OK first things first given all the specials on in the bookies for the first race of the festival the most important thing here is to try and get as much money in play as possible. Paddy Power are refunding all losing bets if Cue Card wins (€200 max) - which is currently rated about a 28% chance. Bruce Betting are offering 3/1 on Cue Card offering a straight up 14% edge or you can arb it and take the cash (€500max).
A quick preview of the horses below along with my probable strategy - there won't be any specific tips on this race as I will be using a scattergun approach to try to maximise value but it will be hard to put yourself in a position where you have a negative expectation on this race.
Cue Card has an official rating of 159 (3lbs higher than Dunguib 4/5f was last year) has raced around Cheltenham 3 times with 2 wins and a second. His one defeat was by 4 1/2Ls to Menorah last years winner off level weights. Worth bearing in mind CC was 4 at the time and Menorah was 5, if it was the supreme at those ages he would have been receiving an 8lb allowance. Looks like he can leave the Bumpers winner hoodoo well behind and deliver the good here. IF there was no PP offer I would probably be putting him up as a bet.
Spirit Son looked awesome the last day sauntering away with a listed race. Hasn't been tested yet against the best but a good turn of foot and the bookies are right to have him as the main danger to CC.
Sprinter Sacre is a chaser in waiting - won't disgrace himself here but stables second string and I wouldn't be too keen on getting involved.
Recession Proof like Get Me out of Here (2nd last year) is coming off the back of winning the Totesport Trophy. Not sure he is quite up to that standard but probably not a million miles away. On a pure line of form through Bothy and Menorah he has about 26lbs to find with Cue Card. Don't think there will be quite that much between them but he'll have to up his game to get involved in the finish here.
Al Ferof was 2nd in the Bumper behind Cue Card last year and although he's had a good season he hasn't impressed as much. Fell at Cheltenham on his hurdling debut against some rag bag opposition and then came third when racing a bit keenly (apparently) in the fog at Newbury over Christmas. 2 straightforward wins since including the ill-fated race in Newbury a few weeks back involving the electrocution of some of his competitors - tbh he probably needs one or 2 of these to drop dead to win this but it is worth noting he is trained by Nicholls, ridden by Ruby (probably) runs in Nolands colours - I would be surprised if these factors aren't enough to see him shorten up on the day and so there are worse plans than having a back to lay. Not the worst option but has a bit to find.
Zaidpour is a bit of a mystery to me. I'll gladly forgive him losing on the heavy ground over Christmas and he definitely will be better on the good ground we are likely to see at Cheltenham. But watching back the video of his race the last day in Leopardstown I'm just a bit worried that he had quite a hard race the last day. He came under pressure turning in but instead of minding him Townend drove him out all the way to the line to get second. Shot from the Hip who also runs in this race came third that day but I thought his jockey took a bit more care of him once he realised he was never getting to the winner. Shot from the Hip could be the joker in the pack here althoughI fancy ZP to recover and show himself the best of the Irish. Also unless there is word for JP's horse in Queens the night before the Irish money should be enough to shorten up ZP on track a litttle on the day.
I will be looking to have Cue Card, Spirit Son and Zaidpour as winners for me in this race and prob try to limit the downside on Shot from the Hip but like I said make sure you get plenty of money in play no matter what you do.
Hope to preview the Arkle in the next day or 2 and will actually be back to proper tipping on that one!
Tuesday, 1 March 2011
Thursday, 27 January 2011
New Horizons
OK profit for a pretty interupted season to date is +9.32pts. To try to get more frequent and timely tips out though a lot of the blog will now be covered on twitter. There will still be ante-post previews of Cheltenham and some weekend previews up here but if there is nothing up here by lunchtime on a Saturday then all remaining weekend tips will be by tweet.
If you want to follow me it is Gambrose888 you are looking for.
If you want to follow me it is Gambrose888 you are looking for.
Saturday, 20 November 2010
Saturday Football
4pts QPR @1/2 (Betfred): The second best team in the league at home to relegation fodder. This should be a straightforward task for QPR to get back on track after a lot of draws recently.
0.5pts e/w Mackie to score first 11/2 e/w (Bet365): In what should be a straight forward game for QPR there should be plenty of opportunities for him to add to his tally of 8 for the season.
1pt Wolves @ 21/10 (VCbet, Betfred): Blackpool continue to be over-rated and wolves can take the points here in the relegation 6 pointer.
1.5pts Mainz @ 2/1(bet365): Mainz have started to come back down to earth the last few week but seems a bit of an over-reaction to their troubles. BM continue to leak goals at an alarming rate and cannot be trusted to do the business here.
1pt over2.5 goals BM v Mainz 1.91(Betfair): as said above BM conceed a lot of goals (33 in 12 games to date) and so it could be a very open encouter on the cards here.
1pt Freiburg @9/2 (Stan James): should be about 10/3 for this game. Up against it here but the value is definitely on our side.
1pt Leverkusen @2/1 (bet365, VC, Lads): Not as much between these 2 sides as the prices suggest and Leverkusen can take advantage of home comforts.
1.5pts e/w Ronaldo to score first @ 13/5 (bet365): an ok price for him to score first but you are getting crazy value on him to score anytime.
0.5pts e/w Mackie to score first 11/2 e/w (Bet365): In what should be a straight forward game for QPR there should be plenty of opportunities for him to add to his tally of 8 for the season.
1pt Wolves @ 21/10 (VCbet, Betfred): Blackpool continue to be over-rated and wolves can take the points here in the relegation 6 pointer.
1.5pts Mainz @ 2/1(bet365): Mainz have started to come back down to earth the last few week but seems a bit of an over-reaction to their troubles. BM continue to leak goals at an alarming rate and cannot be trusted to do the business here.
1pt over2.5 goals BM v Mainz 1.91(Betfair): as said above BM conceed a lot of goals (33 in 12 games to date) and so it could be a very open encouter on the cards here.
1pt Freiburg @9/2 (Stan James): should be about 10/3 for this game. Up against it here but the value is definitely on our side.
1pt Leverkusen @2/1 (bet365, VC, Lads): Not as much between these 2 sides as the prices suggest and Leverkusen can take advantage of home comforts.
1.5pts e/w Ronaldo to score first @ 13/5 (bet365): an ok price for him to score first but you are getting crazy value on him to score anytime.
Expect another Commanding performance
2.2pts Imperial Commander @10/11 3.25 Haydock: Should have won this last year going down by a nose to Kauto. Has a good record fresh and is about a stone better than the rest of these horses. He is the best chaser in training and should be considerably shorter in my book.
1.5pts Zaynar @15/8 2.35 Ascot; Never a big fan of this guy but you can't argue with 3rd in both the Champion Hurdle and Aintree. Won this last year and with Karabak being cut back in trip you would have to think it will suit him more than his main rival. Nicholl's runner is obviously a good horse but he is being thrown in at the deep end here.
0.5pts e/w King Edmund @ 9/1 (bet365) : The favourite here could be anything and will probably win but I would make this guy the pick of the rest.
1pt Quinola Des Obeaux 30.0 (Betfair) Huntingdon 1.05: The favourite here always struggled to jump hurdles and I feel it is only a matter of time before that proves his undoing over fences. QdO has seen a racecourse much - 2 easy bumper wins before a flop at Cheltenham and then a good hurdle win before picking up an injury next time out. If fit to go here he can have a real crack at this.
Football to follow about 1pm
1.5pts Zaynar @15/8 2.35 Ascot; Never a big fan of this guy but you can't argue with 3rd in both the Champion Hurdle and Aintree. Won this last year and with Karabak being cut back in trip you would have to think it will suit him more than his main rival. Nicholl's runner is obviously a good horse but he is being thrown in at the deep end here.
0.5pts e/w King Edmund @ 9/1 (bet365) : The favourite here could be anything and will probably win but I would make this guy the pick of the rest.
1pt Quinola Des Obeaux 30.0 (Betfair) Huntingdon 1.05: The favourite here always struggled to jump hurdles and I feel it is only a matter of time before that proves his undoing over fences. QdO has seen a racecourse much - 2 easy bumper wins before a flop at Cheltenham and then a good hurdle win before picking up an injury next time out. If fit to go here he can have a real crack at this.
Football to follow about 1pm
Saturday, 13 November 2010
Part 3
2pts Cardiff @ evns: You are getting evens on what is arguably the best team in the Championship playing arguably the worst - get on.
0.5pts e/w Bothroyd to score first @11/2 (bet365): 11 goals in 16 games for far this season and should get plenty of chances today especially with Bellamy back in support
0.5pts e/w Bothroyd to score first @11/2 (bet365): 11 goals in 16 games for far this season and should get plenty of chances today especially with Bellamy back in support
Saturday Gamble part 2
0.75pts e/w Ballyfitz @ 12/1(bet365, Lads) 1.55 Cheltenham; Runs well fresh and is of an 8lb lower mark than when he came 4th in the Paddy Power last year. Jumping is as ever a concern but a leading contenders and def worth a bet at this price.
0.5pts e/w Any Currency @8/1 (Bet365) 1.55 Cheltenham: Has alight racing weight here and the trainer has already got a run into him this season. 4th in the marathon event here at the festival so no stamina concerns. Is a worthy favourite for this event.
2pts Long Run @ 7/2 (bet365) 2.35 Cheltenham: Will need to be quick to get this price. Very classy horse who was undone at the festival last season by a combination of his trainer taking too long to decide what his target race should be, a really fast run in the race previous to the festival and of course running against a horse that is always better at Chelt than anywhere else (Weapons Amnesty)
1pt e/w Mad Max @ 9/1 (bet365, Paddy Power); Both these bookies are paying 5 places so I couldn't resist also backing Hendersons second string. A phenomenal horse who prob won't be seen at his best here. Can be difficult for horses as big as this to deal with downhills but has run creditably here in the past so not hard to see him making the frame.
I'll post this now to let you get on the Long Run bet - part 3 to come
0.5pts e/w Any Currency @8/1 (Bet365) 1.55 Cheltenham: Has alight racing weight here and the trainer has already got a run into him this season. 4th in the marathon event here at the festival so no stamina concerns. Is a worthy favourite for this event.
2pts Long Run @ 7/2 (bet365) 2.35 Cheltenham: Will need to be quick to get this price. Very classy horse who was undone at the festival last season by a combination of his trainer taking too long to decide what his target race should be, a really fast run in the race previous to the festival and of course running against a horse that is always better at Chelt than anywhere else (Weapons Amnesty)
1pt e/w Mad Max @ 9/1 (bet365, Paddy Power); Both these bookies are paying 5 places so I couldn't resist also backing Hendersons second string. A phenomenal horse who prob won't be seen at his best here. Can be difficult for horses as big as this to deal with downhills but has run creditably here in the past so not hard to see him making the frame.
I'll post this now to let you get on the Long Run bet - part 3 to come
Saturday Gamble
OK going to be quick before the early kick off and racing start - this is part 1 of 2
1pt Aston Villa @ 5.9 (Betfair): Should be 7/2 and even though Villa haven't been playing very well neither have Man Utd. Man Utd have been poor especially on the road this season and have to be opposed at odds-on here.
2pts West Ham @ 10/11 (Paddy Power, Lads): Blackpool have set themselves up for a season of heroic failure. West Ham are gradually starting to find their feet after a very slow start. I do have concerns about their confidence but they have by far the better players and I had them down as about a 4/6 shot.
2pts Man City @ 4/9: Continue to be underestimated by the bookies
0.25pts e/w Pena Dorada @ 33/1 (bet365)
0.25pts e/w Zakeeeta @ 20.0 and 5.3 (Betfair) 12.50 Cheltenham: A few bookies have the 33s but not all are paying 1/4 the odds for a place so be sure to check that out. I think the top 2 in the market are over-hyped and so I am having small interests in 2 of the outsiders who have made decent starts to their hurdling careers.
1pt Aston Villa @ 5.9 (Betfair): Should be 7/2 and even though Villa haven't been playing very well neither have Man Utd. Man Utd have been poor especially on the road this season and have to be opposed at odds-on here.
2pts West Ham @ 10/11 (Paddy Power, Lads): Blackpool have set themselves up for a season of heroic failure. West Ham are gradually starting to find their feet after a very slow start. I do have concerns about their confidence but they have by far the better players and I had them down as about a 4/6 shot.
2pts Man City @ 4/9: Continue to be underestimated by the bookies
0.25pts e/w Pena Dorada @ 33/1 (bet365)
0.25pts e/w Zakeeeta @ 20.0 and 5.3 (Betfair) 12.50 Cheltenham: A few bookies have the 33s but not all are paying 1/4 the odds for a place so be sure to check that out. I think the top 2 in the market are over-hyped and so I am having small interests in 2 of the outsiders who have made decent starts to their hurdling careers.
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