OK today sees the first day of Galway and despite it's reputation as a bookies benefit we will be trying to make a few quid out of it for the first 2 days at least. However this week also sees the European athlethics championships take place and as usual the bookies don't really seem to know how to price it up.
We will start with the mens 400m an event which Ireland has very strong claims for a medal with David Gillick. As a result the Irish bookies seem to have skewed their prices a bit towards him. He was originally installed as 5/2 joint favourite with Boyles but some sort of sense seems to be coming to the market now with Jonathon Borlee hardening into 2/1 favourite although that still looks a little too big for me with him having run nearly 2/10ths of a second faster than any other European this year. In fact you could argue that Gillick should only be 3rd fav behind his training partner Rooney who definitely has the ability to pull a big run out of the bag here and take home the title. I see Borlee just holding him off though with Gillick getting up for the bronze.
1pt Borlee 2/1 (general)
The 100m sees convicted drugs cheat Chambers try to taint another championship by defeating the fastest white man in the world ever Lemaitre. Lemaitre has been running faster this year and hopefully for the sake of the Championship as well as the blog he can deliver on the European stage. The early 2/1 with ladbrokes has been taken but the 7/4 generally available still looks tempting
1pt Lemaitre 7/4
Some people would be suspicious about a woman who hasn't raced for over 2 years turning up at a track as a 30 year old and running over 2/10ths of a second faster than she has ever run before and over 4/10ths faster than her 2007 SB. However these are only the people who are too busy beating a path to bet365's door to lump on to her denying Laura Turner gold in the womens 100m
2pts Neumiarzhystkaya (try spelling that on a betting slip!) 7/4
And now back to Galway - Galway is a tight right handed track and as the ground dries out position is going to be important with prominent racers being favoured on the national hunt course.
In the first Fingal Rock does look to have a bit of class about him and the mare's allowance should ensure that if he is ridden prominently he can turn around form with Jerry Agent. However Jerrys Agent to be placed looks the bet of the race to me. This horse likes to make the running and the others will have to work hard to peg him back even allowing for the stiff uphill finish.
1.5pts Jerrys Agent to place (Betfair SP)
In the handicap hurdle Acclaimed looks like a progressive sort with a tendancy to track the leaders. I think he can improve again and taek advantage of a relatively light weight.
0.75pts e/w Acclaimed 12/1 (ladbrokes)
Given Welds record in the 7f maiden it isn't surprising to see A Word Apart as the favourite but I struggle to believe he should be so much ahead of Tashqeel in the betting. Tashqeel has shortened this morning but I think he will drift again once betting opens on course. The value each way on him is also phenomenal with several of the bookies paying 1/4 on all races today. I expect him to be at least 3s at the off but I will take the 11/4 now just in case with a bookies offering both 1/4 odds and best price guarantee
1pt e/w Tashqeel (Ladbrokes)
0.5pts e/w Lucky at Last 12/1 (Ladbrokes,PP) : has the right profile here and should run well.
Can't find anything in the next 2 races worth parting with any cash for. In the last though it may be worth a small bet on Apt Manor delivering for the Mullins after a long lay off
0.5pts Apt Manor 4/1 (VC, Stan James)
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