After 3 tough days without a winner since the first race I'm sure you are starting to doubt me. I was starting to doubt me. It's only natural in the face of such horrors of war. Times like these it is always good to take time for quiet reflection which is largely what I've been doing in Mulligans for the last 2 hours. Sitting there staring at the wood paneling though it wasn't the thoughts of the Somme or Rezorbi that cam flooding back but the thoughts of 5 years ago sitting in O'Neill's at this exact point dreaming of a horse called Our Conor. That day were we close to beat but found the strentgh to fight our way back into the light and some healthy profit on the Friday. Today is no different. I could have written this blog a month ago so steady is my conviction in 3 of my 3 picks for tomorrow. I can't claim I am as confident on the Triumph as i was that fateful day but I can say if neither of my picks win I will be carried out on my shield.
Triumph:
Oppose the hype. The real substance of this race ran in Leopardstown the last day and if run in the same race would have finished somewhere between Samcro and Duc de Genevieres. That is more than enough for tomorrow. I think Mr. Adjudicator will confirm the placing with Farclas but both should be backed and a reverse forecast is imperative.
2.5pts e/w Mr Adjudicator 9/1
1pts e/w Farclas 8/1
.25pts reverse forecast
County:
Bizarrely the only horse Ruby talked about in the run up to Cheltenham was Meri Devie. Paddys taking no chances as 9s. I've nibbled at 14's. Low conviction though
.5pts ew Merie Devie 14/1
Albert Bartlett:
If you liked Black Ops at 10s how can you not like the horse that beat him on trials day against a much weaker field. I personally have a decent double rolling over onto this but still great value at the current prices as I expected to see him more like 2s here
2pts win Santini
Gold Cup:
Tricky one as I have been torn between Road to Respect and Might Bite for a long time. In the end I just backed both of them. 4 places in a lot of shops and 9/2 Might Bite looks a shot to nothing. R2R had the form of Leopardstown franked in style today to Balko des Flos and has festival form already. The only 2 horse with perfect preparation and a real touch of class to them
2pts e/w Might Bite 9/2
1 pts e/w Road to Respect 12/1
Foxhunters:
Wonderful Charm was beaten a head last year and should go one better this year. SWC is a solid if not spectacular jockey who increases the place chances and only slightly reduces the win chances so happy to lump in each way here. An added bonus is that Foxrock - the only creature who hates Cheltenham more than the people who've followed this blog this year - is 3rd favourite. For those with the stomach lay him to place as he is at least a stone worse any time he travels here than when you go watch him at Leopardstown.
Hopefully that will be enough to have us in clover for St.Patricks Day as I haven't had a chance to trawl through the last. When you're half way through hell keep on going! Happy hunting
Thursday, 15 March 2018
Wednesday, 14 March 2018
Play it again Sam
A frustrating day of near misses that didn't really have much reward for those willing to take on the obvious choice. Still standing though and with an epic Gold Cup Friday on the horizon looking to add a little to the war chest ahead of that.
JLT Chase:
Hard to believe this is a Cheltenham G1with one of the poorest fields I can remember sifting through. Finian's Oscar has not looked a chaser this season and is proced up on his hurdles form. Benetar is closely matched with him on their last run and doesn't really excite. Modus seems to have found his way towards the top of the market by default without ever having beaten a total of 7 rivals in 3 average enough chases. Terrefort was getting weight from Cyrname when just prevailing the last day and that really shouldn't be enough to win this. Kemboy is a bit of an unknown having been lightly raced but a well beaten 5th in the Ballymore last year albeit having been kept overly wide the whole way around. I had been thinking of putting up Shattered Love before rewatching Kemboy's race from last year but seemed like she got taken off her feet very early last year before falling at one of the downhill hurdles - both pretty big negatives for this. So having eliminated pretty much everything else we are left with the obvious option - Invitation Only. Very close to Monalee the last day who ran very well in defeat today and Monalee could easily have started eye-wateringly short in this if re-routed from the RSA so hard to argue with taking 10/3.
1.5pts Invitation Only 10/3
Pertemps:
Time constraints meant I had to skip this one, however a guy I trust to back blindly on these types of race has put up Forza Milan and that is what I have done - a lot of extra place terms about if you look around
0.5pts ew Forza Milan 14/1
Ryanair:
Un de Sceaux is a great horse who is just unfortunate to be around at the same time as Sprinter Sacre then Douvan and then Altior. At another time he could be coming back here looking for his 3rd Champion Chase in a row but unfortunately that's not really how things worked out and instead he's coming back here to defend his Ryanair title. He's a 2m horse but had enough class to win this last year when the ground was good. With soft ground I think his stamina definitely becomes a doubt and at odds on once you factor in the Douvan R4 he's way too short for me. Cue Card winning would be the fairytale of the week and his last run would be good enough to win this IMO however at 12 its very hard to believe that he can reproduce such a phenomenal run with less than a 4 week turnaround. Cloudy Dream always seems to find one to good for him although I wouldn't entirely discount him given a lot of the horses he's come second to. Balko Des Flos seems a little inconsistent and not entirely sure will love the ground and with a fall at a down hill fence to his name I'm happy to bypass here. That only leaves Sub Lieutenant and Frodon. Frodon has had an up and down season but a very convincing winner at the course in Jan from the 1-2 in the Ultima on Tuesday and the last run against Cue Card was actually that bad despite coming a little soon off the back of that run. With a proper break he would be a confident selection here but I think he has been over-raced this season and hard to think he will be seen at his best here. That only really leaves last years 2nd Sub Liuetenant. Ran a great race last year and leaving aside the run at Down Royal's carousel course he actually has pretty decent form this season when you dig into it. In such a poor race 20/1 seems a gift.
1pt Sub Lieutenant 20/1
Stayers Hurdle:
Surprisingly easy one this one. Best 3m hurdle this season by a long way was the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot where Sam Spinner and L'Ami Serge pulled well clear of a quality field. With plenty of horses here as a plan B or who have already proved themselves not quite good enough I think those 2 will fight it out again.
2pts win Sam Spinner 7/2
1pt e/w L'ami Serge w/o SS 10/1
Brown Advisory H'cap;
Ignore his last run when Saint Calvados blitzed everyone and go back to his run at Ascot. Watch that race and then try not to back Drumcliff here. The jockey couldn't hold on to the horse as he shot clear after the last. Looked the world like a JP plot horse that day and surprised he's 25s tomorrow
1pt e/w Druncliff 25/1
Mare's Novice:
Laurina a worthy favourite here but again too much between her and the second favourite. Maria's benefit very close to that standard and at 7/1 looks an e/w bet to nothing.
1pt e/w Maria's Benefit 7/1
JLT Chase:
Hard to believe this is a Cheltenham G1with one of the poorest fields I can remember sifting through. Finian's Oscar has not looked a chaser this season and is proced up on his hurdles form. Benetar is closely matched with him on their last run and doesn't really excite. Modus seems to have found his way towards the top of the market by default without ever having beaten a total of 7 rivals in 3 average enough chases. Terrefort was getting weight from Cyrname when just prevailing the last day and that really shouldn't be enough to win this. Kemboy is a bit of an unknown having been lightly raced but a well beaten 5th in the Ballymore last year albeit having been kept overly wide the whole way around. I had been thinking of putting up Shattered Love before rewatching Kemboy's race from last year but seemed like she got taken off her feet very early last year before falling at one of the downhill hurdles - both pretty big negatives for this. So having eliminated pretty much everything else we are left with the obvious option - Invitation Only. Very close to Monalee the last day who ran very well in defeat today and Monalee could easily have started eye-wateringly short in this if re-routed from the RSA so hard to argue with taking 10/3.
1.5pts Invitation Only 10/3
Pertemps:
Time constraints meant I had to skip this one, however a guy I trust to back blindly on these types of race has put up Forza Milan and that is what I have done - a lot of extra place terms about if you look around
0.5pts ew Forza Milan 14/1
Ryanair:
Un de Sceaux is a great horse who is just unfortunate to be around at the same time as Sprinter Sacre then Douvan and then Altior. At another time he could be coming back here looking for his 3rd Champion Chase in a row but unfortunately that's not really how things worked out and instead he's coming back here to defend his Ryanair title. He's a 2m horse but had enough class to win this last year when the ground was good. With soft ground I think his stamina definitely becomes a doubt and at odds on once you factor in the Douvan R4 he's way too short for me. Cue Card winning would be the fairytale of the week and his last run would be good enough to win this IMO however at 12 its very hard to believe that he can reproduce such a phenomenal run with less than a 4 week turnaround. Cloudy Dream always seems to find one to good for him although I wouldn't entirely discount him given a lot of the horses he's come second to. Balko Des Flos seems a little inconsistent and not entirely sure will love the ground and with a fall at a down hill fence to his name I'm happy to bypass here. That only leaves Sub Lieutenant and Frodon. Frodon has had an up and down season but a very convincing winner at the course in Jan from the 1-2 in the Ultima on Tuesday and the last run against Cue Card was actually that bad despite coming a little soon off the back of that run. With a proper break he would be a confident selection here but I think he has been over-raced this season and hard to think he will be seen at his best here. That only really leaves last years 2nd Sub Liuetenant. Ran a great race last year and leaving aside the run at Down Royal's carousel course he actually has pretty decent form this season when you dig into it. In such a poor race 20/1 seems a gift.
1pt Sub Lieutenant 20/1
Stayers Hurdle:
Surprisingly easy one this one. Best 3m hurdle this season by a long way was the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot where Sam Spinner and L'Ami Serge pulled well clear of a quality field. With plenty of horses here as a plan B or who have already proved themselves not quite good enough I think those 2 will fight it out again.
2pts win Sam Spinner 7/2
1pt e/w L'ami Serge w/o SS 10/1
Brown Advisory H'cap;
Ignore his last run when Saint Calvados blitzed everyone and go back to his run at Ascot. Watch that race and then try not to back Drumcliff here. The jockey couldn't hold on to the horse as he shot clear after the last. Looked the world like a JP plot horse that day and surprised he's 25s tomorrow
1pt e/w Druncliff 25/1
Mare's Novice:
Laurina a worthy favourite here but again too much between her and the second favourite. Maria's benefit very close to that standard and at 7/1 looks an e/w bet to nothing.
1pt e/w Maria's Benefit 7/1
Tuesday, 13 March 2018
All for a good cause
A solid but not spectacular start, although Melon did his best to make a good day of it. Wednesday is probably the trappiest day of the meet but it looks like there's a few solid bets to be had and then outside of that best to stick to a few small speculative angles to try to keep things ticking over.
Ballymore:
For a race that has taken years off my life the last couple of weeks agonising over all the combinations of possible runners and the opportunities that might present for correlated doubles and NRNB edge this actually boils down to a fairly straight forward race in the end. On all known form Samcro should win although for a chaser in waiting who is already being aimed at Gold Cup 2020 I don' think connections will lose too much sleep if things don't go quite to plan tomorrow. The Irish form lines suggest there is not a whole lot between Duc de Genievres and Next Destination with ND just shading it so far. However it feels like ND has progressed a little slower than expected this season and I think the combination of natural improvement and the Cheltenham hill will see him improve past ND. That said I think Samcro held him a little cosily the last day and I think it's probably too big an ask to improve past him. So with those 3 the clear pick of the Irish form the only other contender would look to be Black Op. He's is the clear pick of the English form and his second to Santini when they completely blitzed the rest of the field here in January looks very good. He just got outstayed up the hill that day but on slightly better ground he is the most likely horse to have the beating of Samcro. I will be backing him small ew and will also take a little on DdG w/o Samcro as the most likely second here if the English form is flattered by that Cheltenham race the last day
0.5pts ew Black Op 10/1
1 pt ew Duc De Genievres (wo Samcro) 5/1
RSA Chase:
A race that for me revolves around a single piece of form - the Flogas Chase at Leopardstown which looked one of the best novice chases this season. 3 of the top 4 there line up here tomorrow and with just a couple of length separating them that day its surprising how much separates them in the betting. It seems like the step up to 3m will suits Monalee and Dounikos more than Al Boum Photo and if Monalee's jumping holds up I expect them to fight out the finish. Presenting Percy has done nothing really wrong but looks very short and off a 3 week turn around he's easy to oppose given he would have to be at his very best to be winning this. I would have similar thoughts on Black Corton although he has had a slightly better preparation given he took a break between Kempton and his pipe-opener the last day. I personally think the step up will just see Dounikos shade it and at over twice the price he is definitely the play for me. Given their runs the last day though I wouldn't put off the braver of you from having a cheeky reverse forecast on the 2 of them!
1pt ew Dounikos 8/1
Coral Cup:
Another big field handicap where I have very limited insight into what could be value. I'll have a token interest on Red Indian here @25/1 who is weighted to get pretty close to the favourite William Henry and starts at 3 times the price.
.25pts ew Red Indian 25/1
Champion Chase:
Easiest race of the day, biggest bet of the day...I hope. Great horses have a habit of being expensive for good gamblers - they consistently do the impossible and make us pay to see it. Hopefully this won't be the case tomorrow though! There are 3 superstars in the line up here - Altior, Douvan and Min. In that order. However of the three only one is actually primed to be seen at his best. Douvan hasn't seen a racecourse since being pulled up here last year. I'm pretty sure a Cheltenham G1 has never been won by a horse on their seasonal debut in my lifetime and I don't expect this to change tomorrow. To win a weak championship race with no sort of proper preparation would be impressive to win this one would be the stuff of legend and at 7/2 I'm not betting on seeing any unicorns tomorrow. Altior also has a huge task having only had his first run when easily brushing aside Politilogue a month ago. Chances of a bounce are a distinct possibility after such an impressive reappearance from a 9 month layoff and throw in the mix him being lame 2 days ago and it seems like an easy pass at evens-5/4. Min on the other hand you know exactly what you will get - the race will be run exactly to suit him with Special Tiara ensuring a good gallop and I would expect a performance in the mid 160's. This is probably not enough to beat a peak Altior or Douvan but if neither is in peak form he will win this and with a field of 9 him finishing outside the top 3 is inconceivable to me.
4pts e/w Min 4/1
Cross Country:
Course experience is a huge thing in this race, something which has not escaped Gordon Elliott who brought both Tiger Roll and Cause of Causes to Cheltenham in January not to race but to school over the cross country fences. Cause of Causes is a worthy favourite here having won this last year on route to Aintree. With a preparation that suggests Elliott is gunning for a fourth festival win in a row with CoC with meticulous preparation he is a confident selection to retain his crown. That said I can't let one of the relative outsiders from France go unbacked. You could make legitimate claims for any of the 3 French (Urgent de Gregaine, Urumqi, and Vicomte de Seuil) but it is the first named that appeals the most. He was 2 course runs under his belt - a first and a third and seems sure to be overlooked in the betting tomorrow - if you can get some of the 12s without CoC get on!
2pts win Cause of Causes 3/1
.5pts e/w Urgent de Gregaine 12/1
Fred Winter:
Another seemingly insolvable puzzle I've gone with the French angle again with Brave Dancing looking under-respected by the UK betting markets.
0.5pts e/w Brave Dancing 40/1
Champion bumper:
Almost certainly the best bumper run so far this season was when Blackbow and Rhinestone locked horns. That day I was pretty sure Rhinestone would improve past Blackbow. The weather hasn't helped as I think Rhinestone would have prefered more traditional Cheltenham ground but with no rain forecast overnight it might just dry out enough for him to shade this.
0.5pts Rhinestone 8/1
Ballymore:
For a race that has taken years off my life the last couple of weeks agonising over all the combinations of possible runners and the opportunities that might present for correlated doubles and NRNB edge this actually boils down to a fairly straight forward race in the end. On all known form Samcro should win although for a chaser in waiting who is already being aimed at Gold Cup 2020 I don' think connections will lose too much sleep if things don't go quite to plan tomorrow. The Irish form lines suggest there is not a whole lot between Duc de Genievres and Next Destination with ND just shading it so far. However it feels like ND has progressed a little slower than expected this season and I think the combination of natural improvement and the Cheltenham hill will see him improve past ND. That said I think Samcro held him a little cosily the last day and I think it's probably too big an ask to improve past him. So with those 3 the clear pick of the Irish form the only other contender would look to be Black Op. He's is the clear pick of the English form and his second to Santini when they completely blitzed the rest of the field here in January looks very good. He just got outstayed up the hill that day but on slightly better ground he is the most likely horse to have the beating of Samcro. I will be backing him small ew and will also take a little on DdG w/o Samcro as the most likely second here if the English form is flattered by that Cheltenham race the last day
0.5pts ew Black Op 10/1
1 pt ew Duc De Genievres (wo Samcro) 5/1
RSA Chase:
A race that for me revolves around a single piece of form - the Flogas Chase at Leopardstown which looked one of the best novice chases this season. 3 of the top 4 there line up here tomorrow and with just a couple of length separating them that day its surprising how much separates them in the betting. It seems like the step up to 3m will suits Monalee and Dounikos more than Al Boum Photo and if Monalee's jumping holds up I expect them to fight out the finish. Presenting Percy has done nothing really wrong but looks very short and off a 3 week turn around he's easy to oppose given he would have to be at his very best to be winning this. I would have similar thoughts on Black Corton although he has had a slightly better preparation given he took a break between Kempton and his pipe-opener the last day. I personally think the step up will just see Dounikos shade it and at over twice the price he is definitely the play for me. Given their runs the last day though I wouldn't put off the braver of you from having a cheeky reverse forecast on the 2 of them!
1pt ew Dounikos 8/1
Coral Cup:
Another big field handicap where I have very limited insight into what could be value. I'll have a token interest on Red Indian here @25/1 who is weighted to get pretty close to the favourite William Henry and starts at 3 times the price.
.25pts ew Red Indian 25/1
Champion Chase:
Easiest race of the day, biggest bet of the day...I hope. Great horses have a habit of being expensive for good gamblers - they consistently do the impossible and make us pay to see it. Hopefully this won't be the case tomorrow though! There are 3 superstars in the line up here - Altior, Douvan and Min. In that order. However of the three only one is actually primed to be seen at his best. Douvan hasn't seen a racecourse since being pulled up here last year. I'm pretty sure a Cheltenham G1 has never been won by a horse on their seasonal debut in my lifetime and I don't expect this to change tomorrow. To win a weak championship race with no sort of proper preparation would be impressive to win this one would be the stuff of legend and at 7/2 I'm not betting on seeing any unicorns tomorrow. Altior also has a huge task having only had his first run when easily brushing aside Politilogue a month ago. Chances of a bounce are a distinct possibility after such an impressive reappearance from a 9 month layoff and throw in the mix him being lame 2 days ago and it seems like an easy pass at evens-5/4. Min on the other hand you know exactly what you will get - the race will be run exactly to suit him with Special Tiara ensuring a good gallop and I would expect a performance in the mid 160's. This is probably not enough to beat a peak Altior or Douvan but if neither is in peak form he will win this and with a field of 9 him finishing outside the top 3 is inconceivable to me.
4pts e/w Min 4/1
Cross Country:
Course experience is a huge thing in this race, something which has not escaped Gordon Elliott who brought both Tiger Roll and Cause of Causes to Cheltenham in January not to race but to school over the cross country fences. Cause of Causes is a worthy favourite here having won this last year on route to Aintree. With a preparation that suggests Elliott is gunning for a fourth festival win in a row with CoC with meticulous preparation he is a confident selection to retain his crown. That said I can't let one of the relative outsiders from France go unbacked. You could make legitimate claims for any of the 3 French (Urgent de Gregaine, Urumqi, and Vicomte de Seuil) but it is the first named that appeals the most. He was 2 course runs under his belt - a first and a third and seems sure to be overlooked in the betting tomorrow - if you can get some of the 12s without CoC get on!
2pts win Cause of Causes 3/1
.5pts e/w Urgent de Gregaine 12/1
Fred Winter:
Another seemingly insolvable puzzle I've gone with the French angle again with Brave Dancing looking under-respected by the UK betting markets.
0.5pts e/w Brave Dancing 40/1
Champion bumper:
Almost certainly the best bumper run so far this season was when Blackbow and Rhinestone locked horns. That day I was pretty sure Rhinestone would improve past Blackbow. The weather hasn't helped as I think Rhinestone would have prefered more traditional Cheltenham ground but with no rain forecast overnight it might just dry out enough for him to shade this.
0.5pts Rhinestone 8/1
Monday, 12 March 2018
So it begins
After a year of waiting Tuesdays racing nearly feels like an anticlimax. That probably sounds a bit harsh given some of the champions on show but in terms of making cash most of my strong fancies this year will be towards the end of the week. The easy money of previous years is a lot thinner on the ground now that the PP/Boyles duopoly has taken complete hold and they no longer feel the need for big giveaway gimmicks that can easily be exploited. This does mean we are going to have to up our game and bet smarter if we hope to come out on top by Friday!
Supreme:
After a lot of will he/won't he Samcro has unfortunately opted for the Ballymore leaving Getabird the clear favourite. I was very taken by Getabird win at Navan against Mengli Khan and a few weeks back I would have found it hard to think I could let him start near 2's without backing him. However I'm a little concerned about how weak he was in the market even before people started to think he might have to take on Samcro. By all accounts he seems to be a relatively fragile horse and stable comments haven't been overly bullish (for what that is worth!). Kalashnikov ran a great race in the betfair and it's not hard to see why he's as short as he is. However I would be a little worried that such a hard race will have left a mark on him and much more attractive at twice the prices is the horse that beat him the previous run in the Tolworth - Summerville Boy. That was a very good run in conditions similar to what they will face on Tuesday and with a nice break since he looks a very solid bet @10/1. Another horse it brings into the reckoning is Western Ryder who is largely forgotten in the betting. He won a muddling race at Cheltenham back in December with Summerville Boy (who struggled to settle early) back in third but I really liked how he came up the hill that day. He got a little lost inthe mud in the Tolworth but if the ground isn't bottomless on Tuesday I think he has a better chance than a lot of the horses shorter than him in the betting.
1pt e/w Summerville Boy 8/1
0.25pts e/w Western Ryder 33/1
Arkle:
Wow! What a race! In a normal year any one of the top 3 here would be expected to go off odds on favourite. This is an incredible match up and probably the race of the week with the big 3 here scaring off pretty much everything else. I find it very hard to split them but with the Leopardstown 1-2 from Christmas taking up 67% of the book versus Saint Calvados only 25% I have to take a low confidence position on SC. I think the rain will probably help and think he probably has more scope for improvement than either of the other two. Regardless of the result this is a proper Championship race to savour. Enjoy
2pts Saint Calvados 3/1
Ultima:
I could look at nothing else between now and 2 o'clock on Tuesday and still not figure out the right answer on this one. Token interest bet on Vicente who ran well here in November when just touched off but as close to zero confidence as possible on this one.
0.25pts ew Vicente 16/1
Champion Hurdle:
Almost impossible to see the favourite beaten here. So far clear of anything everything else in this has ever done bar Faugheen. At 10 off the back of a very disrupted few years its more hope than expectation for Faugheen. At a bigger price i might have made a case for Wicklow Brave who destroyed a County Hurdle here 3 years ago but with the unlikely prep race of the Melbourne Cup and a dislike for jumping off the price has gotten too short to be of interest so in a field consisting of either has been's or never was' I have somehow found myself backing Melon. A good second in the Supreme last year seems the best on offer here and was giving 6lbs to MTOY when beaten 2ls here in December. The whole world seemed to know something wasn't right the last day given the price move so willing to give the benefit of the doubt just once and hope he can collect some place money.
1pt e/w Melon 18/1
Mare's Hurdle:
Nearly a copy and paste of the above! Apples Jade is at least a stone better than these and would have been clear second fav in the Champion if she lined up. Really only trying to figure out who follows her up the hill. Don't really buy the hype on BdD who made relatively hard work of a Listed race in Naas last time out - they may talk about her like she's the next Vroum Vroum Mag but I've yet to see anything that puts her close (bar the owner/trainer combo). Jer's Girl is a horse I've always liked but been backed of the boards and 14s is hard to get excited about for a horse whose only Cheltenham experience is a heavy fall at one of the downhill hurdles. La Bague Au Roi has done nothing but improve this year having given Jer's Girl 4lbs and a beating in November before putting in a majestic performance in a G2 in Ascot the last day. I make her comfortably second best here and who know's anything can happen as we saw with Annie Power a few years back.
1.5pts e.w La Bague Au Roi
NH Chase:
To a certain extent this is one where you've probably missed the boat already. I mentioned Mossback to a few of you over the weekend as it seemed crazy that he wasn't already favourite having just been beaten by Monbeg Notorius the last day who likely would have started 7/2-4/1 fav if lining up here. He also would have beaten Jury Duty if standing up at Naas and was well clear of the winner of that race (Moulin A Vent) the last day. I would like him to have had a little longer of a break but that aside even with his price contracting to 6s there is probably still a little value left there.
1pt win Mossback 6/1
Close Bro H'cap:
Usually a minefield of plot horses and informed gambles. Not where I would ever expect to have a confident bet.. however just can't resist charging into this minefield of misinformation this year with a horse I've been tracking all season and is clearly a G2 horse somehow running off bottom weight. I'm sure I'm missing something and this will be made clear to me at 5.30 tomorrow but Ballyhill looks the standout bet of the day to me. In his first 2 starts of the season the only horse to beat him were Sceau Royal (twice) and North Hill Harvey. After 2 such big efforts he was sent out too soon and duly flopped before falling the next time at Aintree. He then put up a gutsy performance in bottomless ground here on New Years Day to win over an extra furlong than tomorrow. Those efforts told again a few weeks later when he stopped pretty quickly in the race Frodon crushed (2nd there was Shantou Flyer who was also 2nd on New Years Day). He's now had a nice 7 week break and hopefully coming here fresh we'll see the horse who looked so good at the start of the season putting it up to the Arkle hopefuls.
2pts e/w BallyHill 22/1
Happy punting!
Supreme:
After a lot of will he/won't he Samcro has unfortunately opted for the Ballymore leaving Getabird the clear favourite. I was very taken by Getabird win at Navan against Mengli Khan and a few weeks back I would have found it hard to think I could let him start near 2's without backing him. However I'm a little concerned about how weak he was in the market even before people started to think he might have to take on Samcro. By all accounts he seems to be a relatively fragile horse and stable comments haven't been overly bullish (for what that is worth!). Kalashnikov ran a great race in the betfair and it's not hard to see why he's as short as he is. However I would be a little worried that such a hard race will have left a mark on him and much more attractive at twice the prices is the horse that beat him the previous run in the Tolworth - Summerville Boy. That was a very good run in conditions similar to what they will face on Tuesday and with a nice break since he looks a very solid bet @10/1. Another horse it brings into the reckoning is Western Ryder who is largely forgotten in the betting. He won a muddling race at Cheltenham back in December with Summerville Boy (who struggled to settle early) back in third but I really liked how he came up the hill that day. He got a little lost inthe mud in the Tolworth but if the ground isn't bottomless on Tuesday I think he has a better chance than a lot of the horses shorter than him in the betting.
1pt e/w Summerville Boy 8/1
0.25pts e/w Western Ryder 33/1
Arkle:
Wow! What a race! In a normal year any one of the top 3 here would be expected to go off odds on favourite. This is an incredible match up and probably the race of the week with the big 3 here scaring off pretty much everything else. I find it very hard to split them but with the Leopardstown 1-2 from Christmas taking up 67% of the book versus Saint Calvados only 25% I have to take a low confidence position on SC. I think the rain will probably help and think he probably has more scope for improvement than either of the other two. Regardless of the result this is a proper Championship race to savour. Enjoy
2pts Saint Calvados 3/1
Ultima:
I could look at nothing else between now and 2 o'clock on Tuesday and still not figure out the right answer on this one. Token interest bet on Vicente who ran well here in November when just touched off but as close to zero confidence as possible on this one.
0.25pts ew Vicente 16/1
Champion Hurdle:
Almost impossible to see the favourite beaten here. So far clear of anything everything else in this has ever done bar Faugheen. At 10 off the back of a very disrupted few years its more hope than expectation for Faugheen. At a bigger price i might have made a case for Wicklow Brave who destroyed a County Hurdle here 3 years ago but with the unlikely prep race of the Melbourne Cup and a dislike for jumping off the price has gotten too short to be of interest so in a field consisting of either has been's or never was' I have somehow found myself backing Melon. A good second in the Supreme last year seems the best on offer here and was giving 6lbs to MTOY when beaten 2ls here in December. The whole world seemed to know something wasn't right the last day given the price move so willing to give the benefit of the doubt just once and hope he can collect some place money.
1pt e/w Melon 18/1
Mare's Hurdle:
Nearly a copy and paste of the above! Apples Jade is at least a stone better than these and would have been clear second fav in the Champion if she lined up. Really only trying to figure out who follows her up the hill. Don't really buy the hype on BdD who made relatively hard work of a Listed race in Naas last time out - they may talk about her like she's the next Vroum Vroum Mag but I've yet to see anything that puts her close (bar the owner/trainer combo). Jer's Girl is a horse I've always liked but been backed of the boards and 14s is hard to get excited about for a horse whose only Cheltenham experience is a heavy fall at one of the downhill hurdles. La Bague Au Roi has done nothing but improve this year having given Jer's Girl 4lbs and a beating in November before putting in a majestic performance in a G2 in Ascot the last day. I make her comfortably second best here and who know's anything can happen as we saw with Annie Power a few years back.
1.5pts e.w La Bague Au Roi
NH Chase:
To a certain extent this is one where you've probably missed the boat already. I mentioned Mossback to a few of you over the weekend as it seemed crazy that he wasn't already favourite having just been beaten by Monbeg Notorius the last day who likely would have started 7/2-4/1 fav if lining up here. He also would have beaten Jury Duty if standing up at Naas and was well clear of the winner of that race (Moulin A Vent) the last day. I would like him to have had a little longer of a break but that aside even with his price contracting to 6s there is probably still a little value left there.
1pt win Mossback 6/1
Close Bro H'cap:
Usually a minefield of plot horses and informed gambles. Not where I would ever expect to have a confident bet.. however just can't resist charging into this minefield of misinformation this year with a horse I've been tracking all season and is clearly a G2 horse somehow running off bottom weight. I'm sure I'm missing something and this will be made clear to me at 5.30 tomorrow but Ballyhill looks the standout bet of the day to me. In his first 2 starts of the season the only horse to beat him were Sceau Royal (twice) and North Hill Harvey. After 2 such big efforts he was sent out too soon and duly flopped before falling the next time at Aintree. He then put up a gutsy performance in bottomless ground here on New Years Day to win over an extra furlong than tomorrow. Those efforts told again a few weeks later when he stopped pretty quickly in the race Frodon crushed (2nd there was Shantou Flyer who was also 2nd on New Years Day). He's now had a nice 7 week break and hopefully coming here fresh we'll see the horse who looked so good at the start of the season putting it up to the Arkle hopefuls.
2pts e/w BallyHill 22/1
Happy punting!
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