So one final quick word to get us through to the end of the week. Hopefully the expected Unexpected Party on Wednesday has you all in a good spot to play with the bookies money for the final day. Is I had any doubts about winding down my blog they were quickly dispelled this evening. I went to collect an ante-post slip I had on Stateman at 6/1 from Christmas. I was kept waiting at the counter for 15 mins allegedly while they 'checked with head office that the price was right' while the cashier furiously typed my description into their system to ensure that that was the last time I would ever get a value bet down in that shop without head office being informed and my stake being limited to €20 win only SP. The bookie shops are dead and unless you are one side or the other of regular drug deals your custom will be viewed with all the suspicion of man in a trenchcoat loitering around the local playground. But before we wind down completely we will have one last blast to extract what we can from the camel coats.
Triumph:
The loss of Sir Gino barely diminishes this contest. A really intriguing battle all be it centring around Willies large contingent. The entire field seems tied together by the Spring Juvenile Hurdle form where 4 of the top 5 in the market finished within 2 1/4Ls of each other. The market seems a lot more confident of sorting through that pecking order than I could ever be and it seems like they all have some largely indeterminate amount of improvement left from that day. On the basis of being the largest price I would have to think Bunting is the best bet as on the evidence they all have largely similar chances of improving to the level required to win this. The one horse the market (and admittedly me) had largely overlooked is Mighty Bandit who destroyed Lark in the Morning on his debut before suffering nasal discharge after his race at Christmas and switching stables. His first run was incredible, his second forgivable. If after the Ballyseady garden centre January sale he had ended up staying with Gordon he would be a single digit price here. On that basis he has to be chanced as a saver.
1pt ew Bunting 11/1
.5pt ew Mighty Bandit 25/1
County:
Wow! It is rare that one of the handicaps is one of the races of the week for me but this race has everything. 3 incredibly strong formlines, 5 or 6 genuine superstar contenders and half the field with more weight in hand than Hulk Hogan in his hey day. Leau du Sud and Favoir represent the Betfair hurdle form which was already franked in the Imperial Cup and by the regard in which Iberico Lord is clearly held. By all accounts Leau du Sud wasn't even fit that day and Skelton felt he just need to get a run into him which hints at big improvement from that already high level and is clearly the stable choice here ahead of Favoir. King of Kingsfield and Absurde probably have the strongest formline behind Ballyburn and Slade Steel in Leopardstown although the pecking order here is less clear and Absurde's exploits on the flat winning the Ebor and 6th in a Melbourne Cup Should see him improve past KoK as he gets the hang of hurdling. The Magical Zoe/Zenta/So Scottish line would normally be enough to playing tricast in a race like this but its so hot this year they likely just wont be good enough.
1pt ew Leau du Sud 5/1
1pt ew Absurde 9/1
.25pts reverse forecast Absurde/King of Kingsfield
Albert Bartlett:
Another quality and competitive race. Reading Tommy Wrong is probably the classiest horse in the field and definitely the most likely winner. (Hopefully a place delivers a bit of cash from our ew treble earlier in the week!) However this is a race where the classiest horse doesn't always win. Particularly in a slog on soft ground. There is a case to be made for half a dozen of these but one that has rock solid form and looks like will improve for the step up in trip is Lecky Watson. You could argue his worst performance of the season was 4th 7Ls behind the favourite in the Lalor's of Naas. Having previously run Slade Steel to .5Ls and come 4th in last season's champion bumper he is clearly no mug despite not getting his head in front much.
1pt ew Lecky Watson 11/1
Gold Cup:
Look I think Galopin wins and wins easy..that said he is 11/10 and having backed him at 3s i really dont feel the need to go in again. That said there is probably nothing wrong with backing him at this price. He is the best horse and has the best trainer and will turn up here firing. But looking through the market for a bit of value Corach Rambler at around 16/1 looks to be the each way value. Loves the track and has a real touch of class. Beat Fastorslow the second fav in the Ultima last year albeit getting 5lb and really can't see him being that far away tomorrow. Could easily come out best of the rest and definitely and good price to guarantee some real shouting value.
0.5pts ew Corach Rambler
Hunter Chase:
The fav here is getting very short seemingly as people cotton onto the stamina concerns around Ferns Lock who is probably the classier of the 2 horses. Billaway is an aging monkey that i wouldn't back with monopoly money and Sine Nomine has gone from an interesting outsider to a 'talking horse' probably on the back of the excellent Rhys Williams giving him a good mention in his column. That only leaves Premier Magic. More impressive than his win last year and follow up stroll at Hunter Chase day he has gone 3 from 3 in his points this season including a 10L victory over keyed up and race fit Torygraph by 10Ls at Sheriff Hutton. Seems sure to run his race and will be involved at the finish.
1.5pts ew Premier Magic 7/1
Mares Chase:
Did spend quite a time on this race trying to makes arguements for getting Dino Blue beat and it all really comes down to whether she stays or not as her 2m form is well clear here. Despite havein nearly a stone in hand if it is still soft tomorrow I would struggle to be a backer at around even money and will be a glutton for punishment in going back in on Riviere D'Etel (albeit at smaller stakes than last year). The pick of her form is up with the best here but can be hit and miss and probably prefers to run right handed. That said was finally finding a bit of rhythm last year after jumping like a piano for the first mile and then came down after jumping into another horse as she cruised into contention. At 18/1 I can forgive her many sins although will probably be watching most of the race from behind the couch.
Martin Pipe:
Like all good pantomines you need to finish leaving people happy and thinking the best is yet to come and so it is fitting that the last horse to be tipped here is called Better Days Ahead. The market is dominated by 2 of the seasons hype horse Quai de Borbon and Waterford Whispers however 2 horse further down the list should be dominating this. Ocastle des Mottes went off fav for the infamous Betfair Hurdle (see L'eau du Sud above) and despite having to be reshod at the start and meeting trouble at every possible point was in contention to 2 out before fading to 8th. He has a live chance of justifying that SP tomorrow in what is likely a slightly softer field. But he may just still find one too good in Better Days Ahead. Here off 140 but is surely a 150+ horse. Was 5Ls off Slade Steel in Navan before attempting to give Supreme 4th Asian Master 15lbs when going down by 10Ls the last day. Will be a graded horse in time and will take down a nice pot here tomorrow.
2.5pts ew Better Days Ahead 10/1
0.5pts ew Ocastle des Mottes 16/1
One more tune! One more tune!
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