Champion Hurdle

OK a solid week has pushed our profits back up to +28.46pts. Now time to turn our thoughts to the Champion Hurdle which is a more tricky poser than I first thought. I have already advised 2pts Solwhit @ 6/1 and 1pt @ 7/1 and although in terms of the current market they look like nice bets I'm not too confident of actually collecting on them.

It's hard to knock a horse who has won 5 G1 in his last 6 starts but apart from a head defeat of Punjabi in Punchestown last May you would have to wonder just how strong the races he has won are. The horses filling second being Donna's Palm, Sublimity and Muirhead. Of these only Sublimity could be considered CH material and I think he is a few pounds off that level now. He hasn't actually ever run a race worthy of winning a CH. Now maybe when the questions are asked he will have the answers but it is worth remembering that when he did face the big boys in Newcastle he was brushed aside quite comfortably by Go Native.

Go Native is the horse who should be favourite for this race. An above average Supreme winner last year he has nailed all his big targets this year after losing on his debut. Carberry can be relied on not to get him to the front too soon to avoid the idling problems he encounter here last year and at Kempton over Christmas. The stats are against him but he really does look a classy horse.

Zaynar has been running over 2 1/2m for most of the season and hasn't done anything special to deserve his elevated place in the market - ignore.

Medermit is well held by Khyber Kim on his last 2 runs at Cheltenham and hasn't improved to the same extent as Go Native has from when he got within 1/2L last year.

Khyber Kim beat Celestial Halo at Cheltenham in December which has to be respected however on the better ground that we would expect at the festival I think he will get done for pace and find a few better than him. V. interesting if it was to turn up soft though.

Punjabi is the reigning champion and showed he was in good health with an easy win at the weekend. He always seems to come good in the spring on better ground and also has a 3rd to his name when beaten by Katchit in this race 2 years ago. At 10/1 I would much rather back this horse e/w than some of the horses ahead of him in the betting.

Celestial Halo was just touched off in this race last year but the fact that Nicholls already has him schooling over fences say s it all about where he believes this horses future lies.

If I had to call the tricast I would go:
1. Go Native
2. Punjabi
3. Solwhit

So as regards betting wise I actaully think the best bet available is
2pts Go Native to be favourite @ 6/4 (888sport)- is already slight favourite on betfair and I think once people start to properly examine the form he will overtake Solwhit with the bookies a sfavourite too.

Related to the above as I expect GN to shorten and Solwhit to lenghten (also as we already have a significant interest in Solwhit from our previous bets).
1.5pts Go Native @ 9/2 (Will Hill, VC)
1.5 pts Lay Solwhit @ 5.7 (betfair) - only if you already have him backed
0.5pts e/w Punjabi @ 10/1 (Lads, WH, 888)

There will be blood

OK so it's Old Firm time again so once again we can expect 90 mins of tackling of the sort that would make Shawcross look like an over-eager cheerleader. Fortunately some of the bookies seem to underestimate just how much these players like to kick each other. But firstly Rangers are at home, they are seven points clear with a game in hand and yet they go into the game at 11/8? They should be closer to the 11/10 mark so get stuck in, also quite likely to benefit from a numerical advantage by the end of the game to give their chances an added boost.

2pts Rangers @ 11/8 (Will Hill)

2pts more than 6 cards @ 7/5 (Will Hill): This would have collected in 6 of the last 10 league Old Firms to the best of my knowledge and seems reasonable it could cash again today.

2pts on the first booking to happen before the 25th min @ 5/6 (888sport): expect a fiery start with the referee eager to assert his authority early on.

1pt Tottenham @11/10 (888sport): 8pts clear of Everton and in scoring form, this looks a little too big. Should probably be just about odds-on.

1.5pts Fulham @ 4.0 (Betfair): Even despite their horrendous away record and the fact they travelled back from the Ukraine on Friday I can't pass up this price on a team that are 11pts clear of their opposition - a team that appear to be falling apart after a promising start to the season.

Saturday bits and bobs

2pts Soldatino @13/8 (Boyles): Over-priced just because he is French in my opinion. Should be favourite here aginst what looks like fairly limited opposition.

1pt Ireland @ 2.05 (888sport): Seems an over-reaction to last weeks hiding in Paris. We are by far the better team and can overcome the Twickenham atmosphere.

2pts Italy @ 2/1 (Skybet): Not much between these teams and with home advantage this looks a crazy quote on a team that arev very hard to break down.

1pt Birmingham @19/20 (Will Hill): Birmingham are 12 pts clear going into this tie and the prices do not reflect their superiority this season.

2pts 1st half highest scoring half Barca v Malaga @11/5 (totesport): Usual reaons.

1pt e/w Messi to score first @ 3/1 (Paddypower): Basically playing for the evns we get on him scoring anytime.

1pt e/w Ronaldo to score first @ 3/1 (Paddypower): As above.

Europa part 2

Just as draws happen more often in the first leg they happen less often in the second legs. The home record of teams in the second leg of these ties is phenomenal at somewhere around 50% if i remember correctly. So....

1.5pts Juve win against Ajax @4/5 (Stan James) - a far superior team with home advantage, should be able to secure the tie early and shut up shop Italian style after the break.

1pt Sporting Lisbon @2.7 (Betfair) - Not too much between these too sides which makes this far too generous especially given the pressure is on them to attack.

1.5pt e/w David Villa to score first @ 5/2 (Ladbrokes) - Villa, Mestalla, 3/10 on the home win..... enough said.

Back to Cheltenham tomorrow!

Another Men-tal reaction from the bookies

OK we'llstart with the basics of CL:

2pts Draw CSKA v Sevilla 23/10 (Ladbrokes)
3pts Draw Inter v Chelsea 21/10 (Ladbrokes) - Feb 2002 was the last time Mourinho lost a home game.

Sell booking for 1pt per card in both games at 48 and 40 (extrabet)

OK now onto the Supreme Novices! I mean there is not a lot more that can be said about the beast that is Dunguib - every race he wins unextended winning in fast times against some pretty useful horses. He sluiched in in the Bumper last year and I will be massively surprised if he is not back in the winners enclosure this year. That said why back a horse at odd-on 3 weeks before a race when you can prob get the same price on him on the day. So he is not the horse I'm going to tip up. I think the horse that needs to be backed in this one is Menorah (each-way). He put up a massive performance when destroying Bellvano over Christmas and one of the few horse I expect will actually be in shot when Dunguib crosses the finish line. His jumping can be a bit sloppy at times which is a worry, but 12/1 on the horse who should capitalise if anything goes wrong for Dunguib and 3/1 on this horse making the top 3 is much to big to turn down. This horse was 8/1 last week before getting beaten in a mess of a race at the weekend (went with the leaders who were going way to fast and got caught by Ruby who was smart enough to stay of the pace.) Get me out of here is another classy horse who will be fighting it out for the minor honurs but not in the same league as the first 2. Oscar Whiskey and Blackstairmountain could be anything as it is hard to make a decent assessment based on their facile wins in 2 and 1 starts respectively but probably a little inexperienced to make a proper mark here.

1pt e/w Menorah 12/1 (Lads, PP, WH)

If at first you don't succeed....

OK a solid weekend of football and the mighty David Villa have led a recovery to +16.92pts. Now some of you may have doubted my advice last week as i didn't go into a huge amount of detail so I dug out my spreadsheet which has all the data from 2004 (when the current CL format was adopted) and I can tell you that in the 40 second round 1st leg games before this season 33%of them ended in draws indicating the average draw price should be 2/1 and obviously for cerrtain games it should be even shorter. If you feel that 40 is too small a number to make a definitive judgement on you can add in the first leg result in all CL 2 leg ties and you still get a draw percentage of 33% (the split of wins between home and away changes because unlike in the second roujnd the stronger team is not always away from home). So with those numbers behind us lets plough on and hope for some nice mean reversion this week.



2.5pts Draw Olypiakos v Bordeaux @ 23/10 (Ladbrokes)



1.5pts Draw Barcelona v Stuttgart @4.1 (Betfair)

0.5pts 1-0 Barca 9.2 (Betfair)

Sell bookings for 1.5pts a card @ 40 (extrabet)

0.2pt Lucky 15 draws in all 4 games (23/10, 5/2, 23/10, 21/10) - Ladbrokes

Size fits the bill

The Arkle is a race that has confused me for a while and I'm still not 100% sure I have it completely nailed. I had at one stage decided that it was impossible for any of the horses to win it but obviously something has to so I'll try and take a stab at who will benefit from the other horses failings.

OK lets start with the favourite Capt CB - basically he doesn't jump well enough to win an Arkle, if this was a bumper then maybe I'd be tempted to back him at those prices but the 8 large fences standing between him and victory are enough to put me off. He definitely a classy horse but I just think when he's asked to jump his fences at speed he is too error prone.

Somersby is a horse I really like - I just wish he would skip Cheltenham and go straight to Aintree. I think he prob is a bit better on a flatter track. He might get a little lost coming down the hill only to battle back into a place the way he did in the Supreme last year.

Riverside Theatre prob has the best form of any of these horses, however for some reason I have it in my head that this is a small horse (can somebody confirm or deny this for me please?) In that case the large field would prob not suit the horse and cause it to spend too much energy fighting for position. If it weren't for concerns over size this would be my tip.

If the ground was soft it would bring Sports Line into the equation but I'm sure as always it will turn up Good to Soft for the festival and just be too firm for him to be seen at his best, also if it was to get really soft due to weather back home it could open the door for an unlikely appearance by An Cathaoir Mor and he would take some beating in the mud.

So despite my concerns about backing a horse that has previously had breathing problems at Cheltenham I am going to have to tip up Sizing Europe. His last run over hurdles had him within a couple of lengths of Solwhit and he has done all that was asked of him since going chasing. OK maybe he wouldn't have beaten Capt CB if he had stood up over Christmas but I don't want to bet on CB standing up this time either.

1pt Sizing Europe 13/2 (Paddy Power, Will Hill)