Time to make a Kill-ing

One day left to try and separate the bookies from their cash. Looks a trappy day but some value about if you dig deep enough.

Triumph:
Interesting that Ruby has decided to ride Dicosimo ahead of Kalkir as he looks a soft ground horse to me. Of the Irish the one that appeals is Petite Parisienne who looks to have the right profile for this race and even though she'll need to improve on what she showed the last day she looks progressive and having the won on the flat over 1m2f in France she probably has a better blend of speed and stamina than the other Irish runners. The English challenge is pretty much Nicky Henderson (think Beltor will be found wanting in this company). Of the Henderson crew Hargam might actually be their best suited to this with very solid flat form and some experience over the course earlier in the season. I have a slight perference for Petite Parisienne at these prices although will keep Hargam onside also.

1.5pts ew Petite Parisienne 11/1
.5 pts ew Hargam 7/1

County Hurdle:
Without going into this in too much depth it would seem to be a very brave (and for brave read stupid) man that tries to oppose the Martin plot horse here. Course form and off since a close third in the Caesarewich to protect his mark for this he could make 13/2 look very generous by 2.05 tomorrow.

1pt e/w Quick Jack 13/2

Albert Bartlett:
Couldn't have either of the top 2 in the market here. Black Hercules looks the ultimate hype horse - has never down anything special and the only time he's raced anything a step up from a shetland pony was in last years bumper where he came 4th. (giving him a pass on the Punchestown bumper where he was pretty much pulled up). Not entirely convinced that there was anything particularly wrong with NMH the last travelled fine for most of the race and just didn't look good enough at the end. Looking back at that race the standout horse for this race is surely Martello Tower who was just beaten by Outlander over a trip too short for him (just about got the better of Outlander over Christmas over 3m). He had some good horse behind him that day managing to beat Killutagh Vic (more on him later) and Windsor Park by 1 and 2 lengths respectively. The step up in trip will improve him and every last drop of rain forecast tonight will also help. Blaklion carries the English hopes as talented though he is Caracci Apache looks too crazy to be trusting your money with. Was very impressive in Cheltenham in December although on a strict line of form through Parlour games he would look to have a small bit to find with Martello Tower.

1.5pts ew Martello Tower
1pt place Blaklion

Gold Cup
What a mess of a race. Went through all the runners and by the end I had a cast iron reason for each of them why it was impossible for them to win. For some reason people in Ireland seem to rate Carlingford Lough as our great white hope for this race. If you are one of these people go back and watch the end of last years RSA - turning for home he has his chance. If he was good enough to win a GC he would have been good enough to win a poor enough RSA from there (instead of getting beaten back to 6th). Would say the same as regards Silvi Conti and last years GC. Djackadam is still a baby and his Thyestes win is way over-rated. Bobs Worth is over the hill and the over-night rain prob just tip the scales against  Holywell and my previous pick Lord Windermere. So that leaves Many Couds and Coneygree. In a marginal call on a very marginal bet I'm going to side with Coneygree and hope that connections are rewarded for their bravery in trying to take this down rather than going the novice route of the RSA - at 8 this is probably his best chance in a weak renewal.

0.5pts ew Coneygree 10/1

Hunter Chase
Think the combination of overnight rain and having Nina Carberry ride makes it very hard to get away from a bet on On the Fringe here especially given the 4 places. Even if Salsify is back to 100% a bit of juice in the ground could see him struggle to get to grips with On The Fringe and I would be very skeptical of Paint the Clouds UK form although SWC's safe jumping should  see him run on into a place.

On The Fringe 1.5 pts e/w

Martin Pipe:
I really did not expect my bet of the day (one of the bets of the meeting) to come in the Martin Pipe but you look down through all the horses laid out for this race and scan down the page then just as you get to the bottom you see a proper G2 horse running off bottom weight...seems flat out wrong to me. Killultagh Vic beat Windors Park the last time out when running behind (hopefully the AB winner) Martello Tower. He's the best horse in the race and gets weight from most of his competitors.

2.5pts ew Killultagh Vic 10/1

Grand Annual:
Would usually already be at the bar by the time this kicks off happy to wait another year for my gambling fix but given the ridiculous price of Ned Buntline seem unlikely I'll be able to resist a bet against him here. At the minute Blood Cotil looks to be my pick against him but that could change when I look into it more tomorrow