Clawing our way back into the light

Well somehow back ahead for the festival after a pretty solid day today. Tomorrow is a pretty tricky day although we have another paddy power special to add some spice to our day (or variance as other people call it).

Jewson:
Actually coming out with a different answer than I thought I would coming into this which is kind of unfortunate as I've come to the conclusion that Cristal Bonus (my ante-post bet) probably won't win. Ran a great race the last day but although he's had a pretty light campaign so far he burned up the track the last day and 19 days is not long enough to recover from that. Peddlars Cross is obviously the best horse in the race but given his build up and last minute change of plans its hard to trust he is going to be right for this - actually tempted to lay him for a place because you would hop with such a good horse if things don't seem to be going right the jockey won't be overly hard on him. Sir Des Champs is a horse that looks like he can run really fast - the only problem is he hasn't really had to so far over fences and I would like to see him having been tested a bit more in the run up to this if I was going to back him at 7/2. Champion Court won here over 2m5f on New Years Day but just over a length back from him that day giving away 3lb was Solix. Would be pretty confident Solix will improve past him tomorrow and given the form the rest of the stable is in I would be surprised if the 8/1 is still available for long. Giving 2lbs to Carlito Brigante was too much for him last year running a creditable 5th in the Coral Cup and has a win and a 2nd to CC at the course since.

1pt e/w Solix 8/1

Pertemps:
Not a race I'll be getting massively involved in Buena Vista is too old for the hat-trick and our father has plenty of weight...might side with course and distance winner Houblon des Obeuax at a big price. Still a 5 year old so hopefully still improving. Didn't run well last year in the triumph but hopefully that was just an off day and not an aversion to large fields, after a win here from Kayf Aramis in the winter he should be in good form for this.

0.5pts ew Houblon des Obeaux 40/1

Ryanair:
Tempted to take the lazy option and just put up Great Endevour at a big price before everyone else tips him in the morning and his price collapses but much and all as I like him and think he'll run into a place - I still think he'll find 1 or 2 too good for him. People always talk about the Cheltenham hill and how tough it is but what a lot of people don't realise is a lot of the time its going down the hill and not up it that does for a lot of horses. 3 of the horse here fall into that bracket - Riverside Theatre, Medermit and Somersby, expect all of them to come under pressure going down the hill to put them in a position they can't win from and then stay on up the hill to look like unlucky losers - RT prob has the best chance of being quick enough to make up lost ground and make the frame. Alberta's Run is too old. Rubi Light has improved since last year when he came third but this looks a tougher task than that which leaves Noble Prince who won the Jewson last year and spent the winter just being touched off by Big Zeb......however this all overlooks the best horse in the race - last years Arkle winner Captain Chris. He holds pretty much all of these on any known form and if you throw out his last run where he obviously wasn't right it actually doesn't look like that bad a season. He fell when he had Medermit (half his price) beaten first time out, had Somersby behind him then in the King George over a trip and course that would be a lot more to Somersbys liking. Yes he might not be right but if he is 14/1 is going to look a monster price.

1.5pts win Captain Chris

World Hurdle:
I've looked through the trends on this race and it seems the strongest trend over the last few years is to back whichever horse is called Big Bucks. However in what is his toughest test yet Paddy Power are giving us our money back if we back a horse to come second to him (e100max) so basically want to get plenty of each way cash down on those likely to make the frame so will probably be looking to keep Thousand Stars, Oscar Whisky and So Young on side. Oscar is the most likely to turn over Big Bucks but has never raced over 3m before which makes me nervous. Thousand Stars won over 3m2f in France and win a few extra yards would have beaten Oscar Whisky in Aintree over 2m4f. Does most of her racing over 2m but trip is definitelywithin her grasp. So Young wasn't far off Rock on Ruby in the Neptune last year and with a similar level of improvement could be the surprise package here. Giving up a lot of value to take the PP price on her though unfortunately!

If I find anything in the last 2 handicaps I'll tweet it tomorrow. Bedtime now!