OK not as much to get involved with tonight but a few lenient ref about so we'll have a little dabble there:
Sell booking @38 for 0.2pts per pt Man U v Valencia (betfair): Viktor Kassai has a lot of experience as a European referee and has never been one to brandish cards lightly. Averages under 30 points a game so get involved here.
Sell booking @39 for 0.15pts per pt Rangers v Bursaspor(Sportingindex): Gumienny doesn't have a huge amount of experience but a large portion of his games end with no bookings at all giving him an average make-up of 20pts.
Sell booking @36 for 0.15pts per pt Rubin v Barca(Sportingindex):I don't have much info on Cakir but on the 6 games I can find he has reffed he has given out a total of 6 yellow card averaging 10pts a game with 3 games being card free. That is enough to get us involved here.
1pt Schalke @ 2.7 (Betfair): I think people are over-reacting to Schalke's bad start to the season and they have improved in the last couple of games. Benfica are not a great team and for them to be rated so far above Schalke seems wrong to me (Schalke would be roughly 6/5 if teams were rated equal). Sportingindex have Schalke 0.25goals better than Benfica for this game which seems closer to the mark. Take advantage of the discrepancy in the fixed odds market and back the Germans.
0.5pts Werder Bremen @7.2 (Betfair): Again the strength of the German league seems underestimated here to me. Inter weren't exactly impressive drawing away to Twente while Werder showed a lot of resilience to come back from a horrendous start against Spurs the last day. A small bet on the Germans seems called for.
Wednesday, 29 September 2010
Tuesday, 28 September 2010
CL Tuesday
OK so back to some of the old reliables for our CL bets tonight.
Sell bookings for 0.2pts a point @36 Ajax v Milan (Sportingindex): Byrch is one of the most lenient referees in Europe with an average booking make-up of under 22. Nothing here to suggest the line should be so much higher. Maybe a line of 30 would be more in line given the evenly matched nature of this tie.
Buy bookings for 0.1pts a point @38 Chelsea v Marseille (Sportingindex): DeBleekere on the other hand has averaged nearly 46pts a game since the 05/06 season. Easy to see 5 or 6 cards here in what will be a tighter match than most people expect.
1.5pts under 2.5 goals - Auxerre v Real @1.825 (bet365): Real have conceeded 2 goals in 8 games so far this season and are not nearly so gung-ho under Mourinho. They are playing away from home against one of the most defensive teams in France. Everything points to a low scoring affair.
0.8pts Real to win 1-0 @ 7.0 (betfair)
0.8pts Real to win 2-0 @ 6/1 (Betfred)
0.4pts Real to win 3-0 @14.0 (betfair)
Real can prevail in what should be a tight affair and with 6 clean sheets behind them already back them to repeat the trick here without going to town on the opposition.
1.5pts Milan @3.25 (Betfair): there has been a massive gamble on Ajax today. Yesterday this game was very much a case of 7/4 each of 2 but in the fixed odds markets Ajax are now 7/5 and Milan are 9/4. The spread firms are holding firm on their opening chalks so I'l going to hope they are the one's that are right and bail in on Milan.
0.5pts e/w James Mackie to score first QPR v Millwall @ 9/2 (bet365): Has really come into his own since signing for QPR. Has hit 8 in 8 so far this season including a brace in both of his last 2 games. Slight bit of value on him getting on the scoresheet again tonight.
Sell bookings for 0.2pts a point @36 Ajax v Milan (Sportingindex): Byrch is one of the most lenient referees in Europe with an average booking make-up of under 22. Nothing here to suggest the line should be so much higher. Maybe a line of 30 would be more in line given the evenly matched nature of this tie.
Buy bookings for 0.1pts a point @38 Chelsea v Marseille (Sportingindex): DeBleekere on the other hand has averaged nearly 46pts a game since the 05/06 season. Easy to see 5 or 6 cards here in what will be a tighter match than most people expect.
1.5pts under 2.5 goals - Auxerre v Real @1.825 (bet365): Real have conceeded 2 goals in 8 games so far this season and are not nearly so gung-ho under Mourinho. They are playing away from home against one of the most defensive teams in France. Everything points to a low scoring affair.
0.8pts Real to win 1-0 @ 7.0 (betfair)
0.8pts Real to win 2-0 @ 6/1 (Betfred)
0.4pts Real to win 3-0 @14.0 (betfair)
Real can prevail in what should be a tight affair and with 6 clean sheets behind them already back them to repeat the trick here without going to town on the opposition.
1.5pts Milan @3.25 (Betfair): there has been a massive gamble on Ajax today. Yesterday this game was very much a case of 7/4 each of 2 but in the fixed odds markets Ajax are now 7/5 and Milan are 9/4. The spread firms are holding firm on their opening chalks so I'l going to hope they are the one's that are right and bail in on Milan.
0.5pts e/w James Mackie to score first QPR v Millwall @ 9/2 (bet365): Has really come into his own since signing for QPR. Has hit 8 in 8 so far this season including a brace in both of his last 2 games. Slight bit of value on him getting on the scoresheet again tonight.
Sunday, 26 September 2010
Loco Football
I thought I was done for the day but the late kick offs in La Liga look to be priced pretty crazy to me.
3pts Sevilla 2.78 (Betfair): This price implies that Sevilla are only about 10-12 points better than Hercules over the whole season. Lets not get carried away with Hercules' shock win over Barca where they basically copied Mourinho's Inter strategy for beating Barca. This is a team that may be disciplined and well organised but they are not going to be finishing the season in the top half. Sevilla should be in around the evens mark for this game by my reckoning. Get involved!
3pts Atletico 1.66 (Betfair): This price should be 1/2 max. Atletico have had a good start to the season and will be looking to try to get themselves a CL spot come the end of the season. Zaragoza will be lucky if they are not relegated. Given that 4/6 looks overly generous.
3pts Sevilla 2.78 (Betfair): This price implies that Sevilla are only about 10-12 points better than Hercules over the whole season. Lets not get carried away with Hercules' shock win over Barca where they basically copied Mourinho's Inter strategy for beating Barca. This is a team that may be disciplined and well organised but they are not going to be finishing the season in the top half. Sevilla should be in around the evens mark for this game by my reckoning. Get involved!
3pts Atletico 1.66 (Betfair): This price should be 1/2 max. Atletico have had a good start to the season and will be looking to try to get themselves a CL spot come the end of the season. Zaragoza will be lucky if they are not relegated. Given that 4/6 looks overly generous.
Saturday, 25 September 2010
Back in the game!
OK a solid start +5.45pts from yesterday (Footie +4.24 Racing +1.21). A few more speculative bets for tomorrow on the football>
0.5pts Newcastle/Stoke HT/FT @50/1 (VCbet): Stoke are actually slightly under-rated by the bookies in the bettting even based on the revised spread lines there is very little between these 2 teams and so anything above 3/1 is value in the match odds. Given Stoke's tendancy to concede early goals and lay siege to the opposition in the second half it could pay to side with this long-shot bet. David John on Sporting Life has highlighted this tendancy but I think he is missing some value by siding with the Newcastle/Draw option rather than having faith in Stoke to repeat the trick they did against Villa last week. Given that this result is currently trading on Betfair at 40/1 we are happy to get involved.
0.75pts Stoke @17/5 (VCbet): As mentioned above the very biggest Stoke should be would be 3/1 so we'll have a little nibble at the 17/5 on offer.
2pts Mikhail Glinka @10.0 (Betfair) 4.10 Ascot: The favourite in this race is very good comfortably beating the useful Holberg the last time out and going under by 2Ls to Melbourne Cup contender Sans Frontiers in the race before. However the second fav is nothing much to write home about with some pretty average performances in listed and group 3 races. The pick of which is being comfortably held by the fav 2 runs back. Mikhail Glinka is an ex- O'Brien horse with class written all over him but just not quite at the level of Cape Blanco and Jan Vermeer. He should have won a group 3 in Leopardstown first time out but was undone by a very muddling early pace. He then got his head in front in a 2m G3 before being sold as surplus to requirments at Ballydoyle and the next he was seen was being shipped half way around the world to compete in the Russian Derby in Moscow where he flopped. The form might not be eye-catching but his turn of foot is. This is a Group 1 horse running in a G3 as a stepping stone to greater things in my opinion.If can can get back near his best he can account for a pretty good G3 horse in Laaheb and even if he isn't I still think he will beat most of the rest of these.
0.5pts Newcastle/Stoke HT/FT @50/1 (VCbet): Stoke are actually slightly under-rated by the bookies in the bettting even based on the revised spread lines there is very little between these 2 teams and so anything above 3/1 is value in the match odds. Given Stoke's tendancy to concede early goals and lay siege to the opposition in the second half it could pay to side with this long-shot bet. David John on Sporting Life has highlighted this tendancy but I think he is missing some value by siding with the Newcastle/Draw option rather than having faith in Stoke to repeat the trick they did against Villa last week. Given that this result is currently trading on Betfair at 40/1 we are happy to get involved.
0.75pts Stoke @17/5 (VCbet): As mentioned above the very biggest Stoke should be would be 3/1 so we'll have a little nibble at the 17/5 on offer.
2pts Mikhail Glinka @10.0 (Betfair) 4.10 Ascot: The favourite in this race is very good comfortably beating the useful Holberg the last time out and going under by 2Ls to Melbourne Cup contender Sans Frontiers in the race before. However the second fav is nothing much to write home about with some pretty average performances in listed and group 3 races. The pick of which is being comfortably held by the fav 2 runs back. Mikhail Glinka is an ex- O'Brien horse with class written all over him but just not quite at the level of Cape Blanco and Jan Vermeer. He should have won a group 3 in Leopardstown first time out but was undone by a very muddling early pace. He then got his head in front in a 2m G3 before being sold as surplus to requirments at Ballydoyle and the next he was seen was being shipped half way around the world to compete in the Russian Derby in Moscow where he flopped. The form might not be eye-catching but his turn of foot is. This is a Group 1 horse running in a G3 as a stepping stone to greater things in my opinion.If can can get back near his best he can account for a pretty good G3 horse in Laaheb and even if he isn't I still think he will beat most of the rest of these.
Wednesday, 22 September 2010
New Season new start
OK we finished last year with a slightly disappointing profit of 29.45pts. We are now back starting from scratch again and this year not only will there be a running total but it will be split between racing football and other sports to see if there are any holes that need plugging in our betting strategy. I am finally back in Ireland semi-permanently and so there will be at least one blog each weekend with a midweek blog for football or any top class mid week racing.
I'll start off with a few match bets for Saturdays football.
1.5pts Man City 13/5 (bet365, VCbet) : Classic case of a team being over-estimated due to hype when putting away nonsense teams. Chelsea have looked impressive so far this season but they could barely have had an easier start playing 5 of the 6 worst rated teams in the division. The over-reaction to their perfect start has been massive. If this game happened mid season you would expect the bookies to make it perhaps 7/4 each side however here they have Chelsea as 6/5 fav away from home against a genuine top 4 team.
1pt Birmingham 5/6 (general): This is a fairly marginal call according to the spread firms season points expectations. But it's hard to pass up 5/6 on a team that hasn't been beaten at home for a year against possibly the worst team in the league.
2pts Sunderland +1.25 Asian Handicap @1.87 (VCbet): Torres has gotten a lot of flak recently for being off form but it hasn't helped him that his team-mates can't seem to pass the ball past midfield. Also the switch from zonal marking back to man marking has left them looking vunerable to any ball into the box. Sunderland have had a reasonable solid start to the season and can play their part in some of tomorrows worst TV viewing. I expect this to be a reasonably tight game and if Liverpool do turn it around I think they will be happy to win by the minimum. With this bet we win half if that happens and scoop the lot in the event of a draw or better for Sunderland.
1pt Borussia Dortmund 11/10 (Ladbrokes): Dortmund will be pushing Bayern all the way for the title this year while St. Pauli will be occupying themselves trying to avoid relegation. Given that odds against on Dortmund looks a little too generous
1.5pts Monaco draw no bet 11/8 (general): The match odds on this game don't seem to take into account the gulf in class between these 2 teams however given that Monaco have drawn 5 of their 6 games so far and neither teams are prolific goalscorers it makes sense to keep the draw onside and bet without it.
I'll put up some bets for Ascot now but I will hopefully have a few more racing bets in the morning once the other meetings are priced up.
0.5pts e/w Klammer 16/1 (general) - Ascot 2.30: This is a pretty weak group 2 and it is hard to make a case for a lot of the horses here. The favourite is a classy horse but a lot of hype surrounding him as a result of walking away with a nonsense race a few weeks back where his only real challenger was withdrawn at the start. Klammer won a listed race in France the last time out and had 2 reasonable runs in G2's before that. I think he can give the favourite the most to do and if the hotpot does turn out to be all hype he can land us a nice pot.
2pts White Moonstone 2.0 (betfair) - Ascot 3.05: Yes she would prefer a straight course and firmer ground but this immensly classy filly is good enough to win without that. Expect her to be a very warm favourite for the 1000 guineas after this race tomorrow.
2pts Makfi 10/11 (Stan James) - Ascot 4.15: Phenomenal winner of the guineas from Canford Cliffs in 3rd who had Rip Van Winkle well held the last time they met. Has a legitimate excuse for his one racecourse defeat when scoping dirty in the St. James Palace Stakes and put in a solid performance to beat Goldikova and Paco Boy the last day. One thing to note it is quite possible this horse will drift during the day (it is French after all and so not to be trusted by the English betting public). It is quite likely there will be a bit of money for Frankie on Poets Voice and I there will be those who still rate RVW on what he did last year rather than this years performances. That being the case if you back the horse early be sure to do it with a bookie with best odds guarantee.
OK thats all until the morning, happy punting!
I'll start off with a few match bets for Saturdays football.
1.5pts Man City 13/5 (bet365, VCbet) : Classic case of a team being over-estimated due to hype when putting away nonsense teams. Chelsea have looked impressive so far this season but they could barely have had an easier start playing 5 of the 6 worst rated teams in the division. The over-reaction to their perfect start has been massive. If this game happened mid season you would expect the bookies to make it perhaps 7/4 each side however here they have Chelsea as 6/5 fav away from home against a genuine top 4 team.
1pt Birmingham 5/6 (general): This is a fairly marginal call according to the spread firms season points expectations. But it's hard to pass up 5/6 on a team that hasn't been beaten at home for a year against possibly the worst team in the league.
2pts Sunderland +1.25 Asian Handicap @1.87 (VCbet): Torres has gotten a lot of flak recently for being off form but it hasn't helped him that his team-mates can't seem to pass the ball past midfield. Also the switch from zonal marking back to man marking has left them looking vunerable to any ball into the box. Sunderland have had a reasonable solid start to the season and can play their part in some of tomorrows worst TV viewing. I expect this to be a reasonably tight game and if Liverpool do turn it around I think they will be happy to win by the minimum. With this bet we win half if that happens and scoop the lot in the event of a draw or better for Sunderland.
1pt Borussia Dortmund 11/10 (Ladbrokes): Dortmund will be pushing Bayern all the way for the title this year while St. Pauli will be occupying themselves trying to avoid relegation. Given that odds against on Dortmund looks a little too generous
1.5pts Monaco draw no bet 11/8 (general): The match odds on this game don't seem to take into account the gulf in class between these 2 teams however given that Monaco have drawn 5 of their 6 games so far and neither teams are prolific goalscorers it makes sense to keep the draw onside and bet without it.
I'll put up some bets for Ascot now but I will hopefully have a few more racing bets in the morning once the other meetings are priced up.
0.5pts e/w Klammer 16/1 (general) - Ascot 2.30: This is a pretty weak group 2 and it is hard to make a case for a lot of the horses here. The favourite is a classy horse but a lot of hype surrounding him as a result of walking away with a nonsense race a few weeks back where his only real challenger was withdrawn at the start. Klammer won a listed race in France the last time out and had 2 reasonable runs in G2's before that. I think he can give the favourite the most to do and if the hotpot does turn out to be all hype he can land us a nice pot.
2pts White Moonstone 2.0 (betfair) - Ascot 3.05: Yes she would prefer a straight course and firmer ground but this immensly classy filly is good enough to win without that. Expect her to be a very warm favourite for the 1000 guineas after this race tomorrow.
2pts Makfi 10/11 (Stan James) - Ascot 4.15: Phenomenal winner of the guineas from Canford Cliffs in 3rd who had Rip Van Winkle well held the last time they met. Has a legitimate excuse for his one racecourse defeat when scoping dirty in the St. James Palace Stakes and put in a solid performance to beat Goldikova and Paco Boy the last day. One thing to note it is quite possible this horse will drift during the day (it is French after all and so not to be trusted by the English betting public). It is quite likely there will be a bit of money for Frankie on Poets Voice and I there will be those who still rate RVW on what he did last year rather than this years performances. That being the case if you back the horse early be sure to do it with a bookie with best odds guarantee.
OK thats all until the morning, happy punting!
Monday, 26 July 2010
Galway and racing of a different kind
OK today sees the first day of Galway and despite it's reputation as a bookies benefit we will be trying to make a few quid out of it for the first 2 days at least. However this week also sees the European athlethics championships take place and as usual the bookies don't really seem to know how to price it up.
We will start with the mens 400m an event which Ireland has very strong claims for a medal with David Gillick. As a result the Irish bookies seem to have skewed their prices a bit towards him. He was originally installed as 5/2 joint favourite with Boyles but some sort of sense seems to be coming to the market now with Jonathon Borlee hardening into 2/1 favourite although that still looks a little too big for me with him having run nearly 2/10ths of a second faster than any other European this year. In fact you could argue that Gillick should only be 3rd fav behind his training partner Rooney who definitely has the ability to pull a big run out of the bag here and take home the title. I see Borlee just holding him off though with Gillick getting up for the bronze.
1pt Borlee 2/1 (general)
The 100m sees convicted drugs cheat Chambers try to taint another championship by defeating the fastest white man in the world ever Lemaitre. Lemaitre has been running faster this year and hopefully for the sake of the Championship as well as the blog he can deliver on the European stage. The early 2/1 with ladbrokes has been taken but the 7/4 generally available still looks tempting
1pt Lemaitre 7/4
Some people would be suspicious about a woman who hasn't raced for over 2 years turning up at a track as a 30 year old and running over 2/10ths of a second faster than she has ever run before and over 4/10ths faster than her 2007 SB. However these are only the people who are too busy beating a path to bet365's door to lump on to her denying Laura Turner gold in the womens 100m
2pts Neumiarzhystkaya (try spelling that on a betting slip!) 7/4
And now back to Galway - Galway is a tight right handed track and as the ground dries out position is going to be important with prominent racers being favoured on the national hunt course.
In the first Fingal Rock does look to have a bit of class about him and the mare's allowance should ensure that if he is ridden prominently he can turn around form with Jerry Agent. However Jerrys Agent to be placed looks the bet of the race to me. This horse likes to make the running and the others will have to work hard to peg him back even allowing for the stiff uphill finish.
1.5pts Jerrys Agent to place (Betfair SP)
In the handicap hurdle Acclaimed looks like a progressive sort with a tendancy to track the leaders. I think he can improve again and taek advantage of a relatively light weight.
0.75pts e/w Acclaimed 12/1 (ladbrokes)
Given Welds record in the 7f maiden it isn't surprising to see A Word Apart as the favourite but I struggle to believe he should be so much ahead of Tashqeel in the betting. Tashqeel has shortened this morning but I think he will drift again once betting opens on course. The value each way on him is also phenomenal with several of the bookies paying 1/4 on all races today. I expect him to be at least 3s at the off but I will take the 11/4 now just in case with a bookies offering both 1/4 odds and best price guarantee
1pt e/w Tashqeel (Ladbrokes)
0.5pts e/w Lucky at Last 12/1 (Ladbrokes,PP) : has the right profile here and should run well.
Can't find anything in the next 2 races worth parting with any cash for. In the last though it may be worth a small bet on Apt Manor delivering for the Mullins after a long lay off
0.5pts Apt Manor 4/1 (VC, Stan James)
We will start with the mens 400m an event which Ireland has very strong claims for a medal with David Gillick. As a result the Irish bookies seem to have skewed their prices a bit towards him. He was originally installed as 5/2 joint favourite with Boyles but some sort of sense seems to be coming to the market now with Jonathon Borlee hardening into 2/1 favourite although that still looks a little too big for me with him having run nearly 2/10ths of a second faster than any other European this year. In fact you could argue that Gillick should only be 3rd fav behind his training partner Rooney who definitely has the ability to pull a big run out of the bag here and take home the title. I see Borlee just holding him off though with Gillick getting up for the bronze.
1pt Borlee 2/1 (general)
The 100m sees convicted drugs cheat Chambers try to taint another championship by defeating the fastest white man in the world ever Lemaitre. Lemaitre has been running faster this year and hopefully for the sake of the Championship as well as the blog he can deliver on the European stage. The early 2/1 with ladbrokes has been taken but the 7/4 generally available still looks tempting
1pt Lemaitre 7/4
Some people would be suspicious about a woman who hasn't raced for over 2 years turning up at a track as a 30 year old and running over 2/10ths of a second faster than she has ever run before and over 4/10ths faster than her 2007 SB. However these are only the people who are too busy beating a path to bet365's door to lump on to her denying Laura Turner gold in the womens 100m
2pts Neumiarzhystkaya (try spelling that on a betting slip!) 7/4
And now back to Galway - Galway is a tight right handed track and as the ground dries out position is going to be important with prominent racers being favoured on the national hunt course.
In the first Fingal Rock does look to have a bit of class about him and the mare's allowance should ensure that if he is ridden prominently he can turn around form with Jerry Agent. However Jerrys Agent to be placed looks the bet of the race to me. This horse likes to make the running and the others will have to work hard to peg him back even allowing for the stiff uphill finish.
1.5pts Jerrys Agent to place (Betfair SP)
In the handicap hurdle Acclaimed looks like a progressive sort with a tendancy to track the leaders. I think he can improve again and taek advantage of a relatively light weight.
0.75pts e/w Acclaimed 12/1 (ladbrokes)
Given Welds record in the 7f maiden it isn't surprising to see A Word Apart as the favourite but I struggle to believe he should be so much ahead of Tashqeel in the betting. Tashqeel has shortened this morning but I think he will drift again once betting opens on course. The value each way on him is also phenomenal with several of the bookies paying 1/4 on all races today. I expect him to be at least 3s at the off but I will take the 11/4 now just in case with a bookies offering both 1/4 odds and best price guarantee
1pt e/w Tashqeel (Ladbrokes)
0.5pts e/w Lucky at Last 12/1 (Ladbrokes,PP) : has the right profile here and should run well.
Can't find anything in the next 2 races worth parting with any cash for. In the last though it may be worth a small bet on Apt Manor delivering for the Mullins after a long lay off
0.5pts Apt Manor 4/1 (VC, Stan James)
Wednesday, 14 July 2010
Back home - to the home of golf
OK not a fantastic WC and I didn't really get to post much during it although for the first week that was probably a blessing in disguise. I'm back home now temporarily so I'm hoping to put regular updates up for the next 2 weeks. After that I will total the P&L for the year and reset to 0 for the new season. I will be on the move for the new season so if there is not much posted during August you know why but from Champion Stakes day in September onwards there will be at least one post each weekend and hopefully regular midweek posts for any key race meetings and midweek football. So on to the golf
I have to start with Tiger. He's played at 2 Opens here winning in a majors record of -19 one year and with a -14 total (5 shots clear) the other. He claims its his favourite course in the world and it is perfectly suited to his game so long as he can get a bit of confidence in his putting. He also has more or less the ideal tee time of 9.09am tomorrow when according to the Met Office the wind should be at its lowest and he should be completing his round before the visibility starts deteriorating.
Based on this the 7/1 that Hills were offering looks lunacy. Unfortunately that is gone now but there is still plenty of value in the 13/2 still available.
1.5pts Woods to win 13/2 (WH, Skybet, Coral)
Also given he has the ideal conditions on day one there is no harm in having a small bet on him to be first round leader. In previous St. Andrews opens he has started with 66 and 67. Anyone looking to back other players in this market should consult the forecast above and look for players teeing off at similar times to Tiger.
0.5pts Woods to be first round leader 18/1 (extrabet)
Paddy Power are paying 7 places, Boyles are paying 8 and 888sport are paying 6 at 1/3 of the odds so plenty of e/w value about this weekend. It might seem like overkill with the number of bets I put up but trust me the value you get on the place part of these bets is significant for example McIlroy is 9/2 on betfair for a top 5 finish yet you are getting 5/1 with an extra place being paid which prob should be a shade under 4/1
0.5pts e/w Rory McIlroy 15/1 (888sport)
0.5pts e/w Els 18/1 (88sport)
0.5pts e/w McDowell 33/1 (Powers)
0.25pts e/w Lowry 125/1 (888sport)
0.2pts e/w Chris Wood 80/1 (Paddy Power)
Also there are some interesting bets on the spreads where the spread supremacies just seem a little out of line with the fixed odds betting.
Buy Goggins/Roberts @3 for 0.1pts
Buy Kjeldson/Faldo @ 14 for 0.05pts
Buy Goydos/Hugo @ 6 for 0.1pts
For example in the Goydos Hugo match up above Goydos would be 1.48 in a match bet. In the Watney Wilson match up Watney would be 1.9 - that supremacy is also 6 which means either Goydos is huge value or Wilson is huge value or both. I think it is Goydos that is the best value here.
I have to start with Tiger. He's played at 2 Opens here winning in a majors record of -19 one year and with a -14 total (5 shots clear) the other. He claims its his favourite course in the world and it is perfectly suited to his game so long as he can get a bit of confidence in his putting. He also has more or less the ideal tee time of 9.09am tomorrow when according to the Met Office the wind should be at its lowest and he should be completing his round before the visibility starts deteriorating.
| Date | Time | Weather | Temp | Wind | Visibility | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Speed | Gust | |||||
| Wed 14 Jul | 2200 |  | 13 °C | NNE | 20 mph | Moderate | |
| Thu 15 Jul | 0100 | | 13 °C | NNE | 17 mph | Good | |
| 0400 |  | 13 °C | NNE | 13 mph | Poor | ||
| 0700 |  | 13 °C | NE | 9 mph | Poor | ||
| 1000 |  | 14 °C | E | 3 mph | Good | ||
| 1300 | | 17 °C | S | 2 mph | 15 mph | Poor | |
| 1600 | | 19 °C | SSW | 12 mph | 24 mph | Poor | |
| 1900 |  | 18 °C | SSW | 14 mph | Very Good | ||
| Night | | 11 °C | S | 15 mph | Poor | ||
1.5pts Woods to win 13/2 (WH, Skybet, Coral)
Also given he has the ideal conditions on day one there is no harm in having a small bet on him to be first round leader. In previous St. Andrews opens he has started with 66 and 67. Anyone looking to back other players in this market should consult the forecast above and look for players teeing off at similar times to Tiger.
0.5pts Woods to be first round leader 18/1 (extrabet)
Paddy Power are paying 7 places, Boyles are paying 8 and 888sport are paying 6 at 1/3 of the odds so plenty of e/w value about this weekend. It might seem like overkill with the number of bets I put up but trust me the value you get on the place part of these bets is significant for example McIlroy is 9/2 on betfair for a top 5 finish yet you are getting 5/1 with an extra place being paid which prob should be a shade under 4/1
0.5pts e/w Rory McIlroy 15/1 (888sport)
0.5pts e/w Els 18/1 (88sport)
0.5pts e/w McDowell 33/1 (Powers)
0.25pts e/w Lowry 125/1 (888sport)
0.2pts e/w Chris Wood 80/1 (Paddy Power)
Also there are some interesting bets on the spreads where the spread supremacies just seem a little out of line with the fixed odds betting.
Buy Goggins/Roberts @3 for 0.1pts
Buy Kjeldson/Faldo @ 14 for 0.05pts
Buy Goydos/Hugo @ 6 for 0.1pts
For example in the Goydos Hugo match up above Goydos would be 1.48 in a match bet. In the Watney Wilson match up Watney would be 1.9 - that supremacy is also 6 which means either Goydos is huge value or Wilson is huge value or both. I think it is Goydos that is the best value here.
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