Perfect 10

 Hard to believe that it's a year since I was rushing out the last Cheltenham blog as the markets went into meltdown and then we all went into hibernation, and somehow haven't come out since. On the one hand that's robbed me off my 3 annual research pilgrimages to the Cheltenham November meeting, Christmas at Leopardstown and the increasingly important Dublin racing festival. Some things can only be properly appreciated in the flesh and the days at the track absorbed in obscure form lines can be hard to replace. On the other hand my monk like existence these last couple of months has given me more time than normal to trawl through videos and explore the various rabbit holes I fall down to their fullest. Swings and roundabout I guess and hopefully it will still lead to fruitful hunting this week. Judging by the oddschecker sea of blue on the horse's I was discussing on zoom with the other 2 parts of  Riskit's 3 wise men on Sunday night we might just be on to something so lets get punting before the value's all gone.

Supreme Novices:

Regular readers will know that I don't put up short priced WPM horses lightly and the point has been made (quite forcefully) by some  that if they keep winning why cant we just back them instead of some French 'value' loser. Now I've looked at the Supreme inside out and spent most of the time looking for a reason not to back Appreciate It. There was a brief moment of madness when I got caught up in the hype of Soaring Glory's Betfair hurdle win only to quickly come to my senses and look at the numbers. Soaring Glory won the Betfair hurdle off 133 and with the bad weather pushing it back a week has a shorter turn around than any previous winner trying to double up in the Supreme. Think back a couple of years to 2 properly impressive Betfair winners - Kalashnikov and My Tent or Yours. They won the Betfair off 141 and 149 respectively and both narrowly fell short in the Supreme despite being a half a stone and a stone better than SG and having a week longer to recover. Metier is probably the only decent UK novice hurdler but despite looking impressive in the Tolworth the horse that trailed in behind him that day was well down the field in the Betfair the next day so hard to get too carried away. The rest of the field (pretty much) have all already had at least 1 crack at Appreciate It and never landed a blow. He was 1/3 the last day to beat a stronger field than this and even though Ballyadam came looming at the last Appreciate It settled it quickly with the minimum of fuss. He should be odds on tomorrow and likely will be by the off judging by the moves today. That Novice Hurdle at the Dublin festival is the strongest piece of novice form in these islands this year by a distance and it is worth examining a little bit closer than just looking at what the winner did. Appreciate It pulled 3Ls clear of Ballyadam who in turn pulled a few lengths clear of 4 horses finishing in a heap behind. But those 6 horses put some distance between themselves and the rest of the field who were no mugs themselves - Cask Mate and Ngolo were 2nd and 3rd in the Royal Bond and beaten out of sight here and Wide Receiver was many peoples idea on a handicap sure thing before the decision was made to stay in Ireland. Looking at those 4 horses - Blue Lord and Irascible both run in the Supreme but Hook Up who was staying on like a train at the end goes to the Mares Novice (5/1) and Galopin Des Champ goes to the Martin Pipe running off a pretty fair 142 (12/1). Both are Mullins main challenger in those events and both will surely be a lot shorter after Appreciate wins tomorrow. The treble with pay ~148/1 and is surely worth the price of a pint at least. So just like buses after waiting for so long for me to tip a Mullins hotpot you get 3 for the price of 1! To completely max out the value of the Chanelle Pharma Hurdle we are also going to stick Ballyadam in with Appreciate it for the forecast.

1pt Appreciate It to win evens

.5pts Appreciate It/Ballyadam forecast

.5pts Appreciate It/Hook Up double 11/1

.25pts Appreciate It/Hook Up/Galopin Des Champs treble 148/1

The Arkle:

From a feast to a famine. I had spent an eternity examining the pace angle of this race and what would likely happen when Energumene wouldn't allow Allmankind an unchallenged lead. I had imagined all sort of scenarios with a pace collapse allowing a heroic Franco de Port to pass them all up the hill but then fate intervened and Energumene was a NR turning an intriguing contest into a likely procession. Shiskin wins bar a fall and the others are largely correctly priced in the betting without market. If you need something to cheer stick Shiskin in an acca but I'll be sitting this one out.

No bet

Champion Hurdle:

Everyone has a plan until you they get punched in the mouth and that's pretty much what Goshen is going to try to do to the field here. He's going to go off hard, he's going to go off fast and it's up to the jockeys behind him to figure out if he'll be stopping or not. If you look at the Triumph that he didn't win last year it's worth looking for the eventual winner of the race as they get to the top of the hill - stone last and starting to be cast adrift. But the pace of Goshen v Allmankind up front destroyed anyone up with the pace. Maybe it was that pace that lead to the mistake at the last maybe not. But it definitely was what caused Aspire Tower and Allmankind to slow to a crawl up the hill as Burning victory danced by them. The problem for Goshen is this race has a few horses with incredible cruising speeds that wont be burned off and if they can find a nice tempo regardless of his pace they will kick past him up the hill. The 2 for me that stand out are Honeysuckle and Abacadabras. Honeysuckle is pretty obvious - an unbeaten mare who won the best hurdle race of 2020 when taking on Benie Des Dieux (who would have been fav against Epatante) in the Mares hurdle last year. She's ultra consistent and stepped it up again this year with a career best the last day going on a long way out to smash up a proper G1 race. Second that day was Abacadabras who took a big step up from Christmas (when he was scoping badly) and will improve with the ground and the time. It is worth remembering that although things haven't gone to plan this year his Supreme second last year was pretty much on a par with what Epatante did when winning the Champion hurdle. Anything like the horse that turned up last year should be in the frame this year. One last thing just catching my eye as I write this is the place market. Aspire Tower was best of the rest behind Goshen in the triumph last year imo and has shown great improvement over the season beating Abacadabras first time out and then running Sharjah to 2Ls at Christmas. He's my idea of a horse for next year but with a more restrained ride this year there could be some value in the 4/1 on him to place.

2pts Honeysuckle 7/4

.5pts ew Abacadabras 10/1

.5pt place Aspire Tower 4/1

Mare's Hurdle:

A nice easy one with an old favourite to back. A filly I love nearly as much as my new fiancee who has delivered us the goods year after year. Roksana is a proper G1 horse. She spends most of her time racing in open company rather than beating up on weak mares graded races like the rest of the field. The class act on show here and an easy pick again.

2pts Roksana 3/1

National Hunt Chase:

A little disappointed not to have the hype horse of the meeting Royal Pig run here to juice the pot but an interesting race none the less both from a betting point of view and also in terms of figuring out if there is any chance of trying to oppose Monkfish on Wednesday (doubtful!). Next Destination was one of the very best before a 3yr lay off from injury and definitely retains a lot of ability coming second behind Roksana first run back and then demolishing a few small field chase after that. The betting market is suggesting this is the Next Destination of old but this doubting Thomas needs to see that to believe it after all this time. Galvin has course form and probably the most likely of the field to relish the 3m6f trip but even though he is unbeaten this season he's largely been beating the same handful of very average horses. Lord Royal is a horse that a lot of people I respect will likely tip up tomorrow but although he undoubtedly talented he's too frustrating a type to trust with your cash here. A much more interesting lurker is Escaria Ten. His second the last day behind Eklat de Rire was a top class performance where the first 2 blasted away from the very useful Pencilfulloflead and even though he never looked like getting past the winner he looked like the extra 5f would be a help rather than a hinderance.

2pts ew Escaria Ten 9/2

And now what you've all been waiting for the Handicap Kings big price winners!

 

Ultima:

Form only or more factors to weigh up?? on form only, Milan Native wont win the Ultima - a 9lb higher mark than when winning a poor Kim Muir that hasn't worked out looks harsh. Add in his form figures this year and he CANT WIN!!! But, there is so much more than meets the eye. His runs this yr are not a problem -the Wexford race he tried to live with Minella Indo & paid the price. He was 3s IR in 3m5 race & didn't stay, his PP run at Christmas wasn't too bad till 2 out blunder. Basically, we've seen this before from Sneezy Elliot - one race in the year matters. Also, Elliot could have picked from  Escaria Ten, Farclas, Run Wild Fred or Coko Beach (all 5 day entries). Id have had all of them 2nd fav at least here. So, with that, the recent wind op and the nature of his 'competitiveness' this year,  I think he  should be 2nd fav himself, ahead of the solid pair Aye Right & OFTT. Fav is correct but i cant put number on how short he should be. 

Recomm 1 pt ew Milan Native 7/1

Boodles:

Gambrose, myself and a friend spoke recently. We all agreed this race could kill a man with its complexity. We also agreed there's no way the best Elliot/Foster horse should be the price he is on trainer profile alone. Add in the form behind Thedevilscoachman last day and you have a bet that will prevent you trying to decode this impossible puzzle horse by horse!

Recomm 1 pt ew Riviere D'etel 10/1

 

All Work and no play...

Again no real time to discuss unfortunately but here's what I'll be backing:

Triumph:
Allmankind will go off hard and I don't really see him being caught by any of these. He'll have them out of their comfort zone early and will outstay them to the line.

2pts win Allmankind 5/1

Albert Bartlett:
Latest Exhibition is a great bet here. Have been looking forward to punting him all week and with the second place from Leopardstown re-opposing here he presents a great opportunity to repeat the forecast glory of 2 years ago - if you only have 1 bet this week this should be it.

3pts win Latest Exhibition 9/2
1pt e/w Cobbler's Way 14/1
1pt reverse forecast

Gold Cup:
Delta Work and progressed nicely all season and can turn around last years defeat where he got crowded at a key point on the run in before finishing well just behind Santini

2pts ew Delta Work

Foxhunter:
Caid du Berlais looks too big here for a horse that has been in solid form for over 2 years this race last year apart. Was only 3 lengths off victory 2 years ago so less concerned about last years tame effort

1.5pts ew Caid du Berlais 14/1

Patrick OConnor <poconnor34@yahoo.co.uk>	Thu, Mar 12, 9:05 PM (10 hours ago)
to me

county hurdle

if you're still reading my hcap thoughts you are either an optimistic man or hope for a hint as to where I live so you can attack me with a sack of doorknobs! alas, we go again! first selection here has the following attributes - hendo, Nico, handicap debut, huge reputation based on previous prices in g1 race, handicap debut and best of all......the hendo wind op!!!!!  RATHHILL is the nag in question. fav for the tolworth last yr but bogged down in mud so cab be forgiven. raging fav for big down royal hcap but last - something clearly amiss. cut cut snip snip and here we are. 25s for a chelt handicap where he simply has to be better than the mark he's on. would prefer if Barry rides as a sign of supreme yard confidence but at the price, happy to hope Barry is just wrong. the hipsters will be doing wind ops next if this lad wins

also want to punt SCARAMANGA at a jumbo price here. simple case - drying ground. a highly impressive win came between two poor soft ground & heavy ground runs this season. Clearly ground is key as the evidence seems to show and Nicholls has said the same himself. Timeform also agree, saying his run in the Ladbroke was full of promise till he got bogged down. Nicholls has said before how an out and out gallop should also bing more from this guy. highly progressive profile if you work off good ground form. carver a very good claim too

1.5 its ew Rathhill 25s

1 pt ew Scaramanga 50s

Grand annual

Greanenteen Lisp and Chosen Mate could all have a lot in hand. But the market has them well pegged so not much juice there. Im going to plump for cd form with small stakes. CROCO BAY won this last year having been placed twice. His run the last day was excellent and as good as his win last year on any figures. But it bumps him up another few pounds. More than likely one of the 3 top ones does him but he could drift to quite a nice ew price / place price tomorrow as he was friendless last year when winning (160 BFSP). If you can be patient, hold on till tomorrow. Will run his race as ever should run into a place

Theinval is another with excellent cd form on drying ground. Only performs in the spring and I can't let him pass in his optimum conditions for Hendo. Possibly over the hill but no evidence of that just yet and I'm willing to pay to find out

0.75 pts ew Theinval 33s

0.75 pt ew Croco Bay 33s OR  2 pts place only

Martin Pipe

Jockeys are key here. all conditionals - if you have a claim normally, you can't use it here. so you are at disadvantage against your "better" rivals who can't claim anymore, unlike you normally would every week. Jonjo, donie Mac, Kev brouder and Darragh okeefe the best so. Jonjo & doc ride front two in mkt but can they get much shorter than they are? The overnight market is a concern for my two selections but as we are seeing this week, the only real market that matters is the chaotic last 5 minutes on Betfair. the moves & money there this week is enormous and entertaining in their own right. therefore, I will plough on with willie & Charles Byrnes 'drifters'. 

GREAT WHITE SHARK was 3s for a top staying handicap at Galway & just denied. grund has come right and think last two runs were preps for this - last one in particular was much better than on paper - do Mac rides. DOCTOR DUFFY could be exposed & this could be an alternative having failed to qualify for the Pertemps. Or, Charles Byrnes could have been scheming away! Either way, he has one of the best pilots, cd form behind yesterdays unlucky coral plunge horse and Byrnes is god!

0.75 pt ew Great White Shark 40s

0.75 its ew Doctor Duffy 33s

Gone Fishing

This one will be shorter than an Arsenal title challenge.

Marsh Chase:
Quickly boils down to a choice between Mister Fisher and Faugheen in my book. Mister Fisher doesn't get the credit he deserves for his winter exploits and head rules the heart here so I just about pass on backing Faugheen who has run a couple of crackers (including smashing Samcro by 10Ls - who is shorter tomorrow).

2pts wins Mister Fisher 6/1

Ryanair Chase:
Second in a Supreme and a Champion Chase Min has had the misfortune to always run into a superstar on the big days. A Plus Tard is very good but also just short of Championship class. Seems a easy call to side with Min given the prices.

3pts win Min 11/4

Stayer's Hurdle
Summerville Boy has been coming back to the horse that turbo charged up the hill to win the Supreme a few years back. Paisley Park is a below standard champion and the rest of the field is like a legends 5-a-side team.

1.5pts e/w Summerville Boy 9/1

Mare's Novice Hurdle
The overnight plunge on Concertista makes the value everywhere. Minella Melody probably should be close to half the price she is having done everything with a minimum of fuss all winter. Given the form of Seven Barrows it's probably fine to have a saver on Floressa at bigger prices.

3pts Minella Melody 3/1
0.5pts ew Floressa

Pertemps

just like Shane long and will Griggs in days of old, Nicky Henderson is...... All his nags will shorten in coming days and I think his WELSH SAINT should have been favourite here anyway. With Nicky struggling to quench his own flames, he will now surely be fav. He won his handicap debut at Haydock in what was also his 3m debut. So he arrives here perfectly unexposed, yet proven over the trip, on undulating tracks and on the ground. The way he loomed up along side solid yard stick Silva Eclipse at Haydock suggests it could be hard to get a handle on him for the handicapper. 

Another unexposed sort at the trip is RAPPER & I think he should be a lot closer to the head of the betting. He should be judged only on his 3 mile form as he has greatly improved with the step up. He won at a non testing M Rasen 2m7 but then the acid test came over CD last time. Beat only a length by Skandiburg, his run should be upgraded for the way he stayed on the speed throughout. Skandiburg has an obvious chance and is about the price he should be. Rapper should be a lot closer to him in the market

Recommend: 1 pt ew Welsh Saint 7/1

1 pt ew Rapper 25/1

Brown Plate

Lifetime cliff horse Livelovelaugh lured me in until I saw the booking of Brian Hayes. A fine pilot but way down the pecking order in Mullins camp so today may not be the day. Small stakes alternatives here in a very hard race where many horses repose from the never ending Chelt 2m4 handicaps early in the season. Simply the betts had his form boosted hugely by Imperial Aura but the whole world knows that now. Two darts go in the direction of SNOW FALCON and MISTER WHITAKER. MW has a very good cd record & I think market is too judgemental of his pu behind Santini the last day. He's just not a 3 miler & that was a red hot race. Snow Falcon requires a look back into the history books. Eoin Walsh is the next Kevin Brouder in Ireland and his 7lb claim brings him within one pound of his Kerry national mark. He ran to that again in October so the fire still burns. Wouldn't touch him at 16s/20s but most definitely will at 40s

Recommend

0.50 pts ew Mister Whitaker 20s

0.50 pts ew Snow falcon

Kim Muir

CLOTH CAP is the bet of the week. If you framed contenders for big staying chases at the start of the season, he would have been in your top 5 after a savage run as an unexposed sort in the Scottish national. he was 16s that day and went 1.8 in running, only beat 4l. This year has seen a comeback to be ignored, a perfectly legit run at ascot and a mildly disappointing beat in a 4 runner race at Donny. However, they all smack of Jonjo fitness sessions. He's not entered for aintree so the only niggling worry is that this is a prep for ayr. I really doubt it though. There are far easier ways to prep than a cavalry charge like this. Mr R Deegan a perfectly good amateur who willie uses a lot and has plenty of experience here. This horse will undoubtedly end up way higher rated than he is today. Trying to read Jonjos mind can be a dangerous game, but surely today is the day the handbrake is released. Id have him half the price he is now so am prepared to try second guess JOnjo at prices

 

3pts ew Cloth Cap 20s

The Easy Life

More crossbars hit than Soccer Saturday but at least Ravehill at the death put a respectable gloss on things. Less to fire at tomorrow but hopefully have a few nuggets unearthed.

Ballymore Hurdle:
Very hard to see Envoi beaten here especially given what Abracadabras and Darver Star did today to frank the form. Not much of a betting race for me as the price short as it is is probably about right. Sporting John looks the most likely to beat him on merit but is priced as such and if you get 9/2 its probably fine nibbling each way for an interest. Of the rest I wouldn't be overly keen on of the Getaways and probably the one that offers a bit of value is one of Envoi's previous victims - Longhouse Poet who I made 3rd best of the bunch but is an unconsidered outsider. I have small antepost slips at 33s and 25s and I'll top up with a small forecast tomorrow and hope that Sporting John isn' quite as good as connections think.

0.5pts Envoi Allen/Longhouse Poet forecast

RSA Chase:
This is a much better betting prospect and a cracker of a race to boot. Pretty much nothing between the top 7 or so in the market on their best form and and ridiculous spread of prices that considered. Lets break this into Ire v the Brits to make things easier. Starting on the UK form lets just eliminate Copperhead form the equation straight off the bat - his Reyoldstown win was good but a very quick turnaround in a race that until recently was never the plan. Has hype horse written all over him and I ain't buying - not at twice the price. That leaves Champ and Slate House. Both have had some jumping issues - Champ probably more persistently - and both have as their best piece of form this season in giving Black Ops a 1.5L beating. One is 7/2 and the other is 14/1. Slate House wasn't given a hard time of it when things didn't go to plan in a very hot race on Festival trials day but has 3 course wins to his name to go with a couple of alphabet soup finishes and happy to risk him at 14s given his obvious talent. Looking this side of the sea Minella Indo does look marginally the best of what we have, having held the upper hand over hurdles at the end of last season against Allaho and despite not having a flawless preparation probably just deserves to be favourite over Allaho. But again we are faced with a conundrum - assume the 1pt difference between Allaho and Minella is largely fair then what do we make of Easy Game. Easy Game beat Allaho by 1.5L at Christmas and followed it up by only just going down to Faugheen at the Dublin Racing Festival. Before that he was second only to Honeysuckle in his season opener! If Faugheen had turned up here he would be around 9/2 despite it being unlikely he had any more improvement to show since Leopardstown. Easy Game is still improving and at an eye-popping 12/1 has to be backed.

2.5pts ew Easy Game 12/1
1.5 pts win Slate House 14/1

Champion Chase:
This really is my Moneyball test - do I trust my eyes or the numbers. I've agonised over this for a long time and still haven't come to a proper conclusion. Looking at these 2 horses visually (I've had the privilege to be in Cheltenham for 3 of Defi's 6 wins) and I've never seen a horse enjoy the hill as much as Defi. If you haven't put him to bed jumping the last you are beat. When he jumped the last nearly 2 lengths down from Politilogue at the November meeting I was already counting my cash knowing what was to come. On the flip side watching Chacun at Leopardstown he didn't seem to really finish out his race as well as I would hope and I started to worry about these 2 going eyeball to eyeball up the hill from right around then. The clock tells me Chacun is the better horse. Punchestown tells me Chacun is the better horse. But what about at Cheltenham. I still haven't figured it out to be honest but I found a betting strategy to let me make peace with the uncertainty and move on. When Chacun won at Leopardstown Min ran a cracker just 3.5Ls behind. If Chacun delivers what the clock says he can Min will instantly flip to favourite for the Ryanair on Thursday. So I'm going to double them up and hope for the best. Either way even without Altior this promises to be a cracker.

2pt double Chacun Pour Soi (Champion Chase)/ Min (Ryanair Chase)

Cross Country Chase:
So a race with a crowd favourite regarded by almost everyone who's ever seen a horse in the flesh as the closest thing to a certainty there is this week....so obviously we will be opposing! Tiger was incredible in this last year but he's 10 now and was a damn sight less impressive in his prep race this year than last year when Gordon brought him out for a racecourse gallop and accidently won a G3 hurdle with him. He ran in the same hurdle this year and came 5th. You don't have to look far to find something to oppose him with - Easysland has only run once this side of the channel cake-walking a course and distance race here in Dec. After that JP snapped him up as he new cross country stalwart and he seems sure to give Tiger plenty to think about if he's not at last years level. Another I know almost nothing about (which means almost no one knows anything about him) but want to back is Arlequin D'Allier. For the same connections as Diesel D'Allier but quite possibly just a little bit better they've signed up the Doc to ride and at a big price I think he will be a live contender for a place.

2pts e/w Easysland 4/1
.25pts e/w Arlequin D'Allier 40/1

Bumper:
I realised at the weekend that I've never in 20 years trying backed the winner of the bumper....I've kinda given up at this stage. I'll nibble at last years 5th Glancing Queen at 20/1 with 4 places and hope at least to not lose money on the race.

.5pts e/w The Glancing Queen 20/1

And now for the handicaps:
Coral Cup

typical chelt hc - a plethora of horses who potentially have 7-10 in hand towards the head of market. One horse who should be towards the head of the market but isnt is TOP MOON. this horse simply must have 2m4 or even further. his 2 mile form is as relevant as the length of his tail. he only has two tries at 2m4 - a cosy win from well handicapped Morosini at cork and then at navan, it was an excellent run 1 length off the equally unexposed Alfa Mix who reposes today. If anything, TM looked like he wanted further which he'll get today. Alfa was 3 x his price that day and has run very well since. TM had a spin at a completely inadequate and sharp 2m at leopardstown. The market has overreacted to Top Moon's run there. Price has been slashed since decs yesterday but still lots of juice in it

Another dart comes from the Alfa Mix form collection. He was beaten 1l by KILFENORA in their last handicap. The pair came 19 lengths clear. Disregard Kilfenora's prep run for this since then - a green n gold special! On the face of it, Kilfenora looks an exposed handicapper, but we can't be certain he's finished improving. Last three handicaps were a close 3rd in top company at the punch fez & two good wins. Throw in that he's weighted to beat Alfa Mix, was shorter than him when they met, and Simon Torrens is a perfectly capable claimer and you have a solid case. Everything has its price and he is simply too big. Wild prices on the exchange tonight that ill happily take but might even get 40s in the morning if you wait for ew in shops

Recommend: 1.5 pt ew Top Moon 20s

.75 ew Kilfenora. 33s (Probably 40s in morning)

Boodles/Fred winter/absolutely impossible handicap

Not a breeze on this - you need to know your French form too and more plots than a Love Island omnibus. Avoid it like the corona. 

Token selection would be MICK PASTOR. Top judge Simon Rowlands thought he was a bet for the triumph two weeks ago. Instead turns up here. Trained by man with best record in the race. again, absolute token selection

0.25 ew Mick Pastor 9s

Cash is King

Finally after weeks where the tracking the spread of the Corona virus like a storm front hoping that the cluster dots stay far away from the Cotswolds the green light has finally been given and the thousands of fans descending on Cheltenham are once again trusting their health to a to the tried and trusted steady diet of Guinness and bacon rolls. Anyone with an ounce of sense has by now informed their boss that for the greater good it's time to self isolate and is hiding out in a quiet corner of the local bookies hoping not to be spotted by any of the other potential patient zeros.

Unfortunately the Corona virus has substantially increased my real world workload the past couple of weeks so the blog will probably have to be briefer than previous year's editions outside of Friday (if you all make it that far). Short and sweet like an ass's gallop - as my Irish teacher used to say.

On the plus side the Handicap King is back with a few value winners so hopefully all in it's as profitable a year as ever.

Supreme Novice:
A cracking race this year where again the Irish hold (nearly) all of the aces. Asterion Forlonge is a worthy favourite putting up a great performance the last twice in Naas and Leopardstown clocking a couple of serious times against decent horses. What's even more impressive was how he performed given how negative the stable was about him going into the Leopardstown race, which to me suggests he still has improvement to come. For a long time I thought he would be my selection here but he's steadily shortened up the past 6 weeks and there's probably enough small doubts about his jumping and what he may or may not find in a slog to pass and look for a bit of value at bigger prices. If there are some small doubts about AF then Shiskin is an easy pass. He smashed up a few egg and spoon races around a couple of flat tracks and due to connections and a lack of top class UK competitors found himself at the top of the betting. It seems the stable don't believe the hype at least given the market moves recently as he drifts and Chantry House steadily shortens up. Chantry house is an exciting prospect but at the moment he is just that - a bundle of potential where we are trying to guess at his true ability by how much the Seven Barrows/JP cash move the market. He has course form a top trainer and one of the best jockeys on board so I couldn't really pick too many holes in him. He could easily start favourite tomorrow and leave us all looking stupid but at this stage having missed the bigger prices I'll pay to see it. Of all the horse in the race though the most solid and most tested is Abacadabras. The Royal Bond form is one of the best pieces of form of the season where he came off second best to Envoi Allen. A performance which came either side of giving Latest Exhibition (subsequent Grade 1 winner and future Albert Bartlett winner) a 3 length beating and winning a G1 by 8 lengths at Christmas. He was 4th in an above average bumper last year and looks a forgotten horse at 6/1.I'll be playing win only but if you are getting at least 4 places the each way play is the better option.

2pts ew Abacadabras 6/1

Arkle:
The only creature I know of that was hoping that Cheltenham was run behind closed doors for safety reasons has been favourite of this race since beating Fakir in Limerick over Christmas. They've been avoiding crowds with Notebook like she's just back from a ski trip in Italy and she nearly bolted when getting spooked at Leopardstown the last day. They will try to keep her calm with a hood in the parade ring but her temperament and her woeful performance in the Ballymore last year make her an easy pass. Joining her at the top of the market is Fakir D'oudairies and it seems like no one cares that he has gotten a 7lb age allowance in all his races this season that he won't be getting tomorrow. Seems like he has to improve a lit more than most people realise just to match the level that Notebook has set so far this season. There is however a 3rd horse in Ireland with form tied in heavily to Notebook. Cash Back ran Notebook to half a length the last day in Leopardstown which on the face of it means that he deserves to be a bit bigger than Notebook but that is to ignore that he was going to Leopardstown less than 4 weeks after a clock shattering 2m around Naas. Asking 2m chasers to put in 2 such quick efforts back to back is near impossible and so I upgraded that performance a decent bit given the circumstances. He's now coming into Cheltenham off a near perfect break and I expect to see him at his best tomorrow and is a confident pick.

3pts win Cash Back 15/2

Champion Hurdle:
One of the worst Champion Hurdles I can remember. If I had the time I could fill more pages than War and Peace explaining why most of these could never win a Champion Hurdle but for the sake of time I'll just jump straight to my 2 less than confident picks against the field. The first one is Darver Star - it's hard to back Abacadabras in the first and not back Darver here. He was a couple of lengths of Aba in that Royal Bond and then got to within half a length of Honeysuckle (who would be favourite if she lined up) in the Irish Champion hurdle. It's more solid form than most here and even though not enough for most years it might just get him across the line tomorrow. The other horse I've been toying with is Fusil Raffles. He was last years top 4 year old (ahead of Pentland Hills) in my book and the stable sent him off joint favourite with Epatante in the Christmas Hurdle where he completely bombed. If you forgive that run the close ties to the top 2 in the market makes you question why he is an unconsidered 22/1. There are some doubts over soft ground and taking a lot on trust given his Christmas performance but the price more than makes up for that.

1pts ew Darver Star 12/1
1pt ew Fusil Raffles 22/1

Mares Hurdle:
The 2 horses that would have been fav and 2nd fav for the Champion Hurdle have both somehow done an Arsenal and end up in the equivalent of Thursday night football instead of Champions League Tuesday. Benie would be fav for pretty much every race on the 4 days outside maybe the Gold Cup so hard to make a case to oppose even though Honeysuckle does fit nicely with our Aba/Darver formlines from earlier. I had hoped to pick up something closer to evens about her though and so unless there is a bit of a drift tomorrow I largely keep my bets here to a minimum but after we land the Aba/Darver double and Honeysuckle starts getting punted off the boards you could do worse than taking 4/5 about Benie if it appears. The real value here is with an old favourite. With Honeysuckle not guaranteed to like the soft going the betting w/o Benie market becomes quite interesting. Roksana is the clear 3rd best here and if anything goes wrong with Honey she should pick up the pieces. The only other real contender at the top of the betting is Stormy Ireland who has been to Cheltenham twice before. The first time she had a crashing fall at the last and then last year she gave herself ataxia from trying so hard to catch Roksana on the way up the hill. Ataxia is where you lost the ability to co-ordinate the movement of your limbs usually brought on either by exhaustion or dementia. I've had the misfortune to be afflicted by it once or twice on my way home from coppers and i can assure you it is not something conducive for winning even the simplest of races!

2pts ew Roksana (betting w/o Benie Des Dieux) 5/1

National Hunt Cup:
The standard here has improved a bit due to some tightening of the entry requirements after last years war of attrition left only 4 finishers but it still pays to side with the best of the amatuers in this marathon. I did toy with the idea of putting up every blog followers favourite crash test dummy SWC as he safe solid stye pays dividends in a race like this where there are few rewards for trying to be a hero however I am a little concerned that his slog in the mud the last day may have left its mark on him with this race coming so soon afterwards. So after eliminating the favourite for his jumping inconsistency and eliminating Forza Milan for just not really being good enough it only really left Ravenhill as a betting prospect. 5th in a Galway Plate and 2nd in a Kerry National probably means he has a bit more class to him than most of the other sluggers here so will have a small nibble on this to round out the day.

1pt Ravenhill 11/2

And now...the king is back - 

 

Northern Trust handicap:
This race is loaded as ever with a number of horses who will go on to vastly higher marks. The one who stands out immediately as a horse who will rate much higher is ESPOIR DE GUYE. Only two runs beyond two miles have produced two big wins. He is well clear on Timeform ratings and will have no problem with undulating tracks or deep ground. Plenty others appeal but have holes that I feel haven't been factored in enough. For example the favourite Imperial Aura had a very good second on paper the last day over CD, but sectionals indicate it turned into a bit of a sprint so it paid to be up with the pace like he was. I made Espoir fav here

The other dart here is Nicky Henderson's second string CHAMPAGNE MYSTERY. Lightly raced over chases like most, the angle here is possible market over reaction to his last two runs. He was lame in one and a muddling pace and numerous omitted fences mean we didn't see him showcase his quality jumping at a good clip in the other. These strengths were on show in his opening rout at Aintree and are huge pluses in a race of this nature for novices. Hendo's first string has an excellent chance too but the price has sailed.

Recommend: 2 pt win Espoir de Guye 8s

1 pt ew Champagne  MYSTERY (Watch your bets - 2 x Champagnes in this race) 25s

ULTIMA

There is possibly a wolf lurking here in sheep's clothing in the form of Vindication - he could well be a Grade 1 horse. Finishing 3l off Defi & Lost in translation is better form than beating super clean Mo Farah over 10k. So why isn't he 7/2? HIs only run left handed came in the JLT here last year and it was poor so it has people panicking more than over the corona. But that should be completely ignored. A few weeks previous he was ruled out of the festival with injury but then made a Lazarus like comeback to run. You can't pull those religious stunts in races that competitive. A wind op in the summer and one demolition job of a top handicap this year is his much superior prep this year. You won't need any rosary beads here if you back the wolf

BIG RIVER should also be backed. Placed in this last year and then a 10s shot in the Scottish national where things didn't go his way, he prepped for this with a nice win at his beloved Kelso. You will not see him until 2/3 out hopefully as he will be held up. His weakness can be his jumping which could have him out the back of your telly very soon. For example, here in November he made lovely progress to 3 out but then dismembered a fence and was finished. If he can get himself over the obstacles in a better fashion, nothing will stay on better at the end. 

Recommend:

2 pt win Vindication 7s

.75pt ew Big River 25s