that I expect Capt CB to win but 7/2 is way too big for a horse this good in a match bet.
0.75pts e/w Knockara Beau @ 10/1(Lads, bet365, WH) - 3.25 Wetherby: There are no superstars in this and KB is the horse most likely to be improveing after a good end to last season including a 4th in the RSA behind Weapons Amnesty.
0.5pts e/w Don't Pay the Ferryman @ 8/1 (Boyles) - 5.10 Wetherby: Nice e/w value on a decent horse in this 16 runner handicap.
2pts Othermix @ 7/2 - Ascot 2.25 - Should be clear favourite here. Was second in the Jewson at the end of last season where he had China Rock behind. Previously had won G3 and placed in G1 hurdles over in France. Only a matter of time before getting the win he deserves over fences.
1pt King Edmund 13/2 (Stan James): Great novice chaser last season who made the frame on every completed start winning 3/5.
1.5pts Catch Me 7/2 (paddy Power): This is a 2 horse race that I expect Capt CB to win but 7/2 is way too big for a horse this good in a match bet.
Friday, 29 October 2010
Weekend Football
Quick football blog with racing to follow in the morning:
Lay Arsenal @1.2 Betfair -liability 1 pt: Arsenal are too short here for the London derby. Should be closer to 2/7. West Ham are not as bad as their results suggest and can frustrate their neighbours here.
0.5pts Stoke to win 1-0 @20.0 (Betfair): Stoke to win is slightly over-priced 7.6 versus what shoud be about 6.4 however given that we expect this to be a low scoring affair we are happy to take a punt on Stoke scaping by with the only goal.
2.5pts Man City @ 4/5 (bet365): Even without Tevez City have enough strength in depth to win this easily. Hard to imagine any other top 4 side at a similar price for this game.
1.5pts Sunderland :3.8 (Betfair): I rate them the better team in this derby and so they are slightly over-priced here even if their lack of goals is a slight concern.
3 pts Racing Santander @ 6/4 (boyles): Should be closer to evens. The better team here and should win with home advantage
2 pts Atletico Madrid @4/7 (888sport.com): should be 4/9 get involved.
Lay Arsenal @1.2 Betfair -liability 1 pt: Arsenal are too short here for the London derby. Should be closer to 2/7. West Ham are not as bad as their results suggest and can frustrate their neighbours here.
0.5pts Stoke to win 1-0 @20.0 (Betfair): Stoke to win is slightly over-priced 7.6 versus what shoud be about 6.4 however given that we expect this to be a low scoring affair we are happy to take a punt on Stoke scaping by with the only goal.
2.5pts Man City @ 4/5 (bet365): Even without Tevez City have enough strength in depth to win this easily. Hard to imagine any other top 4 side at a similar price for this game.
1.5pts Sunderland :3.8 (Betfair): I rate them the better team in this derby and so they are slightly over-priced here even if their lack of goals is a slight concern.
3 pts Racing Santander @ 6/4 (boyles): Should be closer to evens. The better team here and should win with home advantage
2 pts Atletico Madrid @4/7 (888sport.com): should be 4/9 get involved.
Saturday, 23 October 2010
Saturday
Ok I'm out of the country at the minute so the explanations will be brief today:
1pt It's Crucial @7/1 (Bet365) 2.45 Aintree: Likes to frontrun which is a big bonus here. \also would be the best of these horses. The big dnager could be an improving Safari Adventures.
2pts Tartak @9/4 (general) 3.20 AAintree: Monets Garden is too old. Alberta's Run beat Tartak by 5ls here the end of last season off level weights - giving away loads of weight today. Poqelin might not be best suited to Aintree and given the connections is unlikely to offer any value.
2pts Tartak to place @ 1.95(Betfair)
0.5pts e/w Phare Isle @ 18/1 (VCbet) 4.00 Aintree: Can come late to make the frame here in a very ordinary race.
1.5pts e/w Master of the Hounds @15/2 (VCbet) 2.55 Doncaster: Very little to choose between him and Dunboyne Express and not 100% convinced by Casamento yet.
1.5pts Aruacaria evns (PP) 3.15 Wexford: Top class bumper horse who should improve for her first run over hurdles the last day. Facing similar opposition and a similar result to be expected.
1pt Tottenham 2.2 (Betfair)
1pt Birmingham 2.0 (Betfair)
1pt Aston Villa 3.45 (Betfair)
1pt Fulham 4.2(Betfair)
1pt West Ham 7/5 (totesport)
1pt It's Crucial @7/1 (Bet365) 2.45 Aintree: Likes to frontrun which is a big bonus here. \also would be the best of these horses. The big dnager could be an improving Safari Adventures.
2pts Tartak @9/4 (general) 3.20 AAintree: Monets Garden is too old. Alberta's Run beat Tartak by 5ls here the end of last season off level weights - giving away loads of weight today. Poqelin might not be best suited to Aintree and given the connections is unlikely to offer any value.
2pts Tartak to place @ 1.95(Betfair)
0.5pts e/w Phare Isle @ 18/1 (VCbet) 4.00 Aintree: Can come late to make the frame here in a very ordinary race.
1.5pts e/w Master of the Hounds @15/2 (VCbet) 2.55 Doncaster: Very little to choose between him and Dunboyne Express and not 100% convinced by Casamento yet.
1.5pts Aruacaria evns (PP) 3.15 Wexford: Top class bumper horse who should improve for her first run over hurdles the last day. Facing similar opposition and a similar result to be expected.
1pt Tottenham 2.2 (Betfair)
1pt Birmingham 2.0 (Betfair)
1pt Aston Villa 3.45 (Betfair)
1pt Fulham 4.2(Betfair)
1pt West Ham 7/5 (totesport)
Tuesday, 19 October 2010
CL Wed
To date
Total: +30.84pts
HR: -0.29pts
Football: +31.13pts
OK I'll start with the Barcelona game. Barca are 1/7 and the spread firms expect them to score roughly 3 goals at home to Copenhagen. Given that, it could pay to side with one of our favourite bets of last season and back Villa to get on the score sheet. Sure we don't expect him to be quite as reliable as he was last season at Valencia where he was the focus of all the attacks but at 4/5 (although as short as 4/11 in places) in the Nou Camp he is definitely worth a bet
1.5pts Villa to score anytime @ 4/5 (Unibet)
Lyon's poor start to the season seems to be overplayed in their price to beat Benfica. Lyon have started to find a bit of form domestically and have already won their first 2 CL games (although admittedly Schalke were out of form and injury depleted when they struggled by them. Even still odds against at home against Portugese opposition looks too good to pass up.
2pts Lyon @6/5 (bet 365)
As said above Schalke had an injury hit and slow start to the season but they are start to come to themselves now. They are at home this week to a team that are probably one of the worst 3 teams in the competition and we expect them to have way too much firepower so we are happy to take them on the Asian handicap of -1 with our stake refunded if they only win by the minimum.
1.5pts Schalke -1 @5/6 (Asian H/C) (Stan James)
Also in this game it is worth getting involved in the goalscorer markets. Huntelaar has scored in his last 7 games and can be relied upon again here to figure with his main opposition probably coming from Farfan.
1pt e/w Huntelaar to score first @ 4/1 (bet365)
Finally I really don't think home advantage in europe can count for enough to keep Valencia odds against for their trip to Glasgow. They are a hugely superior team who destroyed a Bursaspor team away which Rangers struggled to break down at home. They suffered their first league defeat of the season to Barca at the weekend and come here needing the 3 points to get back on track after being very unlucky to lose to a United side which offered very little for much of the game in the Mestalla.
2pts Valencia @ 6/5 (Stan James, 888sport)
Total: +30.84pts
HR: -0.29pts
Football: +31.13pts
OK I'll start with the Barcelona game. Barca are 1/7 and the spread firms expect them to score roughly 3 goals at home to Copenhagen. Given that, it could pay to side with one of our favourite bets of last season and back Villa to get on the score sheet. Sure we don't expect him to be quite as reliable as he was last season at Valencia where he was the focus of all the attacks but at 4/5 (although as short as 4/11 in places) in the Nou Camp he is definitely worth a bet
1.5pts Villa to score anytime @ 4/5 (Unibet)
Lyon's poor start to the season seems to be overplayed in their price to beat Benfica. Lyon have started to find a bit of form domestically and have already won their first 2 CL games (although admittedly Schalke were out of form and injury depleted when they struggled by them. Even still odds against at home against Portugese opposition looks too good to pass up.
2pts Lyon @6/5 (bet 365)
As said above Schalke had an injury hit and slow start to the season but they are start to come to themselves now. They are at home this week to a team that are probably one of the worst 3 teams in the competition and we expect them to have way too much firepower so we are happy to take them on the Asian handicap of -1 with our stake refunded if they only win by the minimum.
1.5pts Schalke -1 @5/6 (Asian H/C) (Stan James)
Also in this game it is worth getting involved in the goalscorer markets. Huntelaar has scored in his last 7 games and can be relied upon again here to figure with his main opposition probably coming from Farfan.
1pt e/w Huntelaar to score first @ 4/1 (bet365)
Finally I really don't think home advantage in europe can count for enough to keep Valencia odds against for their trip to Glasgow. They are a hugely superior team who destroyed a Bursaspor team away which Rangers struggled to break down at home. They suffered their first league defeat of the season to Barca at the weekend and come here needing the 3 points to get back on track after being very unlucky to lose to a United side which offered very little for much of the game in the Mestalla.
2pts Valencia @ 6/5 (Stan James, 888sport)
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