Supa start to the week

It's been a long tortuous winter but finally spring is here and that can mean only one thing - its time for the Irish to pack their bags and head to the Cotwolds for another lorryload of cash and prizes. Fortunately you don't have to make the long trip over though to get the cash with plenty of bookies more than willing to top up your wheelbarrows closer to home. No fantastic specials like last year with most 'specials' nothing but gimmicks to get you in the door playing the virtual dogs but hopefully with a little but of careful planning we can still seperate them from their cash. No all in lumps on Day 1 but a few little bits and pieces of value and hopefully a bit more will emerge tomorrow morning when the bookies actually start to take opinions (so keep an eye on twitter over the day)

Supreme:
Looks like the Irish will dominate this again. Min is favourite having cruised to 2 wins over the winter without coming off the bridle. The main arguement Ive heard as to why he is a weak favourite is that he is not as good as Douvan or Vautour - the last 2 winners of this. That may be true but trust me none of the other horses in this are in that league either. He's favourite and deserves to be but 9/4-5/2 seems about right for a horse who despite his undoubted abillity has never really had to fight it out in his races. Probably the strongest arguement in his favour is that Graham Wylie thought it was better to take  his horse Yorkhill off to fight Yanworth rather than take on Min at his optimum trip. Yanworth and Yorkhill have won the 2 best competitive novice hurdles of the winter and surely would have avoided each other if Yorkhill wasnt second best in the Mullins yard. Find it hard to like the 2 Henderson horses who are next in the market with Altior showing all the signs of a flat track bully when smashing things up in Kempton over Christmas while Buveur D'air beat some pretty average types in his 2 starts. If you want some value in the race I think you could do a lot worse than take a look at  Supasundae who smashed previous Cheltenham bumper winner Silver Concorde by 13Ls in a novice hurdle over Christmas and obviously has a decent turn of foot having beaten Yanworth and Thistlecrack in his bumper days. For me he looks the only value in the race at the minute.

1.5pts e/w Supasundae 14/1

Arkle:
Douvan wins. Its that simple. He's 2/5 though so no one is likely to get rich backing that. I've come around to Vaniteax over the season. Before Christmas when adivsing everyone to  back Ar Mad (the best 2m chaser in Britain) at Kempton I dismissed him as a hype horse. He put up a great showing that day to lose by 1/4L and I pretty quickly had to re-assess. He got within 6Ls of Vautour in a Supreme and if he gets as close to Douvan he should easily pick up second ahead of Sizing John. Comments from Henderson today that even he doesn't believe Douvan can be beaten and that Vaniteux will be ridden to get his best finishing position ie. 2nd mean if you haven't already taken bigger prices on Vaniteaux w/o Douvan then 7/4 is a decent price.

1pt Vaniteux (w/o Douvan) 7/4

Ultima Handicap:
Very unusual to see a horse go from being 4th in a gold cup 1 year to contesting this the next but thats whats has happened to Holywell with things not really working out for him since last year. Twice a festival winner though he is a horse that comes alive in the spring that said although I couldn't make a great case to tell people not to back him I think McLernon may have made a mistake in not choosing his stable mate Beg to Differ who followed up what was nothing more than a solid 2nd here on New Years Day with a very impressive win at Doncaster the last day. He went up 10lbs for that but there should still be more improvement to come from this 6 yo. Of the others at the top of the market Kruzlinin has the national as his main aim and will probably be more than happy running into a place here. Out Sam is probably the best handicapped horse in the race but racing in a big field on a track that likely wont suit means I can easily overlook the weight he has in hand

0.75pts e/w Beg to Differ 14/1

Champion Hurdle:
Annie Power hasn't had more than a training gallop in any race in the 2 years since More of That outstayed here in the World Hurdle a very classy mare but very skinny price with so many uncertainties on her first full blooded race in a long time. 2 years ago she would have won this race on  the bridle but don't really fancy taking 2/1 to find out if that is still the case. Nichols Canyon is a horse I really like but think the Aintree hurdle is really the race for him - the difference in performance last year between the Neptune and the Mersey hurdle was pretty stark. Still think he will do enough to hold Identity Thief who has pretty close form with Top Notch who now looks the best of the top 3 in last years Triumph who all line up here and so I would also discount them too (although don't be surprised if Top Notch sneaks a place). All that leaves is The New One who without ever looking overly impressive this year has still beaten all in front of him with the exception of Faugheen. He possibly should have won this race 2 years ago and it really is now or never this time around. I think in a pretty open race he finally might have his time.

1.5 pts ew The New One 6/1
0.25pts ew Top Notch 18/1

Mares Hurdle:
Very hard to make a case against Vroum Vroum Mag who has won 8 in a row now on the bridle. Would expect Polly Peachum and a rehabilitated Bitofapuzzle to fight out the minor places like last year.

2.5pts Vroum Vroum Mag 11/10
0.5pts ew Polly Peachum 6/1
0.5pts ew Bitofapuzzle 16/1


National Hunt Chase
Easiest race of the day for me. Noble Endevour just failed to give 5lb to Killultagh Vic by a nostril last year and that horse would be favourite for the JLT if it wasn't for injury. Hasn't done anything wrong since and has been laid out for this all season. Back with confidence.

2.5pts ew Noble Endevour 7/1

Novice Handicap Chase
Trickiest race on the card and a lot to sift through. The one thing that stands out as possibly being overlooked is French recruit Rezorbi. Had a few wins in France before moving to Jonjo's yard and was just starting to move into contention on trials day before coming down 3 out. Worth a nibble.

0.5pts ew Rezorbi