Believe in the Honey Monster

Ok. Just a quick update - a bit tight on time at the mo, but we are back in healthy profit after a nice 11pt+ profit last weekend.

2pts Russia (v. Germany) Ladbrokes 6/4: Top of the table clash that will decide who gets to avoid the playoffs. A must win game for Russia while a draw should be enough for Germany. Therefore I would be expecting an open game particularly towards the end. Was originally going to advise a lay of the draw but I think there is slightly more value in trusting in the genius of Hiddink to shine through again and Russia to get the result they need in the intimidating atmosphere in Moscow.

2pts Bellamy to score at anytime Expekt.com 39/10: I opened an account just to have this bet! I think Finland have kept one clean sheet in their last 10 games and although Wales are a pretty poor team a player of Bellamy's class should be looking forward to a fruitful day even if Wales have their own problems at the back.

0.5pts Richard Dunne to score first 33/1: The Italians will be quite happy to sit deep and not take any chances which is reflected in the 15/8 quotes about the draw. With that being the case Irelands best chance of breaking down the Italian resistance may be from a set piece with Dunne being our key man for corners and free kicks. He already netted twice in this campaign with both goals coming in our tough games against Bulgaria. Hopefully he can deliver again (and not just for the sake of our bank balance). If so he can pay for the plane to South Africa!

Wow nearly missed a good one - a good example of people over-reacting to a team needing to win a game is the price on Portugal to win tonight. They have struggled to score all campaign and are 1.16 to beat Hungary tonight. I think they probably will get their 3 pts but I would put anyone off laying that. The bet I will advise though is:
2pts Hungary +2 on the Asian Handicap @1.86 (Betfair) - they have lost the 3 games they have played against the groups 3 heavyweights by a single goal and there is no reason to believe they are going to Lisbbon to lie down. Just have to hope that the 2nd best player in the world doesn't have one of his nights!