A solid but not spectacular start, although Melon did his best to make a good day of it. Wednesday is probably the trappiest day of the meet but it looks like there's a few solid bets to be had and then outside of that best to stick to a few small speculative angles to try to keep things ticking over.
Ballymore:
For a race that has taken years off my life the last couple of weeks agonising over all the combinations of possible runners and the opportunities that might present for correlated doubles and NRNB edge this actually boils down to a fairly straight forward race in the end. On all known form Samcro should win although for a chaser in waiting who is already being aimed at Gold Cup 2020 I don' think connections will lose too much sleep if things don't go quite to plan tomorrow. The Irish form lines suggest there is not a whole lot between Duc de Genievres and Next Destination with ND just shading it so far. However it feels like ND has progressed a little slower than expected this season and I think the combination of natural improvement and the Cheltenham hill will see him improve past ND. That said I think Samcro held him a little cosily the last day and I think it's probably too big an ask to improve past him. So with those 3 the clear pick of the Irish form the only other contender would look to be Black Op. He's is the clear pick of the English form and his second to Santini when they completely blitzed the rest of the field here in January looks very good. He just got outstayed up the hill that day but on slightly better ground he is the most likely horse to have the beating of Samcro. I will be backing him small ew and will also take a little on DdG w/o Samcro as the most likely second here if the English form is flattered by that Cheltenham race the last day
0.5pts ew Black Op 10/1
1 pt ew Duc De Genievres (wo Samcro) 5/1
RSA Chase:
A race that for me revolves around a single piece of form - the Flogas Chase at Leopardstown which looked one of the best novice chases this season. 3 of the top 4 there line up here tomorrow and with just a couple of length separating them that day its surprising how much separates them in the betting. It seems like the step up to 3m will suits Monalee and Dounikos more than Al Boum Photo and if Monalee's jumping holds up I expect them to fight out the finish. Presenting Percy has done nothing really wrong but looks very short and off a 3 week turn around he's easy to oppose given he would have to be at his very best to be winning this. I would have similar thoughts on Black Corton although he has had a slightly better preparation given he took a break between Kempton and his pipe-opener the last day. I personally think the step up will just see Dounikos shade it and at over twice the price he is definitely the play for me. Given their runs the last day though I wouldn't put off the braver of you from having a cheeky reverse forecast on the 2 of them!
1pt ew Dounikos 8/1
Coral Cup:
Another big field handicap where I have very limited insight into what could be value. I'll have a token interest on Red Indian here @25/1 who is weighted to get pretty close to the favourite William Henry and starts at 3 times the price.
.25pts ew Red Indian 25/1
Champion Chase:
Easiest race of the day, biggest bet of the day...I hope. Great horses have a habit of being expensive for good gamblers - they consistently do the impossible and make us pay to see it. Hopefully this won't be the case tomorrow though! There are 3 superstars in the line up here - Altior, Douvan and Min. In that order. However of the three only one is actually primed to be seen at his best. Douvan hasn't seen a racecourse since being pulled up here last year. I'm pretty sure a Cheltenham G1 has never been won by a horse on their seasonal debut in my lifetime and I don't expect this to change tomorrow. To win a weak championship race with no sort of proper preparation would be impressive to win this one would be the stuff of legend and at 7/2 I'm not betting on seeing any unicorns tomorrow. Altior also has a huge task having only had his first run when easily brushing aside Politilogue a month ago. Chances of a bounce are a distinct possibility after such an impressive reappearance from a 9 month layoff and throw in the mix him being lame 2 days ago and it seems like an easy pass at evens-5/4. Min on the other hand you know exactly what you will get - the race will be run exactly to suit him with Special Tiara ensuring a good gallop and I would expect a performance in the mid 160's. This is probably not enough to beat a peak Altior or Douvan but if neither is in peak form he will win this and with a field of 9 him finishing outside the top 3 is inconceivable to me.
4pts e/w Min 4/1
Cross Country:
Course experience is a huge thing in this race, something which has not escaped Gordon Elliott who brought both Tiger Roll and Cause of Causes to Cheltenham in January not to race but to school over the cross country fences. Cause of Causes is a worthy favourite here having won this last year on route to Aintree. With a preparation that suggests Elliott is gunning for a fourth festival win in a row with CoC with meticulous preparation he is a confident selection to retain his crown. That said I can't let one of the relative outsiders from France go unbacked. You could make legitimate claims for any of the 3 French (Urgent de Gregaine, Urumqi, and Vicomte de Seuil) but it is the first named that appeals the most. He was 2 course runs under his belt - a first and a third and seems sure to be overlooked in the betting tomorrow - if you can get some of the 12s without CoC get on!
2pts win Cause of Causes 3/1
.5pts e/w Urgent de Gregaine 12/1
Fred Winter:
Another seemingly insolvable puzzle I've gone with the French angle again with Brave Dancing looking under-respected by the UK betting markets.
0.5pts e/w Brave Dancing 40/1
Champion bumper:
Almost certainly the best bumper run so far this season was when Blackbow and Rhinestone locked horns. That day I was pretty sure Rhinestone would improve past Blackbow. The weather hasn't helped as I think Rhinestone would have prefered more traditional Cheltenham ground but with no rain forecast overnight it might just dry out enough for him to shade this.
0.5pts Rhinestone 8/1
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