The title just about sums it up. A 15.9pt loss on the day leaving us -2.39 points in total. Only found one interesting bet on tonights games unfortunately but hopefully it should get us back above sea level:
2pts Sevilla @2.34 (betfair): I had the misfortune of seeing the first game between these 2 teams where UU set about kicking Sevilla as their only gameplan. OK they have amassed 5pts to date but draws at home against Rangers and Stuttgart and a win against a Rangers team set on helping them in any way possible including scoring 2 goals for them doesn't look as impressive as their position in the table suggests and I wouldn't even have them as a certainty for UEFA cup football yet.
Tuesday, 24 November 2009
Wednesday, 4 November 2009
OK so the running profit to date is 13.51pts not bad considering that I haven't had a chance to update as regularly as I would like. This week all our punting takes 2nd place to Ireland's attempts to get to South Africa. There are a few interesting bets which may help us drown our sorrows if we fail:
2pts Draw @ 4.4 Betfair (Ireland v France): Usually my write up on the second leg of a 2 leg match would go on about how these games always have more goals and hence less goals than your average game. However everything has a price that I start to get interested in it at. Suggesting that this game has a less than 23% of ending in a draw is a slight over-reaction. I know the last 10-15 mins of this game will likely be ridiculously gung-ho and open but even still we don't score many goals and the French don't need to get too ambitous in the early stages. Also if Ireland were to get an early goal it would put the pressure back on the French to search for an equaliser and they have the players to hurt any defence when they stop fighting each other and put their minds to playing football. If we do manage to win I'm sure no one will mond losing their cash on this one!
Buy total goals 2 pt per goal @ 12.7 Sporting Index (this is the total on the 5 WC Qualifiers inc Uruguay v Costa Rica): As i said above second legs always have a higher average number of goals mainly due to a frantic last 20 mins this combines all the games and reduces the spread for us. Get stuck in.
0.5pts Richard Dunne to score first 33/1 (Ladbrokes): We are going to persist with this as Ireland are most dangerous when they get a set piece and he is one of our key target men. If we do get the breakthrough he could be the one to do it for us.
2pts Draw @ 4.4 Betfair (Ireland v France): Usually my write up on the second leg of a 2 leg match would go on about how these games always have more goals and hence less goals than your average game. However everything has a price that I start to get interested in it at. Suggesting that this game has a less than 23% of ending in a draw is a slight over-reaction. I know the last 10-15 mins of this game will likely be ridiculously gung-ho and open but even still we don't score many goals and the French don't need to get too ambitous in the early stages. Also if Ireland were to get an early goal it would put the pressure back on the French to search for an equaliser and they have the players to hurt any defence when they stop fighting each other and put their minds to playing football. If we do manage to win I'm sure no one will mond losing their cash on this one!
Buy total goals 2 pt per goal @ 12.7 Sporting Index (this is the total on the 5 WC Qualifiers inc Uruguay v Costa Rica): As i said above second legs always have a higher average number of goals mainly due to a frantic last 20 mins this combines all the games and reduces the spread for us. Get stuck in.
0.5pts Richard Dunne to score first 33/1 (Ladbrokes): We are going to persist with this as Ireland are most dangerous when they get a set piece and he is one of our key target men. If we do get the breakthrough he could be the one to do it for us.
Saturday, 24 October 2009
Ok things have been a bit hectic lately so haven't had a chance to keep this updated but should have a bit of time next week as I prepare for an all out assault on the Melbourne Cup to tidy things up and get a few new articles up.
Some interesting bets on this weeks football though first:
Sunderland 2pts @2.7 (Betfair): People seem to continue to underestimate the improvement Sunderland have made this season. They are not a popular team and keep getting overlooked which suits us down to the ground. Keep pounding the bookies on this one until they wise up.
Liverpool 1.5pts @3.1(Betfair): There is no team in the world Liverpool should be this price against at Anfield. Yes Liverpool have injury worries yes they are on a bad run but people have over-reacted to that. Throw in the fact that Rooney is a doubtful starter for United and this looks cracking value.
First half to be the highest scoring half Barcelona game 2pts @ 11/5 (totesport): Another bet that I'vew flagged up before and continues to be overpriced.
Finally we have proper racing back with us and if you have time to sift through the card at Aintree there will be the usual fantastic value at a real horses for courses track. Unfortunately I don't so I just checked out the big race.
Tidal Bay 1.5pts @ 3/1 (Paddy Power): Track suited to his style of running and has previous form here. Was below par last season but if anywhere near the form of the previous season he should take this down.
Reve de Sivola 2pts @ 6/4 (Paddy Power): This horse will quite possibly drift during the day as the mugs money comes for the Ruby/Nicholls combo so the guaranteed price with PP looks like a good option. This horse was just off the very best last season. Ruby's horse could be anything but I'll pay to see him beat this lad on his first trip over hurdles.
Some interesting bets on this weeks football though first:
Sunderland 2pts @2.7 (Betfair): People seem to continue to underestimate the improvement Sunderland have made this season. They are not a popular team and keep getting overlooked which suits us down to the ground. Keep pounding the bookies on this one until they wise up.
Liverpool 1.5pts @3.1(Betfair): There is no team in the world Liverpool should be this price against at Anfield. Yes Liverpool have injury worries yes they are on a bad run but people have over-reacted to that. Throw in the fact that Rooney is a doubtful starter for United and this looks cracking value.
First half to be the highest scoring half Barcelona game 2pts @ 11/5 (totesport): Another bet that I'vew flagged up before and continues to be overpriced.
Finally we have proper racing back with us and if you have time to sift through the card at Aintree there will be the usual fantastic value at a real horses for courses track. Unfortunately I don't so I just checked out the big race.
Tidal Bay 1.5pts @ 3/1 (Paddy Power): Track suited to his style of running and has previous form here. Was below par last season but if anywhere near the form of the previous season he should take this down.
Reve de Sivola 2pts @ 6/4 (Paddy Power): This horse will quite possibly drift during the day as the mugs money comes for the Ruby/Nicholls combo so the guaranteed price with PP looks like a good option. This horse was just off the very best last season. Ruby's horse could be anything but I'll pay to see him beat this lad on his first trip over hurdles.
Friday, 9 October 2009
Believe in the Honey Monster
Ok. Just a quick update - a bit tight on time at the mo, but we are back in healthy profit after a nice 11pt+ profit last weekend.
2pts Russia (v. Germany) Ladbrokes 6/4: Top of the table clash that will decide who gets to avoid the playoffs. A must win game for Russia while a draw should be enough for Germany. Therefore I would be expecting an open game particularly towards the end. Was originally going to advise a lay of the draw but I think there is slightly more value in trusting in the genius of Hiddink to shine through again and Russia to get the result they need in the intimidating atmosphere in Moscow.
2pts Bellamy to score at anytime Expekt.com 39/10: I opened an account just to have this bet! I think Finland have kept one clean sheet in their last 10 games and although Wales are a pretty poor team a player of Bellamy's class should be looking forward to a fruitful day even if Wales have their own problems at the back.
0.5pts Richard Dunne to score first 33/1: The Italians will be quite happy to sit deep and not take any chances which is reflected in the 15/8 quotes about the draw. With that being the case Irelands best chance of breaking down the Italian resistance may be from a set piece with Dunne being our key man for corners and free kicks. He already netted twice in this campaign with both goals coming in our tough games against Bulgaria. Hopefully he can deliver again (and not just for the sake of our bank balance). If so he can pay for the plane to South Africa!
Wow nearly missed a good one - a good example of people over-reacting to a team needing to win a game is the price on Portugal to win tonight. They have struggled to score all campaign and are 1.16 to beat Hungary tonight. I think they probably will get their 3 pts but I would put anyone off laying that. The bet I will advise though is:
2pts Hungary +2 on the Asian Handicap @1.86 (Betfair) - they have lost the 3 games they have played against the groups 3 heavyweights by a single goal and there is no reason to believe they are going to Lisbbon to lie down. Just have to hope that the 2nd best player in the world doesn't have one of his nights!
2pts Russia (v. Germany) Ladbrokes 6/4: Top of the table clash that will decide who gets to avoid the playoffs. A must win game for Russia while a draw should be enough for Germany. Therefore I would be expecting an open game particularly towards the end. Was originally going to advise a lay of the draw but I think there is slightly more value in trusting in the genius of Hiddink to shine through again and Russia to get the result they need in the intimidating atmosphere in Moscow.
2pts Bellamy to score at anytime Expekt.com 39/10: I opened an account just to have this bet! I think Finland have kept one clean sheet in their last 10 games and although Wales are a pretty poor team a player of Bellamy's class should be looking forward to a fruitful day even if Wales have their own problems at the back.
0.5pts Richard Dunne to score first 33/1: The Italians will be quite happy to sit deep and not take any chances which is reflected in the 15/8 quotes about the draw. With that being the case Irelands best chance of breaking down the Italian resistance may be from a set piece with Dunne being our key man for corners and free kicks. He already netted twice in this campaign with both goals coming in our tough games against Bulgaria. Hopefully he can deliver again (and not just for the sake of our bank balance). If so he can pay for the plane to South Africa!
Wow nearly missed a good one - a good example of people over-reacting to a team needing to win a game is the price on Portugal to win tonight. They have struggled to score all campaign and are 1.16 to beat Hungary tonight. I think they probably will get their 3 pts but I would put anyone off laying that. The bet I will advise though is:
2pts Hungary +2 on the Asian Handicap @1.86 (Betfair) - they have lost the 3 games they have played against the groups 3 heavyweights by a single goal and there is no reason to believe they are going to Lisbbon to lie down. Just have to hope that the 2nd best player in the world doesn't have one of his nights!
Saturday, 3 October 2009
Lets Play Darts!
OK so the last set of bets clawed back 0.66 pts of our deficit to leave us 1.99pts down. There’s a lot on this weekend and I’m probably not going to get a chance to cover everything but there are definitely some good bets about. I’m going to start this weekend’s preview in the graveyard of talent that is the SPL as we have the first Old Firm clash of the season on Sunday.
2pts Rangers @8/5 (Ladbrokes): Hovering around the 6/4 mark on the exchanges this is easily big enough to make a play on the home team when there is little to choose between the 2 sides in what will as always be an electric atmosphere.
1pt Boyd to be first goal scorer @ 6/1(Boyles): Boyles cash back special this weekend is money back on the first, last and anytime goal scorer markets if there is someone sent off in this game. Usually this is not enough to overcome the margin on these sorts of markets but in a game where there is about a 30% chance of a red card you could nearly pick any man on the pitch and play this market. The reason for putting Boyd up is a combination of the favourite long shot bias effect (generally bookies have less of an edge on shorter price events than on longer odds events – punters effectively pay a premium for higher variance for some perverse reason!)and also to help reduce variance.
2pts 1st half to be the highest scoring half Almeria v Barcelona @ 11/5 (Boyles): I have to admit I’m stealing this tip from Mike Holden’s excellent blog on sportinglife.com which is always worth a read before you get stuck into your weekend football betting. Barca start fast and can wind down in the second half when the game is in the bag. Don’t expect Almeria’s resistance to last very long in this one.
3pts Phil Taylor to win the Darts Grand Prix @ 4/6(Boyles): The unusual format of this event can lead to some shock results in the first couple of rounds however Taylor is a prolific winner of this event (as with most darts events) and as reigning champ 4/6 seems a fair price. The offer of our money back on a loser if anyone should hit a 9 darter during the course of the event makes this worth our while.
1.5pts Wade to win the Darts Grand Prix w/o Taylor 10/3 (Boyles): I have been struggling to find the seeding for this event but on the reasonable assumption that he won’t meet Taylor before the final all going well I’m happy to take a chance on him making the final 2. Deserving of being favourite in this market and this also has the advantage of money back on a loser if we get a 9 darter.
Lay to lose 1pt Man Utd 1.22 (Betfair): You don’t hear of many people getting rich opposing the devils at Old Trafford but there is always a first. The 1/5 the bookies have chalked up seems a little too dismissive of the pretty solid looking Sunderland we’ve seen so far this season. Yeah this is probably money down the drain but at this price I can’t resist opposing a Man Utd side that I am not yet convinced by.
There is a great weekend of racing on in Longchamp this weekend and although I unfortunately haven’t had much of a chance to look over the form yet, but even if you don’t have a bet make sure to see the superstar that is Sea the Stars if you can. The one thing I would advise to look out for is crazy prices on Yeats in his race versus Kasbah Bliss. Expect a bit of French xenophobia with KB being over bet hopefully leaving us plenty of value with Yeats. If I get a chance I’ll post a proper racing preview but the imminent prospect of jumping into a dark underground river for some black water rafting makes it a pretty long shot. Gamble safely!
2pts Rangers @8/5 (Ladbrokes): Hovering around the 6/4 mark on the exchanges this is easily big enough to make a play on the home team when there is little to choose between the 2 sides in what will as always be an electric atmosphere.
1pt Boyd to be first goal scorer @ 6/1(Boyles): Boyles cash back special this weekend is money back on the first, last and anytime goal scorer markets if there is someone sent off in this game. Usually this is not enough to overcome the margin on these sorts of markets but in a game where there is about a 30% chance of a red card you could nearly pick any man on the pitch and play this market. The reason for putting Boyd up is a combination of the favourite long shot bias effect (generally bookies have less of an edge on shorter price events than on longer odds events – punters effectively pay a premium for higher variance for some perverse reason!)and also to help reduce variance.
2pts 1st half to be the highest scoring half Almeria v Barcelona @ 11/5 (Boyles): I have to admit I’m stealing this tip from Mike Holden’s excellent blog on sportinglife.com which is always worth a read before you get stuck into your weekend football betting. Barca start fast and can wind down in the second half when the game is in the bag. Don’t expect Almeria’s resistance to last very long in this one.
3pts Phil Taylor to win the Darts Grand Prix @ 4/6(Boyles): The unusual format of this event can lead to some shock results in the first couple of rounds however Taylor is a prolific winner of this event (as with most darts events) and as reigning champ 4/6 seems a fair price. The offer of our money back on a loser if anyone should hit a 9 darter during the course of the event makes this worth our while.
1.5pts Wade to win the Darts Grand Prix w/o Taylor 10/3 (Boyles): I have been struggling to find the seeding for this event but on the reasonable assumption that he won’t meet Taylor before the final all going well I’m happy to take a chance on him making the final 2. Deserving of being favourite in this market and this also has the advantage of money back on a loser if we get a 9 darter.
Lay to lose 1pt Man Utd 1.22 (Betfair): You don’t hear of many people getting rich opposing the devils at Old Trafford but there is always a first. The 1/5 the bookies have chalked up seems a little too dismissive of the pretty solid looking Sunderland we’ve seen so far this season. Yeah this is probably money down the drain but at this price I can’t resist opposing a Man Utd side that I am not yet convinced by.
There is a great weekend of racing on in Longchamp this weekend and although I unfortunately haven’t had much of a chance to look over the form yet, but even if you don’t have a bet make sure to see the superstar that is Sea the Stars if you can. The one thing I would advise to look out for is crazy prices on Yeats in his race versus Kasbah Bliss. Expect a bit of French xenophobia with KB being over bet hopefully leaving us plenty of value with Yeats. If I get a chance I’ll post a proper racing preview but the imminent prospect of jumping into a dark underground river for some black water rafting makes it a pretty long shot. Gamble safely!
Thursday, 24 September 2009
Weekend first thoughts
OK a disaster on the Europa league last week has pushed us into the unusually territory of being loss making with a loss of -2.65pts to date. Due to moving continent I missed out on a few previews but to be honest the Carling Cup is one of my least favorite competitions for betting on so the conclusion would probably have been no bet anyway.
On to this weekend.
Rip Van Winkle 2pts(QEII) 5/6 Paddy Power: I haven't really had the opportunity to see much in the way of flat racing this season, but one of my stars of last season was Rip Van Winkle and I always had him pegged as a classic winner this year. A niggling foot injury for the first have of the season and the emergence of a superstar in the form of Sea the Stars has confined him to a solitary group win this season. However he does seem to be improving now that his injury is behind him and I expect that he should have enough to account for Delegator. I'm nearly tempted to put up an O'Brien 1-2 with Mastercraftsman edging out Delegator for 2nd. But I'll settle for 2pts win with Rip
Aston Villa 1pt (v Blackburn) 7/5 Paddy Power: Villa seem to be getting their act together now with 6 wins on the trot in all competitions. They are not the team they were last season but play with the right mentality under O'Neill and should be good enough to extend their run against a pretty average Blackburn team.
Thursday, 17 September 2009
Europa League
Another 1.3pts profit from last night brings us to +1.8pts to date with 3 points still in play. Tonight it´s the UEFA cup and I think I´ve managed to dig out a little value on this too.
1 pt Valencia to win the Europa League 16/1 (Boylesports): They have managed to hang onto David Villa and David Silva and if they put their focus on this competition in the latter stages I would not want to be opposing them against the most definitely second tier teams of Europe.
0.75pts Sparta Prague clean sheet 5/2 (Paddy Power): Not the most exciting team to watch with 9 goals in their 7 league games to date. However all 4 home games have been clean sheets. Also a 3-1 home win vs Pananthanicos in the CL qualifying shows they are no mugs. Up against a PSV team that has gradually declined since Hiddink left. Tempted just to lay PSV but this could turn into a great game for anyone suffering from insomnia.
Sell bookings on Ath Bilbao v Aus Vienna @44 2 pts per card: Seems to be Bloms first ever UEFA game and usually referees like to ease themselves into the big leagues. Don´t expect him to want to grab the headlines.
Sell bookings on Everton v AEK @ 36 1 pt per card: Another inexperienced ref who´ll want to quietly move up through the ranks.
1 pt Valencia to win the Europa League 16/1 (Boylesports): They have managed to hang onto David Villa and David Silva and if they put their focus on this competition in the latter stages I would not want to be opposing them against the most definitely second tier teams of Europe.
0.75pts Sparta Prague clean sheet 5/2 (Paddy Power): Not the most exciting team to watch with 9 goals in their 7 league games to date. However all 4 home games have been clean sheets. Also a 3-1 home win vs Pananthanicos in the CL qualifying shows they are no mugs. Up against a PSV team that has gradually declined since Hiddink left. Tempted just to lay PSV but this could turn into a great game for anyone suffering from insomnia.
Sell bookings on Ath Bilbao v Aus Vienna @44 2 pts per card: Seems to be Bloms first ever UEFA game and usually referees like to ease themselves into the big leagues. Don´t expect him to want to grab the headlines.
Sell bookings on Everton v AEK @ 36 1 pt per card: Another inexperienced ref who´ll want to quietly move up through the ranks.
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