In the lower leagues I think sometimes people don't seem to realise that there is not the same spread in terms of ability between top and bottom as you often find in the premiership. Which means people seem to over-estimate the chances of a team fighting for the playoffs of winning a game versus some relegation fodder due to being anchored to the type of price you would get on a Liverpool v Blackburn game. I haven't gotten around to doin g the numbers on this yet but just from the amount of mis-pricings you see inthe lower leagues I think this has to be one of the explanations. More or less sums up all the bets below. Anyway on to the bets!
1pt Bournemouth 6/4 (Paddy POwer)
1pt Bury 3.9 (betfair)
1pt Rochdale 4.6(betfair)
1pt Wycombe 4.2(betfair)
0.5pt Tranmere 5.5(betfair)
0.5pt Exeter 9/2(lads)
1pt Model County Lass 16/1(Lads) Navan 2.45: No stand out performer in this race and her less fashionable connections are reflected in the price not her true ability
Saturday, 24 September 2011
Saturday Football
OK the premiership is pretty well priced this week although theres still 1 or 2 bits of value.
3pts Arsenal 4/9 (lads); Not far off where I had this priced up but a lot of Asian money is going to mean Arsenal will quite possibly be 4/11 at the off.
1pt Stoke 6/1 (paddy power): United continue to be over-rated away from home. Stoke did Liverpool at home already and could spring another shock here. Backing them -1 isn't a terrible bet either.
Spurs were a massive bet at evens but pretty sure thats all long gone.
2pts Birmingham 4/5 (lads): Another game where the pro money is going to drive the price a lot lower.
1pt Bristol City 2.84 (betfair): A little too big although its quite marginal.
2pts Burnley 3.65(betfair): Seems a massive over-reaction to these 2 teams respective starts to the season. Southampton are the better team but not by a huge amount so hopefully Burnley can get their season up and running today.
1pt Coventry (at betfair price just at the off): Coventry are too big already but will be drifting to the off so hold off on backing them just yet!
1.5pts Derby 2.72(betfair): You'd think beating Forest with 10 men would get them a bit of respect but no still being massively under-rated so we'll keep backing them!
1pt Doncaster 6/4 (Lads): Worst team in the division but this Palace team aren't far ahead
1.5pt Ispwich 4/1(general): Not much between these teams imo. So think 4/1 is a crazy price for Ipswich.
Hope to have more later for lower leagues and Europe and maybe a few horses
3pts Arsenal 4/9 (lads); Not far off where I had this priced up but a lot of Asian money is going to mean Arsenal will quite possibly be 4/11 at the off.
1pt Stoke 6/1 (paddy power): United continue to be over-rated away from home. Stoke did Liverpool at home already and could spring another shock here. Backing them -1 isn't a terrible bet either.
Spurs were a massive bet at evens but pretty sure thats all long gone.
2pts Birmingham 4/5 (lads): Another game where the pro money is going to drive the price a lot lower.
1pt Bristol City 2.84 (betfair): A little too big although its quite marginal.
2pts Burnley 3.65(betfair): Seems a massive over-reaction to these 2 teams respective starts to the season. Southampton are the better team but not by a huge amount so hopefully Burnley can get their season up and running today.
1pt Coventry (at betfair price just at the off): Coventry are too big already but will be drifting to the off so hold off on backing them just yet!
1.5pts Derby 2.72(betfair): You'd think beating Forest with 10 men would get them a bit of respect but no still being massively under-rated so we'll keep backing them!
1pt Doncaster 6/4 (Lads): Worst team in the division but this Palace team aren't far ahead
1.5pt Ispwich 4/1(general): Not much between these teams imo. So think 4/1 is a crazy price for Ipswich.
Hope to have more later for lower leagues and Europe and maybe a few horses
Saturday, 10 September 2011
Premiership Saturday
OK going to start off with some football for the day but firstly a quick explanation of the football bets here. There are going to be 3 types of football bets I put up here:
1. Bets based on where the match odds are out of line with the long term expectations of a team. Given the betting on where each team will finish the season points/position wise you can back out an implied price for each game they play. Sometimes these prices will be off from the prices offered due to people over-reacting to short-term events (see Arsenal and Man U today)
2. Bets based on where a lot of syndicate money is causing a price to contract in Asia but the effect hasn't filtered through to Europe yet. Sometimes you don't need to be the smartest man in the room you just need to copy what he is doing!
3. Bets based of other quirks and anomalies.
The 3 group of bets I will generally give an explanation of the logic behind the bet but for the first 2 the logic is always the same so I'll not constantly repeat myself.
So on to today:
2pts Arsenal to be winning at HT 10/11 (B365, Stan James): According to their long run expectations Arsenal should be about 2/7 to win this game not the 2/5 they are currently marked up at which makes them value in pretty much every market. An early goal could set them up for a comfortable win here. If it is goalless at HT the second half it might not actually be an advantage for them to be at home in the second half. The Asian Handicap is also an attractive way to get them onside at close to evns.
1pt Stoke @3.75 (betfair): Have them at about 3.45 for this and they will provide a real test to the Liverpool revolution.
1.5pts Wolves @15/8 (Ladbrokes): Asian money will drive this lower by the off.
3pts liability Lay Man Utd 1.45 (Betfair): This has to be a wrong price. My sheet suggests 3/5 is a fairer price and I think that might even be a bit low. 1.45 implies Man U will win this game 69% of the time. Last season away from home they won 5 from 19 or 26% - those wins coming against the giants of Blackpool, West Ham, Wigan, West Brom and Stoke. Bolton are also a very solid team at home losing only 4 times last season and they didn't exactly lie down against City in a 3-2 defeat earlier this season.
I hope to be back later with some lower league bets and maybe a couple of horses. Blue Bunting looked a cracking ew bet at 4s. That price is gone now but even the bit of 7/2 still looks good for a point ew. The favourite is over-hyped and BB is my 3yo of the season. Looks like she has everything and hopefully she can add her 3rd classic of the season.
1. Bets based on where the match odds are out of line with the long term expectations of a team. Given the betting on where each team will finish the season points/position wise you can back out an implied price for each game they play. Sometimes these prices will be off from the prices offered due to people over-reacting to short-term events (see Arsenal and Man U today)
2. Bets based on where a lot of syndicate money is causing a price to contract in Asia but the effect hasn't filtered through to Europe yet. Sometimes you don't need to be the smartest man in the room you just need to copy what he is doing!
3. Bets based of other quirks and anomalies.
The 3 group of bets I will generally give an explanation of the logic behind the bet but for the first 2 the logic is always the same so I'll not constantly repeat myself.
So on to today:
2pts Arsenal to be winning at HT 10/11 (B365, Stan James): According to their long run expectations Arsenal should be about 2/7 to win this game not the 2/5 they are currently marked up at which makes them value in pretty much every market. An early goal could set them up for a comfortable win here. If it is goalless at HT the second half it might not actually be an advantage for them to be at home in the second half. The Asian Handicap is also an attractive way to get them onside at close to evns.
1pt Stoke @3.75 (betfair): Have them at about 3.45 for this and they will provide a real test to the Liverpool revolution.
1.5pts Wolves @15/8 (Ladbrokes): Asian money will drive this lower by the off.
3pts liability Lay Man Utd 1.45 (Betfair): This has to be a wrong price. My sheet suggests 3/5 is a fairer price and I think that might even be a bit low. 1.45 implies Man U will win this game 69% of the time. Last season away from home they won 5 from 19 or 26% - those wins coming against the giants of Blackpool, West Ham, Wigan, West Brom and Stoke. Bolton are also a very solid team at home losing only 4 times last season and they didn't exactly lie down against City in a 3-2 defeat earlier this season.
I hope to be back later with some lower league bets and maybe a couple of horses. Blue Bunting looked a cracking ew bet at 4s. That price is gone now but even the bit of 7/2 still looks good for a point ew. The favourite is over-hyped and BB is my 3yo of the season. Looks like she has everything and hopefully she can add her 3rd classic of the season.
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