Wednesday, 16 March 2016
When you find youself walking thru hell...keep on walking
"We shall heal our wounds, collect our dead and continue fighting" - Mao Tse Tung
I got home from work today to discover my only real winner of the week so far - that while I was at work the gents up in The Corkscrew had managed to deliver 3 cases of their finest wines to my house in my absence. There was a moment (and when I say moment I mean an hour) where I was tempted to turn off my phone, pull the curtains and lock the door and then spend from now til next Monday drinking myself through it but as Ali used to say - Don't quit, suffer now and live your life as a champion. So we fight on to try to salvage something from the wreckage of Cheltenham 2016
JLT:
If you asked 4 hours ago who I thought I would be backing here it would have been a very different answer but digging deeper into the form means Outlander and Bristol de Mai are actually 2 of the first I discounted. Maybe a bit harsh on Outlander to blame him for the tour of the British countryside that Bryan Cooper brought him on while he was trying to win the Neptune last year but put in his place by Shaneshill the next day and despite never being in danger of being beaten over fences over the winter never beat anything of note. Bristol de Mai is probably held by Garde La Victoire who has taken a slightly circuitous route here since beating him in October but has won a hurdle over 2 1/2m around Cheltenham so the step back up in trip probably holds no fears. That said although a worthy favourite is only slight value @4/1 in a pretty open race. Black Hercules has never been a horse I've liked and once again priced off the hype rather than the ability. The 3 Musketeers will have his fans tomorrow but I think there's too much to forgive from his last run to just plough in off the run before. Kings Odessey is a dark horse who I think will outrun his odds but the horse I really want on side is L'Ami Serge. Since he has come to England the horse that have filled the runner up spot to him include - Kilcooley (2nd best hurdles time speed this season) Killultagh Vic (nuff said) and Doctor Harper (we'll come to him later). He only managed 4th at the festival last year but the 3 horses that finished ahead of him have 2 wins and a second already this year. I'll forgive him for getting caught cold against Violet Dancer last time out who looked a real dark horse. He's been overlooked here so smash in.
L'Ami Serge 2pts e/w 9/1
Pertemps:
There is no quantity of wine that could make a man make sense of this race. If I was forced to have a bet I would go with Missed Approach who doesn't seem to like racing often but when he gets to the track he does show a decent level of form. Assuming he doesn't manage to fall out of the horsebox on the way to the track 11/1 seems alright that he'll come out on top
Ryanair:
Vautour should be winning the Gold Cup on Friday. Given he's not, he'll be winning this instead so pretty much trying to find who will be second here so I could try and make a case for 2 horse that should be tailed off in the Gold Cup behind him or an old aged pensioner but instead I'll take my chances with a young gun. Josses Hill beat Gods Own 8Ls the last day (roughly the amount he was beaten in the Champion Chase today) and can easily improve on last years showing. Will be very hard to keep him out of a place.
1.5pts Josses Hill 25/1
World Hurdle:
I should probably flag up in advance that in his career every race that Thistlecrack has run in I have lost cash...the more timid investors may now be running for cover and if you feel like skipping the next paragraph I can't really blame you. If you have kept reading you probably expect me to be talking up Martello which is kinda what I thought I would be doing about lunchtime but but Arbre de Vie and NMH have let down his form from last year today and even though I didn't worry too much about the run over Christmas as his last run back his last run was worrying. Alpha Des Obeuax look the only real danger to the favourite and having raced with the best of them over 2 1/2 he is now looking to take down the very soft 3m division. Think Thistlecrack sluices up but the only horse I see beating him is this guy
1pt e/w Alpha des Obeaux
After this we are running on fumes.. Smart Talk is one of the ew bets of the festivals arounds 7s, Stilletto is a good punt @10/1 and in the last the Doc Harper has ridiculous form being unlucky to come up against some of the best in the business and is rightly fav in the last
Tuesday, 15 March 2016
We go again
Wow that was not the start we were hoping for or expected. 1 winner, 4 fallers and 1 death - if we keep up like this we will be outside Spar with a coffee cup long before the Gold Cup comes around, but we will keep plugging on and hopefully if tomorrows nags can resist the temptation to jump head first into the turf we can replenish the coffers and get ourselves a few bullets to finish off the week in style. At least we have an easy start to things tomorrow
Neptune:
Yanworth is unopposable here imo. He had the best single piece of novice form from his demolition job on trials day and he beat Charbel a lot easier in Ascot in December than Min did earlier so everything points to the fact that despite Yorkhill being a top novice Yanworth should have his measure. Hard to make a strong case for any of the rest.
3pts Yanworth 6/4
RSA:
This is a very tricky one and I am tempted to sit it out as I have doubts about pretty much the whole field. If Shaneshill had shown any ability to jump a fence I would have put him up at a big price but the mistakes he made at Naas under no pressure were punished when stepped up in class at Doncaster. Seeyouatmidnight emptied very quickly when in contention in a poor World Hurdle last year and don't think he really stays a true run 3m. Blaklion is all heart but would be a little worried that even 6 weeks later the battle in the mud the last day may have left a mark. More of That well he has looked impressive and is a former World Hurdle winner but he hasn't raced anything of note so hard to say how much of his old ability really remains (I think he'll win but @ 7/4 happy to pass). So that leaves 2 No More Heroes the horse that a lot of people smarter than me keep telling me is a future Gold Cup horse and I keep looking at them with a confused look on my face going - Really?!? What I do know is he has run 14 races 7 before the turn of the year and 7 after. His record before the turn of the year is 6/7 with just the one defeat on his hurdling debut. Of the 7 runs in the Spring he is 2/7 having taken down a decent bumper and a PTP but losing all 3 graded races. Now thismay be a bit of an abuse of statistics in that all 3 of those races came last spring and he ran a decent race in defeat in the Albert Bartlett but he has definitely never put in a spring performance that would have thinking Gold Cup so at the 5/2 mark I can readily pass especially when a horse who you could argue ran better last spring than he did is 4 times the price. Vyta de Roc beat Outlander a length here last year in the Neptune and was a stumble away from beating Nichols Canyon also. Looked to be coming into form and beat Minella Rocca by 1/2L the last day with him showing himself no slouch earlier today. At 10/1 definitely worth a small nibble.
1pt e/w Vyta du Roc
Coral Cup:
Politologue for last years winnng connections is tough to assess - seemed like he spooked at Cheltenhem in Dec and even though Nicholls is convinced he is well handicapped and has plenty of improvement to come I'm not convinced the occasional of the festival will see him at his best.
Ruby rides Blood Cotil who he was confident of winning on last year but ended up flopping before showing his true form later in the year at Punchestown. I would worry about history repeating itself here and the horse I like is Abre de Vie who ran an eyecatching race 3Ls behind No More Heros last year. In safe hands with David Mullins and likely a better price for the jockey change.
1pt ew Abre de Vie 12/1
Champion Chase:
A lot of horses here priced up on the former glories and will gladly dismiss the chances of the 3 previous winners in the race who all have their best days behind them. Un de Sceaux looked a champion in waiting the last day and my suspicion is the only horse that can beat him is himself. If he jumps well he will win but if Special Tiara takes him on up front it could put pressure on his jumping (2 falls in 7 chase starts) and if that happens the horse I think will be staying on past the others up the hill will be Gods Own. He got within 6Ls of UdS in last years Arkle and realistically speaking I think any of these horses will be delighted to get that close to him this year. If UdS does romp it we should still make a nice profit from the place money if Gods Own finds last years form.
1.5pts ew Gods Own 28/1
Cross Country:
Its not hard to see why Josies Order is a warm favorite in this given his record at the track and having Nina on board. Age and injury may have taken its toll on Balthazar King and I would expect the biggest challenge to come from Sire Collonges - was 2Ls back when they were well clear of Ballyboker Bridge back in December. At 4 times the price I'll take a chance that he can find enough improvement to squeeze by this time around
1.5pts ew Sire Collonges 12/1
Fred Winter:
As close to no opinion as possible on this race. Diego du Charmil could be anything but bookies not taking any chances. Jaleo could be one thats an improving spring horse and could go well but likely I'll already be flicking through Thursdays form by the time this one comes on.
Bumper:
Similar story here - if pushed I would go for a win for the girls with Augusta Kate very impressive winning a listed bumper in Navan but will be keeping stakes to a minimum on this.
Neptune:
Yanworth is unopposable here imo. He had the best single piece of novice form from his demolition job on trials day and he beat Charbel a lot easier in Ascot in December than Min did earlier so everything points to the fact that despite Yorkhill being a top novice Yanworth should have his measure. Hard to make a strong case for any of the rest.
3pts Yanworth 6/4
RSA:
This is a very tricky one and I am tempted to sit it out as I have doubts about pretty much the whole field. If Shaneshill had shown any ability to jump a fence I would have put him up at a big price but the mistakes he made at Naas under no pressure were punished when stepped up in class at Doncaster. Seeyouatmidnight emptied very quickly when in contention in a poor World Hurdle last year and don't think he really stays a true run 3m. Blaklion is all heart but would be a little worried that even 6 weeks later the battle in the mud the last day may have left a mark. More of That well he has looked impressive and is a former World Hurdle winner but he hasn't raced anything of note so hard to say how much of his old ability really remains (I think he'll win but @ 7/4 happy to pass). So that leaves 2 No More Heroes the horse that a lot of people smarter than me keep telling me is a future Gold Cup horse and I keep looking at them with a confused look on my face going - Really?!? What I do know is he has run 14 races 7 before the turn of the year and 7 after. His record before the turn of the year is 6/7 with just the one defeat on his hurdling debut. Of the 7 runs in the Spring he is 2/7 having taken down a decent bumper and a PTP but losing all 3 graded races. Now thismay be a bit of an abuse of statistics in that all 3 of those races came last spring and he ran a decent race in defeat in the Albert Bartlett but he has definitely never put in a spring performance that would have thinking Gold Cup so at the 5/2 mark I can readily pass especially when a horse who you could argue ran better last spring than he did is 4 times the price. Vyta de Roc beat Outlander a length here last year in the Neptune and was a stumble away from beating Nichols Canyon also. Looked to be coming into form and beat Minella Rocca by 1/2L the last day with him showing himself no slouch earlier today. At 10/1 definitely worth a small nibble.
1pt e/w Vyta du Roc
Coral Cup:
Politologue for last years winnng connections is tough to assess - seemed like he spooked at Cheltenhem in Dec and even though Nicholls is convinced he is well handicapped and has plenty of improvement to come I'm not convinced the occasional of the festival will see him at his best.
Ruby rides Blood Cotil who he was confident of winning on last year but ended up flopping before showing his true form later in the year at Punchestown. I would worry about history repeating itself here and the horse I like is Abre de Vie who ran an eyecatching race 3Ls behind No More Heros last year. In safe hands with David Mullins and likely a better price for the jockey change.
1pt ew Abre de Vie 12/1
Champion Chase:
A lot of horses here priced up on the former glories and will gladly dismiss the chances of the 3 previous winners in the race who all have their best days behind them. Un de Sceaux looked a champion in waiting the last day and my suspicion is the only horse that can beat him is himself. If he jumps well he will win but if Special Tiara takes him on up front it could put pressure on his jumping (2 falls in 7 chase starts) and if that happens the horse I think will be staying on past the others up the hill will be Gods Own. He got within 6Ls of UdS in last years Arkle and realistically speaking I think any of these horses will be delighted to get that close to him this year. If UdS does romp it we should still make a nice profit from the place money if Gods Own finds last years form.
1.5pts ew Gods Own 28/1
Cross Country:
Its not hard to see why Josies Order is a warm favorite in this given his record at the track and having Nina on board. Age and injury may have taken its toll on Balthazar King and I would expect the biggest challenge to come from Sire Collonges - was 2Ls back when they were well clear of Ballyboker Bridge back in December. At 4 times the price I'll take a chance that he can find enough improvement to squeeze by this time around
1.5pts ew Sire Collonges 12/1
Fred Winter:
As close to no opinion as possible on this race. Diego du Charmil could be anything but bookies not taking any chances. Jaleo could be one thats an improving spring horse and could go well but likely I'll already be flicking through Thursdays form by the time this one comes on.
Bumper:
Similar story here - if pushed I would go for a win for the girls with Augusta Kate very impressive winning a listed bumper in Navan but will be keeping stakes to a minimum on this.
Monday, 14 March 2016
Supa start to the week
It's been a long tortuous winter but finally spring is here and that can mean only one thing - its time for the Irish to pack their bags and head to the Cotwolds for another lorryload of cash and prizes. Fortunately you don't have to make the long trip over though to get the cash with plenty of bookies more than willing to top up your wheelbarrows closer to home. No fantastic specials like last year with most 'specials' nothing but gimmicks to get you in the door playing the virtual dogs but hopefully with a little but of careful planning we can still seperate them from their cash. No all in lumps on Day 1 but a few little bits and pieces of value and hopefully a bit more will emerge tomorrow morning when the bookies actually start to take opinions (so keep an eye on twitter over the day)
Supreme:
Looks like the Irish will dominate this again. Min is favourite having cruised to 2 wins over the winter without coming off the bridle. The main arguement Ive heard as to why he is a weak favourite is that he is not as good as Douvan or Vautour - the last 2 winners of this. That may be true but trust me none of the other horses in this are in that league either. He's favourite and deserves to be but 9/4-5/2 seems about right for a horse who despite his undoubted abillity has never really had to fight it out in his races. Probably the strongest arguement in his favour is that Graham Wylie thought it was better to take his horse Yorkhill off to fight Yanworth rather than take on Min at his optimum trip. Yanworth and Yorkhill have won the 2 best competitive novice hurdles of the winter and surely would have avoided each other if Yorkhill wasnt second best in the Mullins yard. Find it hard to like the 2 Henderson horses who are next in the market with Altior showing all the signs of a flat track bully when smashing things up in Kempton over Christmas while Buveur D'air beat some pretty average types in his 2 starts. If you want some value in the race I think you could do a lot worse than take a look at Supasundae who smashed previous Cheltenham bumper winner Silver Concorde by 13Ls in a novice hurdle over Christmas and obviously has a decent turn of foot having beaten Yanworth and Thistlecrack in his bumper days. For me he looks the only value in the race at the minute.
1.5pts e/w Supasundae 14/1
Arkle:
Douvan wins. Its that simple. He's 2/5 though so no one is likely to get rich backing that. I've come around to Vaniteax over the season. Before Christmas when adivsing everyone to back Ar Mad (the best 2m chaser in Britain) at Kempton I dismissed him as a hype horse. He put up a great showing that day to lose by 1/4L and I pretty quickly had to re-assess. He got within 6Ls of Vautour in a Supreme and if he gets as close to Douvan he should easily pick up second ahead of Sizing John. Comments from Henderson today that even he doesn't believe Douvan can be beaten and that Vaniteux will be ridden to get his best finishing position ie. 2nd mean if you haven't already taken bigger prices on Vaniteaux w/o Douvan then 7/4 is a decent price.
1pt Vaniteux (w/o Douvan) 7/4
Ultima Handicap:
Very unusual to see a horse go from being 4th in a gold cup 1 year to contesting this the next but thats whats has happened to Holywell with things not really working out for him since last year. Twice a festival winner though he is a horse that comes alive in the spring that said although I couldn't make a great case to tell people not to back him I think McLernon may have made a mistake in not choosing his stable mate Beg to Differ who followed up what was nothing more than a solid 2nd here on New Years Day with a very impressive win at Doncaster the last day. He went up 10lbs for that but there should still be more improvement to come from this 6 yo. Of the others at the top of the market Kruzlinin has the national as his main aim and will probably be more than happy running into a place here. Out Sam is probably the best handicapped horse in the race but racing in a big field on a track that likely wont suit means I can easily overlook the weight he has in hand
0.75pts e/w Beg to Differ 14/1
Champion Hurdle:
Annie Power hasn't had more than a training gallop in any race in the 2 years since More of That outstayed here in the World Hurdle a very classy mare but very skinny price with so many uncertainties on her first full blooded race in a long time. 2 years ago she would have won this race on the bridle but don't really fancy taking 2/1 to find out if that is still the case. Nichols Canyon is a horse I really like but think the Aintree hurdle is really the race for him - the difference in performance last year between the Neptune and the Mersey hurdle was pretty stark. Still think he will do enough to hold Identity Thief who has pretty close form with Top Notch who now looks the best of the top 3 in last years Triumph who all line up here and so I would also discount them too (although don't be surprised if Top Notch sneaks a place). All that leaves is The New One who without ever looking overly impressive this year has still beaten all in front of him with the exception of Faugheen. He possibly should have won this race 2 years ago and it really is now or never this time around. I think in a pretty open race he finally might have his time.
1.5 pts ew The New One 6/1
0.25pts ew Top Notch 18/1
Mares Hurdle:
Very hard to make a case against Vroum Vroum Mag who has won 8 in a row now on the bridle. Would expect Polly Peachum and a rehabilitated Bitofapuzzle to fight out the minor places like last year.
2.5pts Vroum Vroum Mag 11/10
0.5pts ew Polly Peachum 6/1
0.5pts ew Bitofapuzzle 16/1
National Hunt Chase
Easiest race of the day for me. Noble Endevour just failed to give 5lb to Killultagh Vic by a nostril last year and that horse would be favourite for the JLT if it wasn't for injury. Hasn't done anything wrong since and has been laid out for this all season. Back with confidence.
2.5pts ew Noble Endevour 7/1
Novice Handicap Chase
Trickiest race on the card and a lot to sift through. The one thing that stands out as possibly being overlooked is French recruit Rezorbi. Had a few wins in France before moving to Jonjo's yard and was just starting to move into contention on trials day before coming down 3 out. Worth a nibble.
0.5pts ew Rezorbi
Supreme:
Looks like the Irish will dominate this again. Min is favourite having cruised to 2 wins over the winter without coming off the bridle. The main arguement Ive heard as to why he is a weak favourite is that he is not as good as Douvan or Vautour - the last 2 winners of this. That may be true but trust me none of the other horses in this are in that league either. He's favourite and deserves to be but 9/4-5/2 seems about right for a horse who despite his undoubted abillity has never really had to fight it out in his races. Probably the strongest arguement in his favour is that Graham Wylie thought it was better to take his horse Yorkhill off to fight Yanworth rather than take on Min at his optimum trip. Yanworth and Yorkhill have won the 2 best competitive novice hurdles of the winter and surely would have avoided each other if Yorkhill wasnt second best in the Mullins yard. Find it hard to like the 2 Henderson horses who are next in the market with Altior showing all the signs of a flat track bully when smashing things up in Kempton over Christmas while Buveur D'air beat some pretty average types in his 2 starts. If you want some value in the race I think you could do a lot worse than take a look at Supasundae who smashed previous Cheltenham bumper winner Silver Concorde by 13Ls in a novice hurdle over Christmas and obviously has a decent turn of foot having beaten Yanworth and Thistlecrack in his bumper days. For me he looks the only value in the race at the minute.
1.5pts e/w Supasundae 14/1
Arkle:
Douvan wins. Its that simple. He's 2/5 though so no one is likely to get rich backing that. I've come around to Vaniteax over the season. Before Christmas when adivsing everyone to back Ar Mad (the best 2m chaser in Britain) at Kempton I dismissed him as a hype horse. He put up a great showing that day to lose by 1/4L and I pretty quickly had to re-assess. He got within 6Ls of Vautour in a Supreme and if he gets as close to Douvan he should easily pick up second ahead of Sizing John. Comments from Henderson today that even he doesn't believe Douvan can be beaten and that Vaniteux will be ridden to get his best finishing position ie. 2nd mean if you haven't already taken bigger prices on Vaniteaux w/o Douvan then 7/4 is a decent price.
1pt Vaniteux (w/o Douvan) 7/4
Ultima Handicap:
Very unusual to see a horse go from being 4th in a gold cup 1 year to contesting this the next but thats whats has happened to Holywell with things not really working out for him since last year. Twice a festival winner though he is a horse that comes alive in the spring that said although I couldn't make a great case to tell people not to back him I think McLernon may have made a mistake in not choosing his stable mate Beg to Differ who followed up what was nothing more than a solid 2nd here on New Years Day with a very impressive win at Doncaster the last day. He went up 10lbs for that but there should still be more improvement to come from this 6 yo. Of the others at the top of the market Kruzlinin has the national as his main aim and will probably be more than happy running into a place here. Out Sam is probably the best handicapped horse in the race but racing in a big field on a track that likely wont suit means I can easily overlook the weight he has in hand
0.75pts e/w Beg to Differ 14/1
Champion Hurdle:
Annie Power hasn't had more than a training gallop in any race in the 2 years since More of That outstayed here in the World Hurdle a very classy mare but very skinny price with so many uncertainties on her first full blooded race in a long time. 2 years ago she would have won this race on the bridle but don't really fancy taking 2/1 to find out if that is still the case. Nichols Canyon is a horse I really like but think the Aintree hurdle is really the race for him - the difference in performance last year between the Neptune and the Mersey hurdle was pretty stark. Still think he will do enough to hold Identity Thief who has pretty close form with Top Notch who now looks the best of the top 3 in last years Triumph who all line up here and so I would also discount them too (although don't be surprised if Top Notch sneaks a place). All that leaves is The New One who without ever looking overly impressive this year has still beaten all in front of him with the exception of Faugheen. He possibly should have won this race 2 years ago and it really is now or never this time around. I think in a pretty open race he finally might have his time.
1.5 pts ew The New One 6/1
0.25pts ew Top Notch 18/1
Mares Hurdle:
Very hard to make a case against Vroum Vroum Mag who has won 8 in a row now on the bridle. Would expect Polly Peachum and a rehabilitated Bitofapuzzle to fight out the minor places like last year.
2.5pts Vroum Vroum Mag 11/10
0.5pts ew Polly Peachum 6/1
0.5pts ew Bitofapuzzle 16/1
National Hunt Chase
Easiest race of the day for me. Noble Endevour just failed to give 5lb to Killultagh Vic by a nostril last year and that horse would be favourite for the JLT if it wasn't for injury. Hasn't done anything wrong since and has been laid out for this all season. Back with confidence.
2.5pts ew Noble Endevour 7/1
Novice Handicap Chase
Trickiest race on the card and a lot to sift through. The one thing that stands out as possibly being overlooked is French recruit Rezorbi. Had a few wins in France before moving to Jonjo's yard and was just starting to move into contention on trials day before coming down 3 out. Worth a nibble.
0.5pts ew Rezorbi
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