Monday, 28 December 2009
Welsh National
0.5pts e/w Halcon Genelardais 10/1 (Ladbrokes): Sometimes you can do worse than back the best horse in the race. This guy has finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd in the this race the last 3 years and has a little less weight this time around thanks to Mon Mome running. Bottomless ground should mean there aren't a huge amount of horses around at the business end of this. Hard to believe this guy won't
3rd day of Leopardstown
We edged our profits for the year up to 13.17pts yesterday thanks to the guaranteed prices offered by the bookies as both Petit Robin and Bandstand drifted from the EP's. Today looks like a tricky card with some races that will be an awful lot better for watching than for betting but we'll do our best anyway.
1pt Whatuthink 12.0 (betfair) - 1.30 Leopardstown: This is a slightly tentative choice. I narrowed the field down to 3 pretty quickly based mainly on formlines through Pandorama and Major Finnegan. I might be a bit rash in dismissing Catch Me so quickly but on a fairly shaky line through Caim Hill I put him to one side. Pandorama has done nothing wrong and is the class of the field however despite his exploits over hurdles last season he hasn't done enough over fences to justify as short a price as 5/4. He also has never raced over 3m (apart from a PTP) although Meade seems to think it will suit. Weapon's Amnesty is a favourite horse of mine and I did nibble at the early price of 7/1. That is now gone and at 6/1 I probably won't get involved again although you know the trip will be no problem and he will battle all the way to the line. Had a solid run the last time in Newcastle but will need to step up on that to win here. Whatuthink is a horse that should improve for the step up in trip the main question is his jumping which was his downfall last time out against Pandorama. He is a winter horse and with a bit of class having won a good hurdle here 2 years ago and hopefully the schooling will have worked. At 11/1 it's prob worth taking a chance although this is not a race to go broke on.
1.5pts Oscar Dan Dan 6/1 (general) 2.00 Leopardstown: Lie Forrit does have some good form in handicaps over in the UK but this is a step up. Oscar Dan Dan has a G1 to his name already this season and can't be faulted apart from tipping up at Navan. I think the step up in trip will help and he can confirm the form with the Ninetieth Minute which should be enough for this.
1pt What A Friend 5/1 (Paddy Power) 2.35 Leopardstown: Not a massively creative pick and I would expect this horse to go off a bit shorter given the world and his mother will be tipping it up today. Had a good run in the Hennessy behind Denman even if he was getting 22lbs. Nicholls didn't send him over for the airmiles and although on last seasons form he has a bit to find with Cooldine it is worth noting the respective trainer comments. This is a stepping stone to bigger things for Cooldine, whereas for What a Friend this is the pinnacle of his season. Mullins won't be overly disappointed to settle for some place money today with his eye firmly on Cheltenham in March.
Hopefully will have a post later looking at football and the Welsh National. Happy punting
1pt Whatuthink 12.0 (betfair) - 1.30 Leopardstown: This is a slightly tentative choice. I narrowed the field down to 3 pretty quickly based mainly on formlines through Pandorama and Major Finnegan. I might be a bit rash in dismissing Catch Me so quickly but on a fairly shaky line through Caim Hill I put him to one side. Pandorama has done nothing wrong and is the class of the field however despite his exploits over hurdles last season he hasn't done enough over fences to justify as short a price as 5/4. He also has never raced over 3m (apart from a PTP) although Meade seems to think it will suit. Weapon's Amnesty is a favourite horse of mine and I did nibble at the early price of 7/1. That is now gone and at 6/1 I probably won't get involved again although you know the trip will be no problem and he will battle all the way to the line. Had a solid run the last time in Newcastle but will need to step up on that to win here. Whatuthink is a horse that should improve for the step up in trip the main question is his jumping which was his downfall last time out against Pandorama. He is a winter horse and with a bit of class having won a good hurdle here 2 years ago and hopefully the schooling will have worked. At 11/1 it's prob worth taking a chance although this is not a race to go broke on.
1.5pts Oscar Dan Dan 6/1 (general) 2.00 Leopardstown: Lie Forrit does have some good form in handicaps over in the UK but this is a step up. Oscar Dan Dan has a G1 to his name already this season and can't be faulted apart from tipping up at Navan. I think the step up in trip will help and he can confirm the form with the Ninetieth Minute which should be enough for this.
1pt What A Friend 5/1 (Paddy Power) 2.35 Leopardstown: Not a massively creative pick and I would expect this horse to go off a bit shorter given the world and his mother will be tipping it up today. Had a good run in the Hennessy behind Denman even if he was getting 22lbs. Nicholls didn't send him over for the airmiles and although on last seasons form he has a bit to find with Cooldine it is worth noting the respective trainer comments. This is a stepping stone to bigger things for Cooldine, whereas for What a Friend this is the pinnacle of his season. Mullins won't be overly disappointed to settle for some place money today with his eye firmly on Cheltenham in March.
Hopefully will have a post later looking at football and the Welsh National. Happy punting
Sunday, 27 December 2009
On the 2nd Day of Leopardstown PP gave to me
Great day yesterday with a profit of 17.76pts bringing us to 12.87pts overall. Hopefully we can build on that today.
1pt Made in Taipan 17/2 1.25 Leopardstown (Will Hill): Looks to be a bit overpriced based on his runs this season. No disgrace in losing out by 1/2L to Big Zeb the last time out and was still in contention when falling 2 out first time out against Tranquil Sea. Ground looks to be too good for Golden Silver to shine. Not expecting much from the rest who are mostly has beens or never was horses. I won't be surprised if Tranquil Sea has the beating of our choice but with the prices so far apart I have to side with Made in Taipan.
1.5pts Some Present 13/8 1.55 Leopardstown (Stan James): I'm finding it hard to get away from this horse. Comfortably best of the rest in the Royal Bond behind Dunguib and a solid run before that in Cheltenham. Probably the Ruby factor on Fionngas is what is keeping the price so attractive.
1pt e/w Bandstand 9/2 2.15 Southwell (Paddy Power): Purely an each way play with a well regarded newcomer.
1pt Petit Robin 9/4 2.40 Kempton (general): When you can find an excuse not to back every other horse in the race you got to take whats left. Crack Away Jack should in time develop into a good chaser but jumped poorly the last day out and it is one thing to school well it's another to do it on the track flat to the boards so had to scratch him. Fix the Rib is another horse that until I see him do something special I'm not going to believe he is special and no way I would make him second favourite here. I would love to see Well Chief do well but he isn't the same horse he was before injury despite some respectably results, also he is not getting any younger. Petit Robin always runs well fresh and you could easily argue that he only got beat by Well Chief at Cheltenham because he had the courage to try to beat Master Minded. He also has good scope for improvement over the summer months and I'll gladly side with him here.
Thats all for now but I will be trying to make some sense of the handicaps during the early races and if I find anything I will post it up. Happy punting.
1pt Made in Taipan 17/2 1.25 Leopardstown (Will Hill): Looks to be a bit overpriced based on his runs this season. No disgrace in losing out by 1/2L to Big Zeb the last time out and was still in contention when falling 2 out first time out against Tranquil Sea. Ground looks to be too good for Golden Silver to shine. Not expecting much from the rest who are mostly has beens or never was horses. I won't be surprised if Tranquil Sea has the beating of our choice but with the prices so far apart I have to side with Made in Taipan.
1.5pts Some Present 13/8 1.55 Leopardstown (Stan James): I'm finding it hard to get away from this horse. Comfortably best of the rest in the Royal Bond behind Dunguib and a solid run before that in Cheltenham. Probably the Ruby factor on Fionngas is what is keeping the price so attractive.
1pt e/w Bandstand 9/2 2.15 Southwell (Paddy Power): Purely an each way play with a well regarded newcomer.
1pt Petit Robin 9/4 2.40 Kempton (general): When you can find an excuse not to back every other horse in the race you got to take whats left. Crack Away Jack should in time develop into a good chaser but jumped poorly the last day out and it is one thing to school well it's another to do it on the track flat to the boards so had to scratch him. Fix the Rib is another horse that until I see him do something special I'm not going to believe he is special and no way I would make him second favourite here. I would love to see Well Chief do well but he isn't the same horse he was before injury despite some respectably results, also he is not getting any younger. Petit Robin always runs well fresh and you could easily argue that he only got beat by Well Chief at Cheltenham because he had the courage to try to beat Master Minded. He also has good scope for improvement over the summer months and I'll gladly side with him here.
Thats all for now but I will be trying to make some sense of the handicaps during the early races and if I find anything I will post it up. Happy punting.
Saturday, 26 December 2009
Updated: On the first day of Leopardstown..
Well given that the weather has deprived me of my racing post for today I'm going to start with football. There seems to be a small bit of value about in the premiership today:
1.5pts Burnley 16/11 (expect.com): Burnley are ahead of Bolton in the table at the half way point and are still nearly 6/4 to win against them at home. Add in the fact that all but 1 of those points have come at home makes this a definite back - if anything 1.5pts is being conservative.
1.5 pts Portsmouth 3.8 (betfair): Portsmouth seem to have turned the corner and have a full strength squad heading to Upton park. West Ham on the other hand are struggling both with form and injuries. I expect Pompey to finish the year above West Ham so seeing the Hammers chalked up at 6/5 or worse means there must be value on the other side.
1pt Mosstown 19/1 (betfair): Only 1 3/4L seperated Mosstown from the 9/2 second fav on his hurdling debut in bottomless ground at Navan. On better ground he has the potential to turn around the form. Whether he can see off the odds on fav is another thing but worth a bet at these prices.
1.5pt Osana 3/1 (paddy Power): Sizing Europe is a talking horse but despite him being very impressive in his chase starts so far you have to question what he's beaten. Osana ws at least as good over hurdles and hasn't put a foot wrong yet over fences. S.E. could be a super star but I'll pay to see him prove it.
1.5pts Osana to be placed 1.82 (betfair): Not convinced by Capt Cee Bee and have this as a 2 horse race. If S.E. does turn out to be the business at least we can limit our losses with this bet.
1pt e/w Menorah 11/2 (stan james): A great e/w bet with the structure of the race.
2.5pts Go Native 9/4 (Paddy Power): I do not get the hype around Starluck - he has beaten nothing and for him to be 4/1 and shortening for this race is lunacy. Go Native was an above average Supreme winner last year and continues to improve. If I was pricing this race it would be something like 8/11 Go Native 5/4 Binocular, 10/1 Starluck and pick your price the rest.
4pts Go Native to be placed 1.89 (Betfair): See above - money for jam!
1pt e/w Madison du Berlais w/o Kauto 9/2 (Ladbrokes): Imperial Commander doesn't seem to be able to handle right-handed tracks and would ideally like a few hills thrown in. Him aside I'm unconvinced Barber Shop is anywhere near good enough. Deep Purple still has a bit to prove. M de B always improves from his first run of the season and likes the track. Even though Denman was a bit below form when M de B beat him last season the 47L's back to Alberta's Run shows it was a pretty solid run - if he is 47L's clear of Albertas Run today we'll be collecting
1.5pts Burnley 16/11 (expect.com): Burnley are ahead of Bolton in the table at the half way point and are still nearly 6/4 to win against them at home. Add in the fact that all but 1 of those points have come at home makes this a definite back - if anything 1.5pts is being conservative.
1.5 pts Portsmouth 3.8 (betfair): Portsmouth seem to have turned the corner and have a full strength squad heading to Upton park. West Ham on the other hand are struggling both with form and injuries. I expect Pompey to finish the year above West Ham so seeing the Hammers chalked up at 6/5 or worse means there must be value on the other side.
1pt Mosstown 19/1 (betfair): Only 1 3/4L seperated Mosstown from the 9/2 second fav on his hurdling debut in bottomless ground at Navan. On better ground he has the potential to turn around the form. Whether he can see off the odds on fav is another thing but worth a bet at these prices.
1.5pt Osana 3/1 (paddy Power): Sizing Europe is a talking horse but despite him being very impressive in his chase starts so far you have to question what he's beaten. Osana ws at least as good over hurdles and hasn't put a foot wrong yet over fences. S.E. could be a super star but I'll pay to see him prove it.
1.5pts Osana to be placed 1.82 (betfair): Not convinced by Capt Cee Bee and have this as a 2 horse race. If S.E. does turn out to be the business at least we can limit our losses with this bet.
1pt e/w Menorah 11/2 (stan james): A great e/w bet with the structure of the race.
2.5pts Go Native 9/4 (Paddy Power): I do not get the hype around Starluck - he has beaten nothing and for him to be 4/1 and shortening for this race is lunacy. Go Native was an above average Supreme winner last year and continues to improve. If I was pricing this race it would be something like 8/11 Go Native 5/4 Binocular, 10/1 Starluck and pick your price the rest.
4pts Go Native to be placed 1.89 (Betfair): See above - money for jam!
1pt e/w Madison du Berlais w/o Kauto 9/2 (Ladbrokes): Imperial Commander doesn't seem to be able to handle right-handed tracks and would ideally like a few hills thrown in. Him aside I'm unconvinced Barber Shop is anywhere near good enough. Deep Purple still has a bit to prove. M de B always improves from his first run of the season and likes the track. Even though Denman was a bit below form when M de B beat him last season the 47L's back to Alberta's Run shows it was a pretty solid run - if he is 47L's clear of Albertas Run today we'll be collecting
Saturday, 19 December 2009
Time to get the cars keys out
OK I haven't abandoned this I just have been struggling to keep up to date with sport in the wilds of the Australian bush. But rest assured with Christmas on the horizon I will be finding somewhere with easy access to TV internet and racingpost and intend to have daily updates from the 26th onwards - still time to recover to positive territory by the year end. Currently -4.89pts.
This post is just to highlight the lunacy in the Celtic office. They have an aertel special:
10pts Portsmouth not to be relegated @ 15/8: Everything has a price and this is not it - probably should be closer to 11/8. Everyone knows the saying that bottom at Christmas always gets relegated but Portsmouth seem to have improved a bit from their horror start and there are plenty of teams not too far ahead of them. They are still more likely than not to go down but at this price I will be raiding the piggy bank to get some of it.
This post is just to highlight the lunacy in the Celtic office. They have an aertel special:
10pts Portsmouth not to be relegated @ 15/8: Everything has a price and this is not it - probably should be closer to 11/8. Everyone knows the saying that bottom at Christmas always gets relegated but Portsmouth seem to have improved a bit from their horror start and there are plenty of teams not too far ahead of them. They are still more likely than not to go down but at this price I will be raiding the piggy bank to get some of it.
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