A very special start

Well, its been a while but the Monday before Cheltenham - an adults equivalent of Christmas eve is here again so a few short thoughts on tomorrow's racing. My betting strategy for the first 2 races has been determined completely by 2 fantastic specials the bookies are giving and then after that I'll try and sift out some value in the later races.

Supreme Novices:
Boyle's have a shops only special for this - money back on losers if an Irish trained horse wins (max e200) this is roughly a 40% edge on any english trained runner you back so I've concentrated mainly on them. Talentwise Colour Squadron is possibly the pick of the bunch but he has too many quirks between running through hurdles and running sideways to be taken seriously in a field this size adn my pick would be Montbazon who was a length second to him the first time they met and won easily when CS crashed out the last day. His trainer couldn't be happier with his improvement since then the only downside being his broadcasting this to the world and subsequently causing his price to tumble. Still happy enough to take the 7s though and can't see him being far off. I'll also be having a little saver on Tetlami at 14s - not had the most conventional build up having being off course for 20 months he came back with 2 good hurldes wins and then had a run in a bumper a few weeks back to get him right for this. Not a huge fan of Darlan - his fall the last day combined with the heavy work he made of beating some average horses on his only other visit to Prestbury park being enough to put me off. I have a feeling Cinders and Ashes might prove better on flat tracks in time and might be one to keep in mind for Aintree if he finishes mid division here.

Arkle:
This time its Paddy Power who have lost their minds - money back if Sprinter Sacre wins for a 50% edge! SS looks pretty solid but this is a very classy field and he is up against the last 2 supreme winners both of whom save all of their best form for Cheltenham. SS on the other hand gurgled coming up the hill last year and a wind op may or may not have sorted that problem. If it has he's going to be tough to beat but I think even if he does win he's not going to do this without knowing he's been in a fight. Al Ferof and Menorah are both decent value (despite the latters sometimes erratic jumping) to get in the mix here. Not a huge fan of Cue Card. Found wanting here last year and the fact that his entire season he has raced at 2m4f is not something I would be a fan off. Suggests connections think he either lacks a bit of toe or needs an extra second at his jumps both of which are enough to exclude him from our calculations.

JLT Chase:
No massive opinions here...based on trends Billie Magern should be the pick but really couldn't back him given the size of his defeats including 20+ls to Quantativeeassing. Fruity O'Rooney meets a lot of the trends and looks a more solid option for a small interest. Hard to see quantitveeasing not placing but carrying a lot a weight to win it.

Champion Hurdle:
Hurricane fly looks the best hurdler since Istabraq and is hard to oppose here. Zarkander could have the makings of a superstar too but i think this may just have come too soon for him. Not much between the rest. Think the best bet here might be
1.5pts 3/1 on Zarkander w/o the fav (Paddy Power)


Cross Country:
Seem to be the only person who actually likes this race but its great for betting on. Course form outweights pretty much everything. Weights probably have more impact that most people claim but you could probably back the first 6 in the market e/w blind and have a decent chance of making a profit. The 2 for me are Uncle Junior and Sizing Australia.

1pt e/w Uncle Junior 9/2 (888sport)
1pt e/w Sizing Australia 5/1 (Lads)

Mares race:
Again Quevega looks to dominate this. Some value trying to pick a place though especially if you have a bet365 a/c where they are paying 4 places. Shop DJ seems to be on an upward curve winning a G3 comfortably at the end of last season and then putting in some good performances over fences this season. My concern would be that she hasn't had a run back over hurdles yet and might be a bit big at her jumps tomorrow - 20/1 is probably enough recompense for that though.

1.5pts e/w Shop DJ 20/1 (Lads)