OK a solid weekend of football and the mighty David Villa have led a recovery to +16.92pts. Now some of you may have doubted my advice last week as i didn't go into a huge amount of detail so I dug out my spreadsheet which has all the data from 2004 (when the current CL format was adopted) and I can tell you that in the 40 second round 1st leg games before this season 33%of them ended in draws indicating the average draw price should be 2/1 and obviously for cerrtain games it should be even shorter. If you feel that 40 is too small a number to make a definitive judgement on you can add in the first leg result in all CL 2 leg ties and you still get a draw percentage of 33% (the split of wins between home and away changes because unlike in the second roujnd the stronger team is not always away from home). So with those numbers behind us lets plough on and hope for some nice mean reversion this week.
2.5pts Draw Olypiakos v Bordeaux @ 23/10 (Ladbrokes)
1.5pts Draw Barcelona v Stuttgart @4.1 (Betfair)
0.5pts 1-0 Barca 9.2 (Betfair)
Sell bookings for 1.5pts a card @ 40 (extrabet)
0.2pt Lucky 15 draws in all 4 games (23/10, 5/2, 23/10, 21/10) - Ladbrokes
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