Monday, 28 December 2009
Welsh National
0.5pts e/w Halcon Genelardais 10/1 (Ladbrokes): Sometimes you can do worse than back the best horse in the race. This guy has finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd in the this race the last 3 years and has a little less weight this time around thanks to Mon Mome running. Bottomless ground should mean there aren't a huge amount of horses around at the business end of this. Hard to believe this guy won't
3rd day of Leopardstown
We edged our profits for the year up to 13.17pts yesterday thanks to the guaranteed prices offered by the bookies as both Petit Robin and Bandstand drifted from the EP's. Today looks like a tricky card with some races that will be an awful lot better for watching than for betting but we'll do our best anyway.
1pt Whatuthink 12.0 (betfair) - 1.30 Leopardstown: This is a slightly tentative choice. I narrowed the field down to 3 pretty quickly based mainly on formlines through Pandorama and Major Finnegan. I might be a bit rash in dismissing Catch Me so quickly but on a fairly shaky line through Caim Hill I put him to one side. Pandorama has done nothing wrong and is the class of the field however despite his exploits over hurdles last season he hasn't done enough over fences to justify as short a price as 5/4. He also has never raced over 3m (apart from a PTP) although Meade seems to think it will suit. Weapon's Amnesty is a favourite horse of mine and I did nibble at the early price of 7/1. That is now gone and at 6/1 I probably won't get involved again although you know the trip will be no problem and he will battle all the way to the line. Had a solid run the last time in Newcastle but will need to step up on that to win here. Whatuthink is a horse that should improve for the step up in trip the main question is his jumping which was his downfall last time out against Pandorama. He is a winter horse and with a bit of class having won a good hurdle here 2 years ago and hopefully the schooling will have worked. At 11/1 it's prob worth taking a chance although this is not a race to go broke on.
1.5pts Oscar Dan Dan 6/1 (general) 2.00 Leopardstown: Lie Forrit does have some good form in handicaps over in the UK but this is a step up. Oscar Dan Dan has a G1 to his name already this season and can't be faulted apart from tipping up at Navan. I think the step up in trip will help and he can confirm the form with the Ninetieth Minute which should be enough for this.
1pt What A Friend 5/1 (Paddy Power) 2.35 Leopardstown: Not a massively creative pick and I would expect this horse to go off a bit shorter given the world and his mother will be tipping it up today. Had a good run in the Hennessy behind Denman even if he was getting 22lbs. Nicholls didn't send him over for the airmiles and although on last seasons form he has a bit to find with Cooldine it is worth noting the respective trainer comments. This is a stepping stone to bigger things for Cooldine, whereas for What a Friend this is the pinnacle of his season. Mullins won't be overly disappointed to settle for some place money today with his eye firmly on Cheltenham in March.
Hopefully will have a post later looking at football and the Welsh National. Happy punting
1pt Whatuthink 12.0 (betfair) - 1.30 Leopardstown: This is a slightly tentative choice. I narrowed the field down to 3 pretty quickly based mainly on formlines through Pandorama and Major Finnegan. I might be a bit rash in dismissing Catch Me so quickly but on a fairly shaky line through Caim Hill I put him to one side. Pandorama has done nothing wrong and is the class of the field however despite his exploits over hurdles last season he hasn't done enough over fences to justify as short a price as 5/4. He also has never raced over 3m (apart from a PTP) although Meade seems to think it will suit. Weapon's Amnesty is a favourite horse of mine and I did nibble at the early price of 7/1. That is now gone and at 6/1 I probably won't get involved again although you know the trip will be no problem and he will battle all the way to the line. Had a solid run the last time in Newcastle but will need to step up on that to win here. Whatuthink is a horse that should improve for the step up in trip the main question is his jumping which was his downfall last time out against Pandorama. He is a winter horse and with a bit of class having won a good hurdle here 2 years ago and hopefully the schooling will have worked. At 11/1 it's prob worth taking a chance although this is not a race to go broke on.
1.5pts Oscar Dan Dan 6/1 (general) 2.00 Leopardstown: Lie Forrit does have some good form in handicaps over in the UK but this is a step up. Oscar Dan Dan has a G1 to his name already this season and can't be faulted apart from tipping up at Navan. I think the step up in trip will help and he can confirm the form with the Ninetieth Minute which should be enough for this.
1pt What A Friend 5/1 (Paddy Power) 2.35 Leopardstown: Not a massively creative pick and I would expect this horse to go off a bit shorter given the world and his mother will be tipping it up today. Had a good run in the Hennessy behind Denman even if he was getting 22lbs. Nicholls didn't send him over for the airmiles and although on last seasons form he has a bit to find with Cooldine it is worth noting the respective trainer comments. This is a stepping stone to bigger things for Cooldine, whereas for What a Friend this is the pinnacle of his season. Mullins won't be overly disappointed to settle for some place money today with his eye firmly on Cheltenham in March.
Hopefully will have a post later looking at football and the Welsh National. Happy punting
Sunday, 27 December 2009
On the 2nd Day of Leopardstown PP gave to me
Great day yesterday with a profit of 17.76pts bringing us to 12.87pts overall. Hopefully we can build on that today.
1pt Made in Taipan 17/2 1.25 Leopardstown (Will Hill): Looks to be a bit overpriced based on his runs this season. No disgrace in losing out by 1/2L to Big Zeb the last time out and was still in contention when falling 2 out first time out against Tranquil Sea. Ground looks to be too good for Golden Silver to shine. Not expecting much from the rest who are mostly has beens or never was horses. I won't be surprised if Tranquil Sea has the beating of our choice but with the prices so far apart I have to side with Made in Taipan.
1.5pts Some Present 13/8 1.55 Leopardstown (Stan James): I'm finding it hard to get away from this horse. Comfortably best of the rest in the Royal Bond behind Dunguib and a solid run before that in Cheltenham. Probably the Ruby factor on Fionngas is what is keeping the price so attractive.
1pt e/w Bandstand 9/2 2.15 Southwell (Paddy Power): Purely an each way play with a well regarded newcomer.
1pt Petit Robin 9/4 2.40 Kempton (general): When you can find an excuse not to back every other horse in the race you got to take whats left. Crack Away Jack should in time develop into a good chaser but jumped poorly the last day out and it is one thing to school well it's another to do it on the track flat to the boards so had to scratch him. Fix the Rib is another horse that until I see him do something special I'm not going to believe he is special and no way I would make him second favourite here. I would love to see Well Chief do well but he isn't the same horse he was before injury despite some respectably results, also he is not getting any younger. Petit Robin always runs well fresh and you could easily argue that he only got beat by Well Chief at Cheltenham because he had the courage to try to beat Master Minded. He also has good scope for improvement over the summer months and I'll gladly side with him here.
Thats all for now but I will be trying to make some sense of the handicaps during the early races and if I find anything I will post it up. Happy punting.
1pt Made in Taipan 17/2 1.25 Leopardstown (Will Hill): Looks to be a bit overpriced based on his runs this season. No disgrace in losing out by 1/2L to Big Zeb the last time out and was still in contention when falling 2 out first time out against Tranquil Sea. Ground looks to be too good for Golden Silver to shine. Not expecting much from the rest who are mostly has beens or never was horses. I won't be surprised if Tranquil Sea has the beating of our choice but with the prices so far apart I have to side with Made in Taipan.
1.5pts Some Present 13/8 1.55 Leopardstown (Stan James): I'm finding it hard to get away from this horse. Comfortably best of the rest in the Royal Bond behind Dunguib and a solid run before that in Cheltenham. Probably the Ruby factor on Fionngas is what is keeping the price so attractive.
1pt e/w Bandstand 9/2 2.15 Southwell (Paddy Power): Purely an each way play with a well regarded newcomer.
1pt Petit Robin 9/4 2.40 Kempton (general): When you can find an excuse not to back every other horse in the race you got to take whats left. Crack Away Jack should in time develop into a good chaser but jumped poorly the last day out and it is one thing to school well it's another to do it on the track flat to the boards so had to scratch him. Fix the Rib is another horse that until I see him do something special I'm not going to believe he is special and no way I would make him second favourite here. I would love to see Well Chief do well but he isn't the same horse he was before injury despite some respectably results, also he is not getting any younger. Petit Robin always runs well fresh and you could easily argue that he only got beat by Well Chief at Cheltenham because he had the courage to try to beat Master Minded. He also has good scope for improvement over the summer months and I'll gladly side with him here.
Thats all for now but I will be trying to make some sense of the handicaps during the early races and if I find anything I will post it up. Happy punting.
Saturday, 26 December 2009
Updated: On the first day of Leopardstown..
Well given that the weather has deprived me of my racing post for today I'm going to start with football. There seems to be a small bit of value about in the premiership today:
1.5pts Burnley 16/11 (expect.com): Burnley are ahead of Bolton in the table at the half way point and are still nearly 6/4 to win against them at home. Add in the fact that all but 1 of those points have come at home makes this a definite back - if anything 1.5pts is being conservative.
1.5 pts Portsmouth 3.8 (betfair): Portsmouth seem to have turned the corner and have a full strength squad heading to Upton park. West Ham on the other hand are struggling both with form and injuries. I expect Pompey to finish the year above West Ham so seeing the Hammers chalked up at 6/5 or worse means there must be value on the other side.
1pt Mosstown 19/1 (betfair): Only 1 3/4L seperated Mosstown from the 9/2 second fav on his hurdling debut in bottomless ground at Navan. On better ground he has the potential to turn around the form. Whether he can see off the odds on fav is another thing but worth a bet at these prices.
1.5pt Osana 3/1 (paddy Power): Sizing Europe is a talking horse but despite him being very impressive in his chase starts so far you have to question what he's beaten. Osana ws at least as good over hurdles and hasn't put a foot wrong yet over fences. S.E. could be a super star but I'll pay to see him prove it.
1.5pts Osana to be placed 1.82 (betfair): Not convinced by Capt Cee Bee and have this as a 2 horse race. If S.E. does turn out to be the business at least we can limit our losses with this bet.
1pt e/w Menorah 11/2 (stan james): A great e/w bet with the structure of the race.
2.5pts Go Native 9/4 (Paddy Power): I do not get the hype around Starluck - he has beaten nothing and for him to be 4/1 and shortening for this race is lunacy. Go Native was an above average Supreme winner last year and continues to improve. If I was pricing this race it would be something like 8/11 Go Native 5/4 Binocular, 10/1 Starluck and pick your price the rest.
4pts Go Native to be placed 1.89 (Betfair): See above - money for jam!
1pt e/w Madison du Berlais w/o Kauto 9/2 (Ladbrokes): Imperial Commander doesn't seem to be able to handle right-handed tracks and would ideally like a few hills thrown in. Him aside I'm unconvinced Barber Shop is anywhere near good enough. Deep Purple still has a bit to prove. M de B always improves from his first run of the season and likes the track. Even though Denman was a bit below form when M de B beat him last season the 47L's back to Alberta's Run shows it was a pretty solid run - if he is 47L's clear of Albertas Run today we'll be collecting
1.5pts Burnley 16/11 (expect.com): Burnley are ahead of Bolton in the table at the half way point and are still nearly 6/4 to win against them at home. Add in the fact that all but 1 of those points have come at home makes this a definite back - if anything 1.5pts is being conservative.
1.5 pts Portsmouth 3.8 (betfair): Portsmouth seem to have turned the corner and have a full strength squad heading to Upton park. West Ham on the other hand are struggling both with form and injuries. I expect Pompey to finish the year above West Ham so seeing the Hammers chalked up at 6/5 or worse means there must be value on the other side.
1pt Mosstown 19/1 (betfair): Only 1 3/4L seperated Mosstown from the 9/2 second fav on his hurdling debut in bottomless ground at Navan. On better ground he has the potential to turn around the form. Whether he can see off the odds on fav is another thing but worth a bet at these prices.
1.5pt Osana 3/1 (paddy Power): Sizing Europe is a talking horse but despite him being very impressive in his chase starts so far you have to question what he's beaten. Osana ws at least as good over hurdles and hasn't put a foot wrong yet over fences. S.E. could be a super star but I'll pay to see him prove it.
1.5pts Osana to be placed 1.82 (betfair): Not convinced by Capt Cee Bee and have this as a 2 horse race. If S.E. does turn out to be the business at least we can limit our losses with this bet.
1pt e/w Menorah 11/2 (stan james): A great e/w bet with the structure of the race.
2.5pts Go Native 9/4 (Paddy Power): I do not get the hype around Starluck - he has beaten nothing and for him to be 4/1 and shortening for this race is lunacy. Go Native was an above average Supreme winner last year and continues to improve. If I was pricing this race it would be something like 8/11 Go Native 5/4 Binocular, 10/1 Starluck and pick your price the rest.
4pts Go Native to be placed 1.89 (Betfair): See above - money for jam!
1pt e/w Madison du Berlais w/o Kauto 9/2 (Ladbrokes): Imperial Commander doesn't seem to be able to handle right-handed tracks and would ideally like a few hills thrown in. Him aside I'm unconvinced Barber Shop is anywhere near good enough. Deep Purple still has a bit to prove. M de B always improves from his first run of the season and likes the track. Even though Denman was a bit below form when M de B beat him last season the 47L's back to Alberta's Run shows it was a pretty solid run - if he is 47L's clear of Albertas Run today we'll be collecting
Saturday, 19 December 2009
Time to get the cars keys out
OK I haven't abandoned this I just have been struggling to keep up to date with sport in the wilds of the Australian bush. But rest assured with Christmas on the horizon I will be finding somewhere with easy access to TV internet and racingpost and intend to have daily updates from the 26th onwards - still time to recover to positive territory by the year end. Currently -4.89pts.
This post is just to highlight the lunacy in the Celtic office. They have an aertel special:
10pts Portsmouth not to be relegated @ 15/8: Everything has a price and this is not it - probably should be closer to 11/8. Everyone knows the saying that bottom at Christmas always gets relegated but Portsmouth seem to have improved a bit from their horror start and there are plenty of teams not too far ahead of them. They are still more likely than not to go down but at this price I will be raiding the piggy bank to get some of it.
This post is just to highlight the lunacy in the Celtic office. They have an aertel special:
10pts Portsmouth not to be relegated @ 15/8: Everything has a price and this is not it - probably should be closer to 11/8. Everyone knows the saying that bottom at Christmas always gets relegated but Portsmouth seem to have improved a bit from their horror start and there are plenty of teams not too far ahead of them. They are still more likely than not to go down but at this price I will be raiding the piggy bank to get some of it.
Tuesday, 24 November 2009
A bad day for Ireland, a bad day for football and a bad day for the blog!
The title just about sums it up. A 15.9pt loss on the day leaving us -2.39 points in total. Only found one interesting bet on tonights games unfortunately but hopefully it should get us back above sea level:
2pts Sevilla @2.34 (betfair): I had the misfortune of seeing the first game between these 2 teams where UU set about kicking Sevilla as their only gameplan. OK they have amassed 5pts to date but draws at home against Rangers and Stuttgart and a win against a Rangers team set on helping them in any way possible including scoring 2 goals for them doesn't look as impressive as their position in the table suggests and I wouldn't even have them as a certainty for UEFA cup football yet.
2pts Sevilla @2.34 (betfair): I had the misfortune of seeing the first game between these 2 teams where UU set about kicking Sevilla as their only gameplan. OK they have amassed 5pts to date but draws at home against Rangers and Stuttgart and a win against a Rangers team set on helping them in any way possible including scoring 2 goals for them doesn't look as impressive as their position in the table suggests and I wouldn't even have them as a certainty for UEFA cup football yet.
Wednesday, 4 November 2009
OK so the running profit to date is 13.51pts not bad considering that I haven't had a chance to update as regularly as I would like. This week all our punting takes 2nd place to Ireland's attempts to get to South Africa. There are a few interesting bets which may help us drown our sorrows if we fail:
2pts Draw @ 4.4 Betfair (Ireland v France): Usually my write up on the second leg of a 2 leg match would go on about how these games always have more goals and hence less goals than your average game. However everything has a price that I start to get interested in it at. Suggesting that this game has a less than 23% of ending in a draw is a slight over-reaction. I know the last 10-15 mins of this game will likely be ridiculously gung-ho and open but even still we don't score many goals and the French don't need to get too ambitous in the early stages. Also if Ireland were to get an early goal it would put the pressure back on the French to search for an equaliser and they have the players to hurt any defence when they stop fighting each other and put their minds to playing football. If we do manage to win I'm sure no one will mond losing their cash on this one!
Buy total goals 2 pt per goal @ 12.7 Sporting Index (this is the total on the 5 WC Qualifiers inc Uruguay v Costa Rica): As i said above second legs always have a higher average number of goals mainly due to a frantic last 20 mins this combines all the games and reduces the spread for us. Get stuck in.
0.5pts Richard Dunne to score first 33/1 (Ladbrokes): We are going to persist with this as Ireland are most dangerous when they get a set piece and he is one of our key target men. If we do get the breakthrough he could be the one to do it for us.
2pts Draw @ 4.4 Betfair (Ireland v France): Usually my write up on the second leg of a 2 leg match would go on about how these games always have more goals and hence less goals than your average game. However everything has a price that I start to get interested in it at. Suggesting that this game has a less than 23% of ending in a draw is a slight over-reaction. I know the last 10-15 mins of this game will likely be ridiculously gung-ho and open but even still we don't score many goals and the French don't need to get too ambitous in the early stages. Also if Ireland were to get an early goal it would put the pressure back on the French to search for an equaliser and they have the players to hurt any defence when they stop fighting each other and put their minds to playing football. If we do manage to win I'm sure no one will mond losing their cash on this one!
Buy total goals 2 pt per goal @ 12.7 Sporting Index (this is the total on the 5 WC Qualifiers inc Uruguay v Costa Rica): As i said above second legs always have a higher average number of goals mainly due to a frantic last 20 mins this combines all the games and reduces the spread for us. Get stuck in.
0.5pts Richard Dunne to score first 33/1 (Ladbrokes): We are going to persist with this as Ireland are most dangerous when they get a set piece and he is one of our key target men. If we do get the breakthrough he could be the one to do it for us.
Saturday, 24 October 2009
Ok things have been a bit hectic lately so haven't had a chance to keep this updated but should have a bit of time next week as I prepare for an all out assault on the Melbourne Cup to tidy things up and get a few new articles up.
Some interesting bets on this weeks football though first:
Sunderland 2pts @2.7 (Betfair): People seem to continue to underestimate the improvement Sunderland have made this season. They are not a popular team and keep getting overlooked which suits us down to the ground. Keep pounding the bookies on this one until they wise up.
Liverpool 1.5pts @3.1(Betfair): There is no team in the world Liverpool should be this price against at Anfield. Yes Liverpool have injury worries yes they are on a bad run but people have over-reacted to that. Throw in the fact that Rooney is a doubtful starter for United and this looks cracking value.
First half to be the highest scoring half Barcelona game 2pts @ 11/5 (totesport): Another bet that I'vew flagged up before and continues to be overpriced.
Finally we have proper racing back with us and if you have time to sift through the card at Aintree there will be the usual fantastic value at a real horses for courses track. Unfortunately I don't so I just checked out the big race.
Tidal Bay 1.5pts @ 3/1 (Paddy Power): Track suited to his style of running and has previous form here. Was below par last season but if anywhere near the form of the previous season he should take this down.
Reve de Sivola 2pts @ 6/4 (Paddy Power): This horse will quite possibly drift during the day as the mugs money comes for the Ruby/Nicholls combo so the guaranteed price with PP looks like a good option. This horse was just off the very best last season. Ruby's horse could be anything but I'll pay to see him beat this lad on his first trip over hurdles.
Some interesting bets on this weeks football though first:
Sunderland 2pts @2.7 (Betfair): People seem to continue to underestimate the improvement Sunderland have made this season. They are not a popular team and keep getting overlooked which suits us down to the ground. Keep pounding the bookies on this one until they wise up.
Liverpool 1.5pts @3.1(Betfair): There is no team in the world Liverpool should be this price against at Anfield. Yes Liverpool have injury worries yes they are on a bad run but people have over-reacted to that. Throw in the fact that Rooney is a doubtful starter for United and this looks cracking value.
First half to be the highest scoring half Barcelona game 2pts @ 11/5 (totesport): Another bet that I'vew flagged up before and continues to be overpriced.
Finally we have proper racing back with us and if you have time to sift through the card at Aintree there will be the usual fantastic value at a real horses for courses track. Unfortunately I don't so I just checked out the big race.
Tidal Bay 1.5pts @ 3/1 (Paddy Power): Track suited to his style of running and has previous form here. Was below par last season but if anywhere near the form of the previous season he should take this down.
Reve de Sivola 2pts @ 6/4 (Paddy Power): This horse will quite possibly drift during the day as the mugs money comes for the Ruby/Nicholls combo so the guaranteed price with PP looks like a good option. This horse was just off the very best last season. Ruby's horse could be anything but I'll pay to see him beat this lad on his first trip over hurdles.
Friday, 9 October 2009
Believe in the Honey Monster
Ok. Just a quick update - a bit tight on time at the mo, but we are back in healthy profit after a nice 11pt+ profit last weekend.
2pts Russia (v. Germany) Ladbrokes 6/4: Top of the table clash that will decide who gets to avoid the playoffs. A must win game for Russia while a draw should be enough for Germany. Therefore I would be expecting an open game particularly towards the end. Was originally going to advise a lay of the draw but I think there is slightly more value in trusting in the genius of Hiddink to shine through again and Russia to get the result they need in the intimidating atmosphere in Moscow.
2pts Bellamy to score at anytime Expekt.com 39/10: I opened an account just to have this bet! I think Finland have kept one clean sheet in their last 10 games and although Wales are a pretty poor team a player of Bellamy's class should be looking forward to a fruitful day even if Wales have their own problems at the back.
0.5pts Richard Dunne to score first 33/1: The Italians will be quite happy to sit deep and not take any chances which is reflected in the 15/8 quotes about the draw. With that being the case Irelands best chance of breaking down the Italian resistance may be from a set piece with Dunne being our key man for corners and free kicks. He already netted twice in this campaign with both goals coming in our tough games against Bulgaria. Hopefully he can deliver again (and not just for the sake of our bank balance). If so he can pay for the plane to South Africa!
Wow nearly missed a good one - a good example of people over-reacting to a team needing to win a game is the price on Portugal to win tonight. They have struggled to score all campaign and are 1.16 to beat Hungary tonight. I think they probably will get their 3 pts but I would put anyone off laying that. The bet I will advise though is:
2pts Hungary +2 on the Asian Handicap @1.86 (Betfair) - they have lost the 3 games they have played against the groups 3 heavyweights by a single goal and there is no reason to believe they are going to Lisbbon to lie down. Just have to hope that the 2nd best player in the world doesn't have one of his nights!
2pts Russia (v. Germany) Ladbrokes 6/4: Top of the table clash that will decide who gets to avoid the playoffs. A must win game for Russia while a draw should be enough for Germany. Therefore I would be expecting an open game particularly towards the end. Was originally going to advise a lay of the draw but I think there is slightly more value in trusting in the genius of Hiddink to shine through again and Russia to get the result they need in the intimidating atmosphere in Moscow.
2pts Bellamy to score at anytime Expekt.com 39/10: I opened an account just to have this bet! I think Finland have kept one clean sheet in their last 10 games and although Wales are a pretty poor team a player of Bellamy's class should be looking forward to a fruitful day even if Wales have their own problems at the back.
0.5pts Richard Dunne to score first 33/1: The Italians will be quite happy to sit deep and not take any chances which is reflected in the 15/8 quotes about the draw. With that being the case Irelands best chance of breaking down the Italian resistance may be from a set piece with Dunne being our key man for corners and free kicks. He already netted twice in this campaign with both goals coming in our tough games against Bulgaria. Hopefully he can deliver again (and not just for the sake of our bank balance). If so he can pay for the plane to South Africa!
Wow nearly missed a good one - a good example of people over-reacting to a team needing to win a game is the price on Portugal to win tonight. They have struggled to score all campaign and are 1.16 to beat Hungary tonight. I think they probably will get their 3 pts but I would put anyone off laying that. The bet I will advise though is:
2pts Hungary +2 on the Asian Handicap @1.86 (Betfair) - they have lost the 3 games they have played against the groups 3 heavyweights by a single goal and there is no reason to believe they are going to Lisbbon to lie down. Just have to hope that the 2nd best player in the world doesn't have one of his nights!
Saturday, 3 October 2009
Lets Play Darts!
OK so the last set of bets clawed back 0.66 pts of our deficit to leave us 1.99pts down. There’s a lot on this weekend and I’m probably not going to get a chance to cover everything but there are definitely some good bets about. I’m going to start this weekend’s preview in the graveyard of talent that is the SPL as we have the first Old Firm clash of the season on Sunday.
2pts Rangers @8/5 (Ladbrokes): Hovering around the 6/4 mark on the exchanges this is easily big enough to make a play on the home team when there is little to choose between the 2 sides in what will as always be an electric atmosphere.
1pt Boyd to be first goal scorer @ 6/1(Boyles): Boyles cash back special this weekend is money back on the first, last and anytime goal scorer markets if there is someone sent off in this game. Usually this is not enough to overcome the margin on these sorts of markets but in a game where there is about a 30% chance of a red card you could nearly pick any man on the pitch and play this market. The reason for putting Boyd up is a combination of the favourite long shot bias effect (generally bookies have less of an edge on shorter price events than on longer odds events – punters effectively pay a premium for higher variance for some perverse reason!)and also to help reduce variance.
2pts 1st half to be the highest scoring half Almeria v Barcelona @ 11/5 (Boyles): I have to admit I’m stealing this tip from Mike Holden’s excellent blog on sportinglife.com which is always worth a read before you get stuck into your weekend football betting. Barca start fast and can wind down in the second half when the game is in the bag. Don’t expect Almeria’s resistance to last very long in this one.
3pts Phil Taylor to win the Darts Grand Prix @ 4/6(Boyles): The unusual format of this event can lead to some shock results in the first couple of rounds however Taylor is a prolific winner of this event (as with most darts events) and as reigning champ 4/6 seems a fair price. The offer of our money back on a loser if anyone should hit a 9 darter during the course of the event makes this worth our while.
1.5pts Wade to win the Darts Grand Prix w/o Taylor 10/3 (Boyles): I have been struggling to find the seeding for this event but on the reasonable assumption that he won’t meet Taylor before the final all going well I’m happy to take a chance on him making the final 2. Deserving of being favourite in this market and this also has the advantage of money back on a loser if we get a 9 darter.
Lay to lose 1pt Man Utd 1.22 (Betfair): You don’t hear of many people getting rich opposing the devils at Old Trafford but there is always a first. The 1/5 the bookies have chalked up seems a little too dismissive of the pretty solid looking Sunderland we’ve seen so far this season. Yeah this is probably money down the drain but at this price I can’t resist opposing a Man Utd side that I am not yet convinced by.
There is a great weekend of racing on in Longchamp this weekend and although I unfortunately haven’t had much of a chance to look over the form yet, but even if you don’t have a bet make sure to see the superstar that is Sea the Stars if you can. The one thing I would advise to look out for is crazy prices on Yeats in his race versus Kasbah Bliss. Expect a bit of French xenophobia with KB being over bet hopefully leaving us plenty of value with Yeats. If I get a chance I’ll post a proper racing preview but the imminent prospect of jumping into a dark underground river for some black water rafting makes it a pretty long shot. Gamble safely!
2pts Rangers @8/5 (Ladbrokes): Hovering around the 6/4 mark on the exchanges this is easily big enough to make a play on the home team when there is little to choose between the 2 sides in what will as always be an electric atmosphere.
1pt Boyd to be first goal scorer @ 6/1(Boyles): Boyles cash back special this weekend is money back on the first, last and anytime goal scorer markets if there is someone sent off in this game. Usually this is not enough to overcome the margin on these sorts of markets but in a game where there is about a 30% chance of a red card you could nearly pick any man on the pitch and play this market. The reason for putting Boyd up is a combination of the favourite long shot bias effect (generally bookies have less of an edge on shorter price events than on longer odds events – punters effectively pay a premium for higher variance for some perverse reason!)and also to help reduce variance.
2pts 1st half to be the highest scoring half Almeria v Barcelona @ 11/5 (Boyles): I have to admit I’m stealing this tip from Mike Holden’s excellent blog on sportinglife.com which is always worth a read before you get stuck into your weekend football betting. Barca start fast and can wind down in the second half when the game is in the bag. Don’t expect Almeria’s resistance to last very long in this one.
3pts Phil Taylor to win the Darts Grand Prix @ 4/6(Boyles): The unusual format of this event can lead to some shock results in the first couple of rounds however Taylor is a prolific winner of this event (as with most darts events) and as reigning champ 4/6 seems a fair price. The offer of our money back on a loser if anyone should hit a 9 darter during the course of the event makes this worth our while.
1.5pts Wade to win the Darts Grand Prix w/o Taylor 10/3 (Boyles): I have been struggling to find the seeding for this event but on the reasonable assumption that he won’t meet Taylor before the final all going well I’m happy to take a chance on him making the final 2. Deserving of being favourite in this market and this also has the advantage of money back on a loser if we get a 9 darter.
Lay to lose 1pt Man Utd 1.22 (Betfair): You don’t hear of many people getting rich opposing the devils at Old Trafford but there is always a first. The 1/5 the bookies have chalked up seems a little too dismissive of the pretty solid looking Sunderland we’ve seen so far this season. Yeah this is probably money down the drain but at this price I can’t resist opposing a Man Utd side that I am not yet convinced by.
There is a great weekend of racing on in Longchamp this weekend and although I unfortunately haven’t had much of a chance to look over the form yet, but even if you don’t have a bet make sure to see the superstar that is Sea the Stars if you can. The one thing I would advise to look out for is crazy prices on Yeats in his race versus Kasbah Bliss. Expect a bit of French xenophobia with KB being over bet hopefully leaving us plenty of value with Yeats. If I get a chance I’ll post a proper racing preview but the imminent prospect of jumping into a dark underground river for some black water rafting makes it a pretty long shot. Gamble safely!
Thursday, 24 September 2009
Weekend first thoughts
OK a disaster on the Europa league last week has pushed us into the unusually territory of being loss making with a loss of -2.65pts to date. Due to moving continent I missed out on a few previews but to be honest the Carling Cup is one of my least favorite competitions for betting on so the conclusion would probably have been no bet anyway.
On to this weekend.
Rip Van Winkle 2pts(QEII) 5/6 Paddy Power: I haven't really had the opportunity to see much in the way of flat racing this season, but one of my stars of last season was Rip Van Winkle and I always had him pegged as a classic winner this year. A niggling foot injury for the first have of the season and the emergence of a superstar in the form of Sea the Stars has confined him to a solitary group win this season. However he does seem to be improving now that his injury is behind him and I expect that he should have enough to account for Delegator. I'm nearly tempted to put up an O'Brien 1-2 with Mastercraftsman edging out Delegator for 2nd. But I'll settle for 2pts win with Rip
Aston Villa 1pt (v Blackburn) 7/5 Paddy Power: Villa seem to be getting their act together now with 6 wins on the trot in all competitions. They are not the team they were last season but play with the right mentality under O'Neill and should be good enough to extend their run against a pretty average Blackburn team.
Thursday, 17 September 2009
Europa League
Another 1.3pts profit from last night brings us to +1.8pts to date with 3 points still in play. Tonight it´s the UEFA cup and I think I´ve managed to dig out a little value on this too.
1 pt Valencia to win the Europa League 16/1 (Boylesports): They have managed to hang onto David Villa and David Silva and if they put their focus on this competition in the latter stages I would not want to be opposing them against the most definitely second tier teams of Europe.
0.75pts Sparta Prague clean sheet 5/2 (Paddy Power): Not the most exciting team to watch with 9 goals in their 7 league games to date. However all 4 home games have been clean sheets. Also a 3-1 home win vs Pananthanicos in the CL qualifying shows they are no mugs. Up against a PSV team that has gradually declined since Hiddink left. Tempted just to lay PSV but this could turn into a great game for anyone suffering from insomnia.
Sell bookings on Ath Bilbao v Aus Vienna @44 2 pts per card: Seems to be Bloms first ever UEFA game and usually referees like to ease themselves into the big leagues. Don´t expect him to want to grab the headlines.
Sell bookings on Everton v AEK @ 36 1 pt per card: Another inexperienced ref who´ll want to quietly move up through the ranks.
1 pt Valencia to win the Europa League 16/1 (Boylesports): They have managed to hang onto David Villa and David Silva and if they put their focus on this competition in the latter stages I would not want to be opposing them against the most definitely second tier teams of Europe.
0.75pts Sparta Prague clean sheet 5/2 (Paddy Power): Not the most exciting team to watch with 9 goals in their 7 league games to date. However all 4 home games have been clean sheets. Also a 3-1 home win vs Pananthanicos in the CL qualifying shows they are no mugs. Up against a PSV team that has gradually declined since Hiddink left. Tempted just to lay PSV but this could turn into a great game for anyone suffering from insomnia.
Sell bookings on Ath Bilbao v Aus Vienna @44 2 pts per card: Seems to be Bloms first ever UEFA game and usually referees like to ease themselves into the big leagues. Don´t expect him to want to grab the headlines.
Sell bookings on Everton v AEK @ 36 1 pt per card: Another inexperienced ref who´ll want to quietly move up through the ranks.
Wednesday, 16 September 2009
Champs League Wed
An acceptable start to the blogs tips with a 0.5pt profit from day 1. Onwards and upwards from here! Not much to get excited about in the match odds for tonight altho I wouldn´t put anyone off backing Olympiacos at 11/10 against AZ Alkmaar. Digging a bit deeper I found a few bets worth getting involved in:
2 pts Rangers 2/1 to qualify from group (Boylesports): This is purely an arb play they are 7/4 shots on Betfair you can lay it all back if you want (assumming Boyles will let you have more than 20c on it!)
1pt e/w Steven Gerrard to score first 4/1 (Paddy Power): Gerrard has a great scoring record in Europe and with the likelihood of a lot of goals here it´s the 4/3 you are getting on him being one of the first 5 goalscorers that makes makes this a very tasty bet.
1pt Olypiacos 6/4 to qualify from group (VC): I think Olympiacos´home record can give them the edge over a AZ Alkmaar team who may struggle to live up to increased expectations in the wake of their first Erdivisie in 28 years. Last season Olympiacos won 5-1 vs Benfica and 4-0 vs Hertha Berlin in the UEFA cup before crashing to a 3-1 defeat to St. Etienne.
1.5pt per card sell on Stuttgart v Ranger @ 36 SportingIndex: Busacca is consistently one of the more sensible referees and tends to average about 3 cards a game. Nothing here to suggest a bloodbath is on the cards.
1pt per card sell on Standard Liege v Arsenal @ 34 SportingIndex: Gonzalez keeps his cards in his pocket when it´s not a La Liga game. For European and international ties it is rare for him to ever stray above 3 yellows and often gives less.
2 pts Rangers 2/1 to qualify from group (Boylesports): This is purely an arb play they are 7/4 shots on Betfair you can lay it all back if you want (assumming Boyles will let you have more than 20c on it!)
1pt e/w Steven Gerrard to score first 4/1 (Paddy Power): Gerrard has a great scoring record in Europe and with the likelihood of a lot of goals here it´s the 4/3 you are getting on him being one of the first 5 goalscorers that makes makes this a very tasty bet.
1pt Olypiacos 6/4 to qualify from group (VC): I think Olympiacos´home record can give them the edge over a AZ Alkmaar team who may struggle to live up to increased expectations in the wake of their first Erdivisie in 28 years. Last season Olympiacos won 5-1 vs Benfica and 4-0 vs Hertha Berlin in the UEFA cup before crashing to a 3-1 defeat to St. Etienne.
1.5pt per card sell on Stuttgart v Ranger @ 36 SportingIndex: Busacca is consistently one of the more sensible referees and tends to average about 3 cards a game. Nothing here to suggest a bloodbath is on the cards.
1pt per card sell on Standard Liege v Arsenal @ 34 SportingIndex: Gonzalez keeps his cards in his pocket when it´s not a La Liga game. For European and international ties it is rare for him to ever stray above 3 yellows and often gives less.
Tuesday, 15 September 2009
Champions League Matchday 1
Not a huge amount jumping out betting wise for tonights games so just have 2 bets for small stakes to advise:
Marseilles 0.5 pt at 7/5 (v Milan) Boylesports. People like to think of the French league as a 1 team league but it is worth remembering that Lyon could only manage 3rd last year behind Bordeaux and Marseilles. It is hard to imagine Lyon being priced up at 7/5 for this game. It is worth remembering that home advantage is more significant in European games as even last season Marseilles took 4 points from 9. Milan are a weakened team now that Kaka has departed and with the French season already 5 games in and Milan still in pre season Im happy enough to take a chance on them getting off to the perfect start.
Sell bookings 1 pt per yellow Man Utd v Besiktas at 40 Sporting Index. Referee Rizzoli is very inexperienced at this level with only 2 CL games and 2 UEFA cup games to date. As with most inexperienced referees he is slightly reluctant to dish out cards. Even allowing for what is likely to be an electric atmosphere in Turkey this line still looks on the high side.
Marseilles 0.5 pt at 7/5 (v Milan) Boylesports. People like to think of the French league as a 1 team league but it is worth remembering that Lyon could only manage 3rd last year behind Bordeaux and Marseilles. It is hard to imagine Lyon being priced up at 7/5 for this game. It is worth remembering that home advantage is more significant in European games as even last season Marseilles took 4 points from 9. Milan are a weakened team now that Kaka has departed and with the French season already 5 games in and Milan still in pre season Im happy enough to take a chance on them getting off to the perfect start.
Sell bookings 1 pt per yellow Man Utd v Besiktas at 40 Sporting Index. Referee Rizzoli is very inexperienced at this level with only 2 CL games and 2 UEFA cup games to date. As with most inexperienced referees he is slightly reluctant to dish out cards. Even allowing for what is likely to be an electric atmosphere in Turkey this line still looks on the high side.
Ref justice
The more different sports I watch as I travel around the world the more clear it becomes that the problems both with the refereeing and the rules in soccer is the exception rather than the rule. Whereas other sports have set out to protect their referees and make their jobs easier the Tweedledum and Tweedledee approach of UEFA and FIFA seems determined to make their job as hard as possible and seem all too happy to allow their referees be cast as a pantomime villain for one half or the other of the viewing public. To do his job a referee needs respect. A referee needs to be able to make bold decisions that are going to affect the game one way or another. And he needs to know that when he does make these decisions he can do so without the fear of firstly being intimidated by the players but also to know that he is not going to be slandered by the managers and press afterwards as they attempt to whip up a frenzy of rage in the aftermath of the game.
In the last few years there have been 2 high profile instances of good referees who received death threats. In 2005 Anders Frisk, who was considered by Pierluigi Colina to be the only other referee qualified to ref the 2002 World Cup final, was forced to retire from refereeing due to death threats from Chelsea fans. Now you could argue that there is not a lot that the authorities could do about this except that these death threats were a direct result of the lies about Frisk which Jose Mourinho spread after the first leg of the Chelsea Barcelona champions league tie where he claimed to have seen Frisk invite the Barcelona manager into his dressing room at half time. Mourinho later admitted that he had not in fact witnessed this. Now in most sports you would expect that the governing body would take a stern line against this sort of behavior. After all bringing the game into disrepute and forcing one of the worlds top referees to resign due his slander are pretty serious charges. The UEFA referee's chief, Volker Roth, labelled Mourinho an "enemy of football" in the aftermath of this incident. However UEFA´s official response was a paltry fine and a 2 match touchline ban. To put that in perspective that is a similar punishment to the one given to Steve Staunton for kicking a water bottle (at nobody) in frustration during an Ireland Germany European championship qualifier. Not exactly what you would call cracking down hard on bringing the game into disrepute. When you compare this to the 2 year bans handed out to all those involved in the Harlequins ´bloodgate´ scandal recently it kind of puts things in perspective.
Now people will argue that it is only natural for players to get annoyed and aggressive when the referee makes bad decisions, but part of the reason for the referee is making bad decisions in the first place is the intimidation he experiences from the players. It is impossible to imagine that having 8 or 9 players crowding around you abusing you every time you make a call against them cannot effect all but the best referees. It is hard to believe that a rule similar to that in rugby where only the captain can approach the referee would not reduce the pressure on referees and improve their performances, however given that the footballing authorities would be loathe to start handing out suspensions to players like Wayne Rooney for showing ´passion´ for the game maybe they need to look at the introduction of a video ref if they want to clean up footballs image. Although in fairness when dealing with a sport where the constant questioning of the referees parentage and nocturnal activities is considered passion for the game maybe the problem runs a lot deeper than just the players on the pitch.
Almost every big money sport you can think of now has introduced a TV match official which players can appeal to in the event that they think the referee has made a mistake. From NFL to cricket this technology has been introduced with no major problems. In most cases each team has a set number of challenges it can make and for each challenge they make where the referee on the field is not overruled they lose one challenge. This leaves the referee on the field free to make marginal calls secure in the knowledge that if the players know that they have been wronged they can easily appeal the decision and have it overturned. This allows the referee to make what would be controversial decisions knowing that those decision can then be verified by the TV official. The main argument put forward against this technology is that it would cause excessive delays in the game, however when you consider the amount of time that normally elapses in a premiership game between a penalty being given and the penalty being taken due to players surrounding the referee to protest it is hard to imagine that an official in the stands watching 2 or 3 replays of the incident would take any longer.
Compare this to the benefits to the game from introducing this technology:
Firstly you immediately cut out the hounding of the referee by players. If the players are that convinced they have been wronged they will now need to run to their manager instead to get him to issue a challenge to the decision.
Secondly you end up with a fairer game where a teams entire season doesn't end up being decided by the human error of a referee. The cliche that all these decisions even themselves out over the course of a season is patent nonsense. Being denied a legitimate penalty in tight champions league tie cannot be offset by getting an undeserved penalty when you are already 2 0 up and cruising against some cannon fodder team that is fighting relegation.
Thirdly it cuts down on diving as now the referee should be more willing to give cards for diving as the player always has recourse to the video ref. It also cuts down on diving by forcing the manager of the team to decide which decisions to challenge and which not to challenge. If a player is constantly throwing themselves to the ground but even their own manager refused to call for a free it would soon make a mockery of certain managers claims that their players do not dive.
Fourthly it will allow the media to actually concentrate on the football rather than spending much of their post match analysis criticising the referees performance.
Finally it will actually require managers to justify their performance and not allow them to hide behind the permanent persecution complex some of them seem to have as regards decisions made against their teams. I have no doubt that in the past poor refereeing decisions has made the difference for some managers between keeping their jobs or not, at least this way it separates ability from bad luck.
Unfortunately the footballing authorities seem content to stick their heads in the sand and continue to allow footballers act however they wish while entire seasons are decided by arbitrary decision and football continues to grab the headlines for the wrong reasons.
Thursday, 3 September 2009
Gamble Gamble
OK this blog is going to be a combination of articles on sport in general and a (hopefully) weekly feature of betting tips (complete with running profit/loss). ¨This time next year we´ll be millionaires!´
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)