Back home - to the home of golf

OK not a fantastic WC and I didn't really get to post much during it although for the first week that was probably a blessing in disguise. I'm back home now temporarily so I'm hoping to put regular updates up for the next 2 weeks. After that I will total the P&L for the year and reset to 0 for the new season. I will be on the move for the new season so if there is not much posted during August you know why but from Champion Stakes day in September onwards there will be at least one post each weekend and hopefully regular midweek posts for any key race meetings and midweek football. So on to the golf

I have to start with Tiger. He's played at 2 Opens here winning in a majors record of -19 one year and with a -14 total (5 shots clear) the other. He claims its his favourite course in the world and it is perfectly suited to his game so long as he can get a bit of confidence in his putting. He also has more or less the ideal tee time of 9.09am tomorrow when according to the Met Office the wind should be at its lowest and he should be completing his round before the visibility starts deteriorating.

Five-day forecast: St Andrews

Date	Time	Weather	Temp	Wind			Visibility
				Dir	Speed	Gust
Wed 14 Jul	2200		13 °C	NNE	20 mph		Moderate
Thu 15 Jul	0100		13 °C	NNE	17 mph		Good
	0400		13 °C	NNE	13 mph		Poor
	0700		13 °C	NE	9 mph		Poor
	1000		14 °C	E	3 mph		Good
	1300		17 °C	S	2 mph	15 mph	Poor
	1600		19 °C	SSW	12 mph	24 mph	Poor
	1900		18 °C	SSW	14 mph		Very Good
	Night		11 °C	S	15 mph		Poor

Based on this the 7/1 that Hills were offering looks lunacy. Unfortunately that is gone now but there is still plenty of value in the 13/2 still available.

1.5pts Woods to win 13/2 (WH, Skybet, Coral)

Also given he has the ideal conditions on day one there is no harm in having a small bet on him to be first round leader. In previous St. Andrews opens he has started with 66 and 67. Anyone looking to back other players in this market should consult the forecast above and look for players teeing off at similar times to Tiger.
0.5pts Woods to be first round leader 18/1 (extrabet)

Paddy Power are paying 7 places, Boyles are paying 8 and 888sport are paying 6 at 1/3 of the odds so plenty of e/w value about this weekend. It might seem like overkill with the number of bets I put up but trust me the value you get on the place part of these bets is significant for example McIlroy is 9/2 on betfair for a top 5 finish yet you are getting 5/1 with an extra place being paid which prob should be a shade under 4/1

0.5pts e/w Rory McIlroy 15/1 (888sport)
0.5pts e/w Els 18/1 (88sport)
0.5pts e/w McDowell 33/1 (Powers)
0.25pts e/w Lowry 125/1 (888sport)
0.2pts e/w Chris Wood 80/1 (Paddy Power)

Also there are some interesting bets on the spreads where the spread supremacies just seem a little out of line with the fixed odds betting.

Buy Goggins/Roberts @3 for 0.1pts
Buy Kjeldson/Faldo @ 14 for 0.05pts
Buy Goydos/Hugo @ 6 for 0.1pts

For example in the Goydos Hugo match up above Goydos would be 1.48 in a match bet. In the Watney Wilson match up Watney would be 1.9 - that supremacy is also 6 which means either Goydos is huge value or Wilson is huge value or both. I think it is Goydos that is the best value here.