Premiership Saturday

OK going to start off with some football for the day but firstly a quick explanation of the football bets here. There are going to be 3 types of football bets I put up here:

1. Bets based on where the match odds are out of line with the long term expectations of a team. Given the betting on where each team will finish the season points/position wise you can back out an implied price for each game they play. Sometimes these prices will be off from the prices offered due to people over-reacting to short-term events (see Arsenal and Man U today)

2. Bets based on where a lot of syndicate money is causing a price to contract in Asia but the effect hasn't filtered through to Europe yet. Sometimes you don't need to be the smartest man in the room you just need to copy what he is doing!

3. Bets based of other quirks and anomalies.

The 3 group of bets I will generally give an explanation of the logic behind the bet but for the first 2 the logic is always the same so I'll not constantly repeat myself.


So on to today:

2pts Arsenal to be winning at HT 10/11 (B365, Stan James): According to their long run expectations Arsenal should be about 2/7 to win this game not the 2/5 they are currently marked up at which makes them value in pretty much every market. An early goal could set them up for a comfortable win here. If it is goalless at HT the second half it might not actually be an advantage for them to be at home in the second half. The Asian Handicap is also an attractive way to get them onside at close to evns.

1pt Stoke @3.75 (betfair): Have them at about 3.45 for this and they will provide a real test to the Liverpool revolution.

1.5pts Wolves @15/8 (Ladbrokes): Asian money will drive this lower by the off.

3pts liability Lay Man Utd 1.45 (Betfair): This has to be a wrong price. My sheet suggests 3/5 is a fairer price and I think that might even be a bit low. 1.45 implies Man U will win this game 69% of the time. Last season away from home they won 5 from 19 or 26% - those wins coming against the giants of Blackpool, West Ham, Wigan, West Brom and Stoke. Bolton are also a very solid team at home losing only 4 times last season and they didn't exactly lie down against City in a 3-2 defeat earlier this season.

I hope to be back later with some lower league bets and maybe a couple of horses. Blue Bunting looked a cracking ew bet at 4s. That price is gone now but even the bit of 7/2 still looks good for a point ew. The favourite is over-hyped and BB is my 3yo of the season. Looks like she has everything and hopefully she can add her 3rd classic of the season.