They say you should always stop talking before you run out of things to say and so after 15 Cheltenham's since we started out with the mighty Menorah in the 2009 Supreme it's time to wrap things up here. I want to finish before we drag things out too long and risk the Eamon Dunphy complex of becoming a parody of ourselves. When I started this blog I never went into a bookie shop without seeing at least a handful of bets that I knew were just good. It was a much more competitive bookie shop market with tighter margins and worse pricing - easy pickings for anyone with a bit of quick maths and common sense. Since then things have changed a lot. All the low hanging fruit has been well and truly over-grazed and any easy money is now gone from the market. Nowadays I rarely set foot in a bookie shop except to get out of the rain. That's not to say it's impossible to make money from the bookies but just the opportunities are rarer, smaller and more time sensitive. This all makes it harder to have anything worthwhile to say when you are looking to put up tips 8 hours before anyone is going to have a chance to back them. I always got a lot of enjoyment out of writing this blog and hopefully you've got as much fun out of reading it but at the end of the day it was always about the cash. These were tips to win money and put the odds firmly in your favour over a week of punting and pinting. Any tip I've ever put up I've backed it up with my own cash and never want to get to the point of putting up tips for the sake of something to say. Looking at the markets for the week ahead it's hard to think I can honestly guide you through 24 races and put up something in each expecting to be positive expected value by the end of it. So now the end is near and like Frankie I will continue to do things my way. This blog is going to cover the whole week and highlight a few horses I think are interesting and a few formlines that you should be aware of as the week goes on.
The Supreme:
We kick things off with the Supreme which is all change now that Ballyburn has moved up to take on the longer Gallagher Hurdle. The front of the market is dominated by horses with lots of hype but not that much form. Mystical Power and Tullyhill clearly have lots of potential but at the minute that’s all it is and having never really been tested it is hard to see the case for having them both shorter prices than the only horse to ever have beaten Ballyburn (who probably would have been odds-on if lining up here). Firefox beat Ile Atlantique in a bumper and Ballyburn in a novice hurdle and that is clearly the best form on offer here. He wasn’t 100% the last day judging by the SP and it’s easy to forgive that as an off day in what was a high class field. If you believe that form literally you would want to be having max lifetime bets on Ile Atlantique and in particular Reading Tommy Wrong at the current prices. I don’t believe the form literally but I do believe a little treble on those 3 is a good bet through the week as I think both will shorten after Firefox delivers here. Of the Willie Mullins brigade possibly the one where the price doesn’t overshoot the potential is Asian Master. A horse with a funny profile who started life coming second to Fact to File in a P2P before finding his way into hunter chases for the Costello family and eventually as they realised what they had on their hands they turned him over to Willie to fulfil his full potential. The son Tom maintains the ride so never really gets a mention when discussing the stable pecking order but a lot to like about his 2 runs since moving to Willie. Won his maiden by a cosy length from Jimmy du Seuil (who sluiced in the next day) before beating the Martin Pipe fancy Betterdaysahead out the gate the next day. Admittedly he would have to do that given the pull at the weights he had that day but it was an eye catching performance which suggests he might just have a squeak at causing an upset here. So with zero hype baked into his price I would be happy enough with a small ew nibble particularly with 4 places.
2pts ew Firefox 6/1
0.5pt ew Asian Master 28/1
0.25pts ew Treble Firefox/Ile Altantique/Reading Tommy Wrong
The Arkle:
The Arkle is a tricky puzzle where there is case to be made against all of the contenders. Gaelic Warrior probably shortens from here to be a clearer favourite by the off and not hard to see why off his 2 runs before the DRF but it would be a concern at how quickly he broke when Fact to File started to turn the screw down the back the last day. I would be less concerned about the track than most as a festival record of 22 is hardly a massive concern and Townend knows where he needs to be positioned to temper the worst of the right jumping tendancies. Found a Fifty has benefitted from 2 relatively steady races and probably won’t get a race to allow his finishing speed to win out here. Il Etait Temps is probably just one of those nearly horses who never runs a bad race but is always just a few pounds off what is required on the big days and is destined for bridesmaid duties again here. The slightly suprising conclusion I ended up coming to was that Quilixios was the value left in the race. A former Triumph winner he has the necessary class and course form. The year after a Triumph win is always a tough period for any horse as can be seen by how WPM has changed his training program for the likes of Lossiemouth. There was nothing wrong with how Quilixios put Mister Policeman (an early season hype horse for Closutton) to the sword. Mister Policeman bounced straight back from that with an easy win the next day out and both Quilixios and the horse that came second to him that day Sa Fureur are probably both underrated. Again the double is also the play with Sa Fureur a perfect fit for the Grand Annual off 145.
1pt ew Quilixios 7/1
.5pts ew Quilixios/Sa Fureur double
Ultima:
Looking at the top of the market it’s amazing how short some
of the talking horses are off all time high marks. Meetingofthewaters is a full
17lbs higher than when winning at Leopardstown last time and Stumptown comes
here 12lbs higher than when he just failed to get up in the Kim Muir last year.
On the other hand the 3rd and 4th from last years race
come here 2lb better and 5lb worse than
when winning the race behind Corach Rambler and Fastorslow last year. The
Goffer seems laid out for the race and is the right favourite here. Monbeg
Genius has the National as his main target but really needs a performance here
in first time cheekpieces to make that look a realistic target and clearly has
the ability to make the frame off his current mark. Slightly interesting is Ben Pauling Twig whose prominent racing style should be an advantage here if the last day was a case of something being off rather than being found out at a higher level
.25pts ew The Goffer 13/2
.5pts ew Monbeg Genius 12/1
.25pts ew Twig 25/1
Champion Hurdle:
A race for watching and enjoying. I have a bet from earlier in the season on State Man and even though I’d rather back than lay at the current prices I won’t be having a bet on the day.
Mares Hurdle:
Another race where I have no real argument with the short priced fav. There are a couple of notable horses if you are looking for something in the betting without markets. Gala Marceu would be half the price she is if it wasn’t for flopping the last day when Willie admitted leaving her short of work. The only horse to ever have beaten Lossiemouth and on her best form would go close with more proven stamina than the favourite. Lantry Lady is the other intriguing horse on only her 3rd start but already shaping into a 150+ hurdler and at big prices if I was to have a bet I would probably start with those 2.
Boodles:
Honestly haven’t a clue on this one and could spend the whole week looking and still not figure it out. I had thought maybe Karia de Blaises might be being overlooked but having halved in price on Sunday that ship has sailed and nothing here for me.
NH Chase:
I can’t have the Irish here. Corbett’s Cross is very classy but with a tendancy to jump like a piano it could be a long 3m6f for him. Embassy Gardens fairly blew out last year in the Albert Bartlett and couldn’t touch him at these prices. Taking a lot on faith with Salvador Ziggy who bled badly last time out in the US and hasn’t been seen since. I had been hoping Apple Away would go to the Ultima and leave a nice double here with Kilbeg King but both declared here and with Apple Away a G1 winning hurdler I think he could improve past Kilbeg King to land this at a big price.
1pt Apple Away 10/1
Wednesday:
Gallagher Hurdle – a tricky start to an even trickier day. Hard to fault Ballyburn and what he’s done this season (unless like me you were left holding a Supreme docket at a big price). The record of 2m G1 winners stepping up in trip for this race is also formidable and Willie probably just called it right in the end. Usually this would set up a great ew betting race at least but seeing I’le Altantique at 4/1 on the bookies screens vs 7.8 on Betfair makes even backing something to run into a place a tough ask. I think I’le Atlantique is a very good horse but given the opposition and the way the race is likely to play out he seems destined for second. If someone did offer me 25s ew on Mercurey I would prob nibble for an interest. A mercurial horse that was very aptly named he is clearly hard to keep right but when he is right it does seem like they believe the sky is the limit for him but another G1 here that I will probably be forced to watch from the sidelines.
Brown Advisory – spent a long time trying to talk myself into opposing Fact to File at evens here but tbh even though he’s never raced over the distance before the breathtaking performance he gave at the DRF over 2m5f makes it hard to make a case for backing anything else. Stay Away Fay is rock solid and loves the course and the more stamina comes into play the more he will love it. I think F2F has to stay to win this because I think this is going to be run at a crazy pace for a 3m race and evens on him staying is probably about fair. For a bet I’ll be looking at the betting without market and with Broadway Boy and Fact to File tearing it up out front I would be pretty confident Stay Away Fay will pick off everyone else once they hit the hill and at 11/8 that is my only way into the race at the minute.
1pt Stay Away Fay (betting w/o Fact to File) 11/8
Coral Cup – another race full of intrigue but one that probably revolves around who JP backs and whether Nicky’s horses turn up on Tuesday. If Jeriko de Reponet and in particular Iberico Lord run well on Tuesday it would be impossible not to want to back Dodiethegreat here off the back of the run the last day in the Betfair hurdle. Since then the first has been supplemented to the Champion Hurdle, the second has become County Hurdle fav (L’eau du Sud) and the horses he split in 3rd and 5th more or less dead heated in the Imperial Cup on Saturday. If Nicky has his stable right get the cash down early because this horse could go off 5/1 and stick him in a double with L’eau du Sud for a nice payday on the double come Friday. The other horse I can’t help but be drawn to is Brazil. JP has 2 runners here – the fav Sa Majeste who is probably flattered by his win over Noble Yeats in the Limerick mud over Christmas when not really expected to show, and then he also has a horse that won a Boodles from just 3lb lower giving Gaelic Warrior 8lbs and a half length beating but comes off the back of a curious campaign and some betting patterns that make the connections of Yuften blush. Ideally by tomorrow night Sa Majeste will have shortened to 7/2 and Brazil will be friendless at 25/1 priming us for a great late gamble into a single digit SP.
1pt ew Dodiethegreat 7/1
.25pts ew Dodiethegreat/Leau du Sud
1pt ew Brazil (if he gets out to 20/1+ on Wednesday evening)
Champion Chase:
Market more or less right here maybe El Fabiolo a touch too short and Jonbon a shade too long but no massive opinion. Should be another fast run race and might put El Fabs jumping under just as much pressure as Jonbon. I have already backed Jonbon at 4/1 ew and once one of the bookies finally takes a chance and pushes him out to that price it’s a great bet to nothing getting most of our cash back when he inevitably trails in second.
1pt ew Jonbon (if he touches 4/1+)
Cross Country:
Actually a pretty interesting race although it all revolves around the top of the market. I think unfortunately Delta Works best days are behind him and even though Minella Indo was good over the course in November giving lots of weight away there was very little class in that race and this is an entirely different prospect. The best form this season belongs to Coko Beach though and he is now the highest rated of these horses after a win in the Troytown and a second in the Becher. He won’t be the first Elliot/Gigginstown horse to use this as a stepping stone to Aintree glory and would be a worthy favourite here. At 4/1 he’s a must bet. The other horse worth a mention is Foxy Jacks who beat next time winner Latenightpass here in November giving away 7lbs and even though up against it here if there are 4 places on offer 16/1 seems a do.
2pts ew Coko Beach 4/1
.25pts ew Foxy Jacks 16/1
Grand Annual – all going to plan we will already be sitting on a few nice doubles from Quilixios’ Tuesday victory. How good or bad Quilixios runs should inform whether you want to go again or cut your losses with Sa Furuer at this stage. One horse that should not be ignored though is Unexpected Party. A horse the Skeltons had been planning to win this race with last year only to not make the cut and ended up forced into running in the Turners where he wasn’t disgraced 8Ls off Stage Star and 4Ls off Mighty Potter despite racing over a trip than ideal. Won a Listed race easily on his reappearance before being given a ‘typical Skelton winter campaign’ to knock that mark all the way back to 138 from 146. At 16/1 this is a pile on for me.
1.5pts ew Unexpected Party 16/1
Thursday:
Turners – there is 16 fences in the Turners, that’s 16 times in the course of 5 mins or so that Facile Vega will be hanging in the air like a freeze frame while Grey Dawning and Ginny’s Destiny take a length or 2 out of him each time. He is the best horse but no horse can give up 20+ lengths in the air and win a decent G1. Fortunately his presence here will create value where previously none existed. If Willie is firing the first 2 days it’s hard to think FV isn’t backed in to close to favouritism by lunchtime Thursday and then will be the time to strike and get Grey Dawning on side. He’s 5/2 now but a bit of patience will hopefully see him the right side of 3/1 and can happily have a smallish bet at those levels.
Pertemps – a race that probably revolves around Gabby Cross’ qualifier in Punchestown although the horse to take out of it could be stable mate Popova who hasn’t been seen since and obviously thinks they have a workable mark there. Will be interesting to see who Rachel Blackmore rides and whoever she does is worth close attention.
Ryanair – hard to get away from Stage Star here for me. Envoi Allen is getting on and Banbridge will need the ground to dry quickly to be seen at his best. Conflated could be a danger if standing up but last years Turner winner and winner of this years PP Gold Cup SS would be fav here if he hadn’t got stuck in the bottomless ground on New Years Day and expect him to add to his tally at the track.
Stage Star 1.5pts ew 5/1
Stayer’s Hurdle – hard to oppose to Teahupoo but at 2/1 not exactly getting much in the way of value. WPM has a few ghosts of Cheltenham’s past here with Monkfish and Sir Gerhard likely runners. Sir Gerhard probably the one to give the favourite a race if he can stay the distance but probably have pennies at most in play here.
Plate Handicap – haven’t given a whole lot of thought to this. At this stage Shakeemupharry and Saint Felician are 2 of interest.
Mare’s Novice hurdle – looks to be a match. I would think Gordon has the best horse but better horses than that have gotten themselves beaten in this. That said if pushed I would have to have my money on Brighterdaysahead.
Kim Muir – the handicap king has drawn my attention to Fakir d’Alenes best form which is somewhat obscured by the alphabet soup of late. At a big price he is definitely a play here.
1pt ew Fakir D’Alene 33/1
Ok thats enough writing for one night. I guess I will return with a short Friday piece to finish things out. Hopefully we will be playing with the bookies money by then
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