Monday, 28 December 2009

3rd day of Leopardstown

We edged our profits for the year up to 13.17pts yesterday thanks to the guaranteed prices offered by the bookies as both Petit Robin and Bandstand drifted from the EP's. Today looks like a tricky card with some races that will be an awful lot better for watching than for betting but we'll do our best anyway.

1pt Whatuthink 12.0 (betfair) - 1.30 Leopardstown: This is a slightly tentative choice. I narrowed the field down to 3 pretty quickly based mainly on formlines through Pandorama and Major Finnegan. I might be a bit rash in dismissing Catch Me so quickly but on a fairly shaky line through Caim Hill I put him to one side. Pandorama has done nothing wrong and is the class of the field however despite his exploits over hurdles last season he hasn't done enough over fences to justify as short a price as 5/4. He also has never raced over 3m (apart from a PTP) although Meade seems to think it will suit. Weapon's Amnesty is a favourite horse of mine and I did nibble at the early price of 7/1. That is now gone and at 6/1 I probably won't get involved again although you know the trip will be no problem and he will battle all the way to the line. Had a solid run the last time in Newcastle but will need to step up on that to win here. Whatuthink is a horse that should improve for the step up in trip the main question is his jumping which was his downfall last time out against Pandorama. He is a winter horse and with a bit of class having won a good hurdle here 2 years ago and hopefully the schooling will have worked. At 11/1 it's prob worth taking a chance although this is not a race to go broke on.

1.5pts Oscar Dan Dan 6/1 (general) 2.00 Leopardstown: Lie Forrit does have some good form in handicaps over in the UK but this is a step up. Oscar Dan Dan has a G1 to his name already this season and can't be faulted apart from tipping up at Navan. I think the step up in trip will help and he can confirm the form with the Ninetieth Minute which should be enough for this.

1pt What A Friend 5/1 (Paddy Power) 2.35 Leopardstown: Not a massively creative pick and I would expect this horse to go off a bit shorter given the world and his mother will be tipping it up today. Had a good run in the Hennessy behind Denman even if he was getting 22lbs. Nicholls didn't send him over for the airmiles and although on last seasons form he has a bit to find with Cooldine it is worth noting the respective trainer comments. This is a stepping stone to bigger things for Cooldine, whereas for What a Friend this is the pinnacle of his season. Mullins won't be overly disappointed to settle for some place money today with his eye firmly on Cheltenham in March.

Hopefully will have a post later looking at football and the Welsh National. Happy punting

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