It's been a long tortuous winter but finally spring is here and that can mean only one thing - its time for the Irish to pack their bags and head to the Cotwolds for another lorryload of cash and prizes. Fortunately you don't have to make the long trip over though to get the cash with plenty of bookies more than willing to top up your wheelbarrows closer to home. No fantastic specials like last year with most 'specials' nothing but gimmicks to get you in the door playing the virtual dogs but hopefully with a little but of careful planning we can still seperate them from their cash. No all in lumps on Day 1 but a few little bits and pieces of value and hopefully a bit more will emerge tomorrow morning when the bookies actually start to take opinions (so keep an eye on twitter over the day)
Supreme:
Looks like the Irish will dominate this again. Min is favourite having cruised to 2 wins over the winter without coming off the bridle. The main arguement Ive heard as to why he is a weak favourite is that he is not as good as Douvan or Vautour - the last 2 winners of this. That may be true but trust me none of the other horses in this are in that league either. He's favourite and deserves to be but 9/4-5/2 seems about right for a horse who despite his undoubted abillity has never really had to fight it out in his races. Probably the strongest arguement in his favour is that Graham Wylie thought it was better to take his horse Yorkhill off to fight Yanworth rather than take on Min at his optimum trip. Yanworth and Yorkhill have won the 2 best competitive novice hurdles of the winter and surely would have avoided each other if Yorkhill wasnt second best in the Mullins yard. Find it hard to like the 2 Henderson horses who are next in the market with Altior showing all the signs of a flat track bully when smashing things up in Kempton over Christmas while Buveur D'air beat some pretty average types in his 2 starts. If you want some value in the race I think you could do a lot worse than take a look at Supasundae who smashed previous Cheltenham bumper winner Silver Concorde by 13Ls in a novice hurdle over Christmas and obviously has a decent turn of foot having beaten Yanworth and Thistlecrack in his bumper days. For me he looks the only value in the race at the minute.
1.5pts e/w Supasundae 14/1
Arkle:
Douvan wins. Its that simple. He's 2/5 though so no one is likely to get rich backing that. I've come around to Vaniteax over the season. Before Christmas when adivsing everyone to back Ar Mad (the best 2m chaser in Britain) at Kempton I dismissed him as a hype horse. He put up a great showing that day to lose by 1/4L and I pretty quickly had to re-assess. He got within 6Ls of Vautour in a Supreme and if he gets as close to Douvan he should easily pick up second ahead of Sizing John. Comments from Henderson today that even he doesn't believe Douvan can be beaten and that Vaniteux will be ridden to get his best finishing position ie. 2nd mean if you haven't already taken bigger prices on Vaniteaux w/o Douvan then 7/4 is a decent price.
1pt Vaniteux (w/o Douvan) 7/4
Ultima Handicap:
Very unusual to see a horse go from being 4th in a gold cup 1 year to contesting this the next but thats whats has happened to Holywell with things not really working out for him since last year. Twice a festival winner though he is a horse that comes alive in the spring that said although I couldn't make a great case to tell people not to back him I think McLernon may have made a mistake in not choosing his stable mate Beg to Differ who followed up what was nothing more than a solid 2nd here on New Years Day with a very impressive win at Doncaster the last day. He went up 10lbs for that but there should still be more improvement to come from this 6 yo. Of the others at the top of the market Kruzlinin has the national as his main aim and will probably be more than happy running into a place here. Out Sam is probably the best handicapped horse in the race but racing in a big field on a track that likely wont suit means I can easily overlook the weight he has in hand
0.75pts e/w Beg to Differ 14/1
Champion Hurdle:
Annie Power hasn't had more than a training gallop in any race in the 2 years since More of That outstayed here in the World Hurdle a very classy mare but very skinny price with so many uncertainties on her first full blooded race in a long time. 2 years ago she would have won this race on the bridle but don't really fancy taking 2/1 to find out if that is still the case. Nichols Canyon is a horse I really like but think the Aintree hurdle is really the race for him - the difference in performance last year between the Neptune and the Mersey hurdle was pretty stark. Still think he will do enough to hold Identity Thief who has pretty close form with Top Notch who now looks the best of the top 3 in last years Triumph who all line up here and so I would also discount them too (although don't be surprised if Top Notch sneaks a place). All that leaves is The New One who without ever looking overly impressive this year has still beaten all in front of him with the exception of Faugheen. He possibly should have won this race 2 years ago and it really is now or never this time around. I think in a pretty open race he finally might have his time.
1.5 pts ew The New One 6/1
0.25pts ew Top Notch 18/1
Mares Hurdle:
Very hard to make a case against Vroum Vroum Mag who has won 8 in a row now on the bridle. Would expect Polly Peachum and a rehabilitated Bitofapuzzle to fight out the minor places like last year.
2.5pts Vroum Vroum Mag 11/10
0.5pts ew Polly Peachum 6/1
0.5pts ew Bitofapuzzle 16/1
National Hunt Chase
Easiest race of the day for me. Noble Endevour just failed to give 5lb to Killultagh Vic by a nostril last year and that horse would be favourite for the JLT if it wasn't for injury. Hasn't done anything wrong since and has been laid out for this all season. Back with confidence.
2.5pts ew Noble Endevour 7/1
Novice Handicap Chase
Trickiest race on the card and a lot to sift through. The one thing that stands out as possibly being overlooked is French recruit Rezorbi. Had a few wins in France before moving to Jonjo's yard and was just starting to move into contention on trials day before coming down 3 out. Worth a nibble.
0.5pts ew Rezorbi
Monday, 14 March 2016
Thursday, 12 March 2015
Time to make a Kill-ing
One day left to try and separate the bookies from their cash. Looks a trappy day but some value about if you dig deep enough.
Triumph:
Interesting that Ruby has decided to ride Dicosimo ahead of Kalkir as he looks a soft ground horse to me. Of the Irish the one that appeals is Petite Parisienne who looks to have the right profile for this race and even though she'll need to improve on what she showed the last day she looks progressive and having the won on the flat over 1m2f in France she probably has a better blend of speed and stamina than the other Irish runners. The English challenge is pretty much Nicky Henderson (think Beltor will be found wanting in this company). Of the Henderson crew Hargam might actually be their best suited to this with very solid flat form and some experience over the course earlier in the season. I have a slight perference for Petite Parisienne at these prices although will keep Hargam onside also.
1.5pts ew Petite Parisienne 11/1
.5 pts ew Hargam 7/1
County Hurdle:
Without going into this in too much depth it would seem to be a very brave (and for brave read stupid) man that tries to oppose the Martin plot horse here. Course form and off since a close third in the Caesarewich to protect his mark for this he could make 13/2 look very generous by 2.05 tomorrow.
1pt e/w Quick Jack 13/2
Albert Bartlett:
Couldn't have either of the top 2 in the market here. Black Hercules looks the ultimate hype horse - has never down anything special and the only time he's raced anything a step up from a shetland pony was in last years bumper where he came 4th. (giving him a pass on the Punchestown bumper where he was pretty much pulled up). Not entirely convinced that there was anything particularly wrong with NMH the last travelled fine for most of the race and just didn't look good enough at the end. Looking back at that race the standout horse for this race is surely Martello Tower who was just beaten by Outlander over a trip too short for him (just about got the better of Outlander over Christmas over 3m). He had some good horse behind him that day managing to beat Killutagh Vic (more on him later) and Windsor Park by 1 and 2 lengths respectively. The step up in trip will improve him and every last drop of rain forecast tonight will also help. Blaklion carries the English hopes as talented though he is Caracci Apache looks too crazy to be trusting your money with. Was very impressive in Cheltenham in December although on a strict line of form through Parlour games he would look to have a small bit to find with Martello Tower.
1.5pts ew Martello Tower
1pt place Blaklion
Gold Cup
What a mess of a race. Went through all the runners and by the end I had a cast iron reason for each of them why it was impossible for them to win. For some reason people in Ireland seem to rate Carlingford Lough as our great white hope for this race. If you are one of these people go back and watch the end of last years RSA - turning for home he has his chance. If he was good enough to win a GC he would have been good enough to win a poor enough RSA from there (instead of getting beaten back to 6th). Would say the same as regards Silvi Conti and last years GC. Djackadam is still a baby and his Thyestes win is way over-rated. Bobs Worth is over the hill and the over-night rain prob just tip the scales against Holywell and my previous pick Lord Windermere. So that leaves Many Couds and Coneygree. In a marginal call on a very marginal bet I'm going to side with Coneygree and hope that connections are rewarded for their bravery in trying to take this down rather than going the novice route of the RSA - at 8 this is probably his best chance in a weak renewal.
0.5pts ew Coneygree 10/1
Hunter Chase
Think the combination of overnight rain and having Nina Carberry ride makes it very hard to get away from a bet on On the Fringe here especially given the 4 places. Even if Salsify is back to 100% a bit of juice in the ground could see him struggle to get to grips with On The Fringe and I would be very skeptical of Paint the Clouds UK form although SWC's safe jumping should see him run on into a place.
On The Fringe 1.5 pts e/w
Martin Pipe:
I really did not expect my bet of the day (one of the bets of the meeting) to come in the Martin Pipe but you look down through all the horses laid out for this race and scan down the page then just as you get to the bottom you see a proper G2 horse running off bottom weight...seems flat out wrong to me. Killultagh Vic beat Windors Park the last time out when running behind (hopefully the AB winner) Martello Tower. He's the best horse in the race and gets weight from most of his competitors.
2.5pts ew Killultagh Vic 10/1
Grand Annual:
Would usually already be at the bar by the time this kicks off happy to wait another year for my gambling fix but given the ridiculous price of Ned Buntline seem unlikely I'll be able to resist a bet against him here. At the minute Blood Cotil looks to be my pick against him but that could change when I look into it more tomorrow
Triumph:
Interesting that Ruby has decided to ride Dicosimo ahead of Kalkir as he looks a soft ground horse to me. Of the Irish the one that appeals is Petite Parisienne who looks to have the right profile for this race and even though she'll need to improve on what she showed the last day she looks progressive and having the won on the flat over 1m2f in France she probably has a better blend of speed and stamina than the other Irish runners. The English challenge is pretty much Nicky Henderson (think Beltor will be found wanting in this company). Of the Henderson crew Hargam might actually be their best suited to this with very solid flat form and some experience over the course earlier in the season. I have a slight perference for Petite Parisienne at these prices although will keep Hargam onside also.
1.5pts ew Petite Parisienne 11/1
.5 pts ew Hargam 7/1
County Hurdle:
Without going into this in too much depth it would seem to be a very brave (and for brave read stupid) man that tries to oppose the Martin plot horse here. Course form and off since a close third in the Caesarewich to protect his mark for this he could make 13/2 look very generous by 2.05 tomorrow.
1pt e/w Quick Jack 13/2
Albert Bartlett:
Couldn't have either of the top 2 in the market here. Black Hercules looks the ultimate hype horse - has never down anything special and the only time he's raced anything a step up from a shetland pony was in last years bumper where he came 4th. (giving him a pass on the Punchestown bumper where he was pretty much pulled up). Not entirely convinced that there was anything particularly wrong with NMH the last travelled fine for most of the race and just didn't look good enough at the end. Looking back at that race the standout horse for this race is surely Martello Tower who was just beaten by Outlander over a trip too short for him (just about got the better of Outlander over Christmas over 3m). He had some good horse behind him that day managing to beat Killutagh Vic (more on him later) and Windsor Park by 1 and 2 lengths respectively. The step up in trip will improve him and every last drop of rain forecast tonight will also help. Blaklion carries the English hopes as talented though he is Caracci Apache looks too crazy to be trusting your money with. Was very impressive in Cheltenham in December although on a strict line of form through Parlour games he would look to have a small bit to find with Martello Tower.
1.5pts ew Martello Tower
1pt place Blaklion
Gold Cup
What a mess of a race. Went through all the runners and by the end I had a cast iron reason for each of them why it was impossible for them to win. For some reason people in Ireland seem to rate Carlingford Lough as our great white hope for this race. If you are one of these people go back and watch the end of last years RSA - turning for home he has his chance. If he was good enough to win a GC he would have been good enough to win a poor enough RSA from there (instead of getting beaten back to 6th). Would say the same as regards Silvi Conti and last years GC. Djackadam is still a baby and his Thyestes win is way over-rated. Bobs Worth is over the hill and the over-night rain prob just tip the scales against Holywell and my previous pick Lord Windermere. So that leaves Many Couds and Coneygree. In a marginal call on a very marginal bet I'm going to side with Coneygree and hope that connections are rewarded for their bravery in trying to take this down rather than going the novice route of the RSA - at 8 this is probably his best chance in a weak renewal.
0.5pts ew Coneygree 10/1
Hunter Chase
Think the combination of overnight rain and having Nina Carberry ride makes it very hard to get away from a bet on On the Fringe here especially given the 4 places. Even if Salsify is back to 100% a bit of juice in the ground could see him struggle to get to grips with On The Fringe and I would be very skeptical of Paint the Clouds UK form although SWC's safe jumping should see him run on into a place.
On The Fringe 1.5 pts e/w
Martin Pipe:
I really did not expect my bet of the day (one of the bets of the meeting) to come in the Martin Pipe but you look down through all the horses laid out for this race and scan down the page then just as you get to the bottom you see a proper G2 horse running off bottom weight...seems flat out wrong to me. Killultagh Vic beat Windors Park the last time out when running behind (hopefully the AB winner) Martello Tower. He's the best horse in the race and gets weight from most of his competitors.
2.5pts ew Killultagh Vic 10/1
Grand Annual:
Would usually already be at the bar by the time this kicks off happy to wait another year for my gambling fix but given the ridiculous price of Ned Buntline seem unlikely I'll be able to resist a bet against him here. At the minute Blood Cotil looks to be my pick against him but that could change when I look into it more tomorrow
Wednesday, 11 March 2015
The Vau Factor
Pretty flat day today so if that's the worst the week has in store for us I'll take that. Just a quick round up tonight but not at my real job on Friday so probably will have a longer post first thing Friday morning for the last days action.
JLT Chase:
In a word Vautour. Phenomenal hurdler last year who only ended up chasing because Faugheen just edged him in terms of hurdles forms in Willie's eyes. Then only ended up over 2m4f because Un de Sceaux was a machine over 2m. I actually think he could have beaten both those horses but having ended up chasing over 2m4f there is still nothing comes close to him. Bar a fall he wins - its that simple. I think the English form is flattering Ptit Zig a little and despite being beaten by Don Poli over 3m I think Apache Stronghold will be better over that trip in time - that said he is likely to give the favourite the most to think about. Irish Saint isn't top class but might run on into a place at a bigger price. Vautour is a best of 2/1 now but I think someone probably tries to take him on in the morning and you get 9/4.
3pts Vautour best morning price
0.25pts ew Irish Saint 16/1 PP (get your win stake back as a free bet if he runs into 2nd or 3rd)
Pertemps:
Hard to get away from Brother Brians form looks very progressive and not at all harshly treated under 11-4
1pt ew Brother Brian 10/1
Ryanair:
For me a race that revolves around 3 horses. The best horse in the race is Balder Success but he won't be winning - not tomorrow. He's been to Cheltenham 3 times and his form there reads FUF. Now I would actually forgive him his last one where he fell at the second last with a low sun in his eyes. The other 2 falls however both came at the 4th last which is the first downhill jump. If you can't jump downhill at speed you are not going to win a big race at Cheltenham it really is that simple. Now so far this season Balder Success has been beaten 7ls by Dodging Bullets, 4ls by Somersby and 2ls by Special Tiara. Here is todays Champion Chase result:
1.5pts ew Ma Filleule
0.5pts ew Taquin du Seuil
World Hurdle:
Really comes down to 2 horses for me here. Saphir du Rheu gave 6lbs and a beating (just) to Whisper in last seasons Welsh Champion Hurdle and then stayed on for a course and distance win in January after chasing plans were shelved for another year. See him as the most likely winner but it is possible that last years Coral Cup winner Whisper has improved enough to just deny him. Pretty confident both will place (especially if you can get the 4 places with WH) and happy to keep both on side.
1.5pts e/w Saphir du Rheu
0.75pts e/w Whisper
In the last Just a Par may be being set a more reasonable task than last years RSA but won't be heavily involved
0.25pts ew Just A Par
JLT Chase:
In a word Vautour. Phenomenal hurdler last year who only ended up chasing because Faugheen just edged him in terms of hurdles forms in Willie's eyes. Then only ended up over 2m4f because Un de Sceaux was a machine over 2m. I actually think he could have beaten both those horses but having ended up chasing over 2m4f there is still nothing comes close to him. Bar a fall he wins - its that simple. I think the English form is flattering Ptit Zig a little and despite being beaten by Don Poli over 3m I think Apache Stronghold will be better over that trip in time - that said he is likely to give the favourite the most to think about. Irish Saint isn't top class but might run on into a place at a bigger price. Vautour is a best of 2/1 now but I think someone probably tries to take him on in the morning and you get 9/4.
3pts Vautour best morning price
0.25pts ew Irish Saint 16/1 PP (get your win stake back as a free bet if he runs into 2nd or 3rd)
Pertemps:
Hard to get away from Brother Brians form looks very progressive and not at all harshly treated under 11-4
1pt ew Brother Brian 10/1
Ryanair:
For me a race that revolves around 3 horses. The best horse in the race is Balder Success but he won't be winning - not tomorrow. He's been to Cheltenham 3 times and his form there reads FUF. Now I would actually forgive him his last one where he fell at the second last with a low sun in his eyes. The other 2 falls however both came at the 4th last which is the first downhill jump. If you can't jump downhill at speed you are not going to win a big race at Cheltenham it really is that simple. Now so far this season Balder Success has been beaten 7ls by Dodging Bullets, 4ls by Somersby and 2ls by Special Tiara. Here is todays Champion Chase result:
15:20
Full result| 1st | 3 Dodging Bullets | 9/2 |
| 2nd | 9 Somersby (IRE) | 33/1 |
| 3rd | 10 Special Tiara | 18/1 |
- Distances 1 ¼, 1 ¾
1.5pts ew Ma Filleule
0.5pts ew Taquin du Seuil
World Hurdle:
Really comes down to 2 horses for me here. Saphir du Rheu gave 6lbs and a beating (just) to Whisper in last seasons Welsh Champion Hurdle and then stayed on for a course and distance win in January after chasing plans were shelved for another year. See him as the most likely winner but it is possible that last years Coral Cup winner Whisper has improved enough to just deny him. Pretty confident both will place (especially if you can get the 4 places with WH) and happy to keep both on side.
1.5pts e/w Saphir du Rheu
0.75pts e/w Whisper
In the last Just a Par may be being set a more reasonable task than last years RSA but won't be heavily involved
0.25pts ew Just A Par
Tuesday, 10 March 2015
I got a fever and the only cure is...
Solid start to the week with Mullins delivering our 14/1 (just). On to tomorrow might not have time to cover the whole card so we'll start with the big one.
Champion Chase:
Only one bet can be considered here. Who knows how much ability Sprinter Sacre retains. As a french bred you would assume we'll never see him back close to what we remember of him from 2 years ago and couldn't be taking a chance on him at current prices. Sire de Grugy has only 16 days rest since he was given an unnecessarily hard race on bad ground under top weight and connections admitted he finished tired. The last time out was the first time Dodging Bullets had won a race past the turn of the year in his career and looks to be a winter horse for me. That only really leaves Champagne Fever who really should have made it 3/3 at the festival last year and is the only one of the principles we can trust to run to form. Very hard to see 3 horses beating him and any of the other 3 need everything to go right for them to beat CF. One of the each way bets of the week imo.
3.5pts e/w Champagne Fever
Neptune:
Have been picking up bits and pieces on Outlanders at 6/1 for the past few weeks so probably won't have any more down on this race but I still rate Outlander the best bet. Nichols Canyon probably should and would have gone for the Supreme if Douvan wasn't there. Not convinced 2m 5f is his trip and may be found wanting up the hill. Windsor Park is probably going to improve a bit for the ground but has enough to find with the selection to only be 1 pt bigger and the biggest danger may be Parlour Games who has course and distance form however I can't help feel that possibly Blaklion is a bit over-rated and the Vyta de Roc may have found the trip a little sharp last time at Newbury so possible the form isn't as good as first looks.
1 pt e/w Outlander 4/1
RSA:
In a horrible situation on this one between the horse I think will win and the horse I think is value. I think Don Poli will win but at 7/4 I'm in no rush to get overly involved. He has course form and won one of the best novice chases in Ireland at Leopardstown over the Christmas and comfortably holds most of the field on previous form. I'm probably being overly harsh on King's Palace but given I still have nightmares about how easily he folded 2 out last year I couldn't consider backing him at 4/1. Which really only leaves the value bet of the race Southfield Theatre. The fact that he gave Jetson 8lbs and a 2 length beating in the Pertemps last year when just succumbing to a resurgent Fingal Bay is possibly a bit over looked. Was disappointing the last day against Melodic Rendevous but I expect the extra half mile here to see him in a better light (I hope).
1pt e/w Southfield Theatre 15/2
Coral Cup:
Biggest regret of the festival so far is missing the opening chalk of 33/1 on Dell Arca this evening. At current prices nothing jumping out but will tweet any change of heart tomorrow.
Cross Country:
Sire Collonges looks the stand out bet here given his course form, age and weight profile.
1.5pts ew @15/2
Bumper:
Don't normally get involved here but might have a nibble on Stone Hard. Its interesting that pretty much everyone asked about Willie's bumper horses will talk about Bordini and Bellshill but then can't stop themselves talking about SH's temprement. In the mayhem of a champion bumper that counts for a lot (and its not like he form is too shabby either). Will only be pennies but nice to for once have a root in the gamblefest of the week
Champion Chase:
Only one bet can be considered here. Who knows how much ability Sprinter Sacre retains. As a french bred you would assume we'll never see him back close to what we remember of him from 2 years ago and couldn't be taking a chance on him at current prices. Sire de Grugy has only 16 days rest since he was given an unnecessarily hard race on bad ground under top weight and connections admitted he finished tired. The last time out was the first time Dodging Bullets had won a race past the turn of the year in his career and looks to be a winter horse for me. That only really leaves Champagne Fever who really should have made it 3/3 at the festival last year and is the only one of the principles we can trust to run to form. Very hard to see 3 horses beating him and any of the other 3 need everything to go right for them to beat CF. One of the each way bets of the week imo.
3.5pts e/w Champagne Fever
Neptune:
Have been picking up bits and pieces on Outlanders at 6/1 for the past few weeks so probably won't have any more down on this race but I still rate Outlander the best bet. Nichols Canyon probably should and would have gone for the Supreme if Douvan wasn't there. Not convinced 2m 5f is his trip and may be found wanting up the hill. Windsor Park is probably going to improve a bit for the ground but has enough to find with the selection to only be 1 pt bigger and the biggest danger may be Parlour Games who has course and distance form however I can't help feel that possibly Blaklion is a bit over-rated and the Vyta de Roc may have found the trip a little sharp last time at Newbury so possible the form isn't as good as first looks.
1 pt e/w Outlander 4/1
RSA:
In a horrible situation on this one between the horse I think will win and the horse I think is value. I think Don Poli will win but at 7/4 I'm in no rush to get overly involved. He has course form and won one of the best novice chases in Ireland at Leopardstown over the Christmas and comfortably holds most of the field on previous form. I'm probably being overly harsh on King's Palace but given I still have nightmares about how easily he folded 2 out last year I couldn't consider backing him at 4/1. Which really only leaves the value bet of the race Southfield Theatre. The fact that he gave Jetson 8lbs and a 2 length beating in the Pertemps last year when just succumbing to a resurgent Fingal Bay is possibly a bit over looked. Was disappointing the last day against Melodic Rendevous but I expect the extra half mile here to see him in a better light (I hope).
1pt e/w Southfield Theatre 15/2
Coral Cup:
Biggest regret of the festival so far is missing the opening chalk of 33/1 on Dell Arca this evening. At current prices nothing jumping out but will tweet any change of heart tomorrow.
Cross Country:
Sire Collonges looks the stand out bet here given his course form, age and weight profile.
1.5pts ew @15/2
Bumper:
Don't normally get involved here but might have a nibble on Stone Hard. Its interesting that pretty much everyone asked about Willie's bumper horses will talk about Bordini and Bellshill but then can't stop themselves talking about SH's temprement. In the mayhem of a champion bumper that counts for a lot (and its not like he form is too shabby either). Will only be pennies but nice to for once have a root in the gamblefest of the week
Monday, 9 March 2015
Sometimes you win, sometimes the fish win - this time lets hope its both
Finally after a dark 362 days we are finally on the verge of another Cheltenham. Day 1 is a day that for a long time I thought I wouldn't really be involved in betting-wise struggling to find something to go to war against Mullins hotpots with before eventually coming to my senses and largely surrendering to the inevitability that once again it will be a 'Ruby Tuesday' (wish there were markets on how many times that headline will be used in the next 2 days!) The fish have to win sometimes to keep them interested in the game and tomorrow is a day for the fish but that doesn't mean we can't mop it up too.
There are a couple of spots where e/w betting means it makes sense to make a small stand against him but in at least 3 of the 4 big races he is so far clear of the opposition his biggest danger is the fences
Supreme Novices:
Normally I would scoff at 2/1 on Douvan, a horse that has never raced in a big field, never been put under pressure and largely has had it pretty much all his own way on soft ground so far....however lets look at the competition:
L'ami Serge - solid form but as a second season novice seems like we have probably seen all the improvement their is to see and I'm a little sceptical he will find the improvement necessary to win a Supreme.
Jollyallen - will make a mistake at some point with his jumping and will need a big step up in this department as much as anything to try to threaten.
Everything else bar the pretty average ex-flat racer Qewy has spent most of the winter having Douvan kick dirt in their faces on Willie Mullins gallops so off the limited amount we've seen on them it would be a brave man to say Ruby and Willie have got this one wrong. Paddy Power are giving you a free bet when your horse gets beaten by Douvan so if you really need to have a bet at the current prices a small e/w on Shaneshill to follow in his stablemate could be the call. I'll probably sit this one out (kind of) unless Douvan gets out to 5/2ish though
Arkle:
The biggest danger to Un de Sceuax (possibly the only danger) are the 3rd and 4th last fences when he turns downhill and jumps those 2 fences at the breakneck speed he will be travelling. The foundations for his win was his annihilation of Clarcam and Gilgamboa the last day in Leopardstown - after that pretty much every decent novice chaser decided they should find a different target and the field filled up with a lot of average horses looking to place in an Arkle that bar the favourite has no strength in depth. In doing so he pretty much guaranteed that any doubt about his front-running tactics and dislike of better ground are unlikely to really matter.
Vibrato Valtat is better away from Cheltenham and even then is average at best having just seen off Three Kingdoms at Kempton over Christmas. The only thing Josses Hill has shown us in his chase career so far is that he can't jump and despite a good run here over hurdles last year he's have to be at least twice the price to tempt me to trust him to pull it all togethere when it matters here given what we've seen of him so far. Clarcam was beaten out of sight the last day getting 10lbs and fell when asked to jump the downhill hurdles here last year and given his unusual preparation I would guess connections have been having some trouble with Sgt Reckless this year and that this is more of an after thought. Given the weakness of those behind the market leader some of the bigger prices could easily fill the minor places here. Smashing was outclassed by the 2 best novices in Ireland on his first 2 runs this season before making easy work of an egg and spoon race in Naas the last day. Ran into a place here last year and could sneak the same again here. God's Own lost his way over the winter but there was enough in his runs at the backend of last year and first time out this year to suggest that if they have got his confidence back (bad jumping blunders to blame for last 2 runs) he could easily outrun his 40/1 odds.
Paddy Power are again giving you your win stake back as a free bet when UdS wins so having a small e/w interest on Smashing and Gods Own
0.5pts ew Smashing 25/1
0.5pts ew Gods Own 40/1
Champion Hurdle
Looked at this at the weekend and didn't want to bet it at all with market looking pretty much right. I think Faugheen is going to win but think his price is probably about fair. I would love to see Hurricane Fly win it but unfortunately this is one fairytale I just can't believe in. All season I've been of the opinion that Jezki each way was one of the bets of the festival but the last few days I've started to think I've been making too many excuses for him. Yes he has been trained all season with one day in mind and yes he will be a better horse around Cheltenham but even the last day when 3 from home he had The Fly dead and buried he was still a beaten horse by the time The Fly was looming on his outside as he stumbled at the last. It's one thing making excuses for a horse but you expect that the price lengthen to compensate you for that when in fact the opposite has happened. On the other hand The New One has got nothing but criticism despite coming to Cheltenham unbeaten. Yes he didn't have close to the opposition Jezki had but he always did enough and wasn't exactly wound up for the last race. Ran a decent race in defeat last year and even though I think his jumping is probably just short of whats needed from a champion I do see him running to a similar level to last year which is something I wouldn't be sure about from the rest of those reopposing. I think if Faugheen is found out he will be the one that does it. One outside to mention also is Kitten Rock. A bit young to be winning this but was impressed with his destruction of Tiger Roll the last day at Gowran. If they price up some match bets in the morning vs Bertimont or Vaniteaux they are probably worth a look.
1.5pts e/w The New One 4/1
Mares Hurdle:
Not a lot to say here. Annie Power will win. However couldn't resist the each way thieving on Glens Melody and have backed here at 6/1. 6/4 on the place looks pretty juivy even if we are giving away our win part.
Looking back over the preview above you've probably noticed a common theme - Willie Mullins. I had been considering just lumping on a big accumulator on the 4 favourites sure in the knowledge that each Mullins horse than wins is going to force the next one to go off shorter then I discovered a much better bet. A lot of bookies are pricing up the number of winners Mullins will have on day 1 and bet365 are 14/1 for 4 or more which means you not only have the favourites running for you but all of his second strings which in 2 cases are the 2nd most likely winners imo. Also he has a 16/1 runner in the 4 miler just in case you find yourself 1 short after all the G1's.
The other races are a little less straight forward but have a few sprouting thoughts:
Ultima Chase:
Top 8 look to have too much weight. Ned Stark tried to fall at the first downhill fence on his last visit to Chelt and have my doubts he'll make the finish line this time. Gallant Oscar was laid out for the Thystes and didn't quite pull it off so have to feel like this is more an after thought although still obviously well handicapped. There seems a lot of confidence behind Evan Williams Barrakilla however he's never won over 3 miles and there has to be some doubts about whether he will see this out. Gevrey Chambertins course form of P9P should be enough for even the most reckless punter to be swerving him. So who does that leave - Pendra who has obviously been kept for this since last season but is priced at 7/1 and Smart Freddy who was well beaten over too short a trip by 2 good novices but before that had 2 solid wins over 3 miles to his name. Carrying 10-7 and priced at 33/1 i'm willing to take my chances on the latter.
0.5pts ew Smart Freddy 33/1
In the last the favourite looks about right to me - great run here last year behind Don Poli and although probably a bit flattered to how close he came to Vibrat Valtat and Three Kingdoms he should be able to get involved off this weight. Little more of a watching brief here though
0.25pts ew Thomas Crapper
There are a couple of spots where e/w betting means it makes sense to make a small stand against him but in at least 3 of the 4 big races he is so far clear of the opposition his biggest danger is the fences
Supreme Novices:
Normally I would scoff at 2/1 on Douvan, a horse that has never raced in a big field, never been put under pressure and largely has had it pretty much all his own way on soft ground so far....however lets look at the competition:
L'ami Serge - solid form but as a second season novice seems like we have probably seen all the improvement their is to see and I'm a little sceptical he will find the improvement necessary to win a Supreme.
Jollyallen - will make a mistake at some point with his jumping and will need a big step up in this department as much as anything to try to threaten.
Everything else bar the pretty average ex-flat racer Qewy has spent most of the winter having Douvan kick dirt in their faces on Willie Mullins gallops so off the limited amount we've seen on them it would be a brave man to say Ruby and Willie have got this one wrong. Paddy Power are giving you a free bet when your horse gets beaten by Douvan so if you really need to have a bet at the current prices a small e/w on Shaneshill to follow in his stablemate could be the call. I'll probably sit this one out (kind of) unless Douvan gets out to 5/2ish though
Arkle:
The biggest danger to Un de Sceuax (possibly the only danger) are the 3rd and 4th last fences when he turns downhill and jumps those 2 fences at the breakneck speed he will be travelling. The foundations for his win was his annihilation of Clarcam and Gilgamboa the last day in Leopardstown - after that pretty much every decent novice chaser decided they should find a different target and the field filled up with a lot of average horses looking to place in an Arkle that bar the favourite has no strength in depth. In doing so he pretty much guaranteed that any doubt about his front-running tactics and dislike of better ground are unlikely to really matter.
Vibrato Valtat is better away from Cheltenham and even then is average at best having just seen off Three Kingdoms at Kempton over Christmas. The only thing Josses Hill has shown us in his chase career so far is that he can't jump and despite a good run here over hurdles last year he's have to be at least twice the price to tempt me to trust him to pull it all togethere when it matters here given what we've seen of him so far. Clarcam was beaten out of sight the last day getting 10lbs and fell when asked to jump the downhill hurdles here last year and given his unusual preparation I would guess connections have been having some trouble with Sgt Reckless this year and that this is more of an after thought. Given the weakness of those behind the market leader some of the bigger prices could easily fill the minor places here. Smashing was outclassed by the 2 best novices in Ireland on his first 2 runs this season before making easy work of an egg and spoon race in Naas the last day. Ran into a place here last year and could sneak the same again here. God's Own lost his way over the winter but there was enough in his runs at the backend of last year and first time out this year to suggest that if they have got his confidence back (bad jumping blunders to blame for last 2 runs) he could easily outrun his 40/1 odds.
Paddy Power are again giving you your win stake back as a free bet when UdS wins so having a small e/w interest on Smashing and Gods Own
0.5pts ew Smashing 25/1
0.5pts ew Gods Own 40/1
Champion Hurdle
Looked at this at the weekend and didn't want to bet it at all with market looking pretty much right. I think Faugheen is going to win but think his price is probably about fair. I would love to see Hurricane Fly win it but unfortunately this is one fairytale I just can't believe in. All season I've been of the opinion that Jezki each way was one of the bets of the festival but the last few days I've started to think I've been making too many excuses for him. Yes he has been trained all season with one day in mind and yes he will be a better horse around Cheltenham but even the last day when 3 from home he had The Fly dead and buried he was still a beaten horse by the time The Fly was looming on his outside as he stumbled at the last. It's one thing making excuses for a horse but you expect that the price lengthen to compensate you for that when in fact the opposite has happened. On the other hand The New One has got nothing but criticism despite coming to Cheltenham unbeaten. Yes he didn't have close to the opposition Jezki had but he always did enough and wasn't exactly wound up for the last race. Ran a decent race in defeat last year and even though I think his jumping is probably just short of whats needed from a champion I do see him running to a similar level to last year which is something I wouldn't be sure about from the rest of those reopposing. I think if Faugheen is found out he will be the one that does it. One outside to mention also is Kitten Rock. A bit young to be winning this but was impressed with his destruction of Tiger Roll the last day at Gowran. If they price up some match bets in the morning vs Bertimont or Vaniteaux they are probably worth a look.
1.5pts e/w The New One 4/1
Mares Hurdle:
Not a lot to say here. Annie Power will win. However couldn't resist the each way thieving on Glens Melody and have backed here at 6/1. 6/4 on the place looks pretty juivy even if we are giving away our win part.
Looking back over the preview above you've probably noticed a common theme - Willie Mullins. I had been considering just lumping on a big accumulator on the 4 favourites sure in the knowledge that each Mullins horse than wins is going to force the next one to go off shorter then I discovered a much better bet. A lot of bookies are pricing up the number of winners Mullins will have on day 1 and bet365 are 14/1 for 4 or more which means you not only have the favourites running for you but all of his second strings which in 2 cases are the 2nd most likely winners imo. Also he has a 16/1 runner in the 4 miler just in case you find yourself 1 short after all the G1's.
The other races are a little less straight forward but have a few sprouting thoughts:
Ultima Chase:
Top 8 look to have too much weight. Ned Stark tried to fall at the first downhill fence on his last visit to Chelt and have my doubts he'll make the finish line this time. Gallant Oscar was laid out for the Thystes and didn't quite pull it off so have to feel like this is more an after thought although still obviously well handicapped. There seems a lot of confidence behind Evan Williams Barrakilla however he's never won over 3 miles and there has to be some doubts about whether he will see this out. Gevrey Chambertins course form of P9P should be enough for even the most reckless punter to be swerving him. So who does that leave - Pendra who has obviously been kept for this since last season but is priced at 7/1 and Smart Freddy who was well beaten over too short a trip by 2 good novices but before that had 2 solid wins over 3 miles to his name. Carrying 10-7 and priced at 33/1 i'm willing to take my chances on the latter.
0.5pts ew Smart Freddy 33/1
In the last the favourite looks about right to me - great run here last year behind Don Poli and although probably a bit flattered to how close he came to Vibrat Valtat and Three Kingdoms he should be able to get involved off this weight. Little more of a watching brief here though
0.25pts ew Thomas Crapper
Thursday, 13 March 2014
King size bet to finish off the week
OK another small profit eeked out with a few disappointments along the way. Unfortunately due to othe committments it is going to be a fairly short blog tonight but the plan is to try and find time between Ukrainian riots to tweet any thoughts on the other races if I have time to pick through them. The dormant @Gambrose888 will have anything not covered here.
Albert Barlett:
Might as well start with my bet of the week. See this as a 2 horse race and have been holding off on having a bet until the mountain of cash looking to get long Briar's Hill has had an impact on the price. This guy could go off evens favourite creating massive value on Kings Palace. 2 runs at Cheltenham (including one over this distance) and 2 wins by a combined 32 lengths. Briar's Hill has good form too but winning the bumper here is no guarantee of future festival success. I really see it as a race between the 2 of them but with Kings Palace 3 times the price of Briars Hill he has to be backed. Also given his price and how far clear these 2 should be of the rest I'll be going ew here too. He's 7/2 currently but I'd be pretty confident that 4s will be offered at some point on him tomorrow.
5pts e/w Kings Palace 7/2 or better
Gold Cup:
I sided with Bob's Worth against Silviniaco Conti last year and despite a less fluent preparation this year I think he will maintain his phenomenal Cheltenham record. Have never quite talked myself around to being an SC fan and he prob looks slightly flattered by his King George win when Cue Card stopped dead. At the current prices I can readily oppose him. Likewise with Last Instalment, after 2 years off the track this will be his 3rd race in 60 days and without an in depth knowledge of the drugs that were found in Fentons yard I would imagine he is likely not to show his best here today. His stablemate on the other hand probably is not quite good enough to win this and should run well enough to claim a place. First Lieutenant has a festival record of 122 with only Bobs Worth and Cue Card beating him - expect to see him close to his best and making the frame even if not quite doing enough to bring home the cup. Another horse who is probably overpriced is The Giant Bolster who has been 2nd and 4th in the last 2 Gold Cups. He won the Argento here back in Jan and another big run is expected here. Hopefully he can do enough to edge into a place.
1pt Bob Worth 2/1 or better
1.5pts First Lieutenant to place BSP
0.5pts The Giant Bolster to place BSP
Albert Barlett:
Might as well start with my bet of the week. See this as a 2 horse race and have been holding off on having a bet until the mountain of cash looking to get long Briar's Hill has had an impact on the price. This guy could go off evens favourite creating massive value on Kings Palace. 2 runs at Cheltenham (including one over this distance) and 2 wins by a combined 32 lengths. Briar's Hill has good form too but winning the bumper here is no guarantee of future festival success. I really see it as a race between the 2 of them but with Kings Palace 3 times the price of Briars Hill he has to be backed. Also given his price and how far clear these 2 should be of the rest I'll be going ew here too. He's 7/2 currently but I'd be pretty confident that 4s will be offered at some point on him tomorrow.
5pts e/w Kings Palace 7/2 or better
Gold Cup:
I sided with Bob's Worth against Silviniaco Conti last year and despite a less fluent preparation this year I think he will maintain his phenomenal Cheltenham record. Have never quite talked myself around to being an SC fan and he prob looks slightly flattered by his King George win when Cue Card stopped dead. At the current prices I can readily oppose him. Likewise with Last Instalment, after 2 years off the track this will be his 3rd race in 60 days and without an in depth knowledge of the drugs that were found in Fentons yard I would imagine he is likely not to show his best here today. His stablemate on the other hand probably is not quite good enough to win this and should run well enough to claim a place. First Lieutenant has a festival record of 122 with only Bobs Worth and Cue Card beating him - expect to see him close to his best and making the frame even if not quite doing enough to bring home the cup. Another horse who is probably overpriced is The Giant Bolster who has been 2nd and 4th in the last 2 Gold Cups. He won the Argento here back in Jan and another big run is expected here. Hopefully he can do enough to edge into a place.
1pt Bob Worth 2/1 or better
1.5pts First Lieutenant to place BSP
0.5pts The Giant Bolster to place BSP
Wednesday, 12 March 2014
Give Powers Whisky a shot
Nice solid day today with 2 winners and profit on
every race, but lets not get carried away yet – its half time and theres
a lot more racing to come including my bt of the week… but that’s not
until Friday.
Hopefully we can dig out a few winners in tomorrows card first which on the whole looks a tougher ask than today.
JLT Novices:
I have an ante-post slip on Wonderful Charm for
this but apparently he had a setback a few weeks back and not had the
ideal preparation for this. Not a race I think the Irish can win
with Felix Yonger looking overhyped although
he should improve for the better ground after getting turned over in
the mud the last 2 times. I don’t see that much between him and the
possibly under-rated Djackadam but would be surprised if either are good
enough to win this. Mozoltov could spring a shock but I doubt it.
Of the English Oscar Whisky has pretty much beaten
everyone else although was getting 8lbs from Wonderful Charm when he won
by 1/2l over course and distance. I think 2m5f on good ground is his
perfect conditions and people who talk of him
not being a festival horse should remember he was 3rd to
Hurricane Fly in a Champion Hurdle here 3 years ago before being sent
over distances to long for him. At the age of 9 he’s not getting any
younger but I still think this is his chance for
the festival win he deserves although if Wonderful Charm is 100% he’ll
have a proper battle on his hand. Taquin du Soleil might make a clean
sweep of the places for the English here and isn’t far off Oscar Whisky
on previous form.
1pt e/w Oscar Whisky 6/1
Pertemps:
As close to no opinion as possible. But If In Doubt
was ½l off Fingal Bay the last time when only out for a jog. Large
chance of a bounce from Fingal Bay on his second run back from a long
layoff (although even top weight might not stop
him if he is as good as he used to be) Tentatively put a few shillings
on If In Doubt.
.25pts e/w If In Doubt 8/1
Ryanair:
One of the easiest races of the meeting to analyse.
Beneficient jumped like a stag last year when beating Dynaste by 3
1/2ls to win the Jewson – no reason to expect any change in the result
this year. A lot of other horses are here after
Plan A didn’t work out which is not the ideal preparation and can be
readily discounted.
2pts e/w Beneficient 4/1
World Hurdle:
Where to start? The 4 times champ or the 2014
champion. Lets start with Big Bucks, a machine of a horse with 4 titles
but 11yo and coming back from an injury he was flattered by how bad the
competition was the last day in the Cleeve when
Knockara Beau (who doesn’t even line up here) put the nail in afew of
these runners title ambitions. At Fishers Cross seems to have forgotton
how to jump this year and I suppose you could make the case he was
comfortable the best horse in the Cleeve jumping
aside but with 12 hurdles from start to finish for him to attempt to
demolish it’s hard to justify getting involved here.
I think for the second time this week in
Championship races McCoy has got it wrong. More of that actually looks
like a proper 3m hurdler who has posted a couple of big runs this year
and has the most room for improvement of any of these.
I’m a big fan of this horse but unfortunately for him due to the
quality of the Champion Hurdle he now has to race against the best mare
since Dawn Run (and I include my nemesis Quevega in that). 10/10 she’s
never even been off the bridle to beat some top
class opponents. I really can not see her getting beaten. The trip is
an unknown but she looks like she should stay.
Fortunately Paddy Power are giving us a way to cash
in either way – Moneyback if second to Annie Power (max 50). So I will
take her to win and have an ew cover on More of That
2.5pts win Annie Power 6/4 now but hopefully some bookie will try to take her on in the morning and we get 7/4
1 pt ew More of That 10/1
Byrne Plate:
No strong opinions here. Third Intention looks like the right profile around the 14/1 but a nominal interest if any for me.
Kim Muir:
I was impressed with the way Indian Castle beat
Annacotty on trials day and is a worthy favourite. Find someone offering
5 places and have a nibble.
0.5pts Indian Castle 7/1
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