Well somehow back ahead for the festival after a pretty solid day today. Tomorrow is a pretty tricky day although we have another paddy power special to add some spice to our day (or variance as other people call it).
Jewson:
Actually coming out with a different answer than I thought I would coming into this which is kind of unfortunate as I've come to the conclusion that Cristal Bonus (my ante-post bet) probably won't win. Ran a great race the last day but although he's had a pretty light campaign so far he burned up the track the last day and 19 days is not long enough to recover from that. Peddlars Cross is obviously the best horse in the race but given his build up and last minute change of plans its hard to trust he is going to be right for this - actually tempted to lay him for a place because you would hop with such a good horse if things don't seem to be going right the jockey won't be overly hard on him. Sir Des Champs is a horse that looks like he can run really fast - the only problem is he hasn't really had to so far over fences and I would like to see him having been tested a bit more in the run up to this if I was going to back him at 7/2. Champion Court won here over 2m5f on New Years Day but just over a length back from him that day giving away 3lb was Solix. Would be pretty confident Solix will improve past him tomorrow and given the form the rest of the stable is in I would be surprised if the 8/1 is still available for long. Giving 2lbs to Carlito Brigante was too much for him last year running a creditable 5th in the Coral Cup and has a win and a 2nd to CC at the course since.
1pt e/w Solix 8/1
Pertemps:
Not a race I'll be getting massively involved in Buena Vista is too old for the hat-trick and our father has plenty of weight...might side with course and distance winner Houblon des Obeuax at a big price. Still a 5 year old so hopefully still improving. Didn't run well last year in the triumph but hopefully that was just an off day and not an aversion to large fields, after a win here from Kayf Aramis in the winter he should be in good form for this.
0.5pts ew Houblon des Obeaux 40/1
Ryanair:
Tempted to take the lazy option and just put up Great Endevour at a big price before everyone else tips him in the morning and his price collapses but much and all as I like him and think he'll run into a place - I still think he'll find 1 or 2 too good for him. People always talk about the Cheltenham hill and how tough it is but what a lot of people don't realise is a lot of the time its going down the hill and not up it that does for a lot of horses. 3 of the horse here fall into that bracket - Riverside Theatre, Medermit and Somersby, expect all of them to come under pressure going down the hill to put them in a position they can't win from and then stay on up the hill to look like unlucky losers - RT prob has the best chance of being quick enough to make up lost ground and make the frame. Alberta's Run is too old. Rubi Light has improved since last year when he came third but this looks a tougher task than that which leaves Noble Prince who won the Jewson last year and spent the winter just being touched off by Big Zeb......however this all overlooks the best horse in the race - last years Arkle winner Captain Chris. He holds pretty much all of these on any known form and if you throw out his last run where he obviously wasn't right it actually doesn't look like that bad a season. He fell when he had Medermit (half his price) beaten first time out, had Somersby behind him then in the King George over a trip and course that would be a lot more to Somersbys liking. Yes he might not be right but if he is 14/1 is going to look a monster price.
1.5pts win Captain Chris
World Hurdle:
I've looked through the trends on this race and it seems the strongest trend over the last few years is to back whichever horse is called Big Bucks. However in what is his toughest test yet Paddy Power are giving us our money back if we back a horse to come second to him (e100max) so basically want to get plenty of each way cash down on those likely to make the frame so will probably be looking to keep Thousand Stars, Oscar Whisky and So Young on side. Oscar is the most likely to turn over Big Bucks but has never raced over 3m before which makes me nervous. Thousand Stars won over 3m2f in France and win a few extra yards would have beaten Oscar Whisky in Aintree over 2m4f. Does most of her racing over 2m but trip is definitelywithin her grasp. So Young wasn't far off Rock on Ruby in the Neptune last year and with a similar level of improvement could be the surprise package here. Giving up a lot of value to take the PP price on her though unfortunately!
If I find anything in the last 2 handicaps I'll tweet it tomorrow. Bedtime now!
Wednesday, 14 March 2012
Tuesday, 13 March 2012
Half time in Istanbul
Well if last night was Christmass eve then this morning a few of us woke up with sacks of coal at the bottom of our beds! Still 3 days to make it all back though!
In the first Allee Garde prob has the best single piece of form in coming 3rd to Last Installment (beaten a hd by First Lieutenant) but think he might lack the experience here and as with most of these horses it is hard to tell if the extra mile is an advantage or disadvantage, should be suited by ground but I would prefer side with a horse with a little extra experience in Teaforthree who ran Join Together to 1 1/2ls here back in November and has had a couple of easy wins either side of his Stephens Day flop at Kempton. Would be big against Harry the Viking who has 2 chase starts in 6 runners fields..this is a completely different proposition.
1pt e/w TeaforThree @7/1
Neptune Novices:
Not on happy ground here - I haven't seen Simonsigs defeat to Fingal Bay so I am relying on other peoples word that he seemed to lack moral courage and just surrendered when challenged..if that is the case I couldn't back him at any price not to talk about 5/2 for this. Unfortunately the best way of opposing him seems to come in the form of a Noel Meade horse which given Meade has a similar Cheltenham record to sobriety doesnt' fill me with a huge amount of confidence. That said Monkslands destruction of Lyreen Legend is a pretty impressive piece of form and if he goes on the ground we could be in for something special. Of the rest Beneficient probably doesn't get the recognition he deserves for his win the last day and could play a part in the end at a big price.
1.5pts win Monksland 11/2
0.5pts place Beneficient 6.2
RSA:
Not entirely convinced that Grand Crus is going to properly see out this trip - up against 2 battle-hardened warriors here on their favourite track and think there are enough reasons to leave him alone at 13/8. Always been a fan of First Lieutenant and can't really judge him off his early season form where I think the trainer messed him around a bit and over-raced him trying to get jumping experience into him. Been given a break since and should be close to his best tomorrow.....that said my preference is actually for Bobs Worth. Another horse who hasn't been seen at his best yet this season and was very impressive in his first race back after an operation when chasing home Invictus a few weeks back. He has course form figures of 111 and I'll be backing him to add a 4th 1 to that tomorrow.
1.5pts e/w Bobs Worth best morning price
Champion Chase:
To start with Big Zeb is too old and in decline, also Sizing is older than he seems and although i think it will be next season before we see any decline in him it has to be remembered he comes here just 5 weeks after running Big Zeb into the ground in the mud in Punchestown which is just on the cusp of most horses recovery time. Looking through the field there is not much strength in depth and only really leaves Finians Rainbow who looks nailed on for a place and I'd be hopefully he can upset the favourite. Ran a decent 2nd in the Arkle last year and seems to have continued his improvement this year (like his jumping a lot more now). He travels well and if Sizing is not on top form I think he will capitalize.
2pts e/w Finians Rainbow 5/1
Coral Cup:
Looking at previous trends Cape Dutch looks like a good way of opposing hype horse Balgarry and Poole Master and the great but over-burdened top weight Get me out of Here
0.75pts e/w Cape Dutch 16/1
Fred Winter:
In a minefield of plot horses I fully accept that I will inevitable lose in this race to some nag running 3 stone above any known form but at 16/1 its hard to ignore the proven form of Edeymi. 3rd behind Darroun and Hisaabat at Leopardstown being a pretty impressive performance.
Champion Bumper:
Best adivce I can give here is turn off the laptop, turn off the tv and go have a pint...you're not missing much value here.
In the first Allee Garde prob has the best single piece of form in coming 3rd to Last Installment (beaten a hd by First Lieutenant) but think he might lack the experience here and as with most of these horses it is hard to tell if the extra mile is an advantage or disadvantage, should be suited by ground but I would prefer side with a horse with a little extra experience in Teaforthree who ran Join Together to 1 1/2ls here back in November and has had a couple of easy wins either side of his Stephens Day flop at Kempton. Would be big against Harry the Viking who has 2 chase starts in 6 runners fields..this is a completely different proposition.
1pt e/w TeaforThree @7/1
Neptune Novices:
Not on happy ground here - I haven't seen Simonsigs defeat to Fingal Bay so I am relying on other peoples word that he seemed to lack moral courage and just surrendered when challenged..if that is the case I couldn't back him at any price not to talk about 5/2 for this. Unfortunately the best way of opposing him seems to come in the form of a Noel Meade horse which given Meade has a similar Cheltenham record to sobriety doesnt' fill me with a huge amount of confidence. That said Monkslands destruction of Lyreen Legend is a pretty impressive piece of form and if he goes on the ground we could be in for something special. Of the rest Beneficient probably doesn't get the recognition he deserves for his win the last day and could play a part in the end at a big price.
1.5pts win Monksland 11/2
0.5pts place Beneficient 6.2
RSA:
Not entirely convinced that Grand Crus is going to properly see out this trip - up against 2 battle-hardened warriors here on their favourite track and think there are enough reasons to leave him alone at 13/8. Always been a fan of First Lieutenant and can't really judge him off his early season form where I think the trainer messed him around a bit and over-raced him trying to get jumping experience into him. Been given a break since and should be close to his best tomorrow.....that said my preference is actually for Bobs Worth. Another horse who hasn't been seen at his best yet this season and was very impressive in his first race back after an operation when chasing home Invictus a few weeks back. He has course form figures of 111 and I'll be backing him to add a 4th 1 to that tomorrow.
1.5pts e/w Bobs Worth best morning price
Champion Chase:
To start with Big Zeb is too old and in decline, also Sizing is older than he seems and although i think it will be next season before we see any decline in him it has to be remembered he comes here just 5 weeks after running Big Zeb into the ground in the mud in Punchestown which is just on the cusp of most horses recovery time. Looking through the field there is not much strength in depth and only really leaves Finians Rainbow who looks nailed on for a place and I'd be hopefully he can upset the favourite. Ran a decent 2nd in the Arkle last year and seems to have continued his improvement this year (like his jumping a lot more now). He travels well and if Sizing is not on top form I think he will capitalize.
2pts e/w Finians Rainbow 5/1
Coral Cup:
Looking at previous trends Cape Dutch looks like a good way of opposing hype horse Balgarry and Poole Master and the great but over-burdened top weight Get me out of Here
0.75pts e/w Cape Dutch 16/1
Fred Winter:
In a minefield of plot horses I fully accept that I will inevitable lose in this race to some nag running 3 stone above any known form but at 16/1 its hard to ignore the proven form of Edeymi. 3rd behind Darroun and Hisaabat at Leopardstown being a pretty impressive performance.
Champion Bumper:
Best adivce I can give here is turn off the laptop, turn off the tv and go have a pint...you're not missing much value here.
Monday, 12 March 2012
A very special start
Well, its been a while but the Monday before Cheltenham - an adults equivalent of Christmas eve is here again so a few short thoughts on tomorrow's racing. My betting strategy for the first 2 races has been determined completely by 2 fantastic specials the bookies are giving and then after that I'll try and sift out some value in the later races.
Supreme Novices:
Boyle's have a shops only special for this - money back on losers if an Irish trained horse wins (max e200) this is roughly a 40% edge on any english trained runner you back so I've concentrated mainly on them. Talentwise Colour Squadron is possibly the pick of the bunch but he has too many quirks between running through hurdles and running sideways to be taken seriously in a field this size adn my pick would be Montbazon who was a length second to him the first time they met and won easily when CS crashed out the last day. His trainer couldn't be happier with his improvement since then the only downside being his broadcasting this to the world and subsequently causing his price to tumble. Still happy enough to take the 7s though and can't see him being far off. I'll also be having a little saver on Tetlami at 14s - not had the most conventional build up having being off course for 20 months he came back with 2 good hurldes wins and then had a run in a bumper a few weeks back to get him right for this. Not a huge fan of Darlan - his fall the last day combined with the heavy work he made of beating some average horses on his only other visit to Prestbury park being enough to put me off. I have a feeling Cinders and Ashes might prove better on flat tracks in time and might be one to keep in mind for Aintree if he finishes mid division here.
Arkle:
This time its Paddy Power who have lost their minds - money back if Sprinter Sacre wins for a 50% edge! SS looks pretty solid but this is a very classy field and he is up against the last 2 supreme winners both of whom save all of their best form for Cheltenham. SS on the other hand gurgled coming up the hill last year and a wind op may or may not have sorted that problem. If it has he's going to be tough to beat but I think even if he does win he's not going to do this without knowing he's been in a fight. Al Ferof and Menorah are both decent value (despite the latters sometimes erratic jumping) to get in the mix here. Not a huge fan of Cue Card. Found wanting here last year and the fact that his entire season he has raced at 2m4f is not something I would be a fan off. Suggests connections think he either lacks a bit of toe or needs an extra second at his jumps both of which are enough to exclude him from our calculations.
JLT Chase:
No massive opinions here...based on trends Billie Magern should be the pick but really couldn't back him given the size of his defeats including 20+ls to Quantativeeassing. Fruity O'Rooney meets a lot of the trends and looks a more solid option for a small interest. Hard to see quantitveeasing not placing but carrying a lot a weight to win it.
Champion Hurdle:
Hurricane fly looks the best hurdler since Istabraq and is hard to oppose here. Zarkander could have the makings of a superstar too but i think this may just have come too soon for him. Not much between the rest. Think the best bet here might be
1.5pts 3/1 on Zarkander w/o the fav (Paddy Power)
Cross Country:
Seem to be the only person who actually likes this race but its great for betting on. Course form outweights pretty much everything. Weights probably have more impact that most people claim but you could probably back the first 6 in the market e/w blind and have a decent chance of making a profit. The 2 for me are Uncle Junior and Sizing Australia.
1pt e/w Uncle Junior 9/2 (888sport)
1pt e/w Sizing Australia 5/1 (Lads)
Mares race:
Again Quevega looks to dominate this. Some value trying to pick a place though especially if you have a bet365 a/c where they are paying 4 places. Shop DJ seems to be on an upward curve winning a G3 comfortably at the end of last season and then putting in some good performances over fences this season. My concern would be that she hasn't had a run back over hurdles yet and might be a bit big at her jumps tomorrow - 20/1 is probably enough recompense for that though.
1.5pts e/w Shop DJ 20/1 (Lads)
Supreme Novices:
Boyle's have a shops only special for this - money back on losers if an Irish trained horse wins (max e200) this is roughly a 40% edge on any english trained runner you back so I've concentrated mainly on them. Talentwise Colour Squadron is possibly the pick of the bunch but he has too many quirks between running through hurdles and running sideways to be taken seriously in a field this size adn my pick would be Montbazon who was a length second to him the first time they met and won easily when CS crashed out the last day. His trainer couldn't be happier with his improvement since then the only downside being his broadcasting this to the world and subsequently causing his price to tumble. Still happy enough to take the 7s though and can't see him being far off. I'll also be having a little saver on Tetlami at 14s - not had the most conventional build up having being off course for 20 months he came back with 2 good hurldes wins and then had a run in a bumper a few weeks back to get him right for this. Not a huge fan of Darlan - his fall the last day combined with the heavy work he made of beating some average horses on his only other visit to Prestbury park being enough to put me off. I have a feeling Cinders and Ashes might prove better on flat tracks in time and might be one to keep in mind for Aintree if he finishes mid division here.
Arkle:
This time its Paddy Power who have lost their minds - money back if Sprinter Sacre wins for a 50% edge! SS looks pretty solid but this is a very classy field and he is up against the last 2 supreme winners both of whom save all of their best form for Cheltenham. SS on the other hand gurgled coming up the hill last year and a wind op may or may not have sorted that problem. If it has he's going to be tough to beat but I think even if he does win he's not going to do this without knowing he's been in a fight. Al Ferof and Menorah are both decent value (despite the latters sometimes erratic jumping) to get in the mix here. Not a huge fan of Cue Card. Found wanting here last year and the fact that his entire season he has raced at 2m4f is not something I would be a fan off. Suggests connections think he either lacks a bit of toe or needs an extra second at his jumps both of which are enough to exclude him from our calculations.
JLT Chase:
No massive opinions here...based on trends Billie Magern should be the pick but really couldn't back him given the size of his defeats including 20+ls to Quantativeeassing. Fruity O'Rooney meets a lot of the trends and looks a more solid option for a small interest. Hard to see quantitveeasing not placing but carrying a lot a weight to win it.
Champion Hurdle:
Hurricane fly looks the best hurdler since Istabraq and is hard to oppose here. Zarkander could have the makings of a superstar too but i think this may just have come too soon for him. Not much between the rest. Think the best bet here might be
1.5pts 3/1 on Zarkander w/o the fav (Paddy Power)
Cross Country:
Seem to be the only person who actually likes this race but its great for betting on. Course form outweights pretty much everything. Weights probably have more impact that most people claim but you could probably back the first 6 in the market e/w blind and have a decent chance of making a profit. The 2 for me are Uncle Junior and Sizing Australia.
1pt e/w Uncle Junior 9/2 (888sport)
1pt e/w Sizing Australia 5/1 (Lads)
Mares race:
Again Quevega looks to dominate this. Some value trying to pick a place though especially if you have a bet365 a/c where they are paying 4 places. Shop DJ seems to be on an upward curve winning a G3 comfortably at the end of last season and then putting in some good performances over fences this season. My concern would be that she hasn't had a run back over hurdles yet and might be a bit big at her jumps tomorrow - 20/1 is probably enough recompense for that though.
1.5pts e/w Shop DJ 20/1 (Lads)
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