Size fits the bill

The Arkle is a race that has confused me for a while and I'm still not 100% sure I have it completely nailed. I had at one stage decided that it was impossible for any of the horses to win it but obviously something has to so I'll try and take a stab at who will benefit from the other horses failings.

OK lets start with the favourite Capt CB - basically he doesn't jump well enough to win an Arkle, if this was a bumper then maybe I'd be tempted to back him at those prices but the 8 large fences standing between him and victory are enough to put me off. He definitely a classy horse but I just think when he's asked to jump his fences at speed he is too error prone.

Somersby is a horse I really like - I just wish he would skip Cheltenham and go straight to Aintree. I think he prob is a bit better on a flatter track. He might get a little lost coming down the hill only to battle back into a place the way he did in the Supreme last year.

Riverside Theatre prob has the best form of any of these horses, however for some reason I have it in my head that this is a small horse (can somebody confirm or deny this for me please?) In that case the large field would prob not suit the horse and cause it to spend too much energy fighting for position. If it weren't for concerns over size this would be my tip.

If the ground was soft it would bring Sports Line into the equation but I'm sure as always it will turn up Good to Soft for the festival and just be too firm for him to be seen at his best, also if it was to get really soft due to weather back home it could open the door for an unlikely appearance by An Cathaoir Mor and he would take some beating in the mud.

So despite my concerns about backing a horse that has previously had breathing problems at Cheltenham I am going to have to tip up Sizing Europe. His last run over hurdles had him within a couple of lengths of Solwhit and he has done all that was asked of him since going chasing. OK maybe he wouldn't have beaten Capt CB if he had stood up over Christmas but I don't want to bet on CB standing up this time either.

1pt Sizing Europe 13/2 (Paddy Power, Will Hill)