The Vau Factor

Pretty flat day today so if that's the worst the week has in store for us I'll take that. Just a quick round up tonight but not at my real job on Friday so probably will have a longer post first thing Friday morning for the last days action.

JLT Chase:
In a word Vautour. Phenomenal hurdler last year who only ended up chasing because Faugheen just edged him in terms of hurdles forms in Willie's eyes. Then only ended up over 2m4f because Un de Sceaux  was a machine over 2m. I actually think he could have beaten both those horses but having ended up chasing over 2m4f there is still nothing comes close to him. Bar a fall he wins - its that simple. I think the English form is flattering Ptit Zig a little and despite being beaten by Don Poli over 3m I think Apache Stronghold will be better over that trip in time - that said he is likely to give the favourite the most to think about. Irish Saint isn't top class but might run on into a place at a bigger price. Vautour is a best of 2/1 now but I think someone probably tries to take him on in the morning and you get 9/4.

3pts Vautour best morning price
0.25pts ew Irish Saint 16/1 PP (get your win stake back as a free bet if he runs into 2nd or 3rd)

Pertemps:
Hard to get away from Brother Brians form looks very progressive and not at all harshly treated under 11-4

1pt ew Brother Brian 10/1

Ryanair:
For me a race that revolves around 3 horses. The best horse in the race is Balder Success but he won't be winning - not tomorrow. He's been to Cheltenham 3 times and his form there reads FUF. Now I would actually forgive him his last one where he fell at the second last with a low sun in his eyes. The other 2 falls however both came at the 4th last which is the first downhill jump. If you can't jump downhill at speed you are not going to win a big race at Cheltenham it really is that simple. Now so far this season Balder Success has been beaten 7ls by Dodging Bullets, 4ls by Somersby and 2ls by Special Tiara. Here is todays Champion Chase result:

15:20

Full result

1st	3 Dodging Bullets	9/2
2nd	9 Somersby (IRE)	33/1
3rd	10 Special Tiara	18/1

• Distances 1 ¼, 1 ¾

So pretty much away from Cheltenham he is a solid 4th in the Champion Chase unfortunatley at Cheltenham he is probably not going to finish the race. Now last day out he beat Ma Filluele by 3Ls and I expect her to improve from that having obviously not being fit first time out and then made to run in a sham of a race at Aintree which was effectively a 3m bumper after Aintree decided to run the race without any of the fences. Was a close second here last year to Holywell and I expect her to be there or thereabout tomorrow. The 3rd horse to look at is Taquin du Seuil who won the JLT last year but over 3m hasn't fired at all this season. If he gets his game together he will put it up to everyone here. Have to take a lot on trust but I think his price probably reflects that. I have accidently ended up with a pretty decent bet on Don Cossack  having steamed into the Champagne Fever/DC double on the logic that the market would shorten him up to 9/4 after CF won today however that didn't really work out. I think he is flattered by the form a bit getting to race a lot of good horses in situations where they were never going to perform to their best.

1.5pts ew Ma Filleule
0.5pts ew Taquin du Seuil

World Hurdle:
Really comes down to 2 horses for me here. Saphir du Rheu gave 6lbs and a beating (just) to Whisper in last seasons Welsh Champion Hurdle and then stayed on for a course and distance win in January after chasing plans were shelved for another year. See him as the most likely winner but it is possible that last years Coral Cup winner Whisper has improved enough to just deny him. Pretty confident both will place (especially if you can get the 4 places with WH) and happy to keep both on side.

1.5pts e/w Saphir du Rheu
0.75pts e/w Whisper

In the last Just a Par may be being set a more reasonable task than last years RSA but won't be heavily involved
0.25pts ew Just A Par

I got a fever and the only cure is...

Solid start to the week with Mullins delivering our 14/1 (just). On to tomorrow might not have time to cover the whole card so we'll start with the big one.

Champion Chase:
Only one bet can be considered here. Who knows how much ability Sprinter Sacre retains. As a french bred you would assume we'll never see him back close to what we remember of him from 2 years ago and couldn't be taking a chance on him at current prices. Sire de Grugy has only 16 days rest since he was given an unnecessarily hard race on bad ground under top weight and connections admitted he finished tired. The last time out was the first time Dodging Bullets had won a race past the turn of the year in his career and looks to be a winter horse for me. That only really leaves Champagne Fever who really should have made it 3/3 at the festival last year and is the only one of the principles we can trust to run to form. Very hard to see 3 horses beating him and any of the other 3 need everything to go right for them to beat CF. One of the each way bets of the week imo.

3.5pts e/w Champagne Fever

Neptune:
Have been picking up bits and pieces on Outlanders at 6/1 for the past few weeks so probably won't have any more down on this race but I still rate Outlander the best bet. Nichols Canyon probably should and would have gone for the Supreme if Douvan wasn't there. Not convinced 2m 5f is his trip and may be found wanting up the hill. Windsor Park is probably going to improve a bit for the ground but has enough to find with the selection to only be 1 pt bigger and the biggest danger may be Parlour Games who has course and distance form however I can't help feel that possibly Blaklion is a bit over-rated and the Vyta de Roc may have found the trip a little sharp last time at Newbury so possible the form isn't as good as first looks.

1 pt e/w Outlander 4/1

RSA:
In a horrible situation on this one between the horse I think will win and the horse I think is value. I think Don Poli will win but at 7/4 I'm in no rush to get overly involved. He has course form and won one of the best novice chases in Ireland at Leopardstown over the Christmas and comfortably holds most of the field on previous form. I'm probably being overly harsh on King's Palace but given I still have nightmares about how easily he folded 2 out last year I couldn't consider backing him at 4/1. Which really only leaves the value bet of the race Southfield Theatre. The fact that he gave Jetson 8lbs and a 2 length beating in the Pertemps last year when just succumbing to a resurgent Fingal Bay is possibly a bit over looked. Was disappointing the last day against Melodic Rendevous but I expect the extra half mile here to see him in a better light (I hope).

1pt e/w Southfield Theatre 15/2

Coral Cup:
Biggest regret of the festival so far is missing the opening chalk of 33/1 on Dell Arca this evening. At current prices nothing jumping out but will tweet any change of heart tomorrow.

Cross Country:
Sire Collonges looks the stand out bet here given his course form, age and weight profile.

1.5pts ew @15/2

Bumper:
Don't normally get involved here but might have a nibble on Stone Hard. Its interesting that pretty much everyone asked about Willie's bumper horses will talk about Bordini and Bellshill but then can't stop themselves talking about SH's temprement. In the mayhem of a champion bumper that counts for a lot (and its not like he form is too shabby either). Will only be pennies but nice to for once have a root in the gamblefest of the week

Sometimes you win, sometimes the fish win - this time lets hope its both

Finally after a dark 362 days we are finally on the verge of another Cheltenham. Day 1 is a day that for a long time I thought I wouldn't really be involved in betting-wise struggling to find something to go to war against Mullins hotpots with before eventually coming to my senses and largely surrendering to the inevitability that once again it will be a 'Ruby Tuesday' (wish there were markets on how many times that headline will be used in the next 2 days!) The fish have to win sometimes to keep them interested in the game and tomorrow is a day for the fish but that doesn't mean we can't mop it up too.
There are a couple of spots where e/w betting means it makes sense to make a small stand against him but in at least 3 of the 4 big races he is so far clear of the opposition his biggest danger is the fences

Supreme Novices:
Normally I would scoff at 2/1 on Douvan, a horse that has never raced in a big field, never been put under pressure and largely has had it pretty much all his own way on soft ground so far....however lets look at the competition:
L'ami Serge - solid form but as a second season novice seems like we have probably seen all the improvement their is to see and I'm a little sceptical he will find the improvement necessary to win a Supreme.
Jollyallen - will make a mistake at some point with his jumping and will need a big step up in this department as much as anything to try to threaten.
Everything else bar the pretty average ex-flat racer Qewy has spent most of the winter having Douvan kick dirt in their faces on Willie Mullins gallops so off the limited amount we've seen on them it would be a brave man to say Ruby and Willie have got this one wrong. Paddy Power are giving you a free bet when your horse gets beaten by Douvan so if you really need to have a bet at the current prices a small e/w on Shaneshill to follow in his stablemate could be the call. I'll probably sit this one out (kind of) unless Douvan gets out to 5/2ish though

Arkle:
The biggest danger to Un de Sceuax (possibly the only danger) are the 3rd and 4th last fences when he turns downhill and jumps those 2 fences at the breakneck speed he will be travelling. The foundations for his win was his annihilation of Clarcam and Gilgamboa the last day in Leopardstown - after that pretty much every decent novice chaser decided they should find a different target and the field filled up with a lot of average horses looking to place in an Arkle that bar the favourite has no strength in depth. In doing so he pretty much guaranteed that any doubt about his front-running tactics and dislike of better ground are unlikely to really matter.
Vibrato Valtat is better away from Cheltenham and even then is average at best having just seen off Three Kingdoms at Kempton over Christmas. The only thing Josses Hill has shown us in his chase career so far is that he can't jump and despite a good run here over hurdles last year he's have to be at least twice the price to tempt me to trust him to pull it all togethere when it matters here given what we've seen of him so far. Clarcam was beaten out of sight the last day getting 10lbs and fell when asked to jump the downhill hurdles here last year and given his unusual preparation I would guess connections have been having some trouble with Sgt Reckless this year and that this is more of an after thought. Given the weakness of those behind the market leader some of the bigger prices could easily fill the minor places here. Smashing was outclassed by the 2 best novices in Ireland on his first 2 runs this season before making easy work of an egg and spoon race in Naas the last day. Ran into a place here last year and could sneak the same again here. God's Own lost his way over the winter but there was enough in his runs at the backend of last year and first time out this year to suggest that if they have got his confidence back (bad jumping blunders to blame for last 2 runs) he could easily outrun his 40/1 odds.
Paddy Power are again giving you your win stake back as a free bet when UdS wins so having a small e/w interest on Smashing and Gods Own
0.5pts ew Smashing 25/1
0.5pts ew Gods Own 40/1

Champion Hurdle
Looked at this at the weekend and didn't want to bet it at all with market looking pretty much right. I think Faugheen is going to win but think his price is probably about fair. I would love to see Hurricane Fly win it but unfortunately this is one fairytale I just can't believe in. All season I've been of the opinion that Jezki each way was one of the bets of the festival but the last few days I've started to think I've been making too many excuses for him. Yes he has been trained all season with one day in mind and yes he will be a better horse around Cheltenham but even the last day when 3 from home he had The Fly dead and buried he was still a beaten horse by the time The Fly was looming on his outside as he stumbled at the last. It's one thing making excuses for a horse but you expect that the price lengthen to compensate you for that when in fact the opposite has happened. On the other hand The New One has got nothing but criticism despite coming to Cheltenham unbeaten. Yes he didn't have close to the opposition Jezki had but he always did enough and wasn't exactly wound up for the last race. Ran a decent race in defeat last year and even though I think his jumping is probably just short of whats needed from a champion I do see him running to a similar level to last year which is something I wouldn't be sure about from the rest of those reopposing. I think if Faugheen is found out he will be the one that does it. One outside to mention also is Kitten Rock. A bit young to be winning this but was impressed with his destruction of Tiger Roll the last day at Gowran. If they price up some match bets in the morning vs Bertimont or Vaniteaux they are probably worth a look.

1.5pts e/w The New One 4/1

Mares Hurdle:
Not a lot to say here. Annie Power will win. However couldn't resist the each way thieving on Glens Melody and have backed here at 6/1. 6/4 on the place looks pretty juivy even if we are giving away our win part.


Looking back over the preview above you've probably noticed a common theme - Willie Mullins. I had been considering just lumping on a big accumulator on the 4 favourites sure in the knowledge that each Mullins horse than wins is going to force the next one to go off shorter then I discovered a much better bet. A lot of bookies are pricing up the number of winners Mullins will have on day 1 and bet365 are 14/1 for 4 or more which means you not only have the favourites running for you but all of his second strings which in 2 cases are the 2nd most likely winners imo. Also he has a 16/1 runner in the 4 miler just in case you find yourself 1 short after all the G1's.

The other races are a little less straight forward but have a few sprouting thoughts:

Ultima Chase:
Top 8 look to have too much weight. Ned Stark tried to fall at the first downhill fence on his last visit to Chelt and have my doubts he'll make the finish line this time. Gallant Oscar was laid out for the Thystes and didn't quite pull it off so have to feel like this is more an after thought although still obviously well handicapped. There seems a lot of confidence behind Evan Williams Barrakilla however he's never won over 3 miles and there has to be some doubts about whether he will see this out. Gevrey Chambertins course form of P9P should be enough for even the most reckless punter to be swerving him. So who does that leave - Pendra who has obviously been kept for this since last season but is priced at 7/1 and Smart Freddy who was well beaten over too short a trip by 2 good novices but before that had 2 solid wins over 3 miles to his name. Carrying 10-7 and priced at 33/1 i'm willing to take my chances on the latter.

0.5pts ew Smart Freddy 33/1

In the last the favourite looks about right to me - great run here last year behind Don Poli and although probably a bit flattered to how close he came to Vibrat Valtat and Three Kingdoms he should be able to get involved off this weight. Little more of a watching brief here though
0.25pts ew Thomas Crapper

King size bet to finish off the week

OK another small profit eeked out with a few disappointments along the way. Unfortunately due to othe committments it is going to be a fairly short blog tonight but the plan is to try and find time between Ukrainian riots to tweet any thoughts on the other races if I have time to pick through them. The dormant @Gambrose888 will have anything not covered here.

Albert Barlett:
Might as well start with my bet of the week. See this as a 2 horse race and have been holding off on having a bet until the mountain of cash looking to get long Briar's Hill has had an impact on the price. This guy could go off evens favourite creating massive value on Kings Palace. 2 runs at Cheltenham (including one over this distance) and 2 wins by a combined 32 lengths. Briar's Hill has good form too but winning the bumper here is no guarantee of future festival success. I really see it as a race between the 2 of them but with Kings Palace 3 times the price of Briars Hill he has to be backed. Also given his price and how far clear these 2 should be of the rest I'll be going ew here too. He's 7/2 currently but I'd be pretty confident that 4s will be offered at some point on him tomorrow.

5pts e/w Kings Palace 7/2 or better

Gold Cup:
I sided with Bob's Worth against Silviniaco Conti last year and despite a less fluent preparation this year I think he will maintain his phenomenal Cheltenham record. Have never quite talked myself around to being an SC fan and he prob looks slightly flattered by his King George win when Cue Card stopped dead. At the current prices I can readily oppose him. Likewise with Last Instalment, after 2 years off the track this will be his 3rd race in 60 days and without an in depth knowledge of the drugs that were found in Fentons yard I would imagine he is likely not to show his best here today. His stablemate on the other hand probably is not quite good enough to win this and should run well enough to claim a place. First Lieutenant has a festival record of 122 with only Bobs Worth and Cue Card beating him - expect to see him close to his best and making the frame even if not quite doing enough to bring home the cup. Another horse who is probably overpriced is The Giant Bolster who has been 2nd and 4th in the last 2 Gold Cups. He won the Argento here back in Jan and another big run is expected here. Hopefully he can do enough to edge into a place.

1pt Bob Worth 2/1 or better
1.5pts First Lieutenant to place BSP
0.5pts The Giant Bolster to place BSP

Give Powers Whisky a shot

Nice solid day today with 2 winners and profit on every race, but lets not get carried away yet – its half time and theres a lot more racing to come including my bt of the week… but that’s not until Friday.

Hopefully we can dig out a few winners in tomorrows card first which on the whole looks a tougher ask than today.

JLT Novices:

I have an ante-post slip on Wonderful Charm for this but apparently he had a setback a few weeks back and not had the ideal preparation for this. Not a race I think the Irish can win with Felix Yonger looking overhyped although he should improve for the better ground after getting turned over in the mud the last 2 times. I don’t see that much between him and the possibly under-rated Djackadam but would be surprised if either are good enough to win this. Mozoltov could spring a shock but I doubt it.

Of the English Oscar Whisky has pretty much beaten everyone else although was getting 8lbs from Wonderful Charm when he won by 1/2l over course and distance. I think 2m5f on good ground is his perfect conditions and people who talk of him not being a festival horse should remember he was 3^rd to Hurricane Fly in a Champion Hurdle here 3 years ago before being sent over distances to long for him. At the age of 9 he’s not getting any younger but I still think this is his chance for the festival win he deserves although if Wonderful Charm is 100% he’ll have a proper battle on his hand. Taquin du Soleil might make a clean sweep of the places for the English here and isn’t far off Oscar Whisky on previous form.

1pt e/w Oscar Whisky 6/1

Pertemps:

As close to no opinion as possible. But If In Doubt was ½l off Fingal Bay the last time when only out for a jog. Large chance of a bounce from Fingal Bay on his second run back from a long layoff (although even top weight might not stop him if he is as good as he used to be) Tentatively put a few shillings on If In Doubt.

.25pts e/w If In Doubt 8/1

Ryanair:

One of the easiest races of the meeting to analyse. Beneficient jumped like a stag last year when beating Dynaste by 3 1/2ls to win the Jewson – no reason to expect any change in the result this year. A lot of other horses are here after Plan A didn’t work out which is not the ideal preparation and can be readily discounted.

2pts e/w Beneficient 4/1

World Hurdle:

Where to start? The 4 times champ or the 2014 champion. Lets start with Big Bucks, a machine of a horse with 4 titles but 11yo and coming back from an injury he was flattered by how bad the competition was the last day in the Cleeve when Knockara Beau (who doesn’t even line up here) put the nail in afew of these runners title ambitions. At Fishers Cross seems to have forgotton how to jump this year and I suppose you could make the case he was comfortable the best horse in the Cleeve jumping aside but with 12 hurdles from start to finish for him to attempt to demolish it’s hard to justify getting involved here.

I think for the second time this week in Championship races McCoy has got it wrong. More of that actually looks like a proper 3m hurdler who has posted a couple of big runs this year and has the most room for improvement of any of these. I’m a big fan of this horse but unfortunately for him due to the quality of the Champion Hurdle he now has to race against the best mare since Dawn Run (and I include my nemesis Quevega in that). 10/10 she’s never even been off the bridle to beat some top class opponents. I really can not see her getting beaten. The trip is an unknown but she looks like she should stay.

Fortunately Paddy Power are giving us a way to cash in either way – Moneyback if second to Annie Power (max 50). So I will take her to win and have an ew cover on More of That

2.5pts win Annie Power 6/4 now but hopefully some bookie will try to take her on in the morning and we get 7/4

1 pt ew More of That 10/1

Byrne Plate:

No strong opinions here. Third Intention looks like the right profile around the 14/1 but a nominal interest if any for me.

Kim Muir:

I was impressed with the way Indian Castle beat Annacotty on trials day and is a worthy favourite. Find someone offering 5 places and have a nibble.

0.5pts Indian Castle 7/1

Time to finally show due respect for the Sire

A sad day overall with a small profit being over shadowed by Our Conor's fatal fall. Made the day feel like a defeat even if we do have our noses ahead. I suppose we can take some consolation though from the fact that there is at least some chance Quevega will be retired by next year so we won't feel obliged to set fire to any more cash on the mare's hurdle. On to tomorrow it looks like a busy day with some small bits of edge without ever getting to unleash with both barrels.

Neptune Hurdle:
Let's just be clear from the start Faugheen might have the same colours, the same jockey, the same trainer as Vautour but I don't rate him nearly as highly as his stablemate and it is hard to understand him going off a shorter price to win than Vautour. He doesn't jump as well, isn't battle hardened and apparently hasn't had the most fluent of preparations since Christmas so to be honest I think if WM is to win this it will be his second string Rathvinden that does the business. Second here on trials day to the very good Red Sherlock giving away 3lb he might just improve past him of the much better ground tomorrow. It's hard not to like Red Sherlock unbeaten in 6 starts including over course and distance but with the going looking on the firm side of good despite the official description I think he might just get done here by a faster horse. Royal Boy is interesting especially given Josses Hill's run in the Supreme today - take Vautour out of the picture and you would have said he won  a standard enough renewal of the Supreme..last time out Royal Boy beat him 1/2l in the Tolworth. One big concern I have though is that the only time he raced on ground better than soft (which admittedly was a chase) was his worst performance on a racecourse and given his injury profile perhaps he needs a big more give in the ground. I think he will shorten on the day but I just can't quite bring myself to part with cash on him so will have a small interest on Ruby being wrong on the stables best in this.

0.5pts e/w Rathvinden 7/1

RSA Chase:
The betting for this race is proof if any was needed that if Willie Mullins put a saddle on me and told the world Ruby would be getting up on me the bookies would make me favourite for something at the festival. How people could think they are getting value backing Ballycasey is beyond me. He has lost every time he has tackled 3m before (in PTPs and a G1 hurdle when not staying behind Morning Assembly) and any time he has raced over a shorter trip he has won. You really want to bet cash on this lad getting up the hill in front?
Carlingford Lough looks short of the class needed to win this (2 wins in 13 chases) and may struggle to ping his fences at the speed required. I think Morning Assembly is slightly better and will appreciate the trip more but comes without a prep run and off the back of a defeat to Carlingfor Lough so if I had to back an Irish horse I would probably have to side with Don Cossack whose form is pretty much on a par with the first 3 mentioned except that he will appreciate both the better ground and the step up in trip, throw in the fact that he is nearly twice the price and he starts to look a little appealing.
2 of the English challengers catch the eye. Smad Place who has been placed in 2 world hurdles and seems to have got his jumping together after falling first time out. Not sure he is quite good enough to win this but hard to see him out of the frame if his jumping holds up and he is my ante-post bet.
The other interesting horse is Annacotty - probably a little young to win this but has won a G1 over 3 miles and very nearly won the novice handicap chase here on trials day under top weight. Given how poor I rate a lot of the horse here its hard not to have a few pence down at 25/1

.5pts e/w Don Cossack 14/1
.25pts e/w Annacotty 25/1
1 pt Smad Place to be placed Betfair SP

Coral Cup:
I had been going to put up Dell Arca here but he has been cut from 16's to 12's since I left work and that combined with the possibility that he left his race in the Newbury mud when coming 2nd in the Betfair hurdle. Smashing probably didn't have as much taken out of him being interfered with and hampered on the run in so 5lbs better off here and twice the price might be worth a small nibble.

.25pts e/w Smashing 25/1


Champion Chase
I'll admit that it took me a while to come around to Sire de Grugy as a bet here but a lot of that were the ludicrous' prices being quoted about him winning this race over the spring. Now all of a sudden everyone seems to have a different trend or stat that proves beyond doubt that he cant win and as a result he is not at a very backable price. Yes pretty much every horse that has ever beaten him is lining up tomorrow but since he began his 2 stone rise in the ratings only one horse has beaten him - Kid Cassidy who mugged him at Cheltenham in November and that was when receiving 10lbs. SdG jumped terribly that day and if anything gets him beat it will be his jumping because other than that he holds everyone here on all known form. He beat the 2nd fav by 7 lengths that last time they met and Arvika Legionnaire ended up pulled up in last years Arkle. Baily Green is priced up off 1 race coming second in last years Arkle and despite the great record of Arkle winners in this race he has done nothing since so happy to overlook him.

2.5pts Sire de Grugy 3/1

Cross Country
One of the best value races of the meeting with the same horse and trainers dominating time after time. Despite the cash coming for Star Neuville I think people may be underestimating theunique demands of this course when pricing him up so short. I see this revolving around 3 horses. The current champion Big Shu, the previous champion Balthazar King and new kid on the block Love Rory. The only one with questions to answer is Love Rory who beat Big Shu in the Risk of Thunder Chase in Punchestown over the winter. That was over 3m, this is 3m 7f the question is will he stay that as a 6 yo? I'm not sure but priced at 12/1 I'm willing to find out. In fact all 3 should be backed to fight out the places here as with top 4 getting paid the e/w value is usually huge given the domination a handful of horse have here.

1pt e/w Lover Rory 10.1
1pt e/w Big Shu 5/1
1pt e/w Balthazar King 7/1

You're on your own for the last 2 - although might be worth mentioning Paul Nicholls felt his nap of the meeting is a horse making its English debut Katgary around the 10/1 mark. If I do anything it might be to nibble at that.

The Usual Suspects

Right the countdown clock is into hours not days and the bookies are lining up to let us take their cash so lets not disappoint!

Supreme:
For people just looking for a reasonable sized bet on this race that actually have access to a paddy power account they are money-back on this race if your horse comes 2nd, 3rd or 4th which is pretty big edge in itself. (max e50). Hopefully we'll find the winner and save you the hassle of relying on their generousity.
I am not a fan of Irving here and predictably enough now that the Irish cash has started to land in England he is starting to drift. Not really convinced that the Dovecote was all that good a race and given the RP comments read 'not always fluent....hit 2 out...guessed at the last' hard to be convinced his jumping will be sharp enough at breakneck speed to win this. Comments in all of his 4 hurdle races make reference to his jumping by the way so not an isolated experience.
Vautour has comfortably the best piece of form as I see it from beating the Tullow Tank cosily the last day. Some doubts as to whether TTT was 100% but the gap from these 2 back to 3rd makes me think he wasn't far off. (Going into this race if pushed I probably would have had TTT as my supreme pick). Vautour is a slick jumper with a high cruising speed and can see him running a very similar race to Champagne Fever last year leading from the off and galloping them all into submission. Has had the benefit of being made to battle by Western Boy in Punchestown 2 starts back and expect to see him come out on top again if anything does get close enough to eyeball him coming up the hill.
Wicklow Brave will be a good horse in time but a big step up from the 2 egg and spoon races he's already won over hurdles and think Ruby had an easy enough choice in picking Vautour.
Of the rest if there is to be an English winner I think their best chance in the Liquidator who was a facile winner over course and distance in November before running horrendously when obviously not right in the Tolworth. If they have him right for this he should be in the frame although with an obviously less than ideal preparation it is hard to see him quite do enough to win it.
Western Boy will win some good races but I don't think this will be one of them - flatter tracks and softer ground may turn out to be the key to him in time.

3pts win Vautour 3/1
.25pts e/w The Liquidator 22/1

Arkle:
This preview would be very different if I wrote it 24 hours ago. Not because there has been any big news or change in conditions but I think I am finally starting to convince myself that Dodging Bullets won't actually win. DB is a tease, 3 wins from 5 at Cheltenham but none at the festival. Spends the winters beating very good horses making it look inevitable that victory at the festival is ensured before disappointing on the big day. Has never won a race past the turn of the year and has 3 G2 wins but a best of 3rd in the 4 G1s contested - maybe he is just not as good as I've always thought him to be. Throw in the fact that he has had a break of 31 days since going down a neck to Module in the Newbury mud and I can't be having him at odds of only 5/1 (there go all the festival accumulators!)
So who then? Champagne Fever? 2 from 2 at the festival but only 2 ever chase starts and a big mistake at the 2nd last the last day. He does always save his best for the festival but at 5/2 I couldn'tbe backing him. Chasing has been an afterthought for Rock on Ruby and having only beaten 2 horses in his entire chase career is not hard to oppose here. Grandouet shouldn't be good enough and looks held by DB so only leaves 1 horse left to back - Trifolium. 3rd in the Supreme 2 years ago a neck behind last years one time Champion Hurdle fav Darlan we know he can get around the track alright. He beat CF when he made his mistake at Christmas and then gave Felix Yonger a proper beating the last day altough maybe slightly flattered by FY running below form on the ground.
Given the doubts around everything else I'm happy to risk a small bet here and with BetPack moneyback if second to Ruby's CF (e25 max) we should be covered if CF is as good as Mullins yard think he is.

.75pts e/w Trifolium 9/2

Champion Hurdle:
Comfortably the race of the meeting and the best Champion hurdle I can remember. The thing about legendary horses is they do things that seem impossible, things that should be impossible by the laws of time and nature. Think Kautos last King George, think Frankels 2000 Guineas think Long Run winning anything with a crash test dummy strapped to his back. That is the realm Hurricane Fly is in. 21 wins from 24 starts including 19 G1's and 9 on the bounce now since 2 years ago when he wasn't right coming here and still came 3rd. Already the best hurdler in at least a decade and possibly ever if he wins tomorrow they're going to run out of parts of the Cotswolds to rename after him. Can a 10 yo win a Champion Hurdle? Usually the answer is no but actually this guy could do it. Talk that he is not at his best around Cheltenham is nonsense. He's lost once here when he obviously wasn't right and destroyed some proper horse on his other 2 visits. His only real problem is the fact that this isn't just any champion hurdle - this is the best champion hurdle in my lifetime. Any one of the big 4 would be a worthy champion in a normal year (in fact in a normal year Annie Power would be lining up a short price fav to emulate Dawn Run but instead is re-routed due to the phenomenal strength in depth here).
The New One - would he really have gotten past MTOY without a mistake at the last at Christmas? Maybe but can we trust him not to do the same again when asked to jump at speed? Probably not. Of the top 4 the only one I never considered having a bet on to be honest. Short enough for the horse with the most flaws of the big 4.
MTOY - this guy is good very good. Better than he showed in the Supreme last year where he was coming off the back of a less than ideal preparation picking up the Betfair Hurdle en route to Cheltenham. Should be seen at his best this year and McCoy will get the best out of him. Solid jumper and knows how to fight but might just fall short in an epic renewal.
Our Conor - what a machine, that was my thoughts on this horse last year and they haven't changed much since. Hasn't had a stellar season this year but this has been the focus and things have been building nicely.

I think Hurricane Fly will be carried out on his shield like the true warrior he is with Our Conor peaking at just the right time, improving just enough to edge out him out with MTOY fighting on for 3rd. But if not we could be witnessing something truely special.

2pt e/w Out Conor 5/1

Mares Hurdle:
I could probably copy and paste this preview from any of the previous 3 years of this race. Once more going to oppose Quevega once more going to get my pants pulled down as she does the impossible of winning a G2 at the festival from a 10 month lay off. We even have old age on our side this year with her turning 10. Surely sooner or later I'm bound to get this race right....right?

Anyway Cockney Sparrow was 2nd in a Fighting Fifth before falling the last time out as Annie Power galloped all her rivals into submission. Looks a classy horse and hopefully for once the grinch in me gets rewarded as someone finally puts an end to this fairytale.

1.5pts e/w Cockney Sparrow 10/1

No real thoughts on the other 3 races. Back tomorrow with all of Wednesdays action covered