Galway and racing of a different kind

OK today sees the first day of Galway and despite it's reputation as a bookies benefit we will be trying to make a few quid out of it for the first 2 days at least. However this week also sees the European athlethics championships take place and as usual the bookies don't really seem to know how to price it up.

We will start with the mens 400m an event which Ireland has very strong claims for a medal with David Gillick. As a result the Irish bookies seem to have skewed their prices a bit towards him. He was originally installed as 5/2 joint favourite with Boyles but some sort of sense seems to be coming to the market now with Jonathon Borlee hardening into 2/1 favourite although that still looks a little too big for me with him having run nearly 2/10ths of a second faster than any other European this year. In fact you could argue that Gillick should only be 3rd fav behind his training partner Rooney who definitely has the ability to pull a big run out of the bag here and take home the title. I see Borlee just holding him off though with Gillick getting up for the bronze.

1pt Borlee 2/1 (general)

The 100m sees convicted drugs cheat Chambers try to taint another championship by defeating the fastest white man in the world ever Lemaitre. Lemaitre has been running faster this year and hopefully for the sake of the Championship as well as the blog he can deliver on the European stage. The early 2/1 with ladbrokes has been taken but the 7/4 generally available still looks tempting

1pt Lemaitre 7/4

Some people would be suspicious about a woman who hasn't raced for over 2 years turning up at a track as a 30 year old and running over 2/10ths of a second faster than she has ever run before and over 4/10ths faster than her 2007 SB. However these are only the people who are too busy beating a path to bet365's door to lump on to her denying Laura Turner gold in the womens 100m

2pts Neumiarzhystkaya (try spelling that on a betting slip!) 7/4

And now back to Galway - Galway is a tight right handed track and as the ground dries out position is going to be important with prominent racers being favoured on the national hunt course.

In the first Fingal Rock does look to have a bit of class about him and the mare's allowance should ensure that if he is ridden prominently he can turn around form with Jerry Agent. However Jerrys Agent to be placed looks the bet of the race to me. This horse likes to make the running and the others will have to work hard to peg him back even allowing for the stiff uphill finish.
1.5pts Jerrys Agent to place (Betfair SP)

In the handicap hurdle Acclaimed looks like a progressive sort with a tendancy to track the leaders. I think he can improve again and taek advantage of a relatively light weight.

0.75pts e/w Acclaimed 12/1 (ladbrokes)

Given Welds record in the 7f maiden it isn't surprising to see A Word Apart as the favourite but I struggle to believe he should be so much ahead of Tashqeel in the betting. Tashqeel has shortened this morning but I think he will drift again once betting opens on course. The value each way on him is also phenomenal with several of the bookies paying 1/4 on all races today. I expect him to be at least 3s at the off but I will take the 11/4 now just in case with a bookies offering both 1/4 odds and best price guarantee

1pt e/w Tashqeel (Ladbrokes)

0.5pts e/w Lucky at Last 12/1 (Ladbrokes,PP) : has the right profile here and should run well.

Can't find anything in the next 2 races worth parting with any cash for. In the last though it may be worth a small bet on Apt Manor delivering for the Mullins after a long lay off

0.5pts Apt Manor 4/1 (VC, Stan James)

Back home - to the home of golf

OK not a fantastic WC and I didn't really get to post much during it although for the first week that was probably a blessing in disguise. I'm back home now temporarily so I'm hoping to put regular updates up for the next 2 weeks. After that I will total the P&L for the year and reset to 0 for the new season. I will be on the move for the new season so if there is not much posted during August you know why but from Champion Stakes day in September onwards there will be at least one post each weekend and hopefully regular midweek posts for any key race meetings and midweek football. So on to the golf

I have to start with Tiger. He's played at 2 Opens here winning in a majors record of -19 one year and with a -14 total (5 shots clear) the other. He claims its his favourite course in the world and it is perfectly suited to his game so long as he can get a bit of confidence in his putting. He also has more or less the ideal tee time of 9.09am tomorrow when according to the Met Office the wind should be at its lowest and he should be completing his round before the visibility starts deteriorating.

Five-day forecast: St Andrews

Date	Time	Weather	Temp	Wind			Visibility
				Dir	Speed	Gust
Wed 14 Jul	2200		13 °C	NNE	20 mph		Moderate
Thu 15 Jul	0100		13 °C	NNE	17 mph		Good
	0400		13 °C	NNE	13 mph		Poor
	0700		13 °C	NE	9 mph		Poor
	1000		14 °C	E	3 mph		Good
	1300		17 °C	S	2 mph	15 mph	Poor
	1600		19 °C	SSW	12 mph	24 mph	Poor
	1900		18 °C	SSW	14 mph		Very Good
	Night		11 °C	S	15 mph		Poor

Based on this the 7/1 that Hills were offering looks lunacy. Unfortunately that is gone now but there is still plenty of value in the 13/2 still available.

1.5pts Woods to win 13/2 (WH, Skybet, Coral)

Also given he has the ideal conditions on day one there is no harm in having a small bet on him to be first round leader. In previous St. Andrews opens he has started with 66 and 67. Anyone looking to back other players in this market should consult the forecast above and look for players teeing off at similar times to Tiger.
0.5pts Woods to be first round leader 18/1 (extrabet)

Paddy Power are paying 7 places, Boyles are paying 8 and 888sport are paying 6 at 1/3 of the odds so plenty of e/w value about this weekend. It might seem like overkill with the number of bets I put up but trust me the value you get on the place part of these bets is significant for example McIlroy is 9/2 on betfair for a top 5 finish yet you are getting 5/1 with an extra place being paid which prob should be a shade under 4/1

0.5pts e/w Rory McIlroy 15/1 (888sport)
0.5pts e/w Els 18/1 (88sport)
0.5pts e/w McDowell 33/1 (Powers)
0.25pts e/w Lowry 125/1 (888sport)
0.2pts e/w Chris Wood 80/1 (Paddy Power)

Also there are some interesting bets on the spreads where the spread supremacies just seem a little out of line with the fixed odds betting.

Buy Goggins/Roberts @3 for 0.1pts
Buy Kjeldson/Faldo @ 14 for 0.05pts
Buy Goydos/Hugo @ 6 for 0.1pts

For example in the Goydos Hugo match up above Goydos would be 1.48 in a match bet. In the Watney Wilson match up Watney would be 1.9 - that supremacy is also 6 which means either Goydos is huge value or Wilson is huge value or both. I think it is Goydos that is the best value here.