So it begins

After a year of waiting Tuesdays racing nearly feels like an anticlimax. That probably sounds a bit harsh given some of the champions on show but in terms of making cash most of my strong fancies this year will be towards the end of the week. The easy money of previous years is a lot thinner on the ground now that the PP/Boyles duopoly has taken complete hold and they no longer feel the need for big giveaway gimmicks that can easily be exploited. This does mean we are going to have to up our game and bet smarter if we hope to come out on top by Friday!

Supreme:
After a lot of will he/won't he Samcro has unfortunately opted for the Ballymore leaving Getabird the clear favourite. I was very taken by Getabird win at Navan against Mengli Khan and a few weeks back I would have found it hard to think I could let him start near 2's without backing him. However I'm a little concerned about how weak he was in the market even before people started to think he might have to take on Samcro. By all accounts he seems to be a relatively fragile horse and stable comments haven't been overly bullish (for what that is worth!). Kalashnikov ran a great race in the betfair and it's not hard to see why he's as short as he is. However I would be a little worried that such a hard race will have left a mark on him and much more attractive at twice the prices is the horse that beat him the previous run in the Tolworth - Summerville Boy. That was a very good run in conditions similar to what they will face on Tuesday and with a nice break since he looks a very solid bet @10/1. Another horse it brings into the reckoning is Western Ryder who is largely forgotten in the betting. He won a muddling race at Cheltenham back in December with Summerville Boy (who struggled to settle early) back in third but I really liked how he came up the hill that day. He got a little lost inthe mud in the Tolworth but if the ground isn't bottomless on Tuesday I think he has a better chance than a lot of the horses shorter than him in the betting.

1pt e/w Summerville Boy 8/1
0.25pts e/w Western Ryder 33/1

Arkle:
Wow! What a race! In a normal year any one of the top 3 here would be expected to go off odds on favourite. This is an incredible match up and probably the race of the week with the big 3 here scaring off pretty much everything else. I find it very hard to split them but with the Leopardstown 1-2 from Christmas taking up 67% of the book versus Saint Calvados only 25% I have to take a low confidence position on SC. I think the rain will probably help and think he probably has more scope for improvement than either of the other two. Regardless of the result this is a proper Championship race to savour. Enjoy

2pts Saint Calvados 3/1

Ultima:
I could look at nothing else between now and 2 o'clock on Tuesday and still not figure out the right answer on this one. Token interest bet on Vicente who ran well here in November when just touched off but as close to zero confidence as possible on this one.
0.25pts ew Vicente 16/1

Champion Hurdle:
Almost impossible to see the favourite beaten here. So far clear of anything everything else in this has ever done bar Faugheen. At 10 off the back of a very disrupted few years its more hope than expectation for Faugheen. At a bigger price i might have made a case for Wicklow Brave who destroyed a County Hurdle here 3 years ago but with the unlikely prep race of the Melbourne Cup and a dislike for jumping off the price has gotten too short to be of interest so in a field consisting of either has been's or never was' I have somehow found myself backing Melon. A good second in the Supreme last year seems the best on offer here and was giving 6lbs to MTOY when beaten 2ls here in December. The whole world seemed to know something wasn't right the last day given the price move so willing to give the benefit of the doubt just once and hope he can collect some place money.

1pt e/w Melon 18/1

Mare's Hurdle:
Nearly a copy and paste of the above! Apples Jade is at least a stone better than these and would have been clear second fav in the Champion if she lined up. Really only trying to figure out who follows her up the hill. Don't really buy the hype on BdD who made relatively hard work of a Listed race in Naas last time out - they may talk about her like she's the next Vroum Vroum Mag but I've yet to see anything that puts her close (bar the owner/trainer combo). Jer's Girl is a horse I've always liked but been backed of the boards  and 14s is hard to get excited about for a horse whose only Cheltenham experience is a heavy fall at one of the downhill hurdles. La Bague Au Roi has done nothing but improve this year having given Jer's Girl 4lbs and a beating in November before putting in a majestic performance in a G2 in Ascot the last day. I make her comfortably second best here and who know's anything can happen as we saw with Annie Power a few years back.

1.5pts e.w La Bague Au Roi

NH Chase:
To a certain extent this is one where you've probably missed the boat already. I mentioned Mossback to a few of you over the weekend as it seemed crazy that he wasn't already favourite having just been beaten by Monbeg Notorius the last day who likely would have started 7/2-4/1 fav if lining up here. He also would have beaten Jury Duty if standing up at Naas and was well clear of the winner of that race (Moulin A Vent) the last day. I would like him to have had a little longer of a break but that aside even with his price contracting to 6s there is probably still a little value left there.

1pt win Mossback 6/1

Close Bro H'cap:
Usually a minefield of plot horses and informed gambles. Not where I would ever expect to have a confident bet.. however just can't resist charging into this minefield of misinformation this year with a horse I've been tracking all season and is clearly a G2 horse somehow running off bottom weight. I'm sure I'm missing something and this will be made clear to me at 5.30 tomorrow but Ballyhill looks the standout bet of the day to me. In his first 2 starts of the season the only horse to beat him were Sceau Royal (twice) and North Hill Harvey. After 2 such big efforts he was sent out too soon and duly flopped before falling the next time at Aintree. He then put up a gutsy performance in bottomless ground here on New Years Day to win over an extra furlong than tomorrow. Those efforts told again a few weeks later when he stopped pretty quickly in the race Frodon crushed (2nd there was Shantou Flyer who was also 2nd on New Years Day). He's now had a nice 7 week break and hopefully coming here fresh  we'll see the horse who looked so good at the start of the season putting it up to the Arkle hopefuls.

2pts e/w BallyHill 22/1

Happy punting!