Wednesday, 16 March 2016
When you find youself walking thru hell...keep on walking
"We shall heal our wounds, collect our dead and continue fighting" - Mao Tse Tung
I got home from work today to discover my only real winner of the week so far - that while I was at work the gents up in The Corkscrew had managed to deliver 3 cases of their finest wines to my house in my absence. There was a moment (and when I say moment I mean an hour) where I was tempted to turn off my phone, pull the curtains and lock the door and then spend from now til next Monday drinking myself through it but as Ali used to say - Don't quit, suffer now and live your life as a champion. So we fight on to try to salvage something from the wreckage of Cheltenham 2016
JLT:
If you asked 4 hours ago who I thought I would be backing here it would have been a very different answer but digging deeper into the form means Outlander and Bristol de Mai are actually 2 of the first I discounted. Maybe a bit harsh on Outlander to blame him for the tour of the British countryside that Bryan Cooper brought him on while he was trying to win the Neptune last year but put in his place by Shaneshill the next day and despite never being in danger of being beaten over fences over the winter never beat anything of note. Bristol de Mai is probably held by Garde La Victoire who has taken a slightly circuitous route here since beating him in October but has won a hurdle over 2 1/2m around Cheltenham so the step back up in trip probably holds no fears. That said although a worthy favourite is only slight value @4/1 in a pretty open race. Black Hercules has never been a horse I've liked and once again priced off the hype rather than the ability. The 3 Musketeers will have his fans tomorrow but I think there's too much to forgive from his last run to just plough in off the run before. Kings Odessey is a dark horse who I think will outrun his odds but the horse I really want on side is L'Ami Serge. Since he has come to England the horse that have filled the runner up spot to him include - Kilcooley (2nd best hurdles time speed this season) Killultagh Vic (nuff said) and Doctor Harper (we'll come to him later). He only managed 4th at the festival last year but the 3 horses that finished ahead of him have 2 wins and a second already this year. I'll forgive him for getting caught cold against Violet Dancer last time out who looked a real dark horse. He's been overlooked here so smash in.
L'Ami Serge 2pts e/w 9/1
Pertemps:
There is no quantity of wine that could make a man make sense of this race. If I was forced to have a bet I would go with Missed Approach who doesn't seem to like racing often but when he gets to the track he does show a decent level of form. Assuming he doesn't manage to fall out of the horsebox on the way to the track 11/1 seems alright that he'll come out on top
Ryanair:
Vautour should be winning the Gold Cup on Friday. Given he's not, he'll be winning this instead so pretty much trying to find who will be second here so I could try and make a case for 2 horse that should be tailed off in the Gold Cup behind him or an old aged pensioner but instead I'll take my chances with a young gun. Josses Hill beat Gods Own 8Ls the last day (roughly the amount he was beaten in the Champion Chase today) and can easily improve on last years showing. Will be very hard to keep him out of a place.
1.5pts Josses Hill 25/1
World Hurdle:
I should probably flag up in advance that in his career every race that Thistlecrack has run in I have lost cash...the more timid investors may now be running for cover and if you feel like skipping the next paragraph I can't really blame you. If you have kept reading you probably expect me to be talking up Martello which is kinda what I thought I would be doing about lunchtime but but Arbre de Vie and NMH have let down his form from last year today and even though I didn't worry too much about the run over Christmas as his last run back his last run was worrying. Alpha Des Obeuax look the only real danger to the favourite and having raced with the best of them over 2 1/2 he is now looking to take down the very soft 3m division. Think Thistlecrack sluices up but the only horse I see beating him is this guy
1pt e/w Alpha des Obeaux
After this we are running on fumes.. Smart Talk is one of the ew bets of the festivals arounds 7s, Stilletto is a good punt @10/1 and in the last the Doc Harper has ridiculous form being unlucky to come up against some of the best in the business and is rightly fav in the last
Tuesday, 15 March 2016
We go again
Wow that was not the start we were hoping for or expected. 1 winner, 4 fallers and 1 death - if we keep up like this we will be outside Spar with a coffee cup long before the Gold Cup comes around, but we will keep plugging on and hopefully if tomorrows nags can resist the temptation to jump head first into the turf we can replenish the coffers and get ourselves a few bullets to finish off the week in style. At least we have an easy start to things tomorrow
Neptune:
Yanworth is unopposable here imo. He had the best single piece of novice form from his demolition job on trials day and he beat Charbel a lot easier in Ascot in December than Min did earlier so everything points to the fact that despite Yorkhill being a top novice Yanworth should have his measure. Hard to make a strong case for any of the rest.
3pts Yanworth 6/4
RSA:
This is a very tricky one and I am tempted to sit it out as I have doubts about pretty much the whole field. If Shaneshill had shown any ability to jump a fence I would have put him up at a big price but the mistakes he made at Naas under no pressure were punished when stepped up in class at Doncaster. Seeyouatmidnight emptied very quickly when in contention in a poor World Hurdle last year and don't think he really stays a true run 3m. Blaklion is all heart but would be a little worried that even 6 weeks later the battle in the mud the last day may have left a mark. More of That well he has looked impressive and is a former World Hurdle winner but he hasn't raced anything of note so hard to say how much of his old ability really remains (I think he'll win but @ 7/4 happy to pass). So that leaves 2 No More Heroes the horse that a lot of people smarter than me keep telling me is a future Gold Cup horse and I keep looking at them with a confused look on my face going - Really?!? What I do know is he has run 14 races 7 before the turn of the year and 7 after. His record before the turn of the year is 6/7 with just the one defeat on his hurdling debut. Of the 7 runs in the Spring he is 2/7 having taken down a decent bumper and a PTP but losing all 3 graded races. Now thismay be a bit of an abuse of statistics in that all 3 of those races came last spring and he ran a decent race in defeat in the Albert Bartlett but he has definitely never put in a spring performance that would have thinking Gold Cup so at the 5/2 mark I can readily pass especially when a horse who you could argue ran better last spring than he did is 4 times the price. Vyta de Roc beat Outlander a length here last year in the Neptune and was a stumble away from beating Nichols Canyon also. Looked to be coming into form and beat Minella Rocca by 1/2L the last day with him showing himself no slouch earlier today. At 10/1 definitely worth a small nibble.
1pt e/w Vyta du Roc
Coral Cup:
Politologue for last years winnng connections is tough to assess - seemed like he spooked at Cheltenhem in Dec and even though Nicholls is convinced he is well handicapped and has plenty of improvement to come I'm not convinced the occasional of the festival will see him at his best.
Ruby rides Blood Cotil who he was confident of winning on last year but ended up flopping before showing his true form later in the year at Punchestown. I would worry about history repeating itself here and the horse I like is Abre de Vie who ran an eyecatching race 3Ls behind No More Heros last year. In safe hands with David Mullins and likely a better price for the jockey change.
1pt ew Abre de Vie 12/1
Champion Chase:
A lot of horses here priced up on the former glories and will gladly dismiss the chances of the 3 previous winners in the race who all have their best days behind them. Un de Sceaux looked a champion in waiting the last day and my suspicion is the only horse that can beat him is himself. If he jumps well he will win but if Special Tiara takes him on up front it could put pressure on his jumping (2 falls in 7 chase starts) and if that happens the horse I think will be staying on past the others up the hill will be Gods Own. He got within 6Ls of UdS in last years Arkle and realistically speaking I think any of these horses will be delighted to get that close to him this year. If UdS does romp it we should still make a nice profit from the place money if Gods Own finds last years form.
1.5pts ew Gods Own 28/1
Cross Country:
Its not hard to see why Josies Order is a warm favorite in this given his record at the track and having Nina on board. Age and injury may have taken its toll on Balthazar King and I would expect the biggest challenge to come from Sire Collonges - was 2Ls back when they were well clear of Ballyboker Bridge back in December. At 4 times the price I'll take a chance that he can find enough improvement to squeeze by this time around
1.5pts ew Sire Collonges 12/1
Fred Winter:
As close to no opinion as possible on this race. Diego du Charmil could be anything but bookies not taking any chances. Jaleo could be one thats an improving spring horse and could go well but likely I'll already be flicking through Thursdays form by the time this one comes on.
Bumper:
Similar story here - if pushed I would go for a win for the girls with Augusta Kate very impressive winning a listed bumper in Navan but will be keeping stakes to a minimum on this.
Neptune:
Yanworth is unopposable here imo. He had the best single piece of novice form from his demolition job on trials day and he beat Charbel a lot easier in Ascot in December than Min did earlier so everything points to the fact that despite Yorkhill being a top novice Yanworth should have his measure. Hard to make a strong case for any of the rest.
3pts Yanworth 6/4
RSA:
This is a very tricky one and I am tempted to sit it out as I have doubts about pretty much the whole field. If Shaneshill had shown any ability to jump a fence I would have put him up at a big price but the mistakes he made at Naas under no pressure were punished when stepped up in class at Doncaster. Seeyouatmidnight emptied very quickly when in contention in a poor World Hurdle last year and don't think he really stays a true run 3m. Blaklion is all heart but would be a little worried that even 6 weeks later the battle in the mud the last day may have left a mark. More of That well he has looked impressive and is a former World Hurdle winner but he hasn't raced anything of note so hard to say how much of his old ability really remains (I think he'll win but @ 7/4 happy to pass). So that leaves 2 No More Heroes the horse that a lot of people smarter than me keep telling me is a future Gold Cup horse and I keep looking at them with a confused look on my face going - Really?!? What I do know is he has run 14 races 7 before the turn of the year and 7 after. His record before the turn of the year is 6/7 with just the one defeat on his hurdling debut. Of the 7 runs in the Spring he is 2/7 having taken down a decent bumper and a PTP but losing all 3 graded races. Now thismay be a bit of an abuse of statistics in that all 3 of those races came last spring and he ran a decent race in defeat in the Albert Bartlett but he has definitely never put in a spring performance that would have thinking Gold Cup so at the 5/2 mark I can readily pass especially when a horse who you could argue ran better last spring than he did is 4 times the price. Vyta de Roc beat Outlander a length here last year in the Neptune and was a stumble away from beating Nichols Canyon also. Looked to be coming into form and beat Minella Rocca by 1/2L the last day with him showing himself no slouch earlier today. At 10/1 definitely worth a small nibble.
1pt e/w Vyta du Roc
Coral Cup:
Politologue for last years winnng connections is tough to assess - seemed like he spooked at Cheltenhem in Dec and even though Nicholls is convinced he is well handicapped and has plenty of improvement to come I'm not convinced the occasional of the festival will see him at his best.
Ruby rides Blood Cotil who he was confident of winning on last year but ended up flopping before showing his true form later in the year at Punchestown. I would worry about history repeating itself here and the horse I like is Abre de Vie who ran an eyecatching race 3Ls behind No More Heros last year. In safe hands with David Mullins and likely a better price for the jockey change.
1pt ew Abre de Vie 12/1
Champion Chase:
A lot of horses here priced up on the former glories and will gladly dismiss the chances of the 3 previous winners in the race who all have their best days behind them. Un de Sceaux looked a champion in waiting the last day and my suspicion is the only horse that can beat him is himself. If he jumps well he will win but if Special Tiara takes him on up front it could put pressure on his jumping (2 falls in 7 chase starts) and if that happens the horse I think will be staying on past the others up the hill will be Gods Own. He got within 6Ls of UdS in last years Arkle and realistically speaking I think any of these horses will be delighted to get that close to him this year. If UdS does romp it we should still make a nice profit from the place money if Gods Own finds last years form.
1.5pts ew Gods Own 28/1
Cross Country:
Its not hard to see why Josies Order is a warm favorite in this given his record at the track and having Nina on board. Age and injury may have taken its toll on Balthazar King and I would expect the biggest challenge to come from Sire Collonges - was 2Ls back when they were well clear of Ballyboker Bridge back in December. At 4 times the price I'll take a chance that he can find enough improvement to squeeze by this time around
1.5pts ew Sire Collonges 12/1
Fred Winter:
As close to no opinion as possible on this race. Diego du Charmil could be anything but bookies not taking any chances. Jaleo could be one thats an improving spring horse and could go well but likely I'll already be flicking through Thursdays form by the time this one comes on.
Bumper:
Similar story here - if pushed I would go for a win for the girls with Augusta Kate very impressive winning a listed bumper in Navan but will be keeping stakes to a minimum on this.
Monday, 14 March 2016
Supa start to the week
It's been a long tortuous winter but finally spring is here and that can mean only one thing - its time for the Irish to pack their bags and head to the Cotwolds for another lorryload of cash and prizes. Fortunately you don't have to make the long trip over though to get the cash with plenty of bookies more than willing to top up your wheelbarrows closer to home. No fantastic specials like last year with most 'specials' nothing but gimmicks to get you in the door playing the virtual dogs but hopefully with a little but of careful planning we can still seperate them from their cash. No all in lumps on Day 1 but a few little bits and pieces of value and hopefully a bit more will emerge tomorrow morning when the bookies actually start to take opinions (so keep an eye on twitter over the day)
Supreme:
Looks like the Irish will dominate this again. Min is favourite having cruised to 2 wins over the winter without coming off the bridle. The main arguement Ive heard as to why he is a weak favourite is that he is not as good as Douvan or Vautour - the last 2 winners of this. That may be true but trust me none of the other horses in this are in that league either. He's favourite and deserves to be but 9/4-5/2 seems about right for a horse who despite his undoubted abillity has never really had to fight it out in his races. Probably the strongest arguement in his favour is that Graham Wylie thought it was better to take his horse Yorkhill off to fight Yanworth rather than take on Min at his optimum trip. Yanworth and Yorkhill have won the 2 best competitive novice hurdles of the winter and surely would have avoided each other if Yorkhill wasnt second best in the Mullins yard. Find it hard to like the 2 Henderson horses who are next in the market with Altior showing all the signs of a flat track bully when smashing things up in Kempton over Christmas while Buveur D'air beat some pretty average types in his 2 starts. If you want some value in the race I think you could do a lot worse than take a look at Supasundae who smashed previous Cheltenham bumper winner Silver Concorde by 13Ls in a novice hurdle over Christmas and obviously has a decent turn of foot having beaten Yanworth and Thistlecrack in his bumper days. For me he looks the only value in the race at the minute.
1.5pts e/w Supasundae 14/1
Arkle:
Douvan wins. Its that simple. He's 2/5 though so no one is likely to get rich backing that. I've come around to Vaniteax over the season. Before Christmas when adivsing everyone to back Ar Mad (the best 2m chaser in Britain) at Kempton I dismissed him as a hype horse. He put up a great showing that day to lose by 1/4L and I pretty quickly had to re-assess. He got within 6Ls of Vautour in a Supreme and if he gets as close to Douvan he should easily pick up second ahead of Sizing John. Comments from Henderson today that even he doesn't believe Douvan can be beaten and that Vaniteux will be ridden to get his best finishing position ie. 2nd mean if you haven't already taken bigger prices on Vaniteaux w/o Douvan then 7/4 is a decent price.
1pt Vaniteux (w/o Douvan) 7/4
Ultima Handicap:
Very unusual to see a horse go from being 4th in a gold cup 1 year to contesting this the next but thats whats has happened to Holywell with things not really working out for him since last year. Twice a festival winner though he is a horse that comes alive in the spring that said although I couldn't make a great case to tell people not to back him I think McLernon may have made a mistake in not choosing his stable mate Beg to Differ who followed up what was nothing more than a solid 2nd here on New Years Day with a very impressive win at Doncaster the last day. He went up 10lbs for that but there should still be more improvement to come from this 6 yo. Of the others at the top of the market Kruzlinin has the national as his main aim and will probably be more than happy running into a place here. Out Sam is probably the best handicapped horse in the race but racing in a big field on a track that likely wont suit means I can easily overlook the weight he has in hand
0.75pts e/w Beg to Differ 14/1
Champion Hurdle:
Annie Power hasn't had more than a training gallop in any race in the 2 years since More of That outstayed here in the World Hurdle a very classy mare but very skinny price with so many uncertainties on her first full blooded race in a long time. 2 years ago she would have won this race on the bridle but don't really fancy taking 2/1 to find out if that is still the case. Nichols Canyon is a horse I really like but think the Aintree hurdle is really the race for him - the difference in performance last year between the Neptune and the Mersey hurdle was pretty stark. Still think he will do enough to hold Identity Thief who has pretty close form with Top Notch who now looks the best of the top 3 in last years Triumph who all line up here and so I would also discount them too (although don't be surprised if Top Notch sneaks a place). All that leaves is The New One who without ever looking overly impressive this year has still beaten all in front of him with the exception of Faugheen. He possibly should have won this race 2 years ago and it really is now or never this time around. I think in a pretty open race he finally might have his time.
1.5 pts ew The New One 6/1
0.25pts ew Top Notch 18/1
Mares Hurdle:
Very hard to make a case against Vroum Vroum Mag who has won 8 in a row now on the bridle. Would expect Polly Peachum and a rehabilitated Bitofapuzzle to fight out the minor places like last year.
2.5pts Vroum Vroum Mag 11/10
0.5pts ew Polly Peachum 6/1
0.5pts ew Bitofapuzzle 16/1
National Hunt Chase
Easiest race of the day for me. Noble Endevour just failed to give 5lb to Killultagh Vic by a nostril last year and that horse would be favourite for the JLT if it wasn't for injury. Hasn't done anything wrong since and has been laid out for this all season. Back with confidence.
2.5pts ew Noble Endevour 7/1
Novice Handicap Chase
Trickiest race on the card and a lot to sift through. The one thing that stands out as possibly being overlooked is French recruit Rezorbi. Had a few wins in France before moving to Jonjo's yard and was just starting to move into contention on trials day before coming down 3 out. Worth a nibble.
0.5pts ew Rezorbi
Supreme:
Looks like the Irish will dominate this again. Min is favourite having cruised to 2 wins over the winter without coming off the bridle. The main arguement Ive heard as to why he is a weak favourite is that he is not as good as Douvan or Vautour - the last 2 winners of this. That may be true but trust me none of the other horses in this are in that league either. He's favourite and deserves to be but 9/4-5/2 seems about right for a horse who despite his undoubted abillity has never really had to fight it out in his races. Probably the strongest arguement in his favour is that Graham Wylie thought it was better to take his horse Yorkhill off to fight Yanworth rather than take on Min at his optimum trip. Yanworth and Yorkhill have won the 2 best competitive novice hurdles of the winter and surely would have avoided each other if Yorkhill wasnt second best in the Mullins yard. Find it hard to like the 2 Henderson horses who are next in the market with Altior showing all the signs of a flat track bully when smashing things up in Kempton over Christmas while Buveur D'air beat some pretty average types in his 2 starts. If you want some value in the race I think you could do a lot worse than take a look at Supasundae who smashed previous Cheltenham bumper winner Silver Concorde by 13Ls in a novice hurdle over Christmas and obviously has a decent turn of foot having beaten Yanworth and Thistlecrack in his bumper days. For me he looks the only value in the race at the minute.
1.5pts e/w Supasundae 14/1
Arkle:
Douvan wins. Its that simple. He's 2/5 though so no one is likely to get rich backing that. I've come around to Vaniteax over the season. Before Christmas when adivsing everyone to back Ar Mad (the best 2m chaser in Britain) at Kempton I dismissed him as a hype horse. He put up a great showing that day to lose by 1/4L and I pretty quickly had to re-assess. He got within 6Ls of Vautour in a Supreme and if he gets as close to Douvan he should easily pick up second ahead of Sizing John. Comments from Henderson today that even he doesn't believe Douvan can be beaten and that Vaniteux will be ridden to get his best finishing position ie. 2nd mean if you haven't already taken bigger prices on Vaniteaux w/o Douvan then 7/4 is a decent price.
1pt Vaniteux (w/o Douvan) 7/4
Ultima Handicap:
Very unusual to see a horse go from being 4th in a gold cup 1 year to contesting this the next but thats whats has happened to Holywell with things not really working out for him since last year. Twice a festival winner though he is a horse that comes alive in the spring that said although I couldn't make a great case to tell people not to back him I think McLernon may have made a mistake in not choosing his stable mate Beg to Differ who followed up what was nothing more than a solid 2nd here on New Years Day with a very impressive win at Doncaster the last day. He went up 10lbs for that but there should still be more improvement to come from this 6 yo. Of the others at the top of the market Kruzlinin has the national as his main aim and will probably be more than happy running into a place here. Out Sam is probably the best handicapped horse in the race but racing in a big field on a track that likely wont suit means I can easily overlook the weight he has in hand
0.75pts e/w Beg to Differ 14/1
Champion Hurdle:
Annie Power hasn't had more than a training gallop in any race in the 2 years since More of That outstayed here in the World Hurdle a very classy mare but very skinny price with so many uncertainties on her first full blooded race in a long time. 2 years ago she would have won this race on the bridle but don't really fancy taking 2/1 to find out if that is still the case. Nichols Canyon is a horse I really like but think the Aintree hurdle is really the race for him - the difference in performance last year between the Neptune and the Mersey hurdle was pretty stark. Still think he will do enough to hold Identity Thief who has pretty close form with Top Notch who now looks the best of the top 3 in last years Triumph who all line up here and so I would also discount them too (although don't be surprised if Top Notch sneaks a place). All that leaves is The New One who without ever looking overly impressive this year has still beaten all in front of him with the exception of Faugheen. He possibly should have won this race 2 years ago and it really is now or never this time around. I think in a pretty open race he finally might have his time.
1.5 pts ew The New One 6/1
0.25pts ew Top Notch 18/1
Mares Hurdle:
Very hard to make a case against Vroum Vroum Mag who has won 8 in a row now on the bridle. Would expect Polly Peachum and a rehabilitated Bitofapuzzle to fight out the minor places like last year.
2.5pts Vroum Vroum Mag 11/10
0.5pts ew Polly Peachum 6/1
0.5pts ew Bitofapuzzle 16/1
National Hunt Chase
Easiest race of the day for me. Noble Endevour just failed to give 5lb to Killultagh Vic by a nostril last year and that horse would be favourite for the JLT if it wasn't for injury. Hasn't done anything wrong since and has been laid out for this all season. Back with confidence.
2.5pts ew Noble Endevour 7/1
Novice Handicap Chase
Trickiest race on the card and a lot to sift through. The one thing that stands out as possibly being overlooked is French recruit Rezorbi. Had a few wins in France before moving to Jonjo's yard and was just starting to move into contention on trials day before coming down 3 out. Worth a nibble.
0.5pts ew Rezorbi
Thursday, 12 March 2015
Time to make a Kill-ing
One day left to try and separate the bookies from their cash. Looks a trappy day but some value about if you dig deep enough.
Triumph:
Interesting that Ruby has decided to ride Dicosimo ahead of Kalkir as he looks a soft ground horse to me. Of the Irish the one that appeals is Petite Parisienne who looks to have the right profile for this race and even though she'll need to improve on what she showed the last day she looks progressive and having the won on the flat over 1m2f in France she probably has a better blend of speed and stamina than the other Irish runners. The English challenge is pretty much Nicky Henderson (think Beltor will be found wanting in this company). Of the Henderson crew Hargam might actually be their best suited to this with very solid flat form and some experience over the course earlier in the season. I have a slight perference for Petite Parisienne at these prices although will keep Hargam onside also.
1.5pts ew Petite Parisienne 11/1
.5 pts ew Hargam 7/1
County Hurdle:
Without going into this in too much depth it would seem to be a very brave (and for brave read stupid) man that tries to oppose the Martin plot horse here. Course form and off since a close third in the Caesarewich to protect his mark for this he could make 13/2 look very generous by 2.05 tomorrow.
1pt e/w Quick Jack 13/2
Albert Bartlett:
Couldn't have either of the top 2 in the market here. Black Hercules looks the ultimate hype horse - has never down anything special and the only time he's raced anything a step up from a shetland pony was in last years bumper where he came 4th. (giving him a pass on the Punchestown bumper where he was pretty much pulled up). Not entirely convinced that there was anything particularly wrong with NMH the last travelled fine for most of the race and just didn't look good enough at the end. Looking back at that race the standout horse for this race is surely Martello Tower who was just beaten by Outlander over a trip too short for him (just about got the better of Outlander over Christmas over 3m). He had some good horse behind him that day managing to beat Killutagh Vic (more on him later) and Windsor Park by 1 and 2 lengths respectively. The step up in trip will improve him and every last drop of rain forecast tonight will also help. Blaklion carries the English hopes as talented though he is Caracci Apache looks too crazy to be trusting your money with. Was very impressive in Cheltenham in December although on a strict line of form through Parlour games he would look to have a small bit to find with Martello Tower.
1.5pts ew Martello Tower
1pt place Blaklion
Gold Cup
What a mess of a race. Went through all the runners and by the end I had a cast iron reason for each of them why it was impossible for them to win. For some reason people in Ireland seem to rate Carlingford Lough as our great white hope for this race. If you are one of these people go back and watch the end of last years RSA - turning for home he has his chance. If he was good enough to win a GC he would have been good enough to win a poor enough RSA from there (instead of getting beaten back to 6th). Would say the same as regards Silvi Conti and last years GC. Djackadam is still a baby and his Thyestes win is way over-rated. Bobs Worth is over the hill and the over-night rain prob just tip the scales against Holywell and my previous pick Lord Windermere. So that leaves Many Couds and Coneygree. In a marginal call on a very marginal bet I'm going to side with Coneygree and hope that connections are rewarded for their bravery in trying to take this down rather than going the novice route of the RSA - at 8 this is probably his best chance in a weak renewal.
0.5pts ew Coneygree 10/1
Hunter Chase
Think the combination of overnight rain and having Nina Carberry ride makes it very hard to get away from a bet on On the Fringe here especially given the 4 places. Even if Salsify is back to 100% a bit of juice in the ground could see him struggle to get to grips with On The Fringe and I would be very skeptical of Paint the Clouds UK form although SWC's safe jumping should see him run on into a place.
On The Fringe 1.5 pts e/w
Martin Pipe:
I really did not expect my bet of the day (one of the bets of the meeting) to come in the Martin Pipe but you look down through all the horses laid out for this race and scan down the page then just as you get to the bottom you see a proper G2 horse running off bottom weight...seems flat out wrong to me. Killultagh Vic beat Windors Park the last time out when running behind (hopefully the AB winner) Martello Tower. He's the best horse in the race and gets weight from most of his competitors.
2.5pts ew Killultagh Vic 10/1
Grand Annual:
Would usually already be at the bar by the time this kicks off happy to wait another year for my gambling fix but given the ridiculous price of Ned Buntline seem unlikely I'll be able to resist a bet against him here. At the minute Blood Cotil looks to be my pick against him but that could change when I look into it more tomorrow
Triumph:
Interesting that Ruby has decided to ride Dicosimo ahead of Kalkir as he looks a soft ground horse to me. Of the Irish the one that appeals is Petite Parisienne who looks to have the right profile for this race and even though she'll need to improve on what she showed the last day she looks progressive and having the won on the flat over 1m2f in France she probably has a better blend of speed and stamina than the other Irish runners. The English challenge is pretty much Nicky Henderson (think Beltor will be found wanting in this company). Of the Henderson crew Hargam might actually be their best suited to this with very solid flat form and some experience over the course earlier in the season. I have a slight perference for Petite Parisienne at these prices although will keep Hargam onside also.
1.5pts ew Petite Parisienne 11/1
.5 pts ew Hargam 7/1
County Hurdle:
Without going into this in too much depth it would seem to be a very brave (and for brave read stupid) man that tries to oppose the Martin plot horse here. Course form and off since a close third in the Caesarewich to protect his mark for this he could make 13/2 look very generous by 2.05 tomorrow.
1pt e/w Quick Jack 13/2
Albert Bartlett:
Couldn't have either of the top 2 in the market here. Black Hercules looks the ultimate hype horse - has never down anything special and the only time he's raced anything a step up from a shetland pony was in last years bumper where he came 4th. (giving him a pass on the Punchestown bumper where he was pretty much pulled up). Not entirely convinced that there was anything particularly wrong with NMH the last travelled fine for most of the race and just didn't look good enough at the end. Looking back at that race the standout horse for this race is surely Martello Tower who was just beaten by Outlander over a trip too short for him (just about got the better of Outlander over Christmas over 3m). He had some good horse behind him that day managing to beat Killutagh Vic (more on him later) and Windsor Park by 1 and 2 lengths respectively. The step up in trip will improve him and every last drop of rain forecast tonight will also help. Blaklion carries the English hopes as talented though he is Caracci Apache looks too crazy to be trusting your money with. Was very impressive in Cheltenham in December although on a strict line of form through Parlour games he would look to have a small bit to find with Martello Tower.
1.5pts ew Martello Tower
1pt place Blaklion
Gold Cup
What a mess of a race. Went through all the runners and by the end I had a cast iron reason for each of them why it was impossible for them to win. For some reason people in Ireland seem to rate Carlingford Lough as our great white hope for this race. If you are one of these people go back and watch the end of last years RSA - turning for home he has his chance. If he was good enough to win a GC he would have been good enough to win a poor enough RSA from there (instead of getting beaten back to 6th). Would say the same as regards Silvi Conti and last years GC. Djackadam is still a baby and his Thyestes win is way over-rated. Bobs Worth is over the hill and the over-night rain prob just tip the scales against Holywell and my previous pick Lord Windermere. So that leaves Many Couds and Coneygree. In a marginal call on a very marginal bet I'm going to side with Coneygree and hope that connections are rewarded for their bravery in trying to take this down rather than going the novice route of the RSA - at 8 this is probably his best chance in a weak renewal.
0.5pts ew Coneygree 10/1
Hunter Chase
Think the combination of overnight rain and having Nina Carberry ride makes it very hard to get away from a bet on On the Fringe here especially given the 4 places. Even if Salsify is back to 100% a bit of juice in the ground could see him struggle to get to grips with On The Fringe and I would be very skeptical of Paint the Clouds UK form although SWC's safe jumping should see him run on into a place.
On The Fringe 1.5 pts e/w
Martin Pipe:
I really did not expect my bet of the day (one of the bets of the meeting) to come in the Martin Pipe but you look down through all the horses laid out for this race and scan down the page then just as you get to the bottom you see a proper G2 horse running off bottom weight...seems flat out wrong to me. Killultagh Vic beat Windors Park the last time out when running behind (hopefully the AB winner) Martello Tower. He's the best horse in the race and gets weight from most of his competitors.
2.5pts ew Killultagh Vic 10/1
Grand Annual:
Would usually already be at the bar by the time this kicks off happy to wait another year for my gambling fix but given the ridiculous price of Ned Buntline seem unlikely I'll be able to resist a bet against him here. At the minute Blood Cotil looks to be my pick against him but that could change when I look into it more tomorrow
Wednesday, 11 March 2015
The Vau Factor
Pretty flat day today so if that's the worst the week has in store for us I'll take that. Just a quick round up tonight but not at my real job on Friday so probably will have a longer post first thing Friday morning for the last days action.
JLT Chase:
In a word Vautour. Phenomenal hurdler last year who only ended up chasing because Faugheen just edged him in terms of hurdles forms in Willie's eyes. Then only ended up over 2m4f because Un de Sceaux was a machine over 2m. I actually think he could have beaten both those horses but having ended up chasing over 2m4f there is still nothing comes close to him. Bar a fall he wins - its that simple. I think the English form is flattering Ptit Zig a little and despite being beaten by Don Poli over 3m I think Apache Stronghold will be better over that trip in time - that said he is likely to give the favourite the most to think about. Irish Saint isn't top class but might run on into a place at a bigger price. Vautour is a best of 2/1 now but I think someone probably tries to take him on in the morning and you get 9/4.
3pts Vautour best morning price
0.25pts ew Irish Saint 16/1 PP (get your win stake back as a free bet if he runs into 2nd or 3rd)
Pertemps:
Hard to get away from Brother Brians form looks very progressive and not at all harshly treated under 11-4
1pt ew Brother Brian 10/1
Ryanair:
For me a race that revolves around 3 horses. The best horse in the race is Balder Success but he won't be winning - not tomorrow. He's been to Cheltenham 3 times and his form there reads FUF. Now I would actually forgive him his last one where he fell at the second last with a low sun in his eyes. The other 2 falls however both came at the 4th last which is the first downhill jump. If you can't jump downhill at speed you are not going to win a big race at Cheltenham it really is that simple. Now so far this season Balder Success has been beaten 7ls by Dodging Bullets, 4ls by Somersby and 2ls by Special Tiara. Here is todays Champion Chase result:
1.5pts ew Ma Filleule
0.5pts ew Taquin du Seuil
World Hurdle:
Really comes down to 2 horses for me here. Saphir du Rheu gave 6lbs and a beating (just) to Whisper in last seasons Welsh Champion Hurdle and then stayed on for a course and distance win in January after chasing plans were shelved for another year. See him as the most likely winner but it is possible that last years Coral Cup winner Whisper has improved enough to just deny him. Pretty confident both will place (especially if you can get the 4 places with WH) and happy to keep both on side.
1.5pts e/w Saphir du Rheu
0.75pts e/w Whisper
In the last Just a Par may be being set a more reasonable task than last years RSA but won't be heavily involved
0.25pts ew Just A Par
JLT Chase:
In a word Vautour. Phenomenal hurdler last year who only ended up chasing because Faugheen just edged him in terms of hurdles forms in Willie's eyes. Then only ended up over 2m4f because Un de Sceaux was a machine over 2m. I actually think he could have beaten both those horses but having ended up chasing over 2m4f there is still nothing comes close to him. Bar a fall he wins - its that simple. I think the English form is flattering Ptit Zig a little and despite being beaten by Don Poli over 3m I think Apache Stronghold will be better over that trip in time - that said he is likely to give the favourite the most to think about. Irish Saint isn't top class but might run on into a place at a bigger price. Vautour is a best of 2/1 now but I think someone probably tries to take him on in the morning and you get 9/4.
3pts Vautour best morning price
0.25pts ew Irish Saint 16/1 PP (get your win stake back as a free bet if he runs into 2nd or 3rd)
Pertemps:
Hard to get away from Brother Brians form looks very progressive and not at all harshly treated under 11-4
1pt ew Brother Brian 10/1
Ryanair:
For me a race that revolves around 3 horses. The best horse in the race is Balder Success but he won't be winning - not tomorrow. He's been to Cheltenham 3 times and his form there reads FUF. Now I would actually forgive him his last one where he fell at the second last with a low sun in his eyes. The other 2 falls however both came at the 4th last which is the first downhill jump. If you can't jump downhill at speed you are not going to win a big race at Cheltenham it really is that simple. Now so far this season Balder Success has been beaten 7ls by Dodging Bullets, 4ls by Somersby and 2ls by Special Tiara. Here is todays Champion Chase result:
15:20
Full result| 1st | 3 Dodging Bullets | 9/2 |
| 2nd | 9 Somersby (IRE) | 33/1 |
| 3rd | 10 Special Tiara | 18/1 |
- Distances 1 ¼, 1 ¾
1.5pts ew Ma Filleule
0.5pts ew Taquin du Seuil
World Hurdle:
Really comes down to 2 horses for me here. Saphir du Rheu gave 6lbs and a beating (just) to Whisper in last seasons Welsh Champion Hurdle and then stayed on for a course and distance win in January after chasing plans were shelved for another year. See him as the most likely winner but it is possible that last years Coral Cup winner Whisper has improved enough to just deny him. Pretty confident both will place (especially if you can get the 4 places with WH) and happy to keep both on side.
1.5pts e/w Saphir du Rheu
0.75pts e/w Whisper
In the last Just a Par may be being set a more reasonable task than last years RSA but won't be heavily involved
0.25pts ew Just A Par
Tuesday, 10 March 2015
I got a fever and the only cure is...
Solid start to the week with Mullins delivering our 14/1 (just). On to tomorrow might not have time to cover the whole card so we'll start with the big one.
Champion Chase:
Only one bet can be considered here. Who knows how much ability Sprinter Sacre retains. As a french bred you would assume we'll never see him back close to what we remember of him from 2 years ago and couldn't be taking a chance on him at current prices. Sire de Grugy has only 16 days rest since he was given an unnecessarily hard race on bad ground under top weight and connections admitted he finished tired. The last time out was the first time Dodging Bullets had won a race past the turn of the year in his career and looks to be a winter horse for me. That only really leaves Champagne Fever who really should have made it 3/3 at the festival last year and is the only one of the principles we can trust to run to form. Very hard to see 3 horses beating him and any of the other 3 need everything to go right for them to beat CF. One of the each way bets of the week imo.
3.5pts e/w Champagne Fever
Neptune:
Have been picking up bits and pieces on Outlanders at 6/1 for the past few weeks so probably won't have any more down on this race but I still rate Outlander the best bet. Nichols Canyon probably should and would have gone for the Supreme if Douvan wasn't there. Not convinced 2m 5f is his trip and may be found wanting up the hill. Windsor Park is probably going to improve a bit for the ground but has enough to find with the selection to only be 1 pt bigger and the biggest danger may be Parlour Games who has course and distance form however I can't help feel that possibly Blaklion is a bit over-rated and the Vyta de Roc may have found the trip a little sharp last time at Newbury so possible the form isn't as good as first looks.
1 pt e/w Outlander 4/1
RSA:
In a horrible situation on this one between the horse I think will win and the horse I think is value. I think Don Poli will win but at 7/4 I'm in no rush to get overly involved. He has course form and won one of the best novice chases in Ireland at Leopardstown over the Christmas and comfortably holds most of the field on previous form. I'm probably being overly harsh on King's Palace but given I still have nightmares about how easily he folded 2 out last year I couldn't consider backing him at 4/1. Which really only leaves the value bet of the race Southfield Theatre. The fact that he gave Jetson 8lbs and a 2 length beating in the Pertemps last year when just succumbing to a resurgent Fingal Bay is possibly a bit over looked. Was disappointing the last day against Melodic Rendevous but I expect the extra half mile here to see him in a better light (I hope).
1pt e/w Southfield Theatre 15/2
Coral Cup:
Biggest regret of the festival so far is missing the opening chalk of 33/1 on Dell Arca this evening. At current prices nothing jumping out but will tweet any change of heart tomorrow.
Cross Country:
Sire Collonges looks the stand out bet here given his course form, age and weight profile.
1.5pts ew @15/2
Bumper:
Don't normally get involved here but might have a nibble on Stone Hard. Its interesting that pretty much everyone asked about Willie's bumper horses will talk about Bordini and Bellshill but then can't stop themselves talking about SH's temprement. In the mayhem of a champion bumper that counts for a lot (and its not like he form is too shabby either). Will only be pennies but nice to for once have a root in the gamblefest of the week
Champion Chase:
Only one bet can be considered here. Who knows how much ability Sprinter Sacre retains. As a french bred you would assume we'll never see him back close to what we remember of him from 2 years ago and couldn't be taking a chance on him at current prices. Sire de Grugy has only 16 days rest since he was given an unnecessarily hard race on bad ground under top weight and connections admitted he finished tired. The last time out was the first time Dodging Bullets had won a race past the turn of the year in his career and looks to be a winter horse for me. That only really leaves Champagne Fever who really should have made it 3/3 at the festival last year and is the only one of the principles we can trust to run to form. Very hard to see 3 horses beating him and any of the other 3 need everything to go right for them to beat CF. One of the each way bets of the week imo.
3.5pts e/w Champagne Fever
Neptune:
Have been picking up bits and pieces on Outlanders at 6/1 for the past few weeks so probably won't have any more down on this race but I still rate Outlander the best bet. Nichols Canyon probably should and would have gone for the Supreme if Douvan wasn't there. Not convinced 2m 5f is his trip and may be found wanting up the hill. Windsor Park is probably going to improve a bit for the ground but has enough to find with the selection to only be 1 pt bigger and the biggest danger may be Parlour Games who has course and distance form however I can't help feel that possibly Blaklion is a bit over-rated and the Vyta de Roc may have found the trip a little sharp last time at Newbury so possible the form isn't as good as first looks.
1 pt e/w Outlander 4/1
RSA:
In a horrible situation on this one between the horse I think will win and the horse I think is value. I think Don Poli will win but at 7/4 I'm in no rush to get overly involved. He has course form and won one of the best novice chases in Ireland at Leopardstown over the Christmas and comfortably holds most of the field on previous form. I'm probably being overly harsh on King's Palace but given I still have nightmares about how easily he folded 2 out last year I couldn't consider backing him at 4/1. Which really only leaves the value bet of the race Southfield Theatre. The fact that he gave Jetson 8lbs and a 2 length beating in the Pertemps last year when just succumbing to a resurgent Fingal Bay is possibly a bit over looked. Was disappointing the last day against Melodic Rendevous but I expect the extra half mile here to see him in a better light (I hope).
1pt e/w Southfield Theatre 15/2
Coral Cup:
Biggest regret of the festival so far is missing the opening chalk of 33/1 on Dell Arca this evening. At current prices nothing jumping out but will tweet any change of heart tomorrow.
Cross Country:
Sire Collonges looks the stand out bet here given his course form, age and weight profile.
1.5pts ew @15/2
Bumper:
Don't normally get involved here but might have a nibble on Stone Hard. Its interesting that pretty much everyone asked about Willie's bumper horses will talk about Bordini and Bellshill but then can't stop themselves talking about SH's temprement. In the mayhem of a champion bumper that counts for a lot (and its not like he form is too shabby either). Will only be pennies but nice to for once have a root in the gamblefest of the week
Monday, 9 March 2015
Sometimes you win, sometimes the fish win - this time lets hope its both
Finally after a dark 362 days we are finally on the verge of another Cheltenham. Day 1 is a day that for a long time I thought I wouldn't really be involved in betting-wise struggling to find something to go to war against Mullins hotpots with before eventually coming to my senses and largely surrendering to the inevitability that once again it will be a 'Ruby Tuesday' (wish there were markets on how many times that headline will be used in the next 2 days!) The fish have to win sometimes to keep them interested in the game and tomorrow is a day for the fish but that doesn't mean we can't mop it up too.
There are a couple of spots where e/w betting means it makes sense to make a small stand against him but in at least 3 of the 4 big races he is so far clear of the opposition his biggest danger is the fences
Supreme Novices:
Normally I would scoff at 2/1 on Douvan, a horse that has never raced in a big field, never been put under pressure and largely has had it pretty much all his own way on soft ground so far....however lets look at the competition:
L'ami Serge - solid form but as a second season novice seems like we have probably seen all the improvement their is to see and I'm a little sceptical he will find the improvement necessary to win a Supreme.
Jollyallen - will make a mistake at some point with his jumping and will need a big step up in this department as much as anything to try to threaten.
Everything else bar the pretty average ex-flat racer Qewy has spent most of the winter having Douvan kick dirt in their faces on Willie Mullins gallops so off the limited amount we've seen on them it would be a brave man to say Ruby and Willie have got this one wrong. Paddy Power are giving you a free bet when your horse gets beaten by Douvan so if you really need to have a bet at the current prices a small e/w on Shaneshill to follow in his stablemate could be the call. I'll probably sit this one out (kind of) unless Douvan gets out to 5/2ish though
Arkle:
The biggest danger to Un de Sceuax (possibly the only danger) are the 3rd and 4th last fences when he turns downhill and jumps those 2 fences at the breakneck speed he will be travelling. The foundations for his win was his annihilation of Clarcam and Gilgamboa the last day in Leopardstown - after that pretty much every decent novice chaser decided they should find a different target and the field filled up with a lot of average horses looking to place in an Arkle that bar the favourite has no strength in depth. In doing so he pretty much guaranteed that any doubt about his front-running tactics and dislike of better ground are unlikely to really matter.
Vibrato Valtat is better away from Cheltenham and even then is average at best having just seen off Three Kingdoms at Kempton over Christmas. The only thing Josses Hill has shown us in his chase career so far is that he can't jump and despite a good run here over hurdles last year he's have to be at least twice the price to tempt me to trust him to pull it all togethere when it matters here given what we've seen of him so far. Clarcam was beaten out of sight the last day getting 10lbs and fell when asked to jump the downhill hurdles here last year and given his unusual preparation I would guess connections have been having some trouble with Sgt Reckless this year and that this is more of an after thought. Given the weakness of those behind the market leader some of the bigger prices could easily fill the minor places here. Smashing was outclassed by the 2 best novices in Ireland on his first 2 runs this season before making easy work of an egg and spoon race in Naas the last day. Ran into a place here last year and could sneak the same again here. God's Own lost his way over the winter but there was enough in his runs at the backend of last year and first time out this year to suggest that if they have got his confidence back (bad jumping blunders to blame for last 2 runs) he could easily outrun his 40/1 odds.
Paddy Power are again giving you your win stake back as a free bet when UdS wins so having a small e/w interest on Smashing and Gods Own
0.5pts ew Smashing 25/1
0.5pts ew Gods Own 40/1
Champion Hurdle
Looked at this at the weekend and didn't want to bet it at all with market looking pretty much right. I think Faugheen is going to win but think his price is probably about fair. I would love to see Hurricane Fly win it but unfortunately this is one fairytale I just can't believe in. All season I've been of the opinion that Jezki each way was one of the bets of the festival but the last few days I've started to think I've been making too many excuses for him. Yes he has been trained all season with one day in mind and yes he will be a better horse around Cheltenham but even the last day when 3 from home he had The Fly dead and buried he was still a beaten horse by the time The Fly was looming on his outside as he stumbled at the last. It's one thing making excuses for a horse but you expect that the price lengthen to compensate you for that when in fact the opposite has happened. On the other hand The New One has got nothing but criticism despite coming to Cheltenham unbeaten. Yes he didn't have close to the opposition Jezki had but he always did enough and wasn't exactly wound up for the last race. Ran a decent race in defeat last year and even though I think his jumping is probably just short of whats needed from a champion I do see him running to a similar level to last year which is something I wouldn't be sure about from the rest of those reopposing. I think if Faugheen is found out he will be the one that does it. One outside to mention also is Kitten Rock. A bit young to be winning this but was impressed with his destruction of Tiger Roll the last day at Gowran. If they price up some match bets in the morning vs Bertimont or Vaniteaux they are probably worth a look.
1.5pts e/w The New One 4/1
Mares Hurdle:
Not a lot to say here. Annie Power will win. However couldn't resist the each way thieving on Glens Melody and have backed here at 6/1. 6/4 on the place looks pretty juivy even if we are giving away our win part.
Looking back over the preview above you've probably noticed a common theme - Willie Mullins. I had been considering just lumping on a big accumulator on the 4 favourites sure in the knowledge that each Mullins horse than wins is going to force the next one to go off shorter then I discovered a much better bet. A lot of bookies are pricing up the number of winners Mullins will have on day 1 and bet365 are 14/1 for 4 or more which means you not only have the favourites running for you but all of his second strings which in 2 cases are the 2nd most likely winners imo. Also he has a 16/1 runner in the 4 miler just in case you find yourself 1 short after all the G1's.
The other races are a little less straight forward but have a few sprouting thoughts:
Ultima Chase:
Top 8 look to have too much weight. Ned Stark tried to fall at the first downhill fence on his last visit to Chelt and have my doubts he'll make the finish line this time. Gallant Oscar was laid out for the Thystes and didn't quite pull it off so have to feel like this is more an after thought although still obviously well handicapped. There seems a lot of confidence behind Evan Williams Barrakilla however he's never won over 3 miles and there has to be some doubts about whether he will see this out. Gevrey Chambertins course form of P9P should be enough for even the most reckless punter to be swerving him. So who does that leave - Pendra who has obviously been kept for this since last season but is priced at 7/1 and Smart Freddy who was well beaten over too short a trip by 2 good novices but before that had 2 solid wins over 3 miles to his name. Carrying 10-7 and priced at 33/1 i'm willing to take my chances on the latter.
0.5pts ew Smart Freddy 33/1
In the last the favourite looks about right to me - great run here last year behind Don Poli and although probably a bit flattered to how close he came to Vibrat Valtat and Three Kingdoms he should be able to get involved off this weight. Little more of a watching brief here though
0.25pts ew Thomas Crapper
There are a couple of spots where e/w betting means it makes sense to make a small stand against him but in at least 3 of the 4 big races he is so far clear of the opposition his biggest danger is the fences
Supreme Novices:
Normally I would scoff at 2/1 on Douvan, a horse that has never raced in a big field, never been put under pressure and largely has had it pretty much all his own way on soft ground so far....however lets look at the competition:
L'ami Serge - solid form but as a second season novice seems like we have probably seen all the improvement their is to see and I'm a little sceptical he will find the improvement necessary to win a Supreme.
Jollyallen - will make a mistake at some point with his jumping and will need a big step up in this department as much as anything to try to threaten.
Everything else bar the pretty average ex-flat racer Qewy has spent most of the winter having Douvan kick dirt in their faces on Willie Mullins gallops so off the limited amount we've seen on them it would be a brave man to say Ruby and Willie have got this one wrong. Paddy Power are giving you a free bet when your horse gets beaten by Douvan so if you really need to have a bet at the current prices a small e/w on Shaneshill to follow in his stablemate could be the call. I'll probably sit this one out (kind of) unless Douvan gets out to 5/2ish though
Arkle:
The biggest danger to Un de Sceuax (possibly the only danger) are the 3rd and 4th last fences when he turns downhill and jumps those 2 fences at the breakneck speed he will be travelling. The foundations for his win was his annihilation of Clarcam and Gilgamboa the last day in Leopardstown - after that pretty much every decent novice chaser decided they should find a different target and the field filled up with a lot of average horses looking to place in an Arkle that bar the favourite has no strength in depth. In doing so he pretty much guaranteed that any doubt about his front-running tactics and dislike of better ground are unlikely to really matter.
Vibrato Valtat is better away from Cheltenham and even then is average at best having just seen off Three Kingdoms at Kempton over Christmas. The only thing Josses Hill has shown us in his chase career so far is that he can't jump and despite a good run here over hurdles last year he's have to be at least twice the price to tempt me to trust him to pull it all togethere when it matters here given what we've seen of him so far. Clarcam was beaten out of sight the last day getting 10lbs and fell when asked to jump the downhill hurdles here last year and given his unusual preparation I would guess connections have been having some trouble with Sgt Reckless this year and that this is more of an after thought. Given the weakness of those behind the market leader some of the bigger prices could easily fill the minor places here. Smashing was outclassed by the 2 best novices in Ireland on his first 2 runs this season before making easy work of an egg and spoon race in Naas the last day. Ran into a place here last year and could sneak the same again here. God's Own lost his way over the winter but there was enough in his runs at the backend of last year and first time out this year to suggest that if they have got his confidence back (bad jumping blunders to blame for last 2 runs) he could easily outrun his 40/1 odds.
Paddy Power are again giving you your win stake back as a free bet when UdS wins so having a small e/w interest on Smashing and Gods Own
0.5pts ew Smashing 25/1
0.5pts ew Gods Own 40/1
Champion Hurdle
Looked at this at the weekend and didn't want to bet it at all with market looking pretty much right. I think Faugheen is going to win but think his price is probably about fair. I would love to see Hurricane Fly win it but unfortunately this is one fairytale I just can't believe in. All season I've been of the opinion that Jezki each way was one of the bets of the festival but the last few days I've started to think I've been making too many excuses for him. Yes he has been trained all season with one day in mind and yes he will be a better horse around Cheltenham but even the last day when 3 from home he had The Fly dead and buried he was still a beaten horse by the time The Fly was looming on his outside as he stumbled at the last. It's one thing making excuses for a horse but you expect that the price lengthen to compensate you for that when in fact the opposite has happened. On the other hand The New One has got nothing but criticism despite coming to Cheltenham unbeaten. Yes he didn't have close to the opposition Jezki had but he always did enough and wasn't exactly wound up for the last race. Ran a decent race in defeat last year and even though I think his jumping is probably just short of whats needed from a champion I do see him running to a similar level to last year which is something I wouldn't be sure about from the rest of those reopposing. I think if Faugheen is found out he will be the one that does it. One outside to mention also is Kitten Rock. A bit young to be winning this but was impressed with his destruction of Tiger Roll the last day at Gowran. If they price up some match bets in the morning vs Bertimont or Vaniteaux they are probably worth a look.
1.5pts e/w The New One 4/1
Mares Hurdle:
Not a lot to say here. Annie Power will win. However couldn't resist the each way thieving on Glens Melody and have backed here at 6/1. 6/4 on the place looks pretty juivy even if we are giving away our win part.
Looking back over the preview above you've probably noticed a common theme - Willie Mullins. I had been considering just lumping on a big accumulator on the 4 favourites sure in the knowledge that each Mullins horse than wins is going to force the next one to go off shorter then I discovered a much better bet. A lot of bookies are pricing up the number of winners Mullins will have on day 1 and bet365 are 14/1 for 4 or more which means you not only have the favourites running for you but all of his second strings which in 2 cases are the 2nd most likely winners imo. Also he has a 16/1 runner in the 4 miler just in case you find yourself 1 short after all the G1's.
The other races are a little less straight forward but have a few sprouting thoughts:
Ultima Chase:
Top 8 look to have too much weight. Ned Stark tried to fall at the first downhill fence on his last visit to Chelt and have my doubts he'll make the finish line this time. Gallant Oscar was laid out for the Thystes and didn't quite pull it off so have to feel like this is more an after thought although still obviously well handicapped. There seems a lot of confidence behind Evan Williams Barrakilla however he's never won over 3 miles and there has to be some doubts about whether he will see this out. Gevrey Chambertins course form of P9P should be enough for even the most reckless punter to be swerving him. So who does that leave - Pendra who has obviously been kept for this since last season but is priced at 7/1 and Smart Freddy who was well beaten over too short a trip by 2 good novices but before that had 2 solid wins over 3 miles to his name. Carrying 10-7 and priced at 33/1 i'm willing to take my chances on the latter.
0.5pts ew Smart Freddy 33/1
In the last the favourite looks about right to me - great run here last year behind Don Poli and although probably a bit flattered to how close he came to Vibrat Valtat and Three Kingdoms he should be able to get involved off this weight. Little more of a watching brief here though
0.25pts ew Thomas Crapper
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