The blog is back...which can only mean one thing - it's nearly festival time again! Just a few quick thoughts on Tuesdays racing to get us started. I guess we might as well start at the start:

Supreme Novices:
All the talk here has been about JP's 2. Not hard to see why My Tent or Yours is top of the market after crushing the Betfair Hurdle off 148. That win left him with a lot of nasty stats to overcome but a fair bit better than most of horses that have previously tried this route to Supreme glory. Could have gone off second fav if he had gone for the Champion. A lot of respect for this guy but at 7/4 and the weight of history some some pretty decent horses against him I'll pass on him scaling the same heights as the betfair again so quickly.
Less deserving of his place at the top of the market is Jezki...don't get me wrong I think the Royal Bond is probably the strongest piece of Irish form to go off but 5/1? Really? Wasn't exactly great in the bumper last year and although he looked like getting into contention at the bottom of the hill he never looked particularly happy. Hasn't done anythin wrong over hurdles with 4 good wins but on his best form he was 1 1/2ls better than Champagne Fever getting 3lbs. Champagne Fever won the bumper last year never having been headed from the tape. This seems to be his standard operating procedure and I am assume he will go off in front to try and gallop them into submission again. At least we don't need to worry about him not liking racing in a crowd and know he can run downhill at speed without getting unbalanced - 2 key things in a supreme. (17 of the last 21 winners had previous won a race with 14 or more winners and everyone knows how important course form is ie the ability to run up AND down hills). Good ground would be needed to see him at his best and give him a chance to front-run without getting collared up the hill. He is more than 3 times the price of Jezki at 16s which looks wrong but still couldn't back him with rain and frost forecast.
One horse that will enjoy it if it comes up soft is Melodic Rendevous who comes with pretty strong form having taken down the G1 Tolworth before smashing the G2 winner Puffin Billy the next time out but think unless we get a downpour he'll find a couple too pacey and classy for him here.
Another horse who had been making hay in the mud (if thats possible) is Un Atout who could be anything, but a chaser in the making I would be more interested in backing him for the 2014 Arkle than this years Supreme especially at 7/1.

So who does that leave us with... a horse with course form and the second highest rating in the field. A horse that has beaten last years Supreme and Triumph hurdle winners already this year and yet is still only 4th favourite - Dodging Bullets @9/1 Won't be popular with the trend boys as he breaks pretty much every trend that will be quoted between now and next Tuesday although most of them I am happy to disregard the one worry is he hasn't raced since coming 3rd in the Christmas Hurdle (a piece of form that puts him well clear of everything but MTOY). Would like to have seen him have a spin around a track in Feb but Nicholls is charge and if any man knows how to get him there right its him. The only race DB didn't win at Cheltenham was last seasons Triumph where he came a close fourth not quite making it up the hill. He has had a breathing op since then which should help. Think the commentator mentioned him once in that race before the bottom of the hill before he arrived on the scene to challenge. With CF racing like a startled hare out the front he's sure to get the pace he like and come like a train to challenge late. What better way to start the festival than dodging a bullet when the short priced 'certainty' gets turned over.

1.5pts e/w Dodging Bullets 9/1

Arkle:
' He seemed to lack moral courage and just surrendered when challenged' - that is what I had to say about Simonsig in last years preview about 12 hours before he put in one of the performances of the festival to win the Neptune by 7Ls. You would think that I would have learned my lesson at this stage given he then started his chasing career with 3 wins for a combined winning distance of 99Ls .....but I just can't bring myself to bet this guy at 4/6 in comfortably his toughest test to date. I think it might be I prefer to see a horse get into a fight and win before getting stuck in a short odds in a proper G1. So if not him then who? Not exactly like there is much strength in depth here. You would think the logical place would be last years champion hurdle second who has 3 similarly easy chase wins so far this season but I prefer to go for a horse who has actually had to race something other than Aunt Sally's, who has won 2 genuine G1 chases and has had his jumping tested to the limits already (and broken) - Arvikka Legionnaire knows what it takes to win a battle having overcome Dedigout and Oscars Wells previously and would probably have accounted for the useful Beneficient if standing up in his last race. Didn't give him the credit he deserved when he beat Dedigout thinking Russell had let him steal a soft lead but he's proved himself since then. When Simonsig wins and i'm drying my eyes with some more losing betting slips at least I can console myself with the knowledge that at least this time SImonsig will know he's been in a race

Arvika Legionaire 1 pt e/w @8/1

Champion Hurdle:

"Beauty is truth, truth beauty," – that is all

Ye know on earth, and all ye need to know

 That was what Keats had to say when asked about his thoughts on Hurricane Fly's chances of regaining his champion hurdle crown although how much faith you can put in the opinion of an opiate fiend is questionable especially when he obviously hasn't heard of Paddy Powers money back special. Let's not beat around the bush here - Hurricane Fly is beautiful, probably the best hurdler since the mighty Istabraq and has a real chance to be only the 2nd horse to regain his Champion Hurdle crown. Looks a lot better now than he did last yearwhen he was never right (and still managed 3rd) and with a proper campaign behind he will be going into this fighting fit. However given we will get our money back for opposing him I can't not have a chunk on Zarkander. (In fairness I would have backed him regardless having gotten on at 6s before his prep run but will be sizing up now!) Zarkander wasn't right last season either but still came 4th despite only being a 5 yo. Has done nothing wrong this year. Won the Triumph here as a 4yo and expecting big things here. If you are doing big size here I probably like keeping Grandouet onside as well but if you just want 1 bet then

2pts Zarkander

Mares Hurdle:
Having despaired with Keats crazed ramblings I decided to turn to Shakespeare for some inspiration on this one and he gave some pretty sage advice as could be expected:

"He's mad that trusts in the tameness of a wolf, a horse's health,
a boy's love, or a whore's oath."

Every year after 10 months Quevega re-emerges from the mists of Kildare to win 2 graded races  at miniscule odds without any prep race and every year as everyone else empties and then reloads their wheel-barrows proclaiming her to be the surest bet since they got that broomcupboard  out in Santry for only 600k I try to stand firm and decry their insanity for what it is, and every year I gradually get poorer and they get richer and more cocky...well I guess part of Cheltenham is the traditions so here goes my attempts to topple the queen of the Cotswolds!

Actually only 1 horse i'm going to bother mentioning here because with the honourable exception of Zuzka who probably won't run here the rest of these would struggle to win a claimer in Kilbeggan. Une Artiste is a different kettle of fish though. A festival winner last year in the Fred Winter and winner of 2 listed races so far this term this is a proper filly. If Willy S is right and anything goes wrong with the fav we will be on to a good one here.

2pts ew Une Artiste.

Right thats me done for tonight - don't worry I haven't forgotten everyone's favourite ATM the cross country chase but that will have to wait til issue 2 (probably Sunday)

Clawing our way back into the light

Well somehow back ahead for the festival after a pretty solid day today. Tomorrow is a pretty tricky day although we have another paddy power special to add some spice to our day (or variance as other people call it).

Jewson:
Actually coming out with a different answer than I thought I would coming into this which is kind of unfortunate as I've come to the conclusion that Cristal Bonus (my ante-post bet) probably won't win. Ran a great race the last day but although he's had a pretty light campaign so far he burned up the track the last day and 19 days is not long enough to recover from that. Peddlars Cross is obviously the best horse in the race but given his build up and last minute change of plans its hard to trust he is going to be right for this - actually tempted to lay him for a place because you would hop with such a good horse if things don't seem to be going right the jockey won't be overly hard on him. Sir Des Champs is a horse that looks like he can run really fast - the only problem is he hasn't really had to so far over fences and I would like to see him having been tested a bit more in the run up to this if I was going to back him at 7/2. Champion Court won here over 2m5f on New Years Day but just over a length back from him that day giving away 3lb was Solix. Would be pretty confident Solix will improve past him tomorrow and given the form the rest of the stable is in I would be surprised if the 8/1 is still available for long. Giving 2lbs to Carlito Brigante was too much for him last year running a creditable 5th in the Coral Cup and has a win and a 2nd to CC at the course since.

1pt e/w Solix 8/1

Pertemps:
Not a race I'll be getting massively involved in Buena Vista is too old for the hat-trick and our father has plenty of weight...might side with course and distance winner Houblon des Obeuax at a big price. Still a 5 year old so hopefully still improving. Didn't run well last year in the triumph but hopefully that was just an off day and not an aversion to large fields, after a win here from Kayf Aramis in the winter he should be in good form for this.

0.5pts ew Houblon des Obeaux 40/1

Ryanair:
Tempted to take the lazy option and just put up Great Endevour at a big price before everyone else tips him in the morning and his price collapses but much and all as I like him and think he'll run into a place - I still think he'll find 1 or 2 too good for him. People always talk about the Cheltenham hill and how tough it is but what a lot of people don't realise is a lot of the time its going down the hill and not up it that does for a lot of horses. 3 of the horse here fall into that bracket - Riverside Theatre, Medermit and Somersby, expect all of them to come under pressure going down the hill to put them in a position they can't win from and then stay on up the hill to look like unlucky losers - RT prob has the best chance of being quick enough to make up lost ground and make the frame. Alberta's Run is too old. Rubi Light has improved since last year when he came third but this looks a tougher task than that which leaves Noble Prince who won the Jewson last year and spent the winter just being touched off by Big Zeb......however this all overlooks the best horse in the race - last years Arkle winner Captain Chris. He holds pretty much all of these on any known form and if you throw out his last run where he obviously wasn't right it actually doesn't look like that bad a season. He fell when he had Medermit (half his price) beaten first time out, had Somersby behind him then in the King George over a trip and course that would be a lot more to Somersbys liking. Yes he might not be right but if he is 14/1 is going to look a monster price.

1.5pts win Captain Chris

World Hurdle:
I've looked through the trends on this race and it seems the strongest trend over the last few years is to back whichever horse is called Big Bucks. However in what is his toughest test yet Paddy Power are giving us our money back if we back a horse to come second to him (e100max) so basically want to get plenty of each way cash down on those likely to make the frame so will probably be looking to keep Thousand Stars, Oscar Whisky and So Young on side. Oscar is the most likely to turn over Big Bucks but has never raced over 3m before which makes me nervous. Thousand Stars won over 3m2f in France and win a few extra yards would have beaten Oscar Whisky in Aintree over 2m4f. Does most of her racing over 2m but trip is definitelywithin her grasp. So Young wasn't far off Rock on Ruby in the Neptune last year and with a similar level of improvement could be the surprise package here. Giving up a lot of value to take the PP price on her though unfortunately!

If I find anything in the last 2 handicaps I'll tweet it tomorrow. Bedtime now!

Half time in Istanbul

Well if last night was Christmass eve then this morning a few of us woke up with sacks of coal at the bottom of our beds! Still 3 days to make it all back though!

In the first Allee Garde prob has the best single piece of form in coming 3rd to Last Installment (beaten a hd by First Lieutenant) but think he might lack the experience here and as with most of these horses it is hard to tell if the extra mile is an advantage or disadvantage, should be suited by ground but I would prefer side with a horse with a little extra experience in Teaforthree who ran Join Together to 1 1/2ls here back in November and has had a couple of easy wins either side of his Stephens Day flop at Kempton. Would be big against Harry the Viking who has 2 chase starts in 6 runners fields..this is a completely different proposition.

1pt e/w TeaforThree @7/1

Neptune Novices:
Not on happy ground here - I haven't seen Simonsigs defeat to Fingal Bay so I am relying on other peoples word that he seemed to lack moral courage and just surrendered when challenged..if that is the case I couldn't back him at any price not to talk about 5/2 for this. Unfortunately the best way of opposing him seems to come in the form of a Noel Meade horse which given Meade has a similar Cheltenham record to sobriety doesnt' fill me with a huge amount of confidence. That said Monkslands destruction of Lyreen Legend is a pretty impressive piece of form and if he goes on the ground we could be in for something special. Of the rest Beneficient probably doesn't get the recognition he deserves for his win the last day and could play a part in the end at a big price.

1.5pts win Monksland 11/2
0.5pts place Beneficient 6.2

RSA:
Not entirely convinced that Grand Crus is going to properly see out this trip - up against 2 battle-hardened warriors here on their favourite track and think there are enough reasons to leave him alone at 13/8. Always been a fan of First Lieutenant and can't really judge him off his early season form where I think the trainer messed him around a bit and over-raced him trying to get jumping experience into him. Been given a break since and should be close to his best tomorrow.....that said my preference is actually for Bobs Worth. Another horse who hasn't been seen at his best yet this season and was very impressive in his first race back after an operation when chasing home Invictus a few weeks back. He has course form figures of 111 and I'll be backing him to add a 4th 1 to that tomorrow.

1.5pts e/w Bobs Worth best morning price

Champion Chase:
To start with Big Zeb is too old and in decline, also Sizing is older than he seems and although i think it will be next season before we see any decline in him it has to be remembered he comes here just 5 weeks after running Big Zeb into the ground in the mud in Punchestown which is just on the cusp of most horses recovery time. Looking through the field there is not much strength in depth and only really leaves Finians Rainbow who looks nailed on for a place and I'd be hopefully he can upset the favourite. Ran a decent 2nd in the Arkle last year and seems to have continued his improvement this year (like his jumping a lot more now). He travels well and if Sizing is not on top form I think he will capitalize.

2pts e/w Finians Rainbow 5/1

Coral Cup:
Looking at previous trends Cape Dutch looks like a good way of opposing hype horse Balgarry and Poole Master and the great but over-burdened top weight Get me out of Here

0.75pts e/w Cape Dutch 16/1

Fred Winter:
In a minefield of plot horses I fully accept that I will inevitable lose in this race to some nag running 3 stone above any known form but at 16/1 its hard to ignore the proven form of Edeymi. 3rd behind Darroun and Hisaabat at Leopardstown being a pretty impressive performance.

Champion Bumper:
Best adivce I can give here is turn off the laptop, turn off the tv and go have a pint...you're not missing much value here.

A very special start

Well, its been a while but the Monday before Cheltenham - an adults equivalent of Christmas eve is here again so a few short thoughts on tomorrow's racing. My betting strategy for the first 2 races has been determined completely by 2 fantastic specials the bookies are giving and then after that I'll try and sift out some value in the later races.

Supreme Novices:
Boyle's have a shops only special for this - money back on losers if an Irish trained horse wins (max e200) this is roughly a 40% edge on any english trained runner you back so I've concentrated mainly on them. Talentwise Colour Squadron is possibly the pick of the bunch but he has too many quirks between running through hurdles and running sideways to be taken seriously in a field this size adn my pick would be Montbazon who was a length second to him the first time they met and won easily when CS crashed out the last day. His trainer couldn't be happier with his improvement since then the only downside being his broadcasting this to the world and subsequently causing his price to tumble. Still happy enough to take the 7s though and can't see him being far off. I'll also be having a little saver on Tetlami at 14s - not had the most conventional build up having being off course for 20 months he came back with 2 good hurldes wins and then had a run in a bumper a few weeks back to get him right for this. Not a huge fan of Darlan - his fall the last day combined with the heavy work he made of beating some average horses on his only other visit to Prestbury park being enough to put me off. I have a feeling Cinders and Ashes might prove better on flat tracks in time and might be one to keep in mind for Aintree if he finishes mid division here.

Arkle:
This time its Paddy Power who have lost their minds - money back if Sprinter Sacre wins for a 50% edge! SS looks pretty solid but this is a very classy field and he is up against the last 2 supreme winners both of whom save all of their best form for Cheltenham. SS on the other hand gurgled coming up the hill last year and a wind op may or may not have sorted that problem. If it has he's going to be tough to beat but I think even if he does win he's not going to do this without knowing he's been in a fight. Al Ferof and Menorah are both decent value (despite the latters sometimes erratic jumping) to get in the mix here. Not a huge fan of Cue Card. Found wanting here last year and the fact that his entire season he has raced at 2m4f is not something I would be a fan off. Suggests connections think he either lacks a bit of toe or needs an extra second at his jumps both of which are enough to exclude him from our calculations.

JLT Chase:
No massive opinions here...based on trends Billie Magern should be the pick but really couldn't back him given the size of his defeats including 20+ls to Quantativeeassing. Fruity O'Rooney meets a lot of the trends and looks a more solid option for a small interest. Hard to see quantitveeasing not placing but carrying a lot a weight to win it.

Champion Hurdle:
Hurricane fly looks the best hurdler since Istabraq and is hard to oppose here. Zarkander could have the makings of a superstar too but i think this may just have come too soon for him. Not much between the rest. Think the best bet here might be
1.5pts 3/1 on Zarkander w/o the fav (Paddy Power)


Cross Country:
Seem to be the only person who actually likes this race but its great for betting on. Course form outweights pretty much everything. Weights probably have more impact that most people claim but you could probably back the first 6 in the market e/w blind and have a decent chance of making a profit. The 2 for me are Uncle Junior and Sizing Australia.

1pt e/w Uncle Junior 9/2 (888sport)
1pt e/w Sizing Australia 5/1 (Lads)

Mares race:
Again Quevega looks to dominate this. Some value trying to pick a place though especially if you have a bet365 a/c where they are paying 4 places. Shop DJ seems to be on an upward curve winning a G3 comfortably at the end of last season and then putting in some good performances over fences this season. My concern would be that she hasn't had a run back over hurdles yet and might be a bit big at her jumps tomorrow - 20/1 is probably enough recompense for that though.

1.5pts e/w Shop DJ 20/1 (Lads)

Part deux

In the lower leagues I think sometimes people don't seem to realise that there is not the same spread in terms of ability between top and bottom as you often find in the premiership. Which means people seem to over-estimate the chances of a team fighting for the playoffs of winning a game versus some relegation fodder due to being anchored to the type of price you would get on a Liverpool v Blackburn game. I haven't gotten around to doin g the numbers on this yet but just from the amount of mis-pricings you see inthe lower leagues I think this has to be one of the explanations. More or less sums up all the bets below. Anyway on to the bets!

1pt Bournemouth 6/4 (Paddy POwer)
1pt Bury 3.9 (betfair)
1pt Rochdale 4.6(betfair)
1pt Wycombe 4.2(betfair)
0.5pt Tranmere 5.5(betfair)
0.5pt Exeter 9/2(lads)

1pt Model County Lass 16/1(Lads) Navan 2.45: No stand out performer in this race and her less fashionable connections are reflected in the price not her true ability

Saturday Football

OK the premiership is pretty well priced this week although theres still 1 or 2 bits of value.

3pts Arsenal 4/9 (lads); Not far off where I had this priced up but a lot of Asian money is going to mean Arsenal will quite possibly be 4/11 at the off.

1pt Stoke 6/1 (paddy power): United continue to be over-rated away from home. Stoke did Liverpool at home already and could spring another shock here. Backing them -1 isn't a terrible bet either.

Spurs were a massive bet at evens but pretty sure thats all long gone.

2pts Birmingham 4/5 (lads): Another game where the pro money is going to drive the price a lot lower.

1pt Bristol City 2.84 (betfair): A little too big although its quite marginal.

2pts Burnley 3.65(betfair): Seems a massive over-reaction to these 2 teams respective starts to the season. Southampton are the better team but not by a huge amount so hopefully Burnley can get their season up and running today.

1pt Coventry (at betfair price just at the off): Coventry are too big already but will be drifting to the off so hold off on backing them just yet!

1.5pts Derby 2.72(betfair): You'd think beating Forest with 10 men would get them a bit of respect but no still being massively under-rated so we'll keep backing them!

1pt Doncaster 6/4 (Lads): Worst team in the division but this Palace team aren't far ahead

1.5pt Ispwich 4/1(general): Not much between these teams imo. So think 4/1 is a crazy price for Ipswich.

Hope to have more later for lower leagues and Europe and maybe a few horses

Premiership Saturday

OK going to start off with some football for the day but firstly a quick explanation of the football bets here. There are going to be 3 types of football bets I put up here:

1. Bets based on where the match odds are out of line with the long term expectations of a team. Given the betting on where each team will finish the season points/position wise you can back out an implied price for each game they play. Sometimes these prices will be off from the prices offered due to people over-reacting to short-term events (see Arsenal and Man U today)

2. Bets based on where a lot of syndicate money is causing a price to contract in Asia but the effect hasn't filtered through to Europe yet. Sometimes you don't need to be the smartest man in the room you just need to copy what he is doing!

3. Bets based of other quirks and anomalies.

The 3 group of bets I will generally give an explanation of the logic behind the bet but for the first 2 the logic is always the same so I'll not constantly repeat myself.


So on to today:

2pts Arsenal to be winning at HT 10/11 (B365, Stan James): According to their long run expectations Arsenal should be about 2/7 to win this game not the 2/5 they are currently marked up at which makes them value in pretty much every market. An early goal could set them up for a comfortable win here. If it is goalless at HT the second half it might not actually be an advantage for them to be at home in the second half. The Asian Handicap is also an attractive way to get them onside at close to evns.

1pt Stoke @3.75 (betfair): Have them at about 3.45 for this and they will provide a real test to the Liverpool revolution.

1.5pts Wolves @15/8 (Ladbrokes): Asian money will drive this lower by the off.

3pts liability Lay Man Utd 1.45 (Betfair): This has to be a wrong price. My sheet suggests 3/5 is a fairer price and I think that might even be a bit low. 1.45 implies Man U will win this game 69% of the time. Last season away from home they won 5 from 19 or 26% - those wins coming against the giants of Blackpool, West Ham, Wigan, West Brom and Stoke. Bolton are also a very solid team at home losing only 4 times last season and they didn't exactly lie down against City in a 3-2 defeat earlier this season.

I hope to be back later with some lower league bets and maybe a couple of horses. Blue Bunting looked a cracking ew bet at 4s. That price is gone now but even the bit of 7/2 still looks good for a point ew. The favourite is over-hyped and BB is my 3yo of the season. Looks like she has everything and hopefully she can add her 3rd classic of the season.