A sad day overall with a small profit being over shadowed by Our Conor's fatal fall. Made the day feel like a defeat even if we do have our noses ahead. I suppose we can take some consolation though from the fact that there is at least some chance Quevega will be retired by next year so we won't feel obliged to set fire to any more cash on the mare's hurdle. On to tomorrow it looks like a busy day with some small bits of edge without ever getting to unleash with both barrels.
Neptune Hurdle:
Let's just be clear from the start Faugheen might have the same colours, the same jockey, the same trainer as Vautour but I don't rate him nearly as highly as his stablemate and it is hard to understand him going off a shorter price to win than Vautour. He doesn't jump as well, isn't battle hardened and apparently hasn't had the most fluent of preparations since Christmas so to be honest I think if WM is to win this it will be his second string Rathvinden that does the business. Second here on trials day to the very good Red Sherlock giving away 3lb he might just improve past him of the much better ground tomorrow. It's hard not to like Red Sherlock unbeaten in 6 starts including over course and distance but with the going looking on the firm side of good despite the official description I think he might just get done here by a faster horse. Royal Boy is interesting especially given Josses Hill's run in the Supreme today - take Vautour out of the picture and you would have said he won a standard enough renewal of the Supreme..last time out Royal Boy beat him 1/2l in the Tolworth. One big concern I have though is that the only time he raced on ground better than soft (which admittedly was a chase) was his worst performance on a racecourse and given his injury profile perhaps he needs a big more give in the ground. I think he will shorten on the day but I just can't quite bring myself to part with cash on him so will have a small interest on Ruby being wrong on the stables best in this.
0.5pts e/w Rathvinden 7/1
RSA Chase:
The betting for this race is proof if any was needed that if Willie Mullins put a saddle on me and told the world Ruby would be getting up on me the bookies would make me favourite for something at the festival. How people could think they are getting value backing Ballycasey is beyond me. He has lost every time he has tackled 3m before (in PTPs and a G1 hurdle when not staying behind Morning Assembly) and any time he has raced over a shorter trip he has won. You really want to bet cash on this lad getting up the hill in front?
Carlingford Lough looks short of the class needed to win this (2 wins in 13 chases) and may struggle to ping his fences at the speed required. I think Morning Assembly is slightly better and will appreciate the trip more but comes without a prep run and off the back of a defeat to Carlingfor Lough so if I had to back an Irish horse I would probably have to side with Don Cossack whose form is pretty much on a par with the first 3 mentioned except that he will appreciate both the better ground and the step up in trip, throw in the fact that he is nearly twice the price and he starts to look a little appealing.
2 of the English challengers catch the eye. Smad Place who has been placed in 2 world hurdles and seems to have got his jumping together after falling first time out. Not sure he is quite good enough to win this but hard to see him out of the frame if his jumping holds up and he is my ante-post bet.
The other interesting horse is Annacotty - probably a little young to win this but has won a G1 over 3 miles and very nearly won the novice handicap chase here on trials day under top weight. Given how poor I rate a lot of the horse here its hard not to have a few pence down at 25/1
.5pts e/w Don Cossack 14/1
.25pts e/w Annacotty 25/1
1 pt Smad Place to be placed Betfair SP
Coral Cup:
I had been going to put up Dell Arca here but he has been cut from 16's to 12's since I left work and that combined with the possibility that he left his race in the Newbury mud when coming 2nd in the Betfair hurdle. Smashing probably didn't have as much taken out of him being interfered with and hampered on the run in so 5lbs better off here and twice the price might be worth a small nibble.
.25pts e/w Smashing 25/1
Champion Chase
I'll admit that it took me a while to come around to Sire de Grugy as a bet here but a lot of that were the ludicrous' prices being quoted about him winning this race over the spring. Now all of a sudden everyone seems to have a different trend or stat that proves beyond doubt that he cant win and as a result he is not at a very backable price. Yes pretty much every horse that has ever beaten him is lining up tomorrow but since he began his 2 stone rise in the ratings only one horse has beaten him - Kid Cassidy who mugged him at Cheltenham in November and that was when receiving 10lbs. SdG jumped terribly that day and if anything gets him beat it will be his jumping because other than that he holds everyone here on all known form. He beat the 2nd fav by 7 lengths that last time they met and Arvika Legionnaire ended up pulled up in last years Arkle. Baily Green is priced up off 1 race coming second in last years Arkle and despite the great record of Arkle winners in this race he has done nothing since so happy to overlook him.
2.5pts Sire de Grugy 3/1
Cross Country
One of the best value races of the meeting with the same horse and trainers dominating time after time. Despite the cash coming for Star Neuville I think people may be underestimating theunique demands of this course when pricing him up so short. I see this revolving around 3 horses. The current champion Big Shu, the previous champion Balthazar King and new kid on the block Love Rory. The only one with questions to answer is Love Rory who beat Big Shu in the Risk of Thunder Chase in Punchestown over the winter. That was over 3m, this is 3m 7f the question is will he stay that as a 6 yo? I'm not sure but priced at 12/1 I'm willing to find out. In fact all 3 should be backed to fight out the places here as with top 4 getting paid the e/w value is usually huge given the domination a handful of horse have here.
1pt e/w Lover Rory 10.1
1pt e/w Big Shu 5/1
1pt e/w Balthazar King 7/1
You're on your own for the last 2 - although might be worth mentioning Paul Nicholls felt his nap of the meeting is a horse making its English debut Katgary around the 10/1 mark. If I do anything it might be to nibble at that.
Tuesday, 11 March 2014
Monday, 10 March 2014
The Usual Suspects
Right the countdown clock is into hours not days and the bookies are lining up to let us take their cash so lets not disappoint!
Supreme:
For people just looking for a reasonable sized bet on this race that actually have access to a paddy power account they are money-back on this race if your horse comes 2nd, 3rd or 4th which is pretty big edge in itself. (max e50). Hopefully we'll find the winner and save you the hassle of relying on their generousity.
I am not a fan of Irving here and predictably enough now that the Irish cash has started to land in England he is starting to drift. Not really convinced that the Dovecote was all that good a race and given the RP comments read 'not always fluent....hit 2 out...guessed at the last' hard to be convinced his jumping will be sharp enough at breakneck speed to win this. Comments in all of his 4 hurdle races make reference to his jumping by the way so not an isolated experience.
Vautour has comfortably the best piece of form as I see it from beating the Tullow Tank cosily the last day. Some doubts as to whether TTT was 100% but the gap from these 2 back to 3rd makes me think he wasn't far off. (Going into this race if pushed I probably would have had TTT as my supreme pick). Vautour is a slick jumper with a high cruising speed and can see him running a very similar race to Champagne Fever last year leading from the off and galloping them all into submission. Has had the benefit of being made to battle by Western Boy in Punchestown 2 starts back and expect to see him come out on top again if anything does get close enough to eyeball him coming up the hill.
Wicklow Brave will be a good horse in time but a big step up from the 2 egg and spoon races he's already won over hurdles and think Ruby had an easy enough choice in picking Vautour.
Of the rest if there is to be an English winner I think their best chance in the Liquidator who was a facile winner over course and distance in November before running horrendously when obviously not right in the Tolworth. If they have him right for this he should be in the frame although with an obviously less than ideal preparation it is hard to see him quite do enough to win it.
Western Boy will win some good races but I don't think this will be one of them - flatter tracks and softer ground may turn out to be the key to him in time.
3pts win Vautour 3/1
.25pts e/w The Liquidator 22/1
Arkle:
This preview would be very different if I wrote it 24 hours ago. Not because there has been any big news or change in conditions but I think I am finally starting to convince myself that Dodging Bullets won't actually win. DB is a tease, 3 wins from 5 at Cheltenham but none at the festival. Spends the winters beating very good horses making it look inevitable that victory at the festival is ensured before disappointing on the big day. Has never won a race past the turn of the year and has 3 G2 wins but a best of 3rd in the 4 G1s contested - maybe he is just not as good as I've always thought him to be. Throw in the fact that he has had a break of 31 days since going down a neck to Module in the Newbury mud and I can't be having him at odds of only 5/1 (there go all the festival accumulators!)
So who then? Champagne Fever? 2 from 2 at the festival but only 2 ever chase starts and a big mistake at the 2nd last the last day. He does always save his best for the festival but at 5/2 I couldn'tbe backing him. Chasing has been an afterthought for Rock on Ruby and having only beaten 2 horses in his entire chase career is not hard to oppose here. Grandouet shouldn't be good enough and looks held by DB so only leaves 1 horse left to back - Trifolium. 3rd in the Supreme 2 years ago a neck behind last years one time Champion Hurdle fav Darlan we know he can get around the track alright. He beat CF when he made his mistake at Christmas and then gave Felix Yonger a proper beating the last day altough maybe slightly flattered by FY running below form on the ground.
Given the doubts around everything else I'm happy to risk a small bet here and with BetPack moneyback if second to Ruby's CF (e25 max) we should be covered if CF is as good as Mullins yard think he is.
.75pts e/w Trifolium 9/2
Champion Hurdle:
Comfortably the race of the meeting and the best Champion hurdle I can remember. The thing about legendary horses is they do things that seem impossible, things that should be impossible by the laws of time and nature. Think Kautos last King George, think Frankels 2000 Guineas think Long Run winning anything with a crash test dummy strapped to his back. That is the realm Hurricane Fly is in. 21 wins from 24 starts including 19 G1's and 9 on the bounce now since 2 years ago when he wasn't right coming here and still came 3rd. Already the best hurdler in at least a decade and possibly ever if he wins tomorrow they're going to run out of parts of the Cotswolds to rename after him. Can a 10 yo win a Champion Hurdle? Usually the answer is no but actually this guy could do it. Talk that he is not at his best around Cheltenham is nonsense. He's lost once here when he obviously wasn't right and destroyed some proper horse on his other 2 visits. His only real problem is the fact that this isn't just any champion hurdle - this is the best champion hurdle in my lifetime. Any one of the big 4 would be a worthy champion in a normal year (in fact in a normal year Annie Power would be lining up a short price fav to emulate Dawn Run but instead is re-routed due to the phenomenal strength in depth here).
The New One - would he really have gotten past MTOY without a mistake at the last at Christmas? Maybe but can we trust him not to do the same again when asked to jump at speed? Probably not. Of the top 4 the only one I never considered having a bet on to be honest. Short enough for the horse with the most flaws of the big 4.
MTOY - this guy is good very good. Better than he showed in the Supreme last year where he was coming off the back of a less than ideal preparation picking up the Betfair Hurdle en route to Cheltenham. Should be seen at his best this year and McCoy will get the best out of him. Solid jumper and knows how to fight but might just fall short in an epic renewal.
Our Conor - what a machine, that was my thoughts on this horse last year and they haven't changed much since. Hasn't had a stellar season this year but this has been the focus and things have been building nicely.
I think Hurricane Fly will be carried out on his shield like the true warrior he is with Our Conor peaking at just the right time, improving just enough to edge out him out with MTOY fighting on for 3rd. But if not we could be witnessing something truely special.
2pt e/w Out Conor 5/1
Mares Hurdle:
I could probably copy and paste this preview from any of the previous 3 years of this race. Once more going to oppose Quevega once more going to get my pants pulled down as she does the impossible of winning a G2 at the festival from a 10 month lay off. We even have old age on our side this year with her turning 10. Surely sooner or later I'm bound to get this race right....right?
Anyway Cockney Sparrow was 2nd in a Fighting Fifth before falling the last time out as Annie Power galloped all her rivals into submission. Looks a classy horse and hopefully for once the grinch in me gets rewarded as someone finally puts an end to this fairytale.
1.5pts e/w Cockney Sparrow 10/1
No real thoughts on the other 3 races. Back tomorrow with all of Wednesdays action covered
Supreme:
For people just looking for a reasonable sized bet on this race that actually have access to a paddy power account they are money-back on this race if your horse comes 2nd, 3rd or 4th which is pretty big edge in itself. (max e50). Hopefully we'll find the winner and save you the hassle of relying on their generousity.
I am not a fan of Irving here and predictably enough now that the Irish cash has started to land in England he is starting to drift. Not really convinced that the Dovecote was all that good a race and given the RP comments read 'not always fluent....hit 2 out...guessed at the last' hard to be convinced his jumping will be sharp enough at breakneck speed to win this. Comments in all of his 4 hurdle races make reference to his jumping by the way so not an isolated experience.
Vautour has comfortably the best piece of form as I see it from beating the Tullow Tank cosily the last day. Some doubts as to whether TTT was 100% but the gap from these 2 back to 3rd makes me think he wasn't far off. (Going into this race if pushed I probably would have had TTT as my supreme pick). Vautour is a slick jumper with a high cruising speed and can see him running a very similar race to Champagne Fever last year leading from the off and galloping them all into submission. Has had the benefit of being made to battle by Western Boy in Punchestown 2 starts back and expect to see him come out on top again if anything does get close enough to eyeball him coming up the hill.
Wicklow Brave will be a good horse in time but a big step up from the 2 egg and spoon races he's already won over hurdles and think Ruby had an easy enough choice in picking Vautour.
Of the rest if there is to be an English winner I think their best chance in the Liquidator who was a facile winner over course and distance in November before running horrendously when obviously not right in the Tolworth. If they have him right for this he should be in the frame although with an obviously less than ideal preparation it is hard to see him quite do enough to win it.
Western Boy will win some good races but I don't think this will be one of them - flatter tracks and softer ground may turn out to be the key to him in time.
3pts win Vautour 3/1
.25pts e/w The Liquidator 22/1
Arkle:
This preview would be very different if I wrote it 24 hours ago. Not because there has been any big news or change in conditions but I think I am finally starting to convince myself that Dodging Bullets won't actually win. DB is a tease, 3 wins from 5 at Cheltenham but none at the festival. Spends the winters beating very good horses making it look inevitable that victory at the festival is ensured before disappointing on the big day. Has never won a race past the turn of the year and has 3 G2 wins but a best of 3rd in the 4 G1s contested - maybe he is just not as good as I've always thought him to be. Throw in the fact that he has had a break of 31 days since going down a neck to Module in the Newbury mud and I can't be having him at odds of only 5/1 (there go all the festival accumulators!)
So who then? Champagne Fever? 2 from 2 at the festival but only 2 ever chase starts and a big mistake at the 2nd last the last day. He does always save his best for the festival but at 5/2 I couldn'tbe backing him. Chasing has been an afterthought for Rock on Ruby and having only beaten 2 horses in his entire chase career is not hard to oppose here. Grandouet shouldn't be good enough and looks held by DB so only leaves 1 horse left to back - Trifolium. 3rd in the Supreme 2 years ago a neck behind last years one time Champion Hurdle fav Darlan we know he can get around the track alright. He beat CF when he made his mistake at Christmas and then gave Felix Yonger a proper beating the last day altough maybe slightly flattered by FY running below form on the ground.
Given the doubts around everything else I'm happy to risk a small bet here and with BetPack moneyback if second to Ruby's CF (e25 max) we should be covered if CF is as good as Mullins yard think he is.
.75pts e/w Trifolium 9/2
Champion Hurdle:
Comfortably the race of the meeting and the best Champion hurdle I can remember. The thing about legendary horses is they do things that seem impossible, things that should be impossible by the laws of time and nature. Think Kautos last King George, think Frankels 2000 Guineas think Long Run winning anything with a crash test dummy strapped to his back. That is the realm Hurricane Fly is in. 21 wins from 24 starts including 19 G1's and 9 on the bounce now since 2 years ago when he wasn't right coming here and still came 3rd. Already the best hurdler in at least a decade and possibly ever if he wins tomorrow they're going to run out of parts of the Cotswolds to rename after him. Can a 10 yo win a Champion Hurdle? Usually the answer is no but actually this guy could do it. Talk that he is not at his best around Cheltenham is nonsense. He's lost once here when he obviously wasn't right and destroyed some proper horse on his other 2 visits. His only real problem is the fact that this isn't just any champion hurdle - this is the best champion hurdle in my lifetime. Any one of the big 4 would be a worthy champion in a normal year (in fact in a normal year Annie Power would be lining up a short price fav to emulate Dawn Run but instead is re-routed due to the phenomenal strength in depth here).
The New One - would he really have gotten past MTOY without a mistake at the last at Christmas? Maybe but can we trust him not to do the same again when asked to jump at speed? Probably not. Of the top 4 the only one I never considered having a bet on to be honest. Short enough for the horse with the most flaws of the big 4.
MTOY - this guy is good very good. Better than he showed in the Supreme last year where he was coming off the back of a less than ideal preparation picking up the Betfair Hurdle en route to Cheltenham. Should be seen at his best this year and McCoy will get the best out of him. Solid jumper and knows how to fight but might just fall short in an epic renewal.
Our Conor - what a machine, that was my thoughts on this horse last year and they haven't changed much since. Hasn't had a stellar season this year but this has been the focus and things have been building nicely.
I think Hurricane Fly will be carried out on his shield like the true warrior he is with Our Conor peaking at just the right time, improving just enough to edge out him out with MTOY fighting on for 3rd. But if not we could be witnessing something truely special.
2pt e/w Out Conor 5/1
Mares Hurdle:
I could probably copy and paste this preview from any of the previous 3 years of this race. Once more going to oppose Quevega once more going to get my pants pulled down as she does the impossible of winning a G2 at the festival from a 10 month lay off. We even have old age on our side this year with her turning 10. Surely sooner or later I'm bound to get this race right....right?
Anyway Cockney Sparrow was 2nd in a Fighting Fifth before falling the last time out as Annie Power galloped all her rivals into submission. Looks a classy horse and hopefully for once the grinch in me gets rewarded as someone finally puts an end to this fairytale.
1.5pts e/w Cockney Sparrow 10/1
No real thoughts on the other 3 races. Back tomorrow with all of Wednesdays action covered
Friday, 15 March 2013
The first time I noticed Our Conor was when he raced Ruacana the last in Leopardstown. I couldn't believe my luck that the bookies were so generous to offer the horse I then thought would be the triumph hurdle winner at 10/1 - as it happened he got beat 9Ls that day and both the horses that beat him that should be backed to day but in particular Our Conor the easy winner that day
5pts Our Conor 7/2
1pt e/w Diakali
I'm going to skip the next 2 races due to wedding commitments and go straight to the big one. I've had a small cheeky bet on the previous festival winner Cape Tribulation who I expect to run a huge race today on the ground. Can't like SDC on ground that is getting to soft side and so am willing to unleash at the very generrous 3s offered on Bobs Worth who only ever wins when he goes to Cheltenham no matter what timeof year it is.
3ptsew Bobs Worth
1pt ew Cape Tribulation
Of the rest I think Kelles Bells will outrun his ridiculous 50/1 odds in the Martin Pipe and Chapourtugeon will probably reverse last years form in the donkey derby
5pts Our Conor 7/2
1pt e/w Diakali
I'm going to skip the next 2 races due to wedding commitments and go straight to the big one. I've had a small cheeky bet on the previous festival winner Cape Tribulation who I expect to run a huge race today on the ground. Can't like SDC on ground that is getting to soft side and so am willing to unleash at the very generrous 3s offered on Bobs Worth who only ever wins when he goes to Cheltenham no matter what timeof year it is.
3ptsew Bobs Worth
1pt ew Cape Tribulation
Of the rest I think Kelles Bells will outrun his ridiculous 50/1 odds in the Martin Pipe and Chapourtugeon will probably reverse last years form in the donkey derby
Wednesday, 13 March 2013
Waiting for Godot?
2 days down and our horses are now coming with their own ketchup and onions - some of them are literally playing chicken with immovable fences to avoid winning us cash. Surely it can't last. Can it? Our Conor's race can't come soon enough but in the meantime we'll have to make do with tomorrow fare.
I think connections have got it right with Dynaste in sending him for this. RSA was never his race and he should deliver the cash here. On formlines through the RSA winner and likely winner 1 out its hard to think that Texas Jack shouldn't be shorter but he may be racing the rest of these for the placepot. Prob a good race to take advantage of PP's MBS special of cashback if 2nd to the favourite.
1pt Dynaste win 13/8
2pts Texas Jack to place 3.5
Sam Winner may be the good thing people think in the pertemps but enough negativesat a price of 9/2 for me to look elsewhere if i washaving a bet. Possibly might throw some loose change on Ballybough Pat e/w at 18s if I get really desperate to get involved here but our cash can find better homes for itself on other races.
I really did try not to be so predictable in the Ryanair and try to find an alternative to the horse I really wanted to be backing in the Gold Cup, but the truth is there is none. First Lieutenant is the class of the field here given that Cue Card turns out again a little too soon after delivering our cash in the Ascot chase. Champion Court is horse I also really like normally but I think he may have left his season behind in the mud at Kempton over Christmas - definitely hadn't recovered from that when going down to Alasi last month. Only sentimentality could make me back Menorah against him and I'd struggle to make a case for any of the rest.
2pts win First Lieutenant 5/2
The World Hurdle is a race I was quite excited about - obviously now seeing how the week is going it only fills me with the dread of the amount of cash I am likely to lose on it but sure here goes anyway. It would be a bit disappointing if a potential Coral Cup candidate ended up being good enough to win this but Wonderful Charms connections will guarantee he goes off a single figure price which is not for me. The pick of the Irish has to be Bog Warrior and I think regardless of the drying ground he'll see off Solwhit and Co. again. His name and he racing record may see him drift tomorrow and if he does get out towards 12s 14s I'll probably want a bit e/w. Oscar Whiskey and Reve De Sivola couldn't be more closely matched on form but this is not the race for Oscar Whiskey - if he was mine I'd keep him for the 2m4f at Aintree and given I think he doesn't quite see out the 3m in a true run championship race I guess that means we are going to have to put a stroke through RdS as well...besides why back RdS when you could back the horse that beat him 1 1/2ls at the festival here 3 years ago, a horse that went on to get within 1 1/4ls of the imperious Hurricane Fly in the 2011 CH before spending a whoe year figuring out he didn't jump fences very well. He may not last the trip here but rather take my chances on one that may not than one that definitely won't.
1.5pts ew Peddlars Cross 10/1
Take a well deserved break after his victory to count your cash and then prepare to unleash again in the X Country at the end of the day. As advised Tuesday Any Currency and Bostons Angel are the 2 to look out for here.
If by some miracle us or any of the aforementioned horses survive the day tomorrow I'll be back tomorrow to tell you how much I like Our Conor and think it is time to stop all this pussyfooting around and to start betting like men on him.
I think connections have got it right with Dynaste in sending him for this. RSA was never his race and he should deliver the cash here. On formlines through the RSA winner and likely winner 1 out its hard to think that Texas Jack shouldn't be shorter but he may be racing the rest of these for the placepot. Prob a good race to take advantage of PP's MBS special of cashback if 2nd to the favourite.
1pt Dynaste win 13/8
2pts Texas Jack to place 3.5
Sam Winner may be the good thing people think in the pertemps but enough negativesat a price of 9/2 for me to look elsewhere if i washaving a bet. Possibly might throw some loose change on Ballybough Pat e/w at 18s if I get really desperate to get involved here but our cash can find better homes for itself on other races.
I really did try not to be so predictable in the Ryanair and try to find an alternative to the horse I really wanted to be backing in the Gold Cup, but the truth is there is none. First Lieutenant is the class of the field here given that Cue Card turns out again a little too soon after delivering our cash in the Ascot chase. Champion Court is horse I also really like normally but I think he may have left his season behind in the mud at Kempton over Christmas - definitely hadn't recovered from that when going down to Alasi last month. Only sentimentality could make me back Menorah against him and I'd struggle to make a case for any of the rest.
2pts win First Lieutenant 5/2
The World Hurdle is a race I was quite excited about - obviously now seeing how the week is going it only fills me with the dread of the amount of cash I am likely to lose on it but sure here goes anyway. It would be a bit disappointing if a potential Coral Cup candidate ended up being good enough to win this but Wonderful Charms connections will guarantee he goes off a single figure price which is not for me. The pick of the Irish has to be Bog Warrior and I think regardless of the drying ground he'll see off Solwhit and Co. again. His name and he racing record may see him drift tomorrow and if he does get out towards 12s 14s I'll probably want a bit e/w. Oscar Whiskey and Reve De Sivola couldn't be more closely matched on form but this is not the race for Oscar Whiskey - if he was mine I'd keep him for the 2m4f at Aintree and given I think he doesn't quite see out the 3m in a true run championship race I guess that means we are going to have to put a stroke through RdS as well...besides why back RdS when you could back the horse that beat him 1 1/2ls at the festival here 3 years ago, a horse that went on to get within 1 1/4ls of the imperious Hurricane Fly in the 2011 CH before spending a whoe year figuring out he didn't jump fences very well. He may not last the trip here but rather take my chances on one that may not than one that definitely won't.
1.5pts ew Peddlars Cross 10/1
Take a well deserved break after his victory to count your cash and then prepare to unleash again in the X Country at the end of the day. As advised Tuesday Any Currency and Bostons Angel are the 2 to look out for here.
If by some miracle us or any of the aforementioned horses survive the day tomorrow I'll be back tomorrow to tell you how much I like Our Conor and think it is time to stop all this pussyfooting around and to start betting like men on him.
Tuesday, 12 March 2013
Thats racing guys...thats all it is
'If you are going through hell, keep going'
Not the start we were hoping for but we will fight on.
The first race tomorrow I'm going to ignore due to time rstraints (although I have backed Rival d'estruval at 9s ante-post and expect a big run there)
In the second I'm going to make the quite possibly foolhardy decision to oppose King Alexandre and instead side with Chatterbox who had My Tent or Yours behind him earlier in the season that may be false form due to the pace in that race but taking things on trust with a lot of these horses but at least for this guy the price is right.
Chatterbox 1.5pts ew 10/1
Took my a while to convince myself any of the entrants this year were good enough to win the RSA so decided to side with Houblon Des Oboux in the end. 4th last year in pertempts behind Cape tribulation who is no no-hoper in Fridays GC he also ran Court in Motion to a 1 1/4L earlier in the season. Can't be far off on the pick of his form.
1 pt ew Houblon des Obeaux 12/1
Worst Champion Chase I can remember Sprinter Sacre is unopposable no matter how hard I try. Sit this one out and applaud a 2 true champions and toast Sizing Europes imminent retirement. At least he is given the opportunity to be carried out on his shield, disgusted no one else had the courage to even try to beat SS. (I had to go and look up the 3rd favourite to see who he was given the strength in depth here!)
A lot of reasons not to back Pendra in the Coral Cup due to age experience field size and never having tried over 2m1f before. He was however second to Melodic Rendezvous in a Tolworth and races under 11-1 - thats good enough for me!
0.5pts ew Pendra 8/1
Ruacana is the best horse in the Fred Winter whether that will be enough I really don't know. Hard to get involved with anything here with much confidence
Probably would be tempted by Vieux Lion Rouge in the bumper if he wasn't a 4 yo as it is it will probably be down to Milo Man to carry whatever pennies I have left in the last but don't plan on winning your drinking money on this race unless you've already taken the pledge
Not the start we were hoping for but we will fight on.
The first race tomorrow I'm going to ignore due to time rstraints (although I have backed Rival d'estruval at 9s ante-post and expect a big run there)
In the second I'm going to make the quite possibly foolhardy decision to oppose King Alexandre and instead side with Chatterbox who had My Tent or Yours behind him earlier in the season that may be false form due to the pace in that race but taking things on trust with a lot of these horses but at least for this guy the price is right.
Chatterbox 1.5pts ew 10/1
Took my a while to convince myself any of the entrants this year were good enough to win the RSA so decided to side with Houblon Des Oboux in the end. 4th last year in pertempts behind Cape tribulation who is no no-hoper in Fridays GC he also ran Court in Motion to a 1 1/4L earlier in the season. Can't be far off on the pick of his form.
1 pt ew Houblon des Obeaux 12/1
Worst Champion Chase I can remember Sprinter Sacre is unopposable no matter how hard I try. Sit this one out and applaud a 2 true champions and toast Sizing Europes imminent retirement. At least he is given the opportunity to be carried out on his shield, disgusted no one else had the courage to even try to beat SS. (I had to go and look up the 3rd favourite to see who he was given the strength in depth here!)
A lot of reasons not to back Pendra in the Coral Cup due to age experience field size and never having tried over 2m1f before. He was however second to Melodic Rendezvous in a Tolworth and races under 11-1 - thats good enough for me!
0.5pts ew Pendra 8/1
Ruacana is the best horse in the Fred Winter whether that will be enough I really don't know. Hard to get involved with anything here with much confidence
Probably would be tempted by Vieux Lion Rouge in the bumper if he wasn't a 4 yo as it is it will probably be down to Milo Man to carry whatever pennies I have left in the last but don't plan on winning your drinking money on this race unless you've already taken the pledge
Monday, 11 March 2013
Pounds, Euros, Dollars...any currency really
Well hope everyone has a good warchest set aside for 4 days battle. Hopefully this time tomorrow the satchel men will already be beating their retreat. Most of the main ones for tomorrow are covered already (only 7 runners takes some of the value from backing Arvika). Ruby's decision to ride Champagne fever and WH decision to pay 5 places have created even more value for us since then so hopefully people generousity continues for the whole week.
Just a quick disclaimer that handicap are not my strongest suit and I don't spend as much time researching here as on the other races. I have a few key trends I follow and some rules of thumb to try to limit the amount of horses I have to look at as much as possible so will in general be advising smaller stakes here.
In the JLT Chase just by looking at the age (7-10) and weight profile (<10st 11lbs="" 14="" 1lb="" 2="" a="" already="" and="" are="" ba="" bad="" be="" been="" br="" came="" can="" contenders.="" course="" doesn="" down="" eliminate="" enough="" for="" fruity="" get="" ground="" have="" he="" heavily="" here="" hopefully="" horses="" improve="" it="" last="" like="" likes="" loch="" lower="" o="" of="" off="" once="" ooney.="" ooney="" options.="" or="" quickly="" raced="" rest="" scan="" season="" second="" seem="" should="" t="" that="" the="" this.="" this="" to="" too="" we="" win="" worry="" year=""> 0.75pts e/w Fruity O'Rooney 11/1
The one handicap I really like though is the cross country and it sets itself up nicely with the bare 16 runners. The answer I seem to find this year is not the one I thought it would be though. Generally you want to be wary of anything without course form, generally want to side with the Irish and if possible Enda Bolger/ Nina Carberry. You would think that this would naturally lead me to Arabella Boy who has all the right connections and 2 wins in Punchestowns Cross Countrys and was going well here when falling over the winter but hard to justify backing AB when in my mind Bostons Angel is fairly closely matched with that one and I actually think in the near 4mile slog BA will get the better of Nina's mount. If someone offers me tens on him in the morning I won't say no. But for me the one I can't get away from is Any Currency. A classy animal that should have won more in his career he has never raced over this course before but Keighley did have him out schooling over these fences last week and was impressed with how he handled them. At 14/1 I'm willing to take my chances on him.
1pt ew Any Currency 14/1
(0.5pts ew Bostons Angel at 10s or better)
The last race is one that is hard to get interested in although it is quite a compact handicap. The favourite is Colour Squadron at 6/1 who was beaten 17Ls by Ohio Gold off level weights on soft ground back in January. Today he is carrying 5lbs less and is 4 times the price - thats good enough for me to have a nibble
0.5pts e/w Ohio Gold
Just a quick disclaimer that handicap are not my strongest suit and I don't spend as much time researching here as on the other races. I have a few key trends I follow and some rules of thumb to try to limit the amount of horses I have to look at as much as possible so will in general be advising smaller stakes here.
In the JLT Chase just by looking at the age (7-10) and weight profile (<10st 11lbs="" 14="" 1lb="" 2="" a="" already="" and="" are="" ba="" bad="" be="" been="" br="" came="" can="" contenders.="" course="" doesn="" down="" eliminate="" enough="" for="" fruity="" get="" ground="" have="" he="" heavily="" here="" hopefully="" horses="" improve="" it="" last="" like="" likes="" loch="" lower="" o="" of="" off="" once="" ooney.="" ooney="" options.="" or="" quickly="" raced="" rest="" scan="" season="" second="" seem="" should="" t="" that="" the="" this.="" this="" to="" too="" we="" win="" worry="" year=""> 0.75pts e/w Fruity O'Rooney 11/1
The one handicap I really like though is the cross country and it sets itself up nicely with the bare 16 runners. The answer I seem to find this year is not the one I thought it would be though. Generally you want to be wary of anything without course form, generally want to side with the Irish and if possible Enda Bolger/ Nina Carberry. You would think that this would naturally lead me to Arabella Boy who has all the right connections and 2 wins in Punchestowns Cross Countrys and was going well here when falling over the winter but hard to justify backing AB when in my mind Bostons Angel is fairly closely matched with that one and I actually think in the near 4mile slog BA will get the better of Nina's mount. If someone offers me tens on him in the morning I won't say no. But for me the one I can't get away from is Any Currency. A classy animal that should have won more in his career he has never raced over this course before but Keighley did have him out schooling over these fences last week and was impressed with how he handled them. At 14/1 I'm willing to take my chances on him.
1pt ew Any Currency 14/1
(0.5pts ew Bostons Angel at 10s or better)
The last race is one that is hard to get interested in although it is quite a compact handicap. The favourite is Colour Squadron at 6/1 who was beaten 17Ls by Ohio Gold off level weights on soft ground back in January. Today he is carrying 5lbs less and is 4 times the price - thats good enough for me to have a nibble
0.5pts e/w Ohio Gold
Thursday, 7 March 2013
The blog is back...which can only mean one thing - it's nearly festival time again! Just a few quick thoughts on Tuesdays racing to get us started. I guess we might as well start at the start:
Supreme Novices:
All the talk here has been about JP's 2. Not hard to see why My Tent or Yours is top of the market after crushing the Betfair Hurdle off 148. That win left him with a lot of nasty stats to overcome but a fair bit better than most of horses that have previously tried this route to Supreme glory. Could have gone off second fav if he had gone for the Champion. A lot of respect for this guy but at 7/4 and the weight of history some some pretty decent horses against him I'll pass on him scaling the same heights as the betfair again so quickly.
Less deserving of his place at the top of the market is Jezki...don't get me wrong I think the Royal Bond is probably the strongest piece of Irish form to go off but 5/1? Really? Wasn't exactly great in the bumper last year and although he looked like getting into contention at the bottom of the hill he never looked particularly happy. Hasn't done anythin wrong over hurdles with 4 good wins but on his best form he was 1 1/2ls better than Champagne Fever getting 3lbs. Champagne Fever won the bumper last year never having been headed from the tape. This seems to be his standard operating procedure and I am assume he will go off in front to try and gallop them into submission again. At least we don't need to worry about him not liking racing in a crowd and know he can run downhill at speed without getting unbalanced - 2 key things in a supreme. (17 of the last 21 winners had previous won a race with 14 or more winners and everyone knows how important course form is ie the ability to run up AND down hills). Good ground would be needed to see him at his best and give him a chance to front-run without getting collared up the hill. He is more than 3 times the price of Jezki at 16s which looks wrong but still couldn't back him with rain and frost forecast.
One horse that will enjoy it if it comes up soft is Melodic Rendevous who comes with pretty strong form having taken down the G1 Tolworth before smashing the G2 winner Puffin Billy the next time out but think unless we get a downpour he'll find a couple too pacey and classy for him here.
Another horse who had been making hay in the mud (if thats possible) is Un Atout who could be anything, but a chaser in the making I would be more interested in backing him for the 2014 Arkle than this years Supreme especially at 7/1.
So who does that leave us with... a horse with course form and the second highest rating in the field. A horse that has beaten last years Supreme and Triumph hurdle winners already this year and yet is still only 4th favourite - Dodging Bullets @9/1 Won't be popular with the trend boys as he breaks pretty much every trend that will be quoted between now and next Tuesday although most of them I am happy to disregard the one worry is he hasn't raced since coming 3rd in the Christmas Hurdle (a piece of form that puts him well clear of everything but MTOY). Would like to have seen him have a spin around a track in Feb but Nicholls is charge and if any man knows how to get him there right its him. The only race DB didn't win at Cheltenham was last seasons Triumph where he came a close fourth not quite making it up the hill. He has had a breathing op since then which should help. Think the commentator mentioned him once in that race before the bottom of the hill before he arrived on the scene to challenge. With CF racing like a startled hare out the front he's sure to get the pace he like and come like a train to challenge late. What better way to start the festival than dodging a bullet when the short priced 'certainty' gets turned over.
1.5pts e/w Dodging Bullets 9/1
Arkle:
' He seemed to lack moral courage and just surrendered when challenged' - that is what I had to say about Simonsig in last years preview about 12 hours before he put in one of the performances of the festival to win the Neptune by 7Ls. You would think that I would have learned my lesson at this stage given he then started his chasing career with 3 wins for a combined winning distance of 99Ls .....but I just can't bring myself to bet this guy at 4/6 in comfortably his toughest test to date. I think it might be I prefer to see a horse get into a fight and win before getting stuck in a short odds in a proper G1. So if not him then who? Not exactly like there is much strength in depth here. You would think the logical place would be last years champion hurdle second who has 3 similarly easy chase wins so far this season but I prefer to go for a horse who has actually had to race something other than Aunt Sally's, who has won 2 genuine G1 chases and has had his jumping tested to the limits already (and broken) - Arvikka Legionnaire knows what it takes to win a battle having overcome Dedigout and Oscars Wells previously and would probably have accounted for the useful Beneficient if standing up in his last race. Didn't give him the credit he deserved when he beat Dedigout thinking Russell had let him steal a soft lead but he's proved himself since then. When Simonsig wins and i'm drying my eyes with some more losing betting slips at least I can console myself with the knowledge that at least this time SImonsig will know he's been in a race
Arvika Legionaire 1 pt e/w @8/1
Champion Hurdle:
2pts Zarkander
Mares Hurdle:
Having despaired with Keats crazed ramblings I decided to turn to Shakespeare for some inspiration on this one and he gave some pretty sage advice as could be expected:
"He's mad that trusts in the tameness of a wolf, a horse's health,
a boy's love, or a whore's oath."
Every year after 10 months Quevega re-emerges from the mists of Kildare to win 2 graded races at miniscule odds without any prep race and every year as everyone else empties and then reloads their wheel-barrows proclaiming her to be the surest bet since they got that broomcupboard out in Santry for only 600k I try to stand firm and decry their insanity for what it is, and every year I gradually get poorer and they get richer and more cocky...well I guess part of Cheltenham is the traditions so here goes my attempts to topple the queen of the Cotswolds!
Actually only 1 horse i'm going to bother mentioning here because with the honourable exception of Zuzka who probably won't run here the rest of these would struggle to win a claimer in Kilbeggan. Une Artiste is a different kettle of fish though. A festival winner last year in the Fred Winter and winner of 2 listed races so far this term this is a proper filly. If Willy S is right and anything goes wrong with the fav we will be on to a good one here.
2pts ew Une Artiste.
Right thats me done for tonight - don't worry I haven't forgotten everyone's favourite ATM the cross country chase but that will have to wait til issue 2 (probably Sunday)
Supreme Novices:
All the talk here has been about JP's 2. Not hard to see why My Tent or Yours is top of the market after crushing the Betfair Hurdle off 148. That win left him with a lot of nasty stats to overcome but a fair bit better than most of horses that have previously tried this route to Supreme glory. Could have gone off second fav if he had gone for the Champion. A lot of respect for this guy but at 7/4 and the weight of history some some pretty decent horses against him I'll pass on him scaling the same heights as the betfair again so quickly.
Less deserving of his place at the top of the market is Jezki...don't get me wrong I think the Royal Bond is probably the strongest piece of Irish form to go off but 5/1? Really? Wasn't exactly great in the bumper last year and although he looked like getting into contention at the bottom of the hill he never looked particularly happy. Hasn't done anythin wrong over hurdles with 4 good wins but on his best form he was 1 1/2ls better than Champagne Fever getting 3lbs. Champagne Fever won the bumper last year never having been headed from the tape. This seems to be his standard operating procedure and I am assume he will go off in front to try and gallop them into submission again. At least we don't need to worry about him not liking racing in a crowd and know he can run downhill at speed without getting unbalanced - 2 key things in a supreme. (17 of the last 21 winners had previous won a race with 14 or more winners and everyone knows how important course form is ie the ability to run up AND down hills). Good ground would be needed to see him at his best and give him a chance to front-run without getting collared up the hill. He is more than 3 times the price of Jezki at 16s which looks wrong but still couldn't back him with rain and frost forecast.
One horse that will enjoy it if it comes up soft is Melodic Rendevous who comes with pretty strong form having taken down the G1 Tolworth before smashing the G2 winner Puffin Billy the next time out but think unless we get a downpour he'll find a couple too pacey and classy for him here.
Another horse who had been making hay in the mud (if thats possible) is Un Atout who could be anything, but a chaser in the making I would be more interested in backing him for the 2014 Arkle than this years Supreme especially at 7/1.
So who does that leave us with... a horse with course form and the second highest rating in the field. A horse that has beaten last years Supreme and Triumph hurdle winners already this year and yet is still only 4th favourite - Dodging Bullets @9/1 Won't be popular with the trend boys as he breaks pretty much every trend that will be quoted between now and next Tuesday although most of them I am happy to disregard the one worry is he hasn't raced since coming 3rd in the Christmas Hurdle (a piece of form that puts him well clear of everything but MTOY). Would like to have seen him have a spin around a track in Feb but Nicholls is charge and if any man knows how to get him there right its him. The only race DB didn't win at Cheltenham was last seasons Triumph where he came a close fourth not quite making it up the hill. He has had a breathing op since then which should help. Think the commentator mentioned him once in that race before the bottom of the hill before he arrived on the scene to challenge. With CF racing like a startled hare out the front he's sure to get the pace he like and come like a train to challenge late. What better way to start the festival than dodging a bullet when the short priced 'certainty' gets turned over.
1.5pts e/w Dodging Bullets 9/1
Arkle:
' He seemed to lack moral courage and just surrendered when challenged' - that is what I had to say about Simonsig in last years preview about 12 hours before he put in one of the performances of the festival to win the Neptune by 7Ls. You would think that I would have learned my lesson at this stage given he then started his chasing career with 3 wins for a combined winning distance of 99Ls .....but I just can't bring myself to bet this guy at 4/6 in comfortably his toughest test to date. I think it might be I prefer to see a horse get into a fight and win before getting stuck in a short odds in a proper G1. So if not him then who? Not exactly like there is much strength in depth here. You would think the logical place would be last years champion hurdle second who has 3 similarly easy chase wins so far this season but I prefer to go for a horse who has actually had to race something other than Aunt Sally's, who has won 2 genuine G1 chases and has had his jumping tested to the limits already (and broken) - Arvikka Legionnaire knows what it takes to win a battle having overcome Dedigout and Oscars Wells previously and would probably have accounted for the useful Beneficient if standing up in his last race. Didn't give him the credit he deserved when he beat Dedigout thinking Russell had let him steal a soft lead but he's proved himself since then. When Simonsig wins and i'm drying my eyes with some more losing betting slips at least I can console myself with the knowledge that at least this time SImonsig will know he's been in a race
Arvika Legionaire 1 pt e/w @8/1
Champion Hurdle:
- "Beauty is truth, truth beauty," – that is all
- Ye know on earth, and all ye need to know
2pts Zarkander
Mares Hurdle:
Having despaired with Keats crazed ramblings I decided to turn to Shakespeare for some inspiration on this one and he gave some pretty sage advice as could be expected:
"He's mad that trusts in the tameness of a wolf, a horse's health,
a boy's love, or a whore's oath."
Every year after 10 months Quevega re-emerges from the mists of Kildare to win 2 graded races at miniscule odds without any prep race and every year as everyone else empties and then reloads their wheel-barrows proclaiming her to be the surest bet since they got that broomcupboard out in Santry for only 600k I try to stand firm and decry their insanity for what it is, and every year I gradually get poorer and they get richer and more cocky...well I guess part of Cheltenham is the traditions so here goes my attempts to topple the queen of the Cotswolds!
Actually only 1 horse i'm going to bother mentioning here because with the honourable exception of Zuzka who probably won't run here the rest of these would struggle to win a claimer in Kilbeggan. Une Artiste is a different kettle of fish though. A festival winner last year in the Fred Winter and winner of 2 listed races so far this term this is a proper filly. If Willy S is right and anything goes wrong with the fav we will be on to a good one here.
2pts ew Une Artiste.
Right thats me done for tonight - don't worry I haven't forgotten everyone's favourite ATM the cross country chase but that will have to wait til issue 2 (probably Sunday)
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