The House Always wins!

 A mixed day today and despite the gut punch of Galopin coming to grief at the last we are still standing with a fighting chance heading into Gold Cup Friday. Another Cheltenham another year of it all coming down to the final day to make our great escape and come out on top for the week. After 2 years of work commitments I finally get to take the afternoon tomorrow to watch every second of the racing supping Guinness and spouting nonsense. Covid is over and the good times are back! So on to this year's last day Houdini act.

Triumph:

The market looks largely right here and the 2 at the top of the market have looked like monsters in their races so far. I do get the impression that Vauban wasn't particularly wound up when narrowly going down to the Pied Piper on their debuts. Both have improved markedly since then and on their bare form I probably wouldn't have much between them. However it seems for Vauban there has always been bigger plans for his career than anything that would happen as a Juvenile and his smooth progress this season has always been viewed as a bonus rather than a goal in itself. I would be pretty happy to say that he has the higher upper bound of the two but I guess the only question is how far is he from reaching that already. Judging by the last day he is going to take some beating tomorrow. Second and third in Pied Pipers Trials Day rout have been average at best since whereas Fil D'or is a rock solid yardstick to measure Vauban against. I think Vauban will be very hard to top tomorrow. Looking down through the rest of the field at Leopardstown that day you'll hear everyone talk about their 'dark horse' of Il Etait Temps. A horse so dark he might as well be wearing luminous striped pyjama's. Yes he shaped well the last day when never asked to really try and win the race but with every goon with a mike shouting from the rooftops about for the last month he's nearly broken the taxi driver index of overhyped outsider. His position in the market is so far removed from what he achieved that day that he is creating a few little distortions we can hopefully exploit. If you can line up a few match bets tomorrow vs either Icare Allen or Fil D'or take them. He has probably also distorted the place market and is creating a little bit of value in a bet to nothing on Fil D'or ew with 4 places.

1.5pts Vauban 15/8

0.5pts e/w Fil D'or 13/2

Albert Bartlett:

Hillcrest was impressive on the clock the last day but that doesn't really tell the full story. He also tried to bunny hop 2 or 3 of his fences and Yogi Breisner has been called in to try and get him right. A horse that I really can't trust based on the clips I've watched particularly in the hands of an average at best jockey and definitely not at these prices. Ginto's form can't really be knocked and probably should be favourite but a couple of others further down the list might have a bit more appeal. Stag Horn was rated at 108 at his peak on the flat and is 2 from 2 over hurdles including a G2. He hasn't really done enough to win a race like this yet but he definitely has the scope to improve and having gotten within about 6Ls of Stratum over 2m5f (giving 2lbs) on the flat so the distance should be no issue. Another horse at a big price that gets interesting on the softer ground is Eric Bloodaxe. He was comfortably beaten by Ginto in Navan before winning a G2 in Limerick in the traditional Christmas bottomless ground before disappointing again at Leopardstown. On the pick of his form on soft ground he could easily be the horse to grind it out on soft ground tomorrow and at 40/1 is worth a speculative punt.

0.75pts ew Stag Horn 18/1

0.5pts ew Eric Bloodaxe 40/1

Gold Cup:

I don't really have anything bad to say about Galvin but I don't have anything great to say about him either. Obviously a solid enough horse who was a good winner of a pretty hot NH Chase here last year and kept improving but he really hasn't done enough to be favourite. It seemed pretty likely the better horse lost at Leopardstown at Christmas and comfortably the best form on offer this season is A Plus Tard coming second there on the back of a 22L romp against the delusion hype horse that is  Royal Pig. Royal Pig is a  horse who has been beaten 47 and 22 lengths by A Plus Tard the last 2 times they met but somehow 'this time is different' and he is now being quoted at a single digit price in places. I've already place laid this collective insanity. Minella Indo is taking a lot on trust and the believe that he really is a different horse in Cheltenham and I'm happy to pass at around 11/2. The Protektorat price is another anomaly that is hard to explain - getting single digit quotes off beating an OAP into retirement. Three horses finished that day - Native River has since had his bus pass approved and Sam Brown came off second best in a mud wrestling contest with the Royal Pig despite getting a stone off him the next time out so not exactly rock solid form. Bizarrely the one UK runner not to be hyped out of all proportion is Chantry House. 2 years ago he was 3rd in probably the hottest Supreme in memory pre-Tuesday. Shiskin fought it out with Abracadabras that day with Chantry back in 3rd coming in just ahead of Asterion Fallover (this years Irish GC fav) with this years Arkle winner 12Ls back in 6th. He followed that up by winning the JLT last year winning a little cosily from Fusil Raffles and AF. Romped home first time out this season and was a very well backed fav of the King George (vs Minella Indo) before flopping there. His win against Santini wasn't pretty but he got the job done and with Hendo flying again this week he should hopefully be back to his stunning best.

2.5pts ew Chantry House 16/1

.5pts ew A Plus Tard 7/2

Foxhunters Chase:

A race that's fallen through the cracks for me this week. But on a first scan the horse that looks like he's being overlooked a little is Cousin Paschal. He won the Aintree Foxhunters last year and beat Bob and Co over 2m6f in heavy ground as part of his prep. hard to see how B&C is less than half of his price.

0.5pts ew Cousin Paschal

Mares Chase:

Very little between the top 2 in the market here. Mount Ida is slightly better but Elimay is prob slightly more reliable and not in danger of trying to jump to the right. Every thing else looks to be running for place money and I'm actually just happy to back whichever of these 2 is the bigger price which at the time of writing is Elimay.

1pt win Elimay 9/4

County hurdle

These big fez handicaps are fascinating betting events. Max, there is room for 2 or 3 of the field to be under 10.0 on BF at the off. So who makes the cut? State Man is obvo in, but impossible to put any mark on him. If he moon walks home all the best to him. I don't think Colonel Mustard stays in, too exposed for me for this. West Cork has shown a lot of his hand too and i think the excuses for his Ladbroke run are weak enough. The one who can go under 10.0 is I Like To Move It. Timeform (yes i know!!) have him 4lb clear on their rating plus a p, after his excellent 2nd in the BF hurdle. The winner did that form no harm in the champion hurdle so there could be lot more to come. At 12s ew, i don't see it being a bad bet. Even if he drifts to 16 on bf, your ew part is still good. He will likely be towards the front of a frenetic pace, but as the coral showed us the last two years, these burn ups don't always materialise.

In case of a burn up, best take a hold up horse too. Gua du Large will be last most of the way.....but can dink and dunk his way through to glory hopefully. Only one proper handicap run off a v hot gallop saw her steal the day. That form is working out very well indeed. Market didnt like her night before being a NR in the liffey, and same again this evening, but the only market time that matters is 5 mins before!

2pts ew I like to move it 12s

1 pt ew Gua du Large 33s

Martin Pipe

Are you a potential Grade 1 horse of the future? If not, jog on pal - this is big boy stuff. Two who are include Adamantly Chosen and Decimation. AC is obvious, willies number 1 on jockey bookings who took an enormous leap forward last time. Again, from 7s how much can he drift? Beyond 10s, i doubt it. So if not, ew part keeps you good. 

Decimation needs bit more explaining. Basically a progressive novice last yr who ran an excellent close 2nd to Ashdale Bob in his first G2. Then tbtbt next time at Punch. On what AB did since, we can argue Decimations graded days weren't over. After the Punch flop, not seen till a beautiful comeback in handicap hurdle at FH a few wks back. Travelled as well as any to 2 out & blew up - after 11 months off - thats totally fine! Mike O'Connor a perfectly able pilot here. Oh, and pick any other hurdle run of his and tell me he's not well handicapped! Juiciest prices disappearing but still happy ew at 20s

1.5 pts ew Adamantly chosen 7s

1.5 pts ew Decimation 20s

We have all the Thyme in the World

 Cheltenham - the Olympics for horses. Yesterday we had some outstanding performances on the track and today courtesy of the clerk of the course we got to witness what the horses could do in the pool before he borrowed a leaf from Winter Olympics and treated us to a slalom race where we got a winner so classy he would have excelled no matter what comedy discipline got throw at him. Who knows what new challenges the clerk will have for us tomorrow but I would guess after today's fiasco the bet of the festival next year will be for the ground to be good to firm on day 1!

Turners Chase:

A match so good they've already chased away all the opposition. Hard to believe only 4 declared here with some easy prize money available for anyone who can complete the course, however the start billing of the top 2 makes it seem certain this won't disappoint however in what is effectively a match and priced up more or less pick em I would have a clear preference. For me this is horse equivalent of Quentin Tarantino versus Woody Allen. Bob Olinger in clearly very smart but he worries too much for his own good. He's nervous and cautious and approaches each fence like a dog with a shock collar approaching the edge of his boundaries. Galopin Des Champs on the other hand - every thing he does is slick. Its quick, its sharp and extravagant. He attacks his fences like a young Moscow Flyer and makes up so much ground in the air against a pedestrian jumper like BO that even before we start comparing engine size Bob is going to have his work cut out to keep tabs as they go around. The softer ground is not ideal as it reduces the edge of fast quick extravagant jumping and tilts things back in favour of engine size as with everything happening at a slower pace its harder to make your jumping superiority count for as much. That said it still counts as something and engine size is not a particular concern as GdC has made big steps forward this year in looking every inch a Gold Cup winner in the making and his cruising speed through his races has been up there with anything Bob has shown this season. If the ground was good or better I would be on GdC at almost any price. On heavy ground he will have to the future Gold Cup winner I believe him to be to win this but as a slight dog in this 2 horse race its a no brainer who to side with.

2pts Galopin Des Champ 11/10

Ryanair Chase:

It's hard to really look past lasts years impressive winner when looking at the outright market here but also hard to know whether getting involved at 8/11 is really a worthwhile venture. The value would seem to be in the other markets betting without and to place. Shan Blue was on course to post a career best performance before falling 3 out in the Charlie Hall but before that was well beaten twice by the 2022 Gold Cup winner at last years big festivals. One spring does not a summer make though and people seem a little over eager to dismiss his long absence or even the fact that his last run was a fall despite what went before and I'm happy to swerve at these prices. Conflated benefited from a great ride by Davy the last day and isn't as good as that bare form suggests so again is not for me at these prices. Eldorado will surely be ridden to try to place as opposed to win which may work in his favour but even still I would have a preference for the remaining 2 Irish horse ahead of him. The John Durkan at the start of the season where Allaho was made to work hard to see off Janidil and Melon. Janidil and Melon have been within a couple of lengths of each other all season and likely won't be far between them again tomorrow. B365 have an outrageous 8/1 on Melon without which for a horse who has festival form figures of 2222P seems particularly generous. I'll still happily take some of the 13/2 generally available though. Janidil is about a 9/2 shot in the same market which is also worth a small play. Unfortunately the NR takes away the ew aspect of these bets but still enough edge win only to happily play both.

1pt Melon w/o fav 8/1

1pt Janidil w/o fav 9/2

 

World Hurdle:

A bit of a mess of a race but there is probably not a whole lot between the top 2 in the market based on the Leopardstown running. A bit too much has been made of the lead poached at the start that day and on his day I would have Klassical Dream at least the match of Flooring Porter. Both however have their quirks and neither looks overly appealing at the current prices. Champ is probably a horse whose day in the sun has already passed him by without him realizing it and his RSA win will likely be the highlight of a career that promised so much but ultimately was a big disappointment to all involved. Royal Kahala's price at 5/1 is more bizarre than the most obscure Monty Python sketch with people seeming latching on to the fact that she likes soft ground and dismissing the fact that she would hardly have been 5/1 if she had contested the Mares Hurdle rather than a Championship race. Outside of mares only races she won a Galmoy that completely fell apart by 1.75Ls from a horse that is 80/1 reopposing today. I hope whatever simpleton is piling into the soft ground double of Royal Kahala and Royal Pagaille at these prices hasn't got their heating money on it or they'll be hibernating in cardboard boxes until the other side of Aintree. Thyme Hill looks the real class of the field here and the season after being an unlucky 4th in the Albert Bartlett behind Monkfish he went toe to toe with a peak Paisley Park before missing Cheltenham with an injury and picking up his G1 in Aintree a few weeks later instead. Things didn't go to plan in France at the start of the season before a fine performance in the Long Walk and should improve past Champ from there. A slightly curious entry is Song for Someone who was just off top class over 2m. He ran Buzz to 3Ls over 2m4f and possibly will improve for the step up in trip here. Of those at the bottom of the tissue he is definitely the one with the scope to spring a surprise.

1.5pts ew Thyme Hill 9/2

0.5pts ew Song For Someone 40/1

Dawn Run:

The favourite here could be anything but 2/1 off 1 run in Clonmel in a race when in the past experience has been made to count seems ambitious. No less than Epatante was 6th in this when lining up on just her 3rd start. Brandy Love was favourite for a while seemingly by default despite having run like a dog chasing a butterfly the last day on the run in and looking back to her bumpers she didn't find a whole lot when challenged by Party Central and Grangee at the DRF last year. You could make a reasonable case for Grangee who fell before really getting to put down a challenge the last day but had run well in an open G1 the time before but of all the Mullins horses it really looks like there is one being massively overlooked. Statuaire is a G1 winner and granted it was a messy G1 that turned into a bit of a sprint she still had a lot of useful horses in behind that day. Given the question marks around so many of these 20/1 in a mares only race for a Royal Bond winner seems fine to me.

0.5pts ew Statuaire 22/1

Pertemps

Before we start - the ground. Yes it finished heavy. However, I'm no geography major, but I'm pretty sure when it doesn't rain & the sun comes out, things dry! two 14 degree sunny days to come at a course that dries quickly. Don't be surprised it its riding soft by tomorrows later races. 

Most of my punts are Irish nags who will go on anything so not too bothered. But if doing your own thing, don't get sucked into the Somme narrative too much

Now, racing - a great pertemps as always. I am going to be unoriginal here and follow Emmet Mullins, a man who I would follow into the fires of hell/yesterdays evenings puddles! Him & Paul Byrne smashed into Winter Fog at Leop and should have won - hit front too soon. Only his first run for the yard so any amount of potential improvement. Willie saddles no runner and Townend rides for Emmet - Willie's nephew & neighbouring yard - I'll let you do the maths!

Also adding Third Wind who ran a great race off this mark in this race 2 yrs. Stepped in with the big Stayers boys then & wasn't good enough. Mark is back down and his TFR the last day was as gd as ever. Nicest prices gone today so smaller stakes at 20s

2pts ew Winter Fog

0.5 pts ew Third Wind

Festival Plate

Of those at the top of the market - 3 nicely improving and or unexposed English ones meet a Gordo unexposed one. Ill side with Gordo as 4th fav until these markets start telling us i'm wrong. Don't be surprised if he goes off fav

Have to have a small dart at a certain rag - purely on trainer ability for big meetings. Paul Gilligan (worth a google if you've never heard of him - shifty eyes emoji!!) has a very small stable that he rebuilt after (insert google story). Yet, he has won big handicap chases at the DRF and Galway festival with target horses that basically "prep" for one day only. Also specialised in Galway festival winners before (insert....). Born by the sea is the horse. Looks exposed after his 5l beat in Kerry national but that is still excellent Irish handicap form and on that alone he should not be 66s. Handles any ground, has an excellent target trainer and is worth a small ew stake or shot on BF win market

1pt ew Grand Paradis 8s

0.5pt ew Born by the sea

Kim Muir

Lots of well handicapped sorts/ones with excellent Irish hcap form. The pick of that stuff is School Boy hours - won the red hot PP handicap chase at christmas and i will die on the hill of that race. Should be fav & is slowly but surely becoming so.

However, dive into the fires of hell/puddles with Emmet again and back Rightplacerittime again. Probably gets smashed, probably jumps like a piano again, probably a great losing bet again. Maybe they just threw him in the horse box to accompany Winter Fog......or maybe the horse they have obliterated in the market on his last two big irish handicaps gets punted off the boards again.....at 16s +, im more than happy to pay to find out. Not being ridiculous, but could go off 5s alongside school boy

2pts ew Rightplacerittime 16s

1.5 pts ew School Boy Hours 11/2

Brooks was here

 An incredible day of racing but unfortunately not an incredible day of punting (not even from a paper profit perspective). We saw 2 true superstars today and what was one of the strongest fields assembled in recent years for a Supreme was simply blown away by a monster performance from Constitution Hill. A tough start for the betting bank but no more than a minor setback in our task for besting the bookies over the week. Tomorrow is a day that a week ago I didn't hold out much hope for, but the closer we get the more excited I get. The races have set themselves up to benefit the punters and we will take full advantage of any generosity on offer.

Ballymore:

A race that really revolves around Sir Gerhard. Last years bumper winner under an opportunistic ride by Rachel and this years superstar novice before today's jaw dropping Supreme. He was the class act of the 2 day DRF I was at recently despite his jumping being poor and he simply had too big an engine for Three Stripe life to live with that day. He tackles 2m5f for the first time tomorrow though and its not sure to suit given how he finished out his race last year. He wandered like a punchdrunk boxer on the run in and held on by an ever diminishing margin. It wasn't the performance of a horse that looked to be screaming out for an extra 5f. Three Stripe Life seems to have been over-rated by connections at every possible opportunity. A horse that always seems to find one to good for him he has never been disgraced - in his 3 G1's he has been beaten by Sir Gerhard (twice) Kilcruit, Elle Est Belle and Might Potter but in truth he never looked like winning any of them and to be honest he looks to be shaping up to be a poor mans Melon. The really interesting horse in the race is Journey With Me. Unbeaten in 3 starts under rules there can be no denying that 2 of them you'd have fancied your chances in on a rocking horse. However that 1 run of note over Christmas out galloping Kilcruit and the stricken one-time Albert Bartlett favourite Minealla Crooner. He will relish the trip and you know sure he will be galloping on up the hill at the end. Maybe Sir Gerhard will have the answer when he's asked turning in but at the prices it's impossible not to side with deBromheads budding star. I am probably being a bit dismissive of Stage Star given how well the British novices ran today but hard to make a case that the Challow was close to as strong a race as the Leopardstown Maiden despite the difference in grade and i would struggle to make him the same price as JWM. The one British horse that does intrigue me is I am Maximus. He ran a great race in defeat to Hillcrest but was still awarded a very lenient handicap mark of 134 which had me putting him in the category of 'back him at what every handicap he turns up at at the festival' which had me very disappointed and confused that they decided to run him here. Purely as a means of preserving my sanity in case of him winning I will do a small e/w double with Hillcrest in the Albert Bartlett but this is not necessarily a bet i would recommend following me in on!

2.5pts ew Journey With Me 8/1

RSA Chase:

This years novice chasing equivalent of the Christy Ring Cup - we have all the chasers not really good enough to consider tackling a Bob Olinger or a GdC over what would be their preferred trip of 2m4f (yes i mean you L'Homme Presse and Beacon Edge) thrown in with a flat track bully who crumpled like losing betting slip on the turn up the hill for home last years in the Ballymore and topped off with the rodeo clown that is Ahoy Senor and his connections. The pure fact that connections until very late in the day entertained the idea of running this horse in the Gold Cup is proof enough that either the trainer hasn't got a clue what she is doing or best case scenario is indulging the wildest fantasies of her owners which would be out of place in an Enid Blyton book. The horse could barely clamber over his fences the last day when asked to jump at speed against Bravemansgame in the Kauto Star and it would be a cruelty beyond the worst of anything SJ Mahon ever did to a horse to ask him to compete in a Gold Cup cavalry charge at this point in his career. Gordon Elliot always says you enter a horse in the race you think he'll win and Ruby will always have very similar sentiments anytime the prospect of running a novice in Open company for the hell of it comes up. There's a reason they tend to win things. So having discounted out of hand all of the fancied horse at the top of the betting it leaves only a handful of real options as a betting prospect. There is a lot to be said for Capodano and Farouk D'alene. Capodano gave Bob Olinger a real race over 2m4f only giving way after the last and the step up to 3m if more on a means of taking some of the pressure off his at times questionable jumping. He should improve enough with the extra 5f that if he keeps his jumping clean he will be in the mix at the end. Farouk had todays winner Stattler all out to beat him at Naas before a cosier than advertised win over Beacon Edge back at Navan the last day. Solid form which should see him in the mix (again with the caveat of his jumping holding up). However the more you dig into the race the harder it is to get away from one of my favourite cliff horses - Fury Road. His lack of consistency is frustrating but on the pick of his form he is a class act. Beaten a neck in an Albert Bartlett by the might Monkfish he was punted into favourite for the Stayer's last year before fading badly after somehow getting himself kicked in the head by another horse. He is a superslick jumper and when the mood takes him like at Christmas at Leopardstown where he beat Run Wild Fred by 8Ls in a G1 he is a force to be reckoned with. You can also probably upgrade his chase debut after Gabynako's run in the Arkle today - maybe 2m5f was neither horses trip but there wasn't much between them that day.

2pts ew Fury Road 16/1

Champion Chase:

I wasn't going to put up a bet in this race. I was going to advise just sit back and enjoy 2 great chasers at the peak go toe to toe a racing Thrilla in Manilla. The betting is maybe a little generous to Shiskins chances but given the uncertainty surrounding Energumene's 'stone bruise' and Henderson's form today it feels like the market is not far off. I had initially wondered if the market might set up a flithy each way punt on Chacun Pour Soi which the maths nerd in me would have felt obliged to punt but then seeing a few firms get a little ahead of themselves and start quoting 4/1 on Energumene it started to feel like it really is a bet to nothing. The most likely outcome tomorrow is that Shiskin is crowned one of the all time greats and much like today racing is the big winner ...but just in case 4/1 ew really is a bet to nothing.

2pts ew Energumene 4/1

Cross Country:

Haven't been able to make heads nor tails of this race tbh. Obviously want to oppose Tiger Roll as he romps to yet another victory though 😞 I have ended up having min stakes on both Delta Work (the new Tiger Roll) and Diesel D'allier the only C&D winner outside the 12yo Tiger.

.25pts ew Delta Work 7/1

.25pts ew Diesel D'allier 16/1

Bumper:

'He looks like he's even better than we thought he was' - WPM talking about a horse he only ever talks about like he is the second coming. That is all you need to know about this race. He was of course talking about Facile Vega (son of the legendary Quevega) after he smashed up the Goffs Future stars bumper at the DRF. This should be the shortest priced favourite of the week but for some reason it isn't right now. Here is the man himself giving some advice on the race

https://www.facebook.com/racingtv/videos/willie-mullins-get-stuck-in/782505819071461/

There are plenty paying 4 place which probably makes the saver on stable mate Redemption Day also a do.

 3pts Facile Vega 2.76 (Betfair)

.5pts ew Redemption Day 13/2

 

And after all those value loser a few winning tips:

Coral Cup

A hcap with fantastic quality. Saint felicien could literally be anything. Up in trip after 2 runs and had a champion hurdle entry. Ive been using timeform the last few yrs and I've only seen 2 x handicappers with capital Ps for potential from them - SF & Goodrisk at all (see him Friday hopefully). However, market hasn't missed him at all. Two which i think the market may have undervalued are Indigo breeze and grand roi. GR was discussed yesterday. Indigo is bred for distance but only steps up in trip now for handicap debut! Her beating of deploy the getaway in a maiden has her on a nice mark before you add in potential for more up in trip. 

1.5 pts ew Indigo breeze

(From yest) 1.5 pts ew Grand roi

Grand Annual

As discussed yesterday, all in on Andy Dufresne at these prices. 7s is still palatable too if you can snag ew.

Two other small darts to add - Elixir de nutz - on my beloved timeform ratings, has rediscovered his Tolworth winning form at kempton the last day. Tizzards reaction seemed to think so too. If so, hes one of the few English ones here with an angle to be quite ahead of his mark.

Have to add a saver on Paul Nicholls' Thyme White. Gambrose unearthed comments where Nicholls says he thinks he could be a 160 horse!! Lots of trainer comms usually filed alongside G for garbage, but Nicholls is not a bullshitter and knows a 160 horse when he sees one in the last 20 yrs

3 pts ew Andy Dufresne 

0.75 ew Elixir du nutz

0.5 pt win Thyme White

 

Wild and Stormy

 Another Cheltenham, another week of mayhem. For us thankfully mayhem of the good kind - doubles and yankees and tricasts to beat the band culminating in another Gold Cup Friday spent supping pints and counting our cash (hopefully). Unfortunately though its mayhem of a different kind for some many innocent people in the Ukraine being driven from their homes or dying trying to defend them. This blog is meant to be a source of fun and banter and not a place for moral highstooling or virtue signalling so all I will say is that this year I will be donating 10% of all my Cheltenham profits to the Red Cross to help provide for the basic needs of those displaced by the war and if by some chance despite listening to me you find yourself having a few winners over the week perhaps you would consider making a small donation below to help with the crisis. Thank you in advance.

https://donate.redcross.ie/

The Supreme:

A race for the ages with at least 4 top class novices here. For me the top 4 in the market have very similar chances although perhaps Dysart Dynamo's running style may set him up for being collared on the way up the hill. Even though Paul Townend has chosen Dysart Patrick has always spoke glowingly of Kilcruit and there might not be that much between the 2 Closutton big guns. Kilcruit's price is purely down to people fitting a narrative to his season that is massively unfair. Beaten twice at odds on before winning a nothing race by a distance people try to argue that he hasn't trained on from last year. However only for the fact that the talented but quirky Largy Debut turned up to what was supposed to be an egg and spoon race in Cork the first day when he clearly wasn't fully wound up the narrative would be very different. People would be talking about how he won his debut by 24Ls, went on to be outstayed over 2m4f against 2 top class middle distance novices before dropping back to 2m and breaking the clock around Punchestown. That is closer to the truth for Kilcruit but the first narrative has prevailed for most of the season and is why you can now get 8/1 about last seasons top bumper horse. I also do think that Jonbon will be suited by how the race is run and should also be much closer to his stablemate. Jonbon has passed every test so far running in races not run to suit and will finally get to run in a race in an end to end gallop and what he has achieved while not as eye-catching as Constitution Hill is at least its equal. In this battle of the WPM vs Hendo, Ire vs Eng it really should pay to side with the underdogs.

Given we are backing Kilcruit here it would be moronic not to tag on a little double with his Christmas conquerer Journey For Me in Wednesday's Ballymore. When Kilcruit storms up the hill tomorrow the value of that form with the 1-2-3 of JFM/Minella Crooner/Kilcruit will be there for all to see and he should shorten a lot from his current 7/1

2pts ew Kilcruit 15/2

0.5pts ew Jonbon 11/2

0.5pts ew double Kilcruit/Journey For Me

Arkle:

Another race where I don't really believe the gap between a couple of WPM's horses are really as big as the market claims. It is hard to argue with Blue Lord being the shortest of the Irish challenge but it would also seem pretty clear that horse likely to improve most from the Irish Arkle will be Saint Sam. Unlucky to not have been the Fred Winter last year when subsequent G1 winner Jeff Kidder snuck in off 128 he came up the hill best of the rest despite shouldering 11st8lb. He pulled 5Ls clear of Riviere d'Etel on the run up the hill last year giving her 5lb and even though he has to give her a slightly bigger 7lb mare's allowance this year I know who I would want to be backing on if they turn in side by side. Riviere d'Etel has left nothing hidden having already clocked up 5 chase starts this season using all her allowances to great advantage over the early part of the season but Saint Sam was only having his second chase start in the Irish Arkle and despite going too fast in the early part of the race and making a couple of bad jumping mistakes was still coming back for more at the end going down by 4Ls from Blue Lord and Riviere d'Etel. People were too busy after the race debating the stewards enquiry to appreciate the great performance in behind and if Saint Sam can cut out the jumping errors and learn from Leopardstown I think he can turn around that form with the other Irish runners. Edwardstone has to be respected and is clearly the pick of the UK runners and probably does deserve to be favourite. He is a better chaser than a hurdler but he's going to need to be as he was always just short of top class over hurdles and you would question how highly rated he was at home given they spent last season losing big handicaps over hurdles rather than heading novice chasing straight away. I think the Irish will prevail once again and given their tight formlines it is probably worth a speculative forecast or tricast with the main protagonists from DRF. In fact the main danger to our selection could well be Haut En Coleur but having fallen early in the Irish Arkle and only having completed 1 chase ever I am happy to leave him for another day once her has learned the game a bit better.

3pts ew Saint Sam

0.25pt F/C Saint Sam/Riviere d'Etel

0.1pt T/C Saint Sam/Riviere d'Etel/Blue Lord

Champion Hurdle:

A race that revolves around Honeysuckle who if she is anything close to her best will win. That said it is a competitive betting without market behind her and that is where we look for a bit of value. Appreciate It was very impressive last year but hasn't been seen since but even WPM will be hard pressed to win such a competitive Championship race off no prep. Teahupoo was impressive in the Red Mills the last day but that hasn't been missed by anyone and has possibly shortened too much in both the win and w/o markets. I wouldn't put anyone off backing Epatante the forgotten horse who is still coming here off the back of winning the Christmas Hurdle and has won and been placed in this the last 2 years but the horse that catches the eye is really Adagio. He ran a great race in defeat in the Greatwood and again when tacking Goshen off a break at the start of February. He traded heavily odds on that day to beat a peak Goshen before race fitness came into play on the run to the line and that prep should have him spot on for this. In a format where 2nd is good enough this plucky loser can still deliver us the cash.

1pt ew Adagio w/o Honeysuckle 11/1

Mares Hurdle:

The mares hurdle market makes no sense to me. The market is dominated by 2 horse who have largely raced against only their own sex all season. Queens Brook seems to be priced up off the potential of a Champion bumper 3rd several years ago while people are massively over-rating the value of the Dawn Run that Tellmesomethinggirl won at last years festival. Up against them you have 2 WPM mares that have been duking it out with the best of them all season. Stormy Ireland has been better than ever since returning to Willie's yard and her win in the Relkeel was possibly a career best. Only Roksana was too good for her in this 2 years ago and I can guarantee none of the top 2 are in that class. If there is a fly in the ointment for her its her stablemate Echos In Rain. Thought of as a Champion Hurdle horse this time last year that never really panned out but getting beaten 7Ls by Honeysuckle is miles clear of anything most of these horse will ever achieve in a lesser race she can definitely make her presence felt. The longer distance might just find her out and so my main bet will be Stormy Ireland with just a saver on EIR.

2.5pts ew Stormy Ireland 5/1

0.5pts ew Echos In Rain 9/1

NH Chase:

Very straightforward here do we side with class or experience? Stattler is the class of the race and will go on to be the best of these but in this marathon race a battle hardener slugger is usually the call. Run Wild Fred is a second season novice with form over 3m5f (2nd in the Irish National) and has made steady improvement all year. Found only my old favourite Fury Road too good in a G1 over 3m at Christmas. He will relish every inch of this task and Stattler will need to dig deeper than ever to prevail. My guess is he'll be found wanting when the big questions are asked and after Run Wild Fred wins I think a lot of people might be questioning how Fury Road (an Irish G1 winner and last years stayers hurdle fav) is 16/1 in an RSA that looks a lot like a consolation race for all the English chasers not fast enough to hang onto the coat-tails of Galopin Des Champ and Bob Olinger.

1pt Run Wild Fred 7/4

1pt double Run Wild Fred/Fury Road

And now for what you've really been waiting for - the Handicap King:

2.50 - Ultima:

I'll try keep write ups short this wk. The fav Floeur could be very well handicapped but can he jump cleanly though and did the track catch him out in the Martin Pipe last yr?? I wont lay him but I wont back him as fav. Think tea clipper should be close to fav. v progressive hurdler who went close at the festivals last yr. Angle is that hes all over a chaser yet disappointed in his last two runs after excellent debut but......hello wind op my old friend! If hes a better chaser as expected & wind op is the missing piece, he has lots in hand. Small stamina query but at the price LFG. Can't not also add Ben Dundee. Two time fez chase placed horse, beat a length in what will probably be the best handicap form of the year (working out red hot so far) in paddy power. Extra places a dream here with him as he will run his race as always but some of the unexposed ones could just have too much in hand for him. Preferably Tea Clipper!

1.5 pts ew Tea Clipper

 0.75 pt ew Ben Dundee

Fred winter:

Lol at willies import making handicap debut here as top timeform rated horse, without willie improvement even factored in! If you like willie favs, get a wheelbarrow. If you dont, move on

Other handicap bets for later in the wk where I dont think prices will last:

Wedneaday2.50/coral cup:      

1.5 pts ew Grand roi 16s - last years fav met all sorts of trouble & has been primed again for this it seems. as hot a race as it gets but I'll take last yrs fav with an excuse for last yr at double the price the next yr with Gordo & Davy & his prep just as gd. If they thought he was beat fair n square they would have gone for other handicaps or chasing. why wait another yr......

4.50/grand annual:  

3 pts ew Andy Dufresne 9s - will a horse go off bigger or shorter than you back it? I don't see how this lad is a drifter. Is this horse having his first run since November at this festival as a prep for something else? No chance. Has he got incredible back class & ran his career best run last time & still has a nice mk? Yes. Is he Gordos? Yes. Gordo also has the fav but don't be surprised if they flip flop. Buddy Rich found nothing off the bridle in his last handicap off what looked a nice mark but I'd have Andy ahead of him:

Death and Taxes

 What a day! Mountains of paper profit, some great moral victories and riveting hard luck stories to tell the grankids. Truely a great day of punting. What more could you want? Well just peering into my war chest for tomorrow a few quid would be nice. The cupboards are getting bare and value doesn't pay the bills. Not for the first time we find ourselves on a Cheltenham Thursday staring down the barrel of a losing week and once again we will need a clarity of drinking to pull us through and set the ship right for tomorrow. Without the assistance of the bar man in Mulligans to put my mind straight I've retreated to the back room with a bottle of Tuscan's finest and hopefully the inspiration will flow as freely as the wine.

Triumph Hurdle:

Racing is the search for certainties. But as we all know there are only two certainties in life Death and Taxes. I've brought you death (if you remember Rezorbi) but you have not loved me for it, but now i bring you taxes which I'm sure will be a lot more popular! Most people have this as a 3 horse race and haven't even bothered to read to the end of the race card. The top 3 in the market are correct after todays move to push out Tritonic and shorten Zanahiyr and Quilixios. Zanahiyr and Quilixios both looked incredibly impressive  particularly the last time out and their order in the betting is largely a reflection of the stable opinion of the pecking order rather than a track based opinion. Tritonic while good was not the Pegasus reborn that the British hype machine made him out to be winning the Adonis the last day. People get very excited about how good Tritonic was on the flat (rated 99) and seem convince that that allied with the ability to hurdle makes him close to favourite here. I have yet to hear any of the same people who bring up this fact, as evidence that Tritonic is a sure thing, make any mention of the fact that he in fact wasn't the best of these on the flat. I don't have flat ratings for Germany but Tax for Max came 5th in a G1 in Munich finishing .5Ls behind Secret Advisor (rated 114 in the UK) which is unquestionably superior form to Tritonic's tame effort in a G3 at Newmarket. Since then he was bought by the shrewd Munir and Soude partnership and shipped off to a certain WPM. He's had one run over hurdles thrown straight in at G3 level where he pulled like a spoilt child for the first mile before finally getting down to things once the pace quickened and running on well for 2nd behind Teahupoo - the best Irish novice not to make it to Cheltenham. If he can settle which should be easier with a faster pace he could properly be in the mix come the finish as he definitely has the capacity to match the top 3 in terms of peak ability. He got 1m4f in heavy on the flat so no doubts he will stay on up the hill. You should very rarely back a 50/1 shot like its a 5/1 shot but this is the exception. I'm actually giddy with excitement for this one...although maybe that's my heavy hand with the wine pour kicking in.

2.5pts ew Tax for Max 50/1

Albert Bartlett:

There comes a point when enough people tell you that the same horse is their 'dark horse' for the meeting that you have to start to think it's not actually that dark a horse and more a mugs money pit at least value wise. That is the category I put Fakiera in. To be fair I think I did once mention him to someone as a possible dark horse for the AB back after his second to Ashdale Bob in Navan. He has since lost (again) and shortened considerably (25s to 6s). He probably does need 3m and he is undoubtedly not a bad horse but this guy has a ghetto blaster and disco lights attached. Any value is a more distant memory than a good English novice hurdler and he can't be backed at this price. Statler beat Fakiera by 2Ls the last day and prob very little between them over and extra 2f and their prices reflect that. If you asked me a week ago who I would be putting up I probably would have leaned towards Alaphillipe who has the right sort of profile for a race like this and put up a proper time the last day when smashing Mr Harp. You could downgrade that a little if you held too rigid a forml ine through Imperial Alcazar who had beaten him similarly but then flopped yesterday, although that probably was more down to IA's struggles running downhill than a reflection of his true ability. However the most crucial piece of information to come to light since then was Flooring Porter's win today in the Stayer's. Streets of Doyen was the last horse to beat FP when beating him by 5L's receiving a stone in Gowran at the start of the season. Since then FP beat the Bosses Oscar by 12Ls and won 2 G1's while  SoD had a very satisfactory win over C&D in October before being given a break and seemingly wasn't fancied on his prep run the last day. He looks the business for me and the form stacks up to make him top of the tree.

1.5pts ew Streets of Doyen 8/1

Gold Cup:

Sanity finally seems to be prevailing in the market now as we get closer to the event with the Royal Pig nearly doubling in price since being declared here instead of the NH Chase. The owner that denied us the joy of watching the awesome Vautour attempt to win a GC and sent him to the Ryanair instead, has seen fit to send a novice that started the season rated 135 to the blue riband event instead. A horse who's best piece of form  is beating an 11yo pensioner by 16Ls in the annual Haydock bog snorkling competition was until recently a single digit price for this race. Even before you consider the chasm in proven ability between him and the rest of those at the top of the market you would have thought that having a preparation akin to training for the Olympics final with a outing to the local retirement homes sports day would cause people to pause and think. I do sometimes stop to think whether my edge might be reducing over time as markets get more efficient and the syndicates money take over. Then I see something like this and I load up the money cannon and go to war again. Having laid RP a couple of weeks back I had been hoping to place lay on the day but we might just have missed the boat on that. Anyway on to the horses that actually have a chance. I guess we should start with the double Champion Al Boum Photo. In my mind he has always been a solid rather than spectacular champion - in the mould of Best Mate he races 2/3 times a year against what for the most part have been modest opposition and grinds out the wins. Hard to argue with but also hard to get excited about. He comes here at 3/1 which is fine for a pretty consistent high class (but not top class) performer. Champ has been priced on reputation rather than ability all season although Allaho did help his claims with his win today. A messy preparation and making your seasonal debut in February is in my book an irredeemable negative for a relentless galloping top class race like this. Minella Indo is hard to get excited about - only 4th in the Irish GC having fallen in the Savilles Chase she has done nothing this season to justify being any higher up the market than she is. Frodon is a favourite of mine but hard to see Bryony being able to steal this one from the front (that's Rachel's job now) and I would think that Native River turning up will not be a positive for Frodon's chances with competition for the lead a big negative. If those two do get into a mutually destructive battle up front if definitely helps the high class plodder of the race Santini. Every year he stays on into a place and likely this will be no different. The horse I really do like and have been backing for a couple of weeks is A Plus Tard. Not the most exciting of prices now after Rachel's exploits this week and Allaho winning in the Ryanair but really looks like a good thing here. Jumps well enough and has the cruising speed to be able to beat Chacun over 2m but stayed on the best of anything at Christmas to nab the Savilles chase at Leopardstown. His festival record is 13 and he should be adding another 1 to that tomorrow.

1pt win A Plus Tard 10/3

1pt place Santini 11/4

Foxhunters Chase:

I'd be lying if I said I spent more than 5 minutes looking at this race so if you want real insight on it I suggest you look elsewhere. (I believe Rhys Williams did a very good write up on it.) I did spot a couple of things in that 5 mins though. Firstly looking at the English entries its seems wrong for Latenightpass and Hazel Hill to be the same price. Latenightpass sprang a shock on his only hunter chase start the last day beating Highway Jewel and the formerly high class The Worlds End. He was giving Highway Jewel 11lbs that day. The previous day Highway Jewel was only receiving 6lbs from Hazel Hill and won by a cosy 25Ls. Happy to chance Bridget Andrews coaxing Latenightpass around and into the frame at 18's off that form. On the Irish side Stand Up and Fight has faced off against Billaway twice and the score stands at 1 a piece. No shame in losing by less than a length to Jury Duty the last day and probably should be closer both to stable mate Staker Wallace and favourite Billaway imo.

.5pts ew Latenightpass 25/1

.25pts ew Stand Up and Fight 12/1

 

Mares Chase:

Really all about the top 2 in the betting. Yes Elimay should be favourite but Colreevy really a bet to nothing each way. Beating Pencilfulloflead may be the best form on show here as Elimay was never beating Allaho the last day so the winning distance is less relevant. I got trigger happy on the exchange when Allaho crossed the line backing Elimay. I have reversed out of that like a teenager in a stolen Civic and have replaced it with a respectable play ew on Colreevy whose form was also franked by Mount Ida's win today. Shattered Love really needs softer ground to become a player and those 3 well clear of the rest of the field 

1pt ew Colreevy

 

The final word goes to the King tho

County Hurdle

I have felt like General Haig this week, leading ye to be slaughtered. However, like Haigers, follow me once more, for THIS TIME, we shall breach the enemy defences....with a kangaroo! Captain Kangaroo to you! Arguably the best handicapped horse in the race when you review the maiden hurdle behind On eagles wings (2 horses rated high 130s now & Limestone & Il Coura 1-2 the next day) and his bumper (not just Kilcruit - 1st 4 behind all rated 120 at least - Fentons one will be soon anyway). The comedy prices are gone but still happy to put him up. I was concerned Townend didnt choose him but as Gambrose said, Townend doesnt want me doing minimum weight before going for 3 gold cups. And Ruby said today that theres a number 1 at willies, but no no. 2 jockey. So all in all, Hayes is fine. Another one we need to defeat the Germans/bookies is Eclair de Beaufeu. Fell at the last in this 2 yrs ago when right in it, went on to better things as a chaser last year and has had a prep that we see from Elliot so often - only one day matters. 

1 pt ew Capt Kangaroo 

1 pt ew Eclair de Beaufeu

M Pipe

Which of the top few have most in hand? Your guess is as gd as mine. But what i do think is that Folcano & Fire Attack should be closer to the top 3 than they are. Unexposed Elliot & JOB handicap debutantes should not off go off these prices in Chelt hcaps nowadays. Folcano - a beautiful late addition thanks to a reserves absence has been boosted also by booking of Ben Jones - who won last years Hennessy.

Recomm

1 pt ew Folcano

1 pt ew Fire Attack

 

On the Hook

Enough today to keep things ticking over without ever really looking like landing one of our bigger priced pokes. Tomorrow though is probably the day I'm most excited about of the week both in terms of the racing and the punting. A couple of properly competitive Championship races that both look like they will take some winning, a novice chase that's not as one-sided as it seems and a very high standard Mares novice race that somehow is the defining moment of the 2021 Cheltenham.

Marsh's Chase:

Another Novice race another odds on Irish jolly that is surely impossible to oppose...or is it. Envoi has beaten nothing this season although to be fair you can only beat what is put in front of you but to be getting involved at a price like this I would want either a weak field or a very impressive demolition job in the build up neither of which we have. Looking through the field there are several with G1's to their name or clock shattering performances and hard to think that at least one of them won't at least give him something to think about tomorrow. Shan Blue won the Kauto Star at Christmas and his jumping has been foot perfect all season however despite that jumping he still managed to get caught late on by Sporting John the last day who only started racing a half mile from the finish. I think he just won't quite have the engine to live with some of the others on that evidence and happy to pass over here. Chatham Street Lad is intriguing. He broke the clock in a handicap at the course back in December but that performance is more of an outlier with most of his runs well below that level. A reproduction of it could give him a real chance here but not a horse I would want to trust with my cash. The other 2 contenders raced that same day in December over course and distance and even though not as eye catching it was a pretty deep race for a 3 horse race. Lieutenant Rocco was due to start as fav in Tuesday's Ultima before injury intervened and he split Chantry House and Fusil Raffles that day. Surprisingly the 3rd horse that day Chantry House is half the price of the horse that beat him which seems strange to me. Fusil has always been an incredibly talented horse who once went off joint favourite in a Christmas hurdle with Epatante and is 3/4 over fences including a course and distance win. He needs to clean up his jumping a bit but if he can he could be the big improver that will give Envoi his biggest test to date. Maybe Envoi will be good enough to overcome this but at 20/1 I'm happy enough to chance that he won't.

0.5pts Fusil Raffles 20/1 

1pt Fusil Raffles w/o Envoi 6/1

Ryanair Chase:

One of the best races of the meeting for me you could make a case for half a dozen here. Min is an old favourite but the first signs of old age are starting to creep in and I couldn't back him at 10 given that he is likely at the start of a pretty rapid decline. Allaho seems to be largely priced off last years form having been beaten out of sight in the John Durkan by Min before coming a distant 4th and Leopardstown and ended whatever GC aspirations he may have had. Melon is a horse I love who always saves his best run of the year for the festival but has a nasty habit of always finding at least 1 too good for him. Imperial Aura's win from last year was franked by Galvin in the NH Chase but I think it still leaves a little more required for this step up in class. Samcro is intriguing - 2/2 at the festival but really a horse than blows hot and cold ever since his lung infection 2 years ago. However the horse I've been sweet on for a long time in this is Fakir D'Oudairies. A very close second in last years Arkle behind today's Champion Chase winner and after not really staying 3m at Christmas put in a very respectable 2nd behind Chacan Pour Soi the last day in Leopardstown. This middle distance should prove ideal for him and he can come out on top in what promises to be a cracker.

1pt Fakir D'oudaries 13/2

Stayer's Hurdle:

Another cracker with several angles to come at it from. The first and main angle is looking at the horse that isn't here - Thyme Hill. He had 2 matchups with Paisley Park and won 1 and lost 1. Off the back of that he was more or less joint favourite before injury intervened. Go back one more race from that though and you'll see him 4th behind the Monkfish Monster at last years festival which is obviously no disgrace but looking at the horse one place ahead of him that day (Fury Road) you have to wonder  how PP can be 2s and FR is 8s. FR hasn't had everything go to plan this year. Ran very well behind Flooring Porter at Christmas when the stable was completely out of sorts and then had a very solid race at Navan the last day just pipped by Beacon Edge over a trip too short. He should be coming here ready for a season's best and definitely the value of the race if he's back in top form. The other angle I like into this race is last years Pertemps Hurdle where Sire du Berlais edged the Storyteller by half a length before The Storyteller reversed the form beating SdB by 3/4L in the Leop Christmas hurdle when finishing like a train. I think despite his age the Storyteller should not be so big in comparison to  SdB and I also think a cheeky little forecast on the 2 is well justified given their previous.

2pts Fury Rd 8/1

1pt The Storyteller 11/1

.5pts The Storyteller/Sire du Berlais RFC

Mare's Novice Hurdle:

So I've a confession to make. I backed Hook Up antepost..then I backed her again. Then I Texas hedged with some doubles and eventually threw in a cheeky treble to make things interesting. Our fate hinges on the smallest of margins sometimes and I am pot committed tomorrow and so to some extent I'm talking up my own book here. Unfortunately for me the more I look at this the better the race looks. Usually this is one of the worst races of the meeting but this year looks an exceptional standard. The 2 horse being backed tonight are the Glens of Antrim who ran Stattler to 3Ls and Tellmesomethingirl who was 3rd behind todays winner Heaven Help us at Leopardstown. In a normal year either of those pieces of form would have you clear favourite. However our girl Hook Up has run Blue Lord to a length (6Ls behind Appreciate It) the last day in Leoparstown and I still believe that is the strongest piece of form on show here. She does need to polish up her jumping but I would forgive her run behind Royal Kahala in Fairyhouse - she's raced in Fairyhouse twice now both times in bottomless ground. Both times she's been heavily odds on coming to the last and both times has just stopped in the mud on the run in. Last year it was the subsequent Triumph winner Burning Victory who nabbed her, this year it was Royal Kahala but on better ground she'll be a different beast and should overturn that form. Royal Kahala/Rosey's Hollow and Gauloise all have very close form off the last day so hopefully her improvement and the better ground will see off all of them. The more I write the more I'm convincing myself I need to go in again....oh well in for a penny

1pt Hook Up 7/1

 The handicaps got squeezed for time tonight but briefly here is what the King has done:

Pertemps:

0.5pt Champagne Platinum 11/1

0.5pt Dandy Mag 25/1

PP Plate:

0.5pt win Laskalin ~60/1 BF

0,5pt ew Oldgrangewood 25/1

Kim Muir

1pt ew Sizing at Midnight 28/1

Bob's Your Uncle

A solid enough start and our treble stays live into Thursdays Mares race so something to look forward to later in the week. Tomorrow is probably the trappiest of the 4 days with a lot of unopposable favourites where the best value is to be had trying to guess who will win best of the rest.

Ballymore Hurdle:

The one clear thing from today's Supreme is where the balance of power lies between Ireland and Britain when it comes to novice hurdlers. The British were beaten out of sight and again are taking up too much of the market in tomorrow's race. My response when asked about Bravemansgame a few days ago was rather flippantly to say 'sure he's only up there in the betting to give the English mugs something to bet on'  which although harsh is likely true. There is a certain amount of geography that goes into making a book for the novice races at Cheltenham and no book is complete without at least one representative from each side of the sea regardless of the imbalance in either direction. Bravemansgame may quite possibly be the pick of the English novice hurdles but winning that tallest dwarf competition won't help him against what is possibly the best of the Irish novices. Bob Olinger got closer to the ill fated Ferny Hollow on his hurdling debut than Appreciate It managed in last years Champion Bumper. Since then he's followed up with 2 routine wins including strolling away from Blue Lord in a G1 the last day. He sets a very high standard here and should have the measure of Gaillard du Mesnil who likely will fill the runners up spot behind him.

2pts win Bob Olinger 6/4

2pts place Gaillard du Mesnil 1.88

Brown Advisory Chase:

I think Monkfish is already a shorter price to win next years Gold Cup than any of the other horse here are to win this race. He looked a monster the last day and is unopposable here. In terms of value here even the betting without is largely priced correctly with the step up in trip likely to help Sporting John but Eklat du Rire looked like a horse for the future the last day and given how close Escaria Ten finished in the NH Chase today despite his jumping going to pieces suggests that Eklat might just shade it for best of the rest.

.5pts Eklat du Rire w/o Monkfish 5/2

Champion Chase:

A very weak renewal with Chacun Pour Soi the standout talent here. Anything close to evens is almost certainly value. Since joining Willie Mullins he's won 5 of his 6 races comfortably and the only horse to beat him was future Gold Cup winner A Plus Tard who caught him cold the Christmas before last. The field in behind is for the most part a collection of British has been's and journeymen. Politilogue was a below average Champion Chase winner to begin with and is now in decline, Nube Negra seems to be rated as if it was Altior in his prime that he beat at Christmas rather than an aging giant. First Flow is an honest horse who made the most of an enterprising ride the last day to beat Politilogue but in reality is a G2 horse at best. most baffling of all though is that I can guarantee that before the off tomorrow at least one person will tip up Rouge Vif as the value bet to you with no justification. Despite repeatedly being well beaten by half of the horse in the field. In normal time I would suggest befriending these poor lost souls and possibly buying them a pint with a view to encouraging them to bet against you on any other baseless premonitions they may have. Unfortunately in times of COVID that's not really possible so perhaps its kindest to just smile and nod and move quickly away before they start explaining how COVID is a fraud perpetuated by Bill Gates to cull all the poor people in the world. There are however two proper G1 horses buried in the field both in their prime and both should be back without the favourite. Put The Kettle On should be a fairly obvious pick. Last years Arkle winner (20Ls ahead of Rouge Vif) and 3/3 at the course. She is a gutsy mare and will relish the hill. She also is the one horse that is there is any chink in CpS's armour she will expose it. The other is really the forgotten horse of the race. Last years Arkle favourite Notebook. He sweated up badly before the race last year but is apparently enjoying her racing more this year without the crowds. He got within 7L of CpS at Christmas (1.75Ls ahead of PTKO) which is likely a lot closer than any of these will tomorrow. Priced up as a no hoper I expect a big race tomorrow in a silent Cotswolds.

2.5pts ew Notebook w/o CpS 18/1

1.5pts Put The Kettle On w/o CpS 7/2

X Country Chase:

Just the one French raider this year - last years winner Easysland. Probably wins this again with the main competition in the market an aging Tiger Roll. Possibly we get the fairytale ending for Tiger and he gets to retire a champion at one of his favourite stomping grounds. More likely he'll prove himself not to be the force of old and go out with a whimper without even an appreciative crowd to give him a send off when he does trot in.  Scanning down through the entries the only one of any real interest is former NH Chase winner Le Breuil. He has his sights set on Aintree but this has been a great stepping stone in that direction as Tiger can attest. At 18/1 he is worth a nibble each way.

0.5pts ew Le Breuil 18/1

Bumper:

Not one I've put a lot of thought into and Sir Gerhard moving to Willie's yard means the market really should have a very clear opinion tomorrow how this should be priced. For myself I had to have a little nibble on Sir Gerhard based purely on human behaviour. People overweight the most recent thing they've seen or heard and so Sir Gerhard not going to the DRF while Kilcruit did means Kilcruit is fresher in peoples memory. Throw in the fact that Kilcruit ran a very deceiving race that day where your eyes and the clock tell two different stories (see Simon Rowlands Sectional Spotlight for more) means its inevitable that people will over-react in how short they make Kilcruit.

1pt Sir Gerhard 2/1

 

And now for the handicaps:

Coral Cup:

One from the front, and one from the back please Carol! The task here as always is to find the lurkers with lots in hand and hope they end up on the right end pace wise. I'm hoping Sneaky Getaway returns to the front end instead of the disastrous hold up effort at Christmas which timeform argued hindered his jumping. Sneaky Emmet is as respected a trainer as his uncle in these big handicaps and i think he goes off a lot shorter - you would not even be surprised were he to be single figures the way this yard operates.  Dysart Diamond will be stone last to try get the trip & need luck as he weaves through, but again, hes very lightly raced for Emmet's uncle and there no proof we've seen the bottom of him yet. Cross off the last day - fallers in front ended his race when starting to weave through. Townend is on Koshari instead but I'd have Dysart closer to him than market does now. For market watchers, if Palmers Hill starts to shorten significantly, join the party. he is very well handicapped if on song

1.5 pts ew Sneaky Getaway 16s

0.75 pts ew Dysart Diamond 25s

Grand annual

My biggest handicap bet of the week will be Not That Fuisse. Long story short, I think there's a vg chance his best trip will be this well run 2m & we haven't got to see him try it yet. Backed him last year & didnt get in. Is 7lb higher now but on the plus side, his novice chase behind Southfield Royale (fav in big Kempton hc lately on beloved gd gd) & Coole Cody (pp winner) is vg. also, hes had the wind op lately for the in form Skelton yd. on his Exeter run, he wouldn't go close but tried cheekpieces that day & discarded them immediately. At the price, q mks obvo exist, but i think hes about a 14s shot. The 3 of us have been watching Embittered's campaign this year with a smirk like many people. Placed off this mark in last years county, this has clearly been the aim all year. Timeform has repeatedly stated he is a chaser so theres an angle for better than last year. well found in the market, but could actually end up way shorter like Chosen Mate did last year

2 pts ew Not That Fuisse 18s

2 pt win Embittered 11/2