Clarification

Ok another good night see our overall profits hit the +47.21pts. Just to clarify on the Arsenal game though. Just because I assume that the overall split of results is 60:20:20 doesn't mean I think this applies in each game. It was just that Arsenal were 4/6 (60% prob) to win the game according to the bookies and I was relatively happy with this assessment. If anything the bookies may put the home team in these ties slightly bigger than they should due to underestimating the home advantage. If Arsenal are better than a 4/6 shot that would hav had a negative impact on our Porto win bet but a positive impact on our lay of the draw. Given that we laid the draw for more than we backed Porto any error should work in our favour overall.

So on to tonight....

2pts Man Utd @ 1.78 (Betfair): Man Utd are the better team here and with home advantage and Rooney back I think they should be much shorter. Granted they don't have to go for the win but I still think they are unlikely to sit back until the last 10 mins at which stage if it's still 0-0 Milan will need 2 goals to progress.

0.5pts Lyon @ 10/1 (VC): I fully expect Real to win this game but I can't get away from thinking that Lyon have to have more than a 9% chance of victory. I think people actually over-emphasise how strong Real are at home. OK they have a 100% record there in the league (thanks to only playing Sevilla out of the top teams - which as you'll know they nearly messed up) and they did lose to a late Pato goal in their toughest CL tie. I think the longer it remains scoreless the higher the chances are that Lyon can catch them on the break.

0.5pts e/w Higuain to score first @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes): If Real do deliver as expected it could be wise to side with Higuain as first goalscorer. He may not grab as many headlines as Ronaldo but his record in front of goal is just as impressive this season. In a game where the total goals line is about 3.1 the each way part of this looks particularly attractive.

On the cards front the referees tonight are both very calm and sensible ref's so we will only play at reduced stakes - however it can't be ignored that 13 of the last 18 R16 2nd leg ties would have collected on this bet so:

1pt 4-6 Cards - Man U v Milan @5/4
1pt 4-6 cards - Real v Lyon @ 19/20

Just a quick note on Cheltenham:
1pt e/w Denman @ 4/1 (Will Hill): We backed him already at 7/2. At an even bigger price I can't resist adding to the stake.

OK a disappointing performance on the Spanish football took a bit of the shine of a pretty successful weekend where we pushed our profits to +38.22pts. Champions League tonight! In the second leg of these ties the home team have averaged roughly a 60% strike rate over the last 5 years. The split between draws and away wins is a little less certain with R16 games having a 18:22 split but overall having a 23:17 split. It seems as if away wins get less and less likely as the tournament progresses (no away team has won a semi final second leg since the CL adopted this format). However I am not confident there is really enough data so suggest that this is statisically significant and so I am working off the assumption that the H:D:A split is roughly 60:20:20

This being the case:

2.5pts Fiorentina @ 15/8 (bet365): I thought they were under-rated for the first round clash and they continue to be under-rated. They were very unlucky to be beaten the last day and Bayern continue to be judged on their team sheet and not their performances. At home we have to side with the Italians here.

Lay to lose 3 pts Draw @ 4.0 Arsenal v Porto (Betfair): A finely balanced tie but the stats suggest that the draw should be about 5.0 and Porto should be a similar price.

0.5pts Porto @ 6.4 (Betfair): see above

Also as far as I can remember from my spreadsheet last night the bookings make up for these games averages about 51.5pts. I also seem to remember that only 2 games in the last 2 years made up at less than 40. This would suggest that totals are clustered around the 40-60 mark with a coouple of outliers so....

2pts 4-6 cards in each game. Both at 19/20 (Will Hill)

Saturday Football

It's Saturday which means some bookie somewhere is doing something stupid again! Since most of the good horses are wrapped up until Cheltenham it's all football today.



1.5pts Bolton @ 4/1 (Boyles, VC): There is only 1 point between these 2 sides in the league so to have the Hammers shorter than 4/5 does not make sense. They should be out around the 5/4 mark but it does leave a nice juicy price on Bolton to get a few points further away from the relegation dogfight.

2pts Under 2.5 goals Man Utd v Wolves (general): Looks like Rooney won't start and Owen is also out. Hard to see where the goals will come from here with Utd so reliant on Rooney this season.

1.5pts Wolves +2 @4/5 (Sportingbet): I was originally going to just lay Utd. But in the past they have developed a talent for squeeking these games when it counts. Wolves losing by a single goal wouldn't be a massive surprise

2.5pts Portsmouth @13/8 (Lads): This price won't last long so maybe take your stake down a 1/2 pt if you don't get it. The seige mentality should see Portsmouth start to play to their ability now as all these players will be looking for new employers in the next few months. Birmingham might just be starting to get a bit burned out as their reliance on the same 11 players starts to take its toll. Expect an electric atmosphere and at least some of the gloom around Fratton Park to be lifted at least temporarily

3pts Aston Villa @ 5/6 (VC): Maybe there is a reason why a team that is fighting for a champions league spot is 5/6 against a team fighting against relegation in the Championship but I sure as hell don't know what it is. Get on!

2.5pts e/w David Villa to score first @ 10/3 (Will Hill): you know the score at this stage.

1pt Sevilla @ 15/2 (Tote): 2nd v 4th - should the home team really be a 4/9 shot? I don't think so. If Real do win this they will know they were in a game. I wouldn't put people off backing the draw either but I just think there is slightly better value in hoping for an upset here.

Champion Chase + PP Madness

A nice easy race to dissect by comparison with some. I suppose it is only fair to start with the best horse in the race - Master Minded. Rated the best chaser in training after his romp here 2 years ago when he destroyed Voy Por by about 18Ls he has never really reached those heights since despite adding a second Champion last year. Nicholls claims that he is finally coming back to the form of 2 years ago and even without quite reaching those levels its not hard to see why he is as short as 4/5. However there are doubts over just how well he has recovered and although he wasn't overly extended the last day I'm never too happy to see a 2m chaser run within a month of Cheltenham.

Kalahari King is a mystery to me as to why he is where he is in the betting. Best of a very limited rest against Twist Magic at sandown before a comfortable win in a Class 2 handicap makes him second fav for the Champion Chase??

Twist Magic has raced at Cheltenham 3 times. He's fallen twice and the one time he stood up he was 6th of 8 beaten a full 52Ls by Master Minded. There are more deserving charities in Haiti and Chile for people to go giving away their money betting on this guy.

Big Zeb is one horse who can give the favourite a race (if he stands up). He would have beaten him last year at Punchestown apart from trying to demolish the last and going down by a head. Although he did fall last year it is worth remebering that English fences are easier to jump than Irish fences and is also going over fresh unlike when flopping in the Tingle Creek.

Of the rest Forpadytheplasterer always seems to find someone better than him and doesn't quite seem to have the class for this although the race wil be run to suit. Petit Robin is perhaps slightly over-priced at 20/1 given he put in a good show last year when losing 2nd on the run-in and had a good win over Christmas before finding flat track specialist TM too good for him in Ascot the last day. I expect a big run for 3rd or 4th. Might hold off and back him on the day for a place.

1.5pts e/w Big Zeb 8/1 (Will Hill)

I have just been alerted to PP insane MBS on the Supreme Novices. Get as much cash as possible down on this race with them on anything but the favourite (obviously don't have any docket for more than e300 as that would be stupid)

Champion Hurdle

OK a solid week has pushed our profits back up to +28.46pts. Now time to turn our thoughts to the Champion Hurdle which is a more tricky poser than I first thought. I have already advised 2pts Solwhit @ 6/1 and 1pt @ 7/1 and although in terms of the current market they look like nice bets I'm not too confident of actually collecting on them.

It's hard to knock a horse who has won 5 G1 in his last 6 starts but apart from a head defeat of Punjabi in Punchestown last May you would have to wonder just how strong the races he has won are. The horses filling second being Donna's Palm, Sublimity and Muirhead. Of these only Sublimity could be considered CH material and I think he is a few pounds off that level now. He hasn't actually ever run a race worthy of winning a CH. Now maybe when the questions are asked he will have the answers but it is worth remembering that when he did face the big boys in Newcastle he was brushed aside quite comfortably by Go Native.

Go Native is the horse who should be favourite for this race. An above average Supreme winner last year he has nailed all his big targets this year after losing on his debut. Carberry can be relied on not to get him to the front too soon to avoid the idling problems he encounter here last year and at Kempton over Christmas. The stats are against him but he really does look a classy horse.

Zaynar has been running over 2 1/2m for most of the season and hasn't done anything special to deserve his elevated place in the market - ignore.

Medermit is well held by Khyber Kim on his last 2 runs at Cheltenham and hasn't improved to the same extent as Go Native has from when he got within 1/2L last year.

Khyber Kim beat Celestial Halo at Cheltenham in December which has to be respected however on the better ground that we would expect at the festival I think he will get done for pace and find a few better than him. V. interesting if it was to turn up soft though.

Punjabi is the reigning champion and showed he was in good health with an easy win at the weekend. He always seems to come good in the spring on better ground and also has a 3rd to his name when beaten by Katchit in this race 2 years ago. At 10/1 I would much rather back this horse e/w than some of the horses ahead of him in the betting.

Celestial Halo was just touched off in this race last year but the fact that Nicholls already has him schooling over fences say s it all about where he believes this horses future lies.

If I had to call the tricast I would go:
1. Go Native
2. Punjabi
3. Solwhit

So as regards betting wise I actaully think the best bet available is
2pts Go Native to be favourite @ 6/4 (888sport)- is already slight favourite on betfair and I think once people start to properly examine the form he will overtake Solwhit with the bookies a sfavourite too.

Related to the above as I expect GN to shorten and Solwhit to lenghten (also as we already have a significant interest in Solwhit from our previous bets).
1.5pts Go Native @ 9/2 (Will Hill, VC)
1.5 pts Lay Solwhit @ 5.7 (betfair) - only if you already have him backed
0.5pts e/w Punjabi @ 10/1 (Lads, WH, 888)

There will be blood

OK so it's Old Firm time again so once again we can expect 90 mins of tackling of the sort that would make Shawcross look like an over-eager cheerleader. Fortunately some of the bookies seem to underestimate just how much these players like to kick each other. But firstly Rangers are at home, they are seven points clear with a game in hand and yet they go into the game at 11/8? They should be closer to the 11/10 mark so get stuck in, also quite likely to benefit from a numerical advantage by the end of the game to give their chances an added boost.

2pts Rangers @ 11/8 (Will Hill)

2pts more than 6 cards @ 7/5 (Will Hill): This would have collected in 6 of the last 10 league Old Firms to the best of my knowledge and seems reasonable it could cash again today.

2pts on the first booking to happen before the 25th min @ 5/6 (888sport): expect a fiery start with the referee eager to assert his authority early on.

1pt Tottenham @11/10 (888sport): 8pts clear of Everton and in scoring form, this looks a little too big. Should probably be just about odds-on.

1.5pts Fulham @ 4.0 (Betfair): Even despite their horrendous away record and the fact they travelled back from the Ukraine on Friday I can't pass up this price on a team that are 11pts clear of their opposition - a team that appear to be falling apart after a promising start to the season.

Saturday bits and bobs

2pts Soldatino @13/8 (Boyles): Over-priced just because he is French in my opinion. Should be favourite here aginst what looks like fairly limited opposition.

1pt Ireland @ 2.05 (888sport): Seems an over-reaction to last weeks hiding in Paris. We are by far the better team and can overcome the Twickenham atmosphere.

2pts Italy @ 2/1 (Skybet): Not much between these teams and with home advantage this looks a crazy quote on a team that arev very hard to break down.

1pt Birmingham @19/20 (Will Hill): Birmingham are 12 pts clear going into this tie and the prices do not reflect their superiority this season.

2pts 1st half highest scoring half Barca v Malaga @11/5 (totesport): Usual reaons.

1pt e/w Messi to score first @ 3/1 (Paddypower): Basically playing for the evns we get on him scoring anytime.

1pt e/w Ronaldo to score first @ 3/1 (Paddypower): As above.