3 days in and a world away from 2.30 on Tuesday. Save to say after today that the Mullins yard is in fine form afterall so back to the drawing board to try to salvage something from the embers of this years festival.
Triumph:
Best not to complicate this one. Seems likes a straightforward match up here between the best of the English Defi du Seuil and the Irish who given there still isnt a standout candidate between the top 3 in the market it would suggest they are probably the weaker of the 2 sides. Defi and done everything asked easily and impressively and no reason he shouldnt come out on top here again with more asked of him. Easy start backing the clear class of the field
1.5pts Defi du Seuil 9/4
Couty Hurdle:
Very nearly got suckered in here by Mick Jazz of his race v Labaik but one swallow does not a summer make and looking through the rest of his form it is hard to argue he is thrown in here and justifies being favourite. Hard to find fault with North Hill Harvey who won a decent Greatwood here back in November and I was very close to backing him however a young horse that has been progressing nicely over the season and may just be the surprise package here is Creivehill. Decent run the last day behind Neon Wolf and at 33/1 is worth a speculative punt.
.75pts ew Creivehill
Albert Bartlett:
Strange lineup here with a couple of those at the top of the market more suited to the JLT than 3m at this point in their careers. Wholestone has a course and distance win but that form hasnt really been franked this week. Augusta Kate is coming off a fall which is a worry. Probably the only really solid option is in the form of The Worlds End who won a solid G2 over 2m7f the last day and he gets a confident vote here to put some of these talking horses in their place.
2pts e/w The Worlds End 10/1
Gold Cup:
The big one. Djackadam is favourite now and probably a worthy one given he has finally had the perfect preparation and at 8 should be in his peak. That said despite coming 2nd in 2 Gold Cups the other 2 times he's visited the track he's landed on his face trying to jump the downhill fences. Thats a pretty big negative in my book and enough to make me swerve him at 3/1. Outlander has never had the best of times in the Cotswolds and at 11 my old favourite Cue Card is probably just pushing on a little. Native River is another I dont fully trust to complete the course and the value is probably with the outsider Bristol de Mai who was punted into favourite against Native River the last day before being found to not be right post race. A solid second last year to the mecurial Black Hercules he could end up having a big say in a below par running of the race.
1pt ew Bristol de Mai 33/1
Foxhunters:
On the Fringe had a great prep for this race the last day and watching it at the time I assumed he would be unopposable come the festival. That said give a man long enough to think about anything and he'll start thinking himself into trouble and with half of Munster singing the praises of some beast called Sweet as a Nut who sluiced in at Limerick over Christmas I've found it too hard to the resist the sirens song and am now opposing one of the sure things of the weeks by siding against OTF. It's Paddy's day though so we can look back on this race with hindsight afterwards and blames it on the drink!
1pt ew Sweet as a Nut 22/1
Martin Pipe:
A mess of a race and the only proper solid form I can find is Coo Star Sivola's 3rd in last years Fred Winter. Solid form all year despite being a little disappointing here on trials day. If you have to have a bet thats the best advice I can give you.
0.5pts ew Coo Star Sivola 10/1
Grand Annual:
If we are still trying to get out by now hopefully someone has already had the foresight to remove your shoelaces and hide the steak knifes. Its one from either end of the betting market that appeal here with a solid favourite in Le Prezien who has won over both course and distance and looks a classy beast and a winner from last year who's lost their way a little since but comes here over a 3lb lower mark Solar Impulse. Both will be backed for small stake but I hope to be sipping champagne long before gnawing my fingernails over this result!
0.5pts ew Solar Impulse 40/1
0.75pts ew Le Prezien 11/2
Thursday, 16 March 2017
Wednesday, 15 March 2017
Time for the super sub
After a day 2 that would have put PSG to shame we are back on the redemption trail tomorrow. Fortunately it seems like the bookies seem intent on providing a few confidence restoring layups so lets crack on with the winners.
JLT:
A few weeks ago Yorkhill would have been many peoples idea of a certainty for this but a lot of flops from Closutton this week and hard to pile in at 11/8 with a few doubts hanging over the yard. Politilogue is the biggest lay of the week at 6/1 and I will be opposing him in the place market - 2 tripes to Cheltenham have seen him unseat and a 20th of 26 at the festival last year. Disko has the ideal trip but think he is a little bit flattered by his win against Our Duke the last day (who I suspect needs a proper stamina test to be seen at his best) and combined with Meades questionable festival record I can easily pass over him. Only really leaves Top Notch who has progressed nicely over the season and is coming into his own over fences now despite needing a ladder to see over most of them. A festival record of 2nd in a Triumph and 5th in a much better Champion Hurdle than this week's makes him a confident pick to finally get his win here tomorrow. Given the doubts over the others at the top of the market it is worth getting with Flying Angel to run into a place. Very solid if not spectacular and was 2nd in the Martin Pipe last year before running Yorkhill to 3 lengths at Aintree.
2pts ew Top Notch 4/1
2pts place Flying Angel 3.9
Pertemps:
Haven't spent a whole lot of time on this one but had my attention drawn to Golden Doyen by a shrewdie that has. Hard to argue with it given he has won 2/3 at the track and touched off For Good Measure in October here giving 8lbs away. Only gives away 5lbs tomorrow and is twice the price of the JP pick.
1pt ew Golden Doyen 16/1
Ryanair:
Plenty of reasons to oppose Un de Sceuax from stable form to trip or just the ground. On the flip side its hard to see Empire of Dirt not being punted into favourite tomorrow with Elliotts horses flying and EOD touted as a Gold Cup contender after his Leopardstown run the last day. Add in a festival victory and I am nearly tempted to back him in the knowledge he WILL start shorter. That said neither would be my pick. I think EOD probably will be seen at his best over 3m plus and looking at the 2m4f specialists in the field its O'Learys other runner that jumps out. Having run both Djackadam and Sizing John to 2.5Ls on his last 2 runs its hard to argue that he should be so much bigger than EOD here (similar form vs Outlander). Josses Hill will run his race and could get some place money. Uxizandre is priced off pre-injury form and must be treated with care at such a short price.
2pt ew Sub Lieutenant 15/2
Stayers Hurdle
All about Uknowwhatimeanharry who is the class of the field. I think he will win but at around 5/4 he's not exactly value. If the Mullins horse started winning again I would definitely want to get Shaneshill onside each way but Jezki is almost certainly not the horse he was and Nichols Canyon almost certainly doesnt stay. That only really leaves Cole Harden who showed enough the last day to suggest he might go close to repeating his heroics of 2 years ago. We'll like only be collecting place money here but think its definitely the most solid bet in the race.
1pt ew Cole Harden 15/2
Mares:
Another race that revolves around the form of Willies stable and again with a few winners early on the card its easy to make a case for doing a forecast with the 2 market leaders here. Given the doubts though and the fact that Willie has 3/5 of the market leaders it probably pays to look elsewhere for the value and La Bague Au Roi (who using a strict line of form through Dusky Legend is not far off Limini in terms of ability) makes the most appeal at 9/1
2pts win La Bague Au Roi
Kim Muir:
Not one for punting more than pennies on but What's Happening is 2/2 at the course and has a reasonable jockey on board which is enough for me here.
0.5pts ew What's Happening 14/1
JLT:
A few weeks ago Yorkhill would have been many peoples idea of a certainty for this but a lot of flops from Closutton this week and hard to pile in at 11/8 with a few doubts hanging over the yard. Politilogue is the biggest lay of the week at 6/1 and I will be opposing him in the place market - 2 tripes to Cheltenham have seen him unseat and a 20th of 26 at the festival last year. Disko has the ideal trip but think he is a little bit flattered by his win against Our Duke the last day (who I suspect needs a proper stamina test to be seen at his best) and combined with Meades questionable festival record I can easily pass over him. Only really leaves Top Notch who has progressed nicely over the season and is coming into his own over fences now despite needing a ladder to see over most of them. A festival record of 2nd in a Triumph and 5th in a much better Champion Hurdle than this week's makes him a confident pick to finally get his win here tomorrow. Given the doubts over the others at the top of the market it is worth getting with Flying Angel to run into a place. Very solid if not spectacular and was 2nd in the Martin Pipe last year before running Yorkhill to 3 lengths at Aintree.
2pts ew Top Notch 4/1
2pts place Flying Angel 3.9
Pertemps:
Haven't spent a whole lot of time on this one but had my attention drawn to Golden Doyen by a shrewdie that has. Hard to argue with it given he has won 2/3 at the track and touched off For Good Measure in October here giving 8lbs away. Only gives away 5lbs tomorrow and is twice the price of the JP pick.
1pt ew Golden Doyen 16/1
Ryanair:
Plenty of reasons to oppose Un de Sceuax from stable form to trip or just the ground. On the flip side its hard to see Empire of Dirt not being punted into favourite tomorrow with Elliotts horses flying and EOD touted as a Gold Cup contender after his Leopardstown run the last day. Add in a festival victory and I am nearly tempted to back him in the knowledge he WILL start shorter. That said neither would be my pick. I think EOD probably will be seen at his best over 3m plus and looking at the 2m4f specialists in the field its O'Learys other runner that jumps out. Having run both Djackadam and Sizing John to 2.5Ls on his last 2 runs its hard to argue that he should be so much bigger than EOD here (similar form vs Outlander). Josses Hill will run his race and could get some place money. Uxizandre is priced off pre-injury form and must be treated with care at such a short price.
2pt ew Sub Lieutenant 15/2
Stayers Hurdle
All about Uknowwhatimeanharry who is the class of the field. I think he will win but at around 5/4 he's not exactly value. If the Mullins horse started winning again I would definitely want to get Shaneshill onside each way but Jezki is almost certainly not the horse he was and Nichols Canyon almost certainly doesnt stay. That only really leaves Cole Harden who showed enough the last day to suggest he might go close to repeating his heroics of 2 years ago. We'll like only be collecting place money here but think its definitely the most solid bet in the race.
1pt ew Cole Harden 15/2
Mares:
Another race that revolves around the form of Willies stable and again with a few winners early on the card its easy to make a case for doing a forecast with the 2 market leaders here. Given the doubts though and the fact that Willie has 3/5 of the market leaders it probably pays to look elsewhere for the value and La Bague Au Roi (who using a strict line of form through Dusky Legend is not far off Limini in terms of ability) makes the most appeal at 9/1
2pts win La Bague Au Roi
Kim Muir:
Not one for punting more than pennies on but What's Happening is 2/2 at the course and has a reasonable jockey on board which is enough for me here.
0.5pts ew What's Happening 14/1
Tuesday, 14 March 2017
Keeping the Wolf from the door
Not the worst of starts with Labaik finally getting his act together and a few wins and places to keep us ticking over. A trickier card for tomorrow but still a few worth getting stuck into.
Neptune:
All revolves around 1 horse for me Neon Wolf's annihilation of Elgin the last day was probably the most impressive novice display of the season and in the hands of the new master Harry Fry I would expect him to confirm himself as the next big star tomorrow. Thats not to say there is no decent opposition here although for the place money I think you need to look a big further down the betting market. Shattered Love has been very impressive in his last 2 wins and before that came out the wrong side of close affairs with the 2 best novice mares in Ireland who dominate the betting for Thursdays mares race (Airlie Beach and Let's Dance). Elliott is flying and if there is to be an upset I expect it to come from her. Willoughby Court is another who will stake a claim here but think will find a couple of these to good for him in the end.
3pts Neon Wolf 15/8
1pt e/w Shattered Love 11/1
RSA Chase:
Very tricky race and could make an arguement against every one of them. Might Bite's display at Christmas before he decided to somersault the last was comfortably the most impressive display of the season where he was about to post a time faster than Thistlecrack in the King George over course and distance. However against that is the fact that he somersaulted the last with the race at his mercy and also more importantly that in 3 visits to Cheltenham he won an egg and spoon race by a length from some overgrown Shetland pony but when faced with any decent opposition on the other 2 occasions he folded very quickly. Whisper would seem to have strong claims off his course win the last day but despite 2 solid runs in Stayers Hurdles here in the past when his build ups had not been ideal I do have the feeling that he needs a flat track to really stay 3m. Alpha des Obeux bled heavily the last day when pulled up a Leopardstown and would be taking a lot on faith to be backing at 5s here. Only really leaves Acapello Bourgouis who galloped relentlessly away from a decent field in Navan the last day when given an easy lead. Don't doubt that she'll stay and that could be enough in a field which as of yet would seem to lack a stand out star.
0.5pts e/w Acappello Bourgouis
Coral Cup:
Big field to trawl through here and a few horses near the top of the betting which are unknown quanitities to a certain extent and so maybe thrown in. However without the inside scoop on them probably better to concentrate on what we do know. Tombstone deserves favouritism given the form of last years Supreme where he was 4th ahead of several of these and he was impressive the last day when accounting for Jezki easily. That said at 4/1 in such a competitive handicap he's probably about right. The 1 horse that did stand out though was Peregrine Run who is a course and distance winner having beaten Wholestone and Western Approach (2nd and 3rd fav for Fri Albert Bartlett) well back in November. A little disappointing the last day but gets a few pound relief for that and at around 9/1 looks rock solid to me. The other horse I can't avoid backing is Leoncavello. 5th in last years Triumph having beaten Sceau Royal earlier in the year things haven't really clicked for him this year but at 66/1 I'll be kicking myself if tomorrow is the day it all falls into place when I've finally lost hope.
1.5pts ew Pergrine Run 9/1
0.5pts ew Leoncavallo 66/1
Queen Mother:
All about Douvan - streets clear and possibly an even better 2/7 bet than Altior today. Think the field is very poor and the only one improving is Fox Norton who is already better than the rest of these and should be backed w/o the fav.
2pts Fox Norton w/o Douvan 11/4
Cross Country:
Usually an Enda Bolger benefit and Cantlow the worthy favourite. That said a horse who always seems to be there or there abouts is Ballyboker Bridge - wouldnt need a huge amount of luck to make the frame so happy to have a dart at 10 times the price.
0.5pts ew Ballyboker Bridge
Fred Winter:
Paul Nicholls is never far away with this race and hard to argue with backing his runners here especially Dreamcatching however one curious piece of form does jump out at me in Poker Play. Beat Charli Parcs on his debut in France (although probably not a true run race given how bunched the finish was) and won again at Enghien before being brought to England. Disappointed on his UK debut but forgiving him that he could prove to be a lot better than the mark he's been given here. At 20/1 I'm willing to take a chance.
1pt ew Poker Play 20/1
Neptune:
All revolves around 1 horse for me Neon Wolf's annihilation of Elgin the last day was probably the most impressive novice display of the season and in the hands of the new master Harry Fry I would expect him to confirm himself as the next big star tomorrow. Thats not to say there is no decent opposition here although for the place money I think you need to look a big further down the betting market. Shattered Love has been very impressive in his last 2 wins and before that came out the wrong side of close affairs with the 2 best novice mares in Ireland who dominate the betting for Thursdays mares race (Airlie Beach and Let's Dance). Elliott is flying and if there is to be an upset I expect it to come from her. Willoughby Court is another who will stake a claim here but think will find a couple of these to good for him in the end.
3pts Neon Wolf 15/8
1pt e/w Shattered Love 11/1
RSA Chase:
Very tricky race and could make an arguement against every one of them. Might Bite's display at Christmas before he decided to somersault the last was comfortably the most impressive display of the season where he was about to post a time faster than Thistlecrack in the King George over course and distance. However against that is the fact that he somersaulted the last with the race at his mercy and also more importantly that in 3 visits to Cheltenham he won an egg and spoon race by a length from some overgrown Shetland pony but when faced with any decent opposition on the other 2 occasions he folded very quickly. Whisper would seem to have strong claims off his course win the last day but despite 2 solid runs in Stayers Hurdles here in the past when his build ups had not been ideal I do have the feeling that he needs a flat track to really stay 3m. Alpha des Obeux bled heavily the last day when pulled up a Leopardstown and would be taking a lot on faith to be backing at 5s here. Only really leaves Acapello Bourgouis who galloped relentlessly away from a decent field in Navan the last day when given an easy lead. Don't doubt that she'll stay and that could be enough in a field which as of yet would seem to lack a stand out star.
0.5pts e/w Acappello Bourgouis
Coral Cup:
Big field to trawl through here and a few horses near the top of the betting which are unknown quanitities to a certain extent and so maybe thrown in. However without the inside scoop on them probably better to concentrate on what we do know. Tombstone deserves favouritism given the form of last years Supreme where he was 4th ahead of several of these and he was impressive the last day when accounting for Jezki easily. That said at 4/1 in such a competitive handicap he's probably about right. The 1 horse that did stand out though was Peregrine Run who is a course and distance winner having beaten Wholestone and Western Approach (2nd and 3rd fav for Fri Albert Bartlett) well back in November. A little disappointing the last day but gets a few pound relief for that and at around 9/1 looks rock solid to me. The other horse I can't avoid backing is Leoncavello. 5th in last years Triumph having beaten Sceau Royal earlier in the year things haven't really clicked for him this year but at 66/1 I'll be kicking myself if tomorrow is the day it all falls into place when I've finally lost hope.
1.5pts ew Pergrine Run 9/1
0.5pts ew Leoncavallo 66/1
Queen Mother:
All about Douvan - streets clear and possibly an even better 2/7 bet than Altior today. Think the field is very poor and the only one improving is Fox Norton who is already better than the rest of these and should be backed w/o the fav.
2pts Fox Norton w/o Douvan 11/4
Cross Country:
Usually an Enda Bolger benefit and Cantlow the worthy favourite. That said a horse who always seems to be there or there abouts is Ballyboker Bridge - wouldnt need a huge amount of luck to make the frame so happy to have a dart at 10 times the price.
0.5pts ew Ballyboker Bridge
Fred Winter:
Paul Nicholls is never far away with this race and hard to argue with backing his runners here especially Dreamcatching however one curious piece of form does jump out at me in Poker Play. Beat Charli Parcs on his debut in France (although probably not a true run race given how bunched the finish was) and won again at Enghien before being brought to England. Disappointed on his UK debut but forgiving him that he could prove to be a lot better than the mark he's been given here. At 20/1 I'm willing to take a chance.
1pt ew Poker Play 20/1
Monday, 13 March 2017
Racing certainties
If you take no risks you will suffer no defeats. But if you take no risks, you win no victories.
Obviously we are still smarting from last years hiding so lets lets start with some certainties this time before getting into the greyer areas. There are 2 forces on this planet impossible to oppose - gravity and Altior. People probably think in this new era of zero percent interest rates and quantitive easing that the possibility of a decent risk free return has disappeared...wrong. Tomorrow for 3m and 50s you can find a risk free interest account yielding a massive 28% on any main street in Ireland. Simply walk in, lump it all on Altior and before you can slip next store for a quick one and back you will already have made more than most investment funds make in a decade. Barring injury, or another horse falling in front of him like an over-zealous suffragate he WILL win. That said I realise most of ye are not reading this for 2/7 winners so lets get on with the making of a millionaire:
Supreme Novices:
I've struggled for a long time with this. Melon has raced once and tried to bury himself in the turf at the last under no presure. Ballyandy had 2 patently horrendous runs behind Moon Racer before redeeming himself somewhat in the Betfair so possibly it is the case that he just needs a solidly run race to be seen at close to his best at odds of 7/2 I would expect something more solid. Bunk Off Early I toyed with for a long while but not sure that he will stay up this hill and can easy see him leading over the last before being swallowed up in slow motion up the hill. That doesn't leave a whole lot else and the fact that I spent an huge amount of time trying to decide if I should recommend Labaik - a horse that has the ability to win this but isn't that fond of racing (refused to race on last 3 starts) says it all about what it think of the field. If you are close to a computer tomorrow wait until 50 yards in and if Labaik isnt standing disinterestedly at the starting post lump him in-running. If not you may be best taking your chances with River Wylde. He probably would prefer a flat right handed track but he's still the most solid claim I can find. Beat a decent yardstick in Elgin the last day which gives him a fairly close line to Neon Wolfs form (who would have started fav if not choosing the wrong race to compete in). I'll be keeping my bets here to a minimum but
0.5pts ew River Wylde 9/1
1pt (in running if he jumps the first) Labaik
Arkle:
Death, taxes, Altior. This is a race for second. A distant second. However Charbel is very much a second tier horse and is second favourite purely on the basis of having being beaten by the best rather than showing any real ability of his own. The best of the rest looks most likely to be Forest Bihan stayed on the last day to beat 2 of the other also rans here (Cloudy Dream and A Hares Breath) at 25s or even 6s w/o Altior is worth a small nibble. B365 aren't fans of my custom these days so the 25/1 w/Boyles where the first €20 of your win stake will be refunded as a free bet when he comes second to the SP fav seems the way to go.
1pt e.w Forest Bihan 25/1
Ultima
Noble Endeavour came within a nose of beating the mighty Killultagh Vic 2 years ago however the 11lbs for winning at Leopardstown over Christmas might be enough so stop another heroic attempt here.Similarly Un Temp Pour Tout may just find a bit too much weight to amke the frame. The 2 that stand out to me are the novice Singlefarmpayment who I think would have won the last day if not brought down and is already a course and distance winner with Cheltenham form of 11B. Ibis de Rheu won the Martin Pipe last year and ran a solid 3rd on trials day behind Royal Vacation. I think SFP will be the one to side with with decent place claims for IdR. To jump ahead a little bit to the 4m I think we need to look back at a race involving SFP at Ascot earlier in the season where Beware the Bear was very impressive in beating him. I think it is a pretty solid double to back as if SFP franks that form it seem unlikely that BTB can be far from fav in the 4m. SWC may be a significant millstone in a G1 race but in an amateurs race outside of a few top Irish jockey who are amateur only in name he is a very solid option.
0.5pt ew Ibis de Rheu 14/1
1pt ew Single Farm Payment
.5pts Double: Singlefarmpayment/Beware The Bear
Champion Hurdle:
No standout star this year but hard to argue that Yanworth deserves to be favourite. I had a nibble at slightly bigger prices and wouldnt put anyone off getting involved here however it seems a very open race to me and the value looks to be with the outsiders. Of them Chtibello looks the most appealing. A 6yo that is still improving and hasn't been a million miles away from Yanworth on the last 2 starts. Yes he does need significant improvement to get his nose in front here but a wind operation since his last run might be just whats needed to spring a suprise here.
1pt ew Chtibello 28/1
Mares Hurdle
My entire betting strategy on this race has revolved around Vroum Vroum Mag. Seems like she is not 100% since returning sick from Doncaster the last day which has resulted in Limini turning up here rather than take her chance in the Champion. Given there are 4 G1/G2 horses in the race and there are doubts about 1 of them it makes the pace betting pretty straight forward! I have backed Limini to win, Apples Jade ew and Jer's Girl to place. Of them Apples Jade ew is comfortably the best bet. Was probably in need of the run when smashed by Limini the last day but at one stage was a CH contenders and hard to see her out of the top 3 here. If Limini isnt the hype horse we are led to believe she will win.
2.5pts ew Apples Jade 9/2
1pt Jers Girl to place 3.4
4m NH Chase
Having a real jockey in this makes a phenomenal difference and all the best horse have all the best jockeys. A Genie in a Bottle is a worthy fav given how close he got to Anibale Fly the last day and with the Codfather on board he is sure to go close. Edwulf has the ability but has a question mark over his jumping and Beware the Bear has the best UK form on offer. I would honestly back all 3 in the place market given their jockeys. Hopefully BTB will bring up a double for us but most likely will run into a place behind the Genie.
.5pts ew A Genie in a Bottle
.5pts ew Edwulf
.5pts ew Beware the Bear
Close Bro Handicap:
In the last the market pretty much has it right. I see it as a match between the impressivel winner the last day Foxtail Hill and the best of the rest last year behind Yorkhill and Yanworth - Itsafreebee. Will side with the latter at small stakes to land me enough to tide me over til day 2!
1pt ew Itsafreebee 9/1
Obviously we are still smarting from last years hiding so lets lets start with some certainties this time before getting into the greyer areas. There are 2 forces on this planet impossible to oppose - gravity and Altior. People probably think in this new era of zero percent interest rates and quantitive easing that the possibility of a decent risk free return has disappeared...wrong. Tomorrow for 3m and 50s you can find a risk free interest account yielding a massive 28% on any main street in Ireland. Simply walk in, lump it all on Altior and before you can slip next store for a quick one and back you will already have made more than most investment funds make in a decade. Barring injury, or another horse falling in front of him like an over-zealous suffragate he WILL win. That said I realise most of ye are not reading this for 2/7 winners so lets get on with the making of a millionaire:
Supreme Novices:
I've struggled for a long time with this. Melon has raced once and tried to bury himself in the turf at the last under no presure. Ballyandy had 2 patently horrendous runs behind Moon Racer before redeeming himself somewhat in the Betfair so possibly it is the case that he just needs a solidly run race to be seen at close to his best at odds of 7/2 I would expect something more solid. Bunk Off Early I toyed with for a long while but not sure that he will stay up this hill and can easy see him leading over the last before being swallowed up in slow motion up the hill. That doesn't leave a whole lot else and the fact that I spent an huge amount of time trying to decide if I should recommend Labaik - a horse that has the ability to win this but isn't that fond of racing (refused to race on last 3 starts) says it all about what it think of the field. If you are close to a computer tomorrow wait until 50 yards in and if Labaik isnt standing disinterestedly at the starting post lump him in-running. If not you may be best taking your chances with River Wylde. He probably would prefer a flat right handed track but he's still the most solid claim I can find. Beat a decent yardstick in Elgin the last day which gives him a fairly close line to Neon Wolfs form (who would have started fav if not choosing the wrong race to compete in). I'll be keeping my bets here to a minimum but
0.5pts ew River Wylde 9/1
1pt (in running if he jumps the first) Labaik
Arkle:
Death, taxes, Altior. This is a race for second. A distant second. However Charbel is very much a second tier horse and is second favourite purely on the basis of having being beaten by the best rather than showing any real ability of his own. The best of the rest looks most likely to be Forest Bihan stayed on the last day to beat 2 of the other also rans here (Cloudy Dream and A Hares Breath) at 25s or even 6s w/o Altior is worth a small nibble. B365 aren't fans of my custom these days so the 25/1 w/Boyles where the first €20 of your win stake will be refunded as a free bet when he comes second to the SP fav seems the way to go.
1pt e.w Forest Bihan 25/1
Ultima
Noble Endeavour came within a nose of beating the mighty Killultagh Vic 2 years ago however the 11lbs for winning at Leopardstown over Christmas might be enough so stop another heroic attempt here.Similarly Un Temp Pour Tout may just find a bit too much weight to amke the frame. The 2 that stand out to me are the novice Singlefarmpayment who I think would have won the last day if not brought down and is already a course and distance winner with Cheltenham form of 11B. Ibis de Rheu won the Martin Pipe last year and ran a solid 3rd on trials day behind Royal Vacation. I think SFP will be the one to side with with decent place claims for IdR. To jump ahead a little bit to the 4m I think we need to look back at a race involving SFP at Ascot earlier in the season where Beware the Bear was very impressive in beating him. I think it is a pretty solid double to back as if SFP franks that form it seem unlikely that BTB can be far from fav in the 4m. SWC may be a significant millstone in a G1 race but in an amateurs race outside of a few top Irish jockey who are amateur only in name he is a very solid option.
0.5pt ew Ibis de Rheu 14/1
1pt ew Single Farm Payment
.5pts Double: Singlefarmpayment/Beware The Bear
Champion Hurdle:
No standout star this year but hard to argue that Yanworth deserves to be favourite. I had a nibble at slightly bigger prices and wouldnt put anyone off getting involved here however it seems a very open race to me and the value looks to be with the outsiders. Of them Chtibello looks the most appealing. A 6yo that is still improving and hasn't been a million miles away from Yanworth on the last 2 starts. Yes he does need significant improvement to get his nose in front here but a wind operation since his last run might be just whats needed to spring a suprise here.
1pt ew Chtibello 28/1
Mares Hurdle
My entire betting strategy on this race has revolved around Vroum Vroum Mag. Seems like she is not 100% since returning sick from Doncaster the last day which has resulted in Limini turning up here rather than take her chance in the Champion. Given there are 4 G1/G2 horses in the race and there are doubts about 1 of them it makes the pace betting pretty straight forward! I have backed Limini to win, Apples Jade ew and Jer's Girl to place. Of them Apples Jade ew is comfortably the best bet. Was probably in need of the run when smashed by Limini the last day but at one stage was a CH contenders and hard to see her out of the top 3 here. If Limini isnt the hype horse we are led to believe she will win.
2.5pts ew Apples Jade 9/2
1pt Jers Girl to place 3.4
4m NH Chase
Having a real jockey in this makes a phenomenal difference and all the best horse have all the best jockeys. A Genie in a Bottle is a worthy fav given how close he got to Anibale Fly the last day and with the Codfather on board he is sure to go close. Edwulf has the ability but has a question mark over his jumping and Beware the Bear has the best UK form on offer. I would honestly back all 3 in the place market given their jockeys. Hopefully BTB will bring up a double for us but most likely will run into a place behind the Genie.
.5pts ew A Genie in a Bottle
.5pts ew Edwulf
.5pts ew Beware the Bear
Close Bro Handicap:
In the last the market pretty much has it right. I see it as a match between the impressivel winner the last day Foxtail Hill and the best of the rest last year behind Yorkhill and Yanworth - Itsafreebee. Will side with the latter at small stakes to land me enough to tide me over til day 2!
1pt ew Itsafreebee 9/1
If you take no risks, you will suffer no defeats. But if you take no risks, you win no victories.
Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/r/richardmn386545.html
Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/r/richardmn386545.html
If you take no risks, you will suffer no defeats. But if you take no risks, you win no victories.
Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/r/richardmn386545.html
Read more at: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/r/richardmn386545.html
Wednesday, 16 March 2016
When you find youself walking thru hell...keep on walking
"We shall heal our wounds, collect our dead and continue fighting" - Mao Tse Tung
I got home from work today to discover my only real winner of the week so far - that while I was at work the gents up in The Corkscrew had managed to deliver 3 cases of their finest wines to my house in my absence. There was a moment (and when I say moment I mean an hour) where I was tempted to turn off my phone, pull the curtains and lock the door and then spend from now til next Monday drinking myself through it but as Ali used to say - Don't quit, suffer now and live your life as a champion. So we fight on to try to salvage something from the wreckage of Cheltenham 2016
JLT:
If you asked 4 hours ago who I thought I would be backing here it would have been a very different answer but digging deeper into the form means Outlander and Bristol de Mai are actually 2 of the first I discounted. Maybe a bit harsh on Outlander to blame him for the tour of the British countryside that Bryan Cooper brought him on while he was trying to win the Neptune last year but put in his place by Shaneshill the next day and despite never being in danger of being beaten over fences over the winter never beat anything of note. Bristol de Mai is probably held by Garde La Victoire who has taken a slightly circuitous route here since beating him in October but has won a hurdle over 2 1/2m around Cheltenham so the step back up in trip probably holds no fears. That said although a worthy favourite is only slight value @4/1 in a pretty open race. Black Hercules has never been a horse I've liked and once again priced off the hype rather than the ability. The 3 Musketeers will have his fans tomorrow but I think there's too much to forgive from his last run to just plough in off the run before. Kings Odessey is a dark horse who I think will outrun his odds but the horse I really want on side is L'Ami Serge. Since he has come to England the horse that have filled the runner up spot to him include - Kilcooley (2nd best hurdles time speed this season) Killultagh Vic (nuff said) and Doctor Harper (we'll come to him later). He only managed 4th at the festival last year but the 3 horses that finished ahead of him have 2 wins and a second already this year. I'll forgive him for getting caught cold against Violet Dancer last time out who looked a real dark horse. He's been overlooked here so smash in.
L'Ami Serge 2pts e/w 9/1
Pertemps:
There is no quantity of wine that could make a man make sense of this race. If I was forced to have a bet I would go with Missed Approach who doesn't seem to like racing often but when he gets to the track he does show a decent level of form. Assuming he doesn't manage to fall out of the horsebox on the way to the track 11/1 seems alright that he'll come out on top
Ryanair:
Vautour should be winning the Gold Cup on Friday. Given he's not, he'll be winning this instead so pretty much trying to find who will be second here so I could try and make a case for 2 horse that should be tailed off in the Gold Cup behind him or an old aged pensioner but instead I'll take my chances with a young gun. Josses Hill beat Gods Own 8Ls the last day (roughly the amount he was beaten in the Champion Chase today) and can easily improve on last years showing. Will be very hard to keep him out of a place.
1.5pts Josses Hill 25/1
World Hurdle:
I should probably flag up in advance that in his career every race that Thistlecrack has run in I have lost cash...the more timid investors may now be running for cover and if you feel like skipping the next paragraph I can't really blame you. If you have kept reading you probably expect me to be talking up Martello which is kinda what I thought I would be doing about lunchtime but but Arbre de Vie and NMH have let down his form from last year today and even though I didn't worry too much about the run over Christmas as his last run back his last run was worrying. Alpha Des Obeuax look the only real danger to the favourite and having raced with the best of them over 2 1/2 he is now looking to take down the very soft 3m division. Think Thistlecrack sluices up but the only horse I see beating him is this guy
1pt e/w Alpha des Obeaux
After this we are running on fumes.. Smart Talk is one of the ew bets of the festivals arounds 7s, Stilletto is a good punt @10/1 and in the last the Doc Harper has ridiculous form being unlucky to come up against some of the best in the business and is rightly fav in the last
Tuesday, 15 March 2016
We go again
Wow that was not the start we were hoping for or expected. 1 winner, 4 fallers and 1 death - if we keep up like this we will be outside Spar with a coffee cup long before the Gold Cup comes around, but we will keep plugging on and hopefully if tomorrows nags can resist the temptation to jump head first into the turf we can replenish the coffers and get ourselves a few bullets to finish off the week in style. At least we have an easy start to things tomorrow
Neptune:
Yanworth is unopposable here imo. He had the best single piece of novice form from his demolition job on trials day and he beat Charbel a lot easier in Ascot in December than Min did earlier so everything points to the fact that despite Yorkhill being a top novice Yanworth should have his measure. Hard to make a strong case for any of the rest.
3pts Yanworth 6/4
RSA:
This is a very tricky one and I am tempted to sit it out as I have doubts about pretty much the whole field. If Shaneshill had shown any ability to jump a fence I would have put him up at a big price but the mistakes he made at Naas under no pressure were punished when stepped up in class at Doncaster. Seeyouatmidnight emptied very quickly when in contention in a poor World Hurdle last year and don't think he really stays a true run 3m. Blaklion is all heart but would be a little worried that even 6 weeks later the battle in the mud the last day may have left a mark. More of That well he has looked impressive and is a former World Hurdle winner but he hasn't raced anything of note so hard to say how much of his old ability really remains (I think he'll win but @ 7/4 happy to pass). So that leaves 2 No More Heroes the horse that a lot of people smarter than me keep telling me is a future Gold Cup horse and I keep looking at them with a confused look on my face going - Really?!? What I do know is he has run 14 races 7 before the turn of the year and 7 after. His record before the turn of the year is 6/7 with just the one defeat on his hurdling debut. Of the 7 runs in the Spring he is 2/7 having taken down a decent bumper and a PTP but losing all 3 graded races. Now thismay be a bit of an abuse of statistics in that all 3 of those races came last spring and he ran a decent race in defeat in the Albert Bartlett but he has definitely never put in a spring performance that would have thinking Gold Cup so at the 5/2 mark I can readily pass especially when a horse who you could argue ran better last spring than he did is 4 times the price. Vyta de Roc beat Outlander a length here last year in the Neptune and was a stumble away from beating Nichols Canyon also. Looked to be coming into form and beat Minella Rocca by 1/2L the last day with him showing himself no slouch earlier today. At 10/1 definitely worth a small nibble.
1pt e/w Vyta du Roc
Coral Cup:
Politologue for last years winnng connections is tough to assess - seemed like he spooked at Cheltenhem in Dec and even though Nicholls is convinced he is well handicapped and has plenty of improvement to come I'm not convinced the occasional of the festival will see him at his best.
Ruby rides Blood Cotil who he was confident of winning on last year but ended up flopping before showing his true form later in the year at Punchestown. I would worry about history repeating itself here and the horse I like is Abre de Vie who ran an eyecatching race 3Ls behind No More Heros last year. In safe hands with David Mullins and likely a better price for the jockey change.
1pt ew Abre de Vie 12/1
Champion Chase:
A lot of horses here priced up on the former glories and will gladly dismiss the chances of the 3 previous winners in the race who all have their best days behind them. Un de Sceaux looked a champion in waiting the last day and my suspicion is the only horse that can beat him is himself. If he jumps well he will win but if Special Tiara takes him on up front it could put pressure on his jumping (2 falls in 7 chase starts) and if that happens the horse I think will be staying on past the others up the hill will be Gods Own. He got within 6Ls of UdS in last years Arkle and realistically speaking I think any of these horses will be delighted to get that close to him this year. If UdS does romp it we should still make a nice profit from the place money if Gods Own finds last years form.
1.5pts ew Gods Own 28/1
Cross Country:
Its not hard to see why Josies Order is a warm favorite in this given his record at the track and having Nina on board. Age and injury may have taken its toll on Balthazar King and I would expect the biggest challenge to come from Sire Collonges - was 2Ls back when they were well clear of Ballyboker Bridge back in December. At 4 times the price I'll take a chance that he can find enough improvement to squeeze by this time around
1.5pts ew Sire Collonges 12/1
Fred Winter:
As close to no opinion as possible on this race. Diego du Charmil could be anything but bookies not taking any chances. Jaleo could be one thats an improving spring horse and could go well but likely I'll already be flicking through Thursdays form by the time this one comes on.
Bumper:
Similar story here - if pushed I would go for a win for the girls with Augusta Kate very impressive winning a listed bumper in Navan but will be keeping stakes to a minimum on this.
Neptune:
Yanworth is unopposable here imo. He had the best single piece of novice form from his demolition job on trials day and he beat Charbel a lot easier in Ascot in December than Min did earlier so everything points to the fact that despite Yorkhill being a top novice Yanworth should have his measure. Hard to make a strong case for any of the rest.
3pts Yanworth 6/4
RSA:
This is a very tricky one and I am tempted to sit it out as I have doubts about pretty much the whole field. If Shaneshill had shown any ability to jump a fence I would have put him up at a big price but the mistakes he made at Naas under no pressure were punished when stepped up in class at Doncaster. Seeyouatmidnight emptied very quickly when in contention in a poor World Hurdle last year and don't think he really stays a true run 3m. Blaklion is all heart but would be a little worried that even 6 weeks later the battle in the mud the last day may have left a mark. More of That well he has looked impressive and is a former World Hurdle winner but he hasn't raced anything of note so hard to say how much of his old ability really remains (I think he'll win but @ 7/4 happy to pass). So that leaves 2 No More Heroes the horse that a lot of people smarter than me keep telling me is a future Gold Cup horse and I keep looking at them with a confused look on my face going - Really?!? What I do know is he has run 14 races 7 before the turn of the year and 7 after. His record before the turn of the year is 6/7 with just the one defeat on his hurdling debut. Of the 7 runs in the Spring he is 2/7 having taken down a decent bumper and a PTP but losing all 3 graded races. Now thismay be a bit of an abuse of statistics in that all 3 of those races came last spring and he ran a decent race in defeat in the Albert Bartlett but he has definitely never put in a spring performance that would have thinking Gold Cup so at the 5/2 mark I can readily pass especially when a horse who you could argue ran better last spring than he did is 4 times the price. Vyta de Roc beat Outlander a length here last year in the Neptune and was a stumble away from beating Nichols Canyon also. Looked to be coming into form and beat Minella Rocca by 1/2L the last day with him showing himself no slouch earlier today. At 10/1 definitely worth a small nibble.
1pt e/w Vyta du Roc
Coral Cup:
Politologue for last years winnng connections is tough to assess - seemed like he spooked at Cheltenhem in Dec and even though Nicholls is convinced he is well handicapped and has plenty of improvement to come I'm not convinced the occasional of the festival will see him at his best.
Ruby rides Blood Cotil who he was confident of winning on last year but ended up flopping before showing his true form later in the year at Punchestown. I would worry about history repeating itself here and the horse I like is Abre de Vie who ran an eyecatching race 3Ls behind No More Heros last year. In safe hands with David Mullins and likely a better price for the jockey change.
1pt ew Abre de Vie 12/1
Champion Chase:
A lot of horses here priced up on the former glories and will gladly dismiss the chances of the 3 previous winners in the race who all have their best days behind them. Un de Sceaux looked a champion in waiting the last day and my suspicion is the only horse that can beat him is himself. If he jumps well he will win but if Special Tiara takes him on up front it could put pressure on his jumping (2 falls in 7 chase starts) and if that happens the horse I think will be staying on past the others up the hill will be Gods Own. He got within 6Ls of UdS in last years Arkle and realistically speaking I think any of these horses will be delighted to get that close to him this year. If UdS does romp it we should still make a nice profit from the place money if Gods Own finds last years form.
1.5pts ew Gods Own 28/1
Cross Country:
Its not hard to see why Josies Order is a warm favorite in this given his record at the track and having Nina on board. Age and injury may have taken its toll on Balthazar King and I would expect the biggest challenge to come from Sire Collonges - was 2Ls back when they were well clear of Ballyboker Bridge back in December. At 4 times the price I'll take a chance that he can find enough improvement to squeeze by this time around
1.5pts ew Sire Collonges 12/1
Fred Winter:
As close to no opinion as possible on this race. Diego du Charmil could be anything but bookies not taking any chances. Jaleo could be one thats an improving spring horse and could go well but likely I'll already be flicking through Thursdays form by the time this one comes on.
Bumper:
Similar story here - if pushed I would go for a win for the girls with Augusta Kate very impressive winning a listed bumper in Navan but will be keeping stakes to a minimum on this.
Monday, 14 March 2016
Supa start to the week
It's been a long tortuous winter but finally spring is here and that can mean only one thing - its time for the Irish to pack their bags and head to the Cotwolds for another lorryload of cash and prizes. Fortunately you don't have to make the long trip over though to get the cash with plenty of bookies more than willing to top up your wheelbarrows closer to home. No fantastic specials like last year with most 'specials' nothing but gimmicks to get you in the door playing the virtual dogs but hopefully with a little but of careful planning we can still seperate them from their cash. No all in lumps on Day 1 but a few little bits and pieces of value and hopefully a bit more will emerge tomorrow morning when the bookies actually start to take opinions (so keep an eye on twitter over the day)
Supreme:
Looks like the Irish will dominate this again. Min is favourite having cruised to 2 wins over the winter without coming off the bridle. The main arguement Ive heard as to why he is a weak favourite is that he is not as good as Douvan or Vautour - the last 2 winners of this. That may be true but trust me none of the other horses in this are in that league either. He's favourite and deserves to be but 9/4-5/2 seems about right for a horse who despite his undoubted abillity has never really had to fight it out in his races. Probably the strongest arguement in his favour is that Graham Wylie thought it was better to take his horse Yorkhill off to fight Yanworth rather than take on Min at his optimum trip. Yanworth and Yorkhill have won the 2 best competitive novice hurdles of the winter and surely would have avoided each other if Yorkhill wasnt second best in the Mullins yard. Find it hard to like the 2 Henderson horses who are next in the market with Altior showing all the signs of a flat track bully when smashing things up in Kempton over Christmas while Buveur D'air beat some pretty average types in his 2 starts. If you want some value in the race I think you could do a lot worse than take a look at Supasundae who smashed previous Cheltenham bumper winner Silver Concorde by 13Ls in a novice hurdle over Christmas and obviously has a decent turn of foot having beaten Yanworth and Thistlecrack in his bumper days. For me he looks the only value in the race at the minute.
1.5pts e/w Supasundae 14/1
Arkle:
Douvan wins. Its that simple. He's 2/5 though so no one is likely to get rich backing that. I've come around to Vaniteax over the season. Before Christmas when adivsing everyone to back Ar Mad (the best 2m chaser in Britain) at Kempton I dismissed him as a hype horse. He put up a great showing that day to lose by 1/4L and I pretty quickly had to re-assess. He got within 6Ls of Vautour in a Supreme and if he gets as close to Douvan he should easily pick up second ahead of Sizing John. Comments from Henderson today that even he doesn't believe Douvan can be beaten and that Vaniteux will be ridden to get his best finishing position ie. 2nd mean if you haven't already taken bigger prices on Vaniteaux w/o Douvan then 7/4 is a decent price.
1pt Vaniteux (w/o Douvan) 7/4
Ultima Handicap:
Very unusual to see a horse go from being 4th in a gold cup 1 year to contesting this the next but thats whats has happened to Holywell with things not really working out for him since last year. Twice a festival winner though he is a horse that comes alive in the spring that said although I couldn't make a great case to tell people not to back him I think McLernon may have made a mistake in not choosing his stable mate Beg to Differ who followed up what was nothing more than a solid 2nd here on New Years Day with a very impressive win at Doncaster the last day. He went up 10lbs for that but there should still be more improvement to come from this 6 yo. Of the others at the top of the market Kruzlinin has the national as his main aim and will probably be more than happy running into a place here. Out Sam is probably the best handicapped horse in the race but racing in a big field on a track that likely wont suit means I can easily overlook the weight he has in hand
0.75pts e/w Beg to Differ 14/1
Champion Hurdle:
Annie Power hasn't had more than a training gallop in any race in the 2 years since More of That outstayed here in the World Hurdle a very classy mare but very skinny price with so many uncertainties on her first full blooded race in a long time. 2 years ago she would have won this race on the bridle but don't really fancy taking 2/1 to find out if that is still the case. Nichols Canyon is a horse I really like but think the Aintree hurdle is really the race for him - the difference in performance last year between the Neptune and the Mersey hurdle was pretty stark. Still think he will do enough to hold Identity Thief who has pretty close form with Top Notch who now looks the best of the top 3 in last years Triumph who all line up here and so I would also discount them too (although don't be surprised if Top Notch sneaks a place). All that leaves is The New One who without ever looking overly impressive this year has still beaten all in front of him with the exception of Faugheen. He possibly should have won this race 2 years ago and it really is now or never this time around. I think in a pretty open race he finally might have his time.
1.5 pts ew The New One 6/1
0.25pts ew Top Notch 18/1
Mares Hurdle:
Very hard to make a case against Vroum Vroum Mag who has won 8 in a row now on the bridle. Would expect Polly Peachum and a rehabilitated Bitofapuzzle to fight out the minor places like last year.
2.5pts Vroum Vroum Mag 11/10
0.5pts ew Polly Peachum 6/1
0.5pts ew Bitofapuzzle 16/1
National Hunt Chase
Easiest race of the day for me. Noble Endevour just failed to give 5lb to Killultagh Vic by a nostril last year and that horse would be favourite for the JLT if it wasn't for injury. Hasn't done anything wrong since and has been laid out for this all season. Back with confidence.
2.5pts ew Noble Endevour 7/1
Novice Handicap Chase
Trickiest race on the card and a lot to sift through. The one thing that stands out as possibly being overlooked is French recruit Rezorbi. Had a few wins in France before moving to Jonjo's yard and was just starting to move into contention on trials day before coming down 3 out. Worth a nibble.
0.5pts ew Rezorbi
Supreme:
Looks like the Irish will dominate this again. Min is favourite having cruised to 2 wins over the winter without coming off the bridle. The main arguement Ive heard as to why he is a weak favourite is that he is not as good as Douvan or Vautour - the last 2 winners of this. That may be true but trust me none of the other horses in this are in that league either. He's favourite and deserves to be but 9/4-5/2 seems about right for a horse who despite his undoubted abillity has never really had to fight it out in his races. Probably the strongest arguement in his favour is that Graham Wylie thought it was better to take his horse Yorkhill off to fight Yanworth rather than take on Min at his optimum trip. Yanworth and Yorkhill have won the 2 best competitive novice hurdles of the winter and surely would have avoided each other if Yorkhill wasnt second best in the Mullins yard. Find it hard to like the 2 Henderson horses who are next in the market with Altior showing all the signs of a flat track bully when smashing things up in Kempton over Christmas while Buveur D'air beat some pretty average types in his 2 starts. If you want some value in the race I think you could do a lot worse than take a look at Supasundae who smashed previous Cheltenham bumper winner Silver Concorde by 13Ls in a novice hurdle over Christmas and obviously has a decent turn of foot having beaten Yanworth and Thistlecrack in his bumper days. For me he looks the only value in the race at the minute.
1.5pts e/w Supasundae 14/1
Arkle:
Douvan wins. Its that simple. He's 2/5 though so no one is likely to get rich backing that. I've come around to Vaniteax over the season. Before Christmas when adivsing everyone to back Ar Mad (the best 2m chaser in Britain) at Kempton I dismissed him as a hype horse. He put up a great showing that day to lose by 1/4L and I pretty quickly had to re-assess. He got within 6Ls of Vautour in a Supreme and if he gets as close to Douvan he should easily pick up second ahead of Sizing John. Comments from Henderson today that even he doesn't believe Douvan can be beaten and that Vaniteux will be ridden to get his best finishing position ie. 2nd mean if you haven't already taken bigger prices on Vaniteaux w/o Douvan then 7/4 is a decent price.
1pt Vaniteux (w/o Douvan) 7/4
Ultima Handicap:
Very unusual to see a horse go from being 4th in a gold cup 1 year to contesting this the next but thats whats has happened to Holywell with things not really working out for him since last year. Twice a festival winner though he is a horse that comes alive in the spring that said although I couldn't make a great case to tell people not to back him I think McLernon may have made a mistake in not choosing his stable mate Beg to Differ who followed up what was nothing more than a solid 2nd here on New Years Day with a very impressive win at Doncaster the last day. He went up 10lbs for that but there should still be more improvement to come from this 6 yo. Of the others at the top of the market Kruzlinin has the national as his main aim and will probably be more than happy running into a place here. Out Sam is probably the best handicapped horse in the race but racing in a big field on a track that likely wont suit means I can easily overlook the weight he has in hand
0.75pts e/w Beg to Differ 14/1
Champion Hurdle:
Annie Power hasn't had more than a training gallop in any race in the 2 years since More of That outstayed here in the World Hurdle a very classy mare but very skinny price with so many uncertainties on her first full blooded race in a long time. 2 years ago she would have won this race on the bridle but don't really fancy taking 2/1 to find out if that is still the case. Nichols Canyon is a horse I really like but think the Aintree hurdle is really the race for him - the difference in performance last year between the Neptune and the Mersey hurdle was pretty stark. Still think he will do enough to hold Identity Thief who has pretty close form with Top Notch who now looks the best of the top 3 in last years Triumph who all line up here and so I would also discount them too (although don't be surprised if Top Notch sneaks a place). All that leaves is The New One who without ever looking overly impressive this year has still beaten all in front of him with the exception of Faugheen. He possibly should have won this race 2 years ago and it really is now or never this time around. I think in a pretty open race he finally might have his time.
1.5 pts ew The New One 6/1
0.25pts ew Top Notch 18/1
Mares Hurdle:
Very hard to make a case against Vroum Vroum Mag who has won 8 in a row now on the bridle. Would expect Polly Peachum and a rehabilitated Bitofapuzzle to fight out the minor places like last year.
2.5pts Vroum Vroum Mag 11/10
0.5pts ew Polly Peachum 6/1
0.5pts ew Bitofapuzzle 16/1
National Hunt Chase
Easiest race of the day for me. Noble Endevour just failed to give 5lb to Killultagh Vic by a nostril last year and that horse would be favourite for the JLT if it wasn't for injury. Hasn't done anything wrong since and has been laid out for this all season. Back with confidence.
2.5pts ew Noble Endevour 7/1
Novice Handicap Chase
Trickiest race on the card and a lot to sift through. The one thing that stands out as possibly being overlooked is French recruit Rezorbi. Had a few wins in France before moving to Jonjo's yard and was just starting to move into contention on trials day before coming down 3 out. Worth a nibble.
0.5pts ew Rezorbi
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)