Champion Hurdle

OK a solid week has pushed our profits back up to +28.46pts. Now time to turn our thoughts to the Champion Hurdle which is a more tricky poser than I first thought. I have already advised 2pts Solwhit @ 6/1 and 1pt @ 7/1 and although in terms of the current market they look like nice bets I'm not too confident of actually collecting on them.

It's hard to knock a horse who has won 5 G1 in his last 6 starts but apart from a head defeat of Punjabi in Punchestown last May you would have to wonder just how strong the races he has won are. The horses filling second being Donna's Palm, Sublimity and Muirhead. Of these only Sublimity could be considered CH material and I think he is a few pounds off that level now. He hasn't actually ever run a race worthy of winning a CH. Now maybe when the questions are asked he will have the answers but it is worth remembering that when he did face the big boys in Newcastle he was brushed aside quite comfortably by Go Native.

Go Native is the horse who should be favourite for this race. An above average Supreme winner last year he has nailed all his big targets this year after losing on his debut. Carberry can be relied on not to get him to the front too soon to avoid the idling problems he encounter here last year and at Kempton over Christmas. The stats are against him but he really does look a classy horse.

Zaynar has been running over 2 1/2m for most of the season and hasn't done anything special to deserve his elevated place in the market - ignore.

Medermit is well held by Khyber Kim on his last 2 runs at Cheltenham and hasn't improved to the same extent as Go Native has from when he got within 1/2L last year.

Khyber Kim beat Celestial Halo at Cheltenham in December which has to be respected however on the better ground that we would expect at the festival I think he will get done for pace and find a few better than him. V. interesting if it was to turn up soft though.

Punjabi is the reigning champion and showed he was in good health with an easy win at the weekend. He always seems to come good in the spring on better ground and also has a 3rd to his name when beaten by Katchit in this race 2 years ago. At 10/1 I would much rather back this horse e/w than some of the horses ahead of him in the betting.

Celestial Halo was just touched off in this race last year but the fact that Nicholls already has him schooling over fences say s it all about where he believes this horses future lies.

If I had to call the tricast I would go:
1. Go Native
2. Punjabi
3. Solwhit

So as regards betting wise I actaully think the best bet available is
2pts Go Native to be favourite @ 6/4 (888sport)- is already slight favourite on betfair and I think once people start to properly examine the form he will overtake Solwhit with the bookies a sfavourite too.

Related to the above as I expect GN to shorten and Solwhit to lenghten (also as we already have a significant interest in Solwhit from our previous bets).
1.5pts Go Native @ 9/2 (Will Hill, VC)
1.5 pts Lay Solwhit @ 5.7 (betfair) - only if you already have him backed
0.5pts e/w Punjabi @ 10/1 (Lads, WH, 888)