Well given that the weather has deprived me of my racing post for today I'm going to start with football. There seems to be a small bit of value about in the premiership today:
1.5pts Burnley 16/11 (expect.com): Burnley are ahead of Bolton in the table at the half way point and are still nearly 6/4 to win against them at home. Add in the fact that all but 1 of those points have come at home makes this a definite back - if anything 1.5pts is being conservative.
1.5 pts Portsmouth 3.8 (betfair): Portsmouth seem to have turned the corner and have a full strength squad heading to Upton park. West Ham on the other hand are struggling both with form and injuries. I expect Pompey to finish the year above West Ham so seeing the Hammers chalked up at 6/5 or worse means there must be value on the other side.
1pt Mosstown 19/1 (betfair): Only 1 3/4L seperated Mosstown from the 9/2 second fav on his hurdling debut in bottomless ground at Navan. On better ground he has the potential to turn around the form. Whether he can see off the odds on fav is another thing but worth a bet at these prices.
1.5pt Osana 3/1 (paddy Power): Sizing Europe is a talking horse but despite him being very impressive in his chase starts so far you have to question what he's beaten. Osana ws at least as good over hurdles and hasn't put a foot wrong yet over fences. S.E. could be a super star but I'll pay to see him prove it.
1.5pts Osana to be placed 1.82 (betfair): Not convinced by Capt Cee Bee and have this as a 2 horse race. If S.E. does turn out to be the business at least we can limit our losses with this bet.
1pt e/w Menorah 11/2 (stan james): A great e/w bet with the structure of the race.
2.5pts Go Native 9/4 (Paddy Power): I do not get the hype around Starluck - he has beaten nothing and for him to be 4/1 and shortening for this race is lunacy. Go Native was an above average Supreme winner last year and continues to improve. If I was pricing this race it would be something like 8/11 Go Native 5/4 Binocular, 10/1 Starluck and pick your price the rest.
4pts Go Native to be placed 1.89 (Betfair): See above - money for jam!
1pt e/w Madison du Berlais w/o Kauto 9/2 (Ladbrokes): Imperial Commander doesn't seem to be able to handle right-handed tracks and would ideally like a few hills thrown in. Him aside I'm unconvinced Barber Shop is anywhere near good enough. Deep Purple still has a bit to prove. M de B always improves from his first run of the season and likes the track. Even though Denman was a bit below form when M de B beat him last season the 47L's back to Alberta's Run shows it was a pretty solid run - if he is 47L's clear of Albertas Run today we'll be collecting
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