Wednesday, 22 September 2010

New Season new start

OK we finished last year with a slightly disappointing profit of 29.45pts. We are now back starting from scratch again and this year not only will there be a running total but it will be split between racing football and other sports to see if there are any holes that need plugging in our betting strategy. I am finally back in Ireland semi-permanently and so there will be at least one blog each weekend with a midweek blog for football or any top class mid week racing.

I'll start off with a few match bets for Saturdays football.

1.5pts Man City 13/5 (bet365, VCbet) : Classic case of a team being over-estimated due to hype when putting away nonsense teams. Chelsea have looked impressive so far this season but they could barely have had an easier start playing 5 of the 6 worst rated teams in the division. The over-reaction to their perfect start has been massive. If this game happened mid season you would expect the bookies to make it perhaps 7/4 each side however here they have Chelsea as 6/5 fav away from home against a genuine top 4 team.

1pt Birmingham 5/6 (general): This is a fairly marginal call according to the spread firms season points expectations. But it's hard to pass up 5/6 on a team that hasn't been beaten at home for a year against possibly the worst team in the league.

2pts Sunderland +1.25 Asian Handicap @1.87 (VCbet): Torres has gotten a lot of flak recently for being off form but it hasn't helped him that his team-mates can't seem to pass the ball past midfield. Also the switch from zonal marking back to man marking has left them looking vunerable to any ball into the box. Sunderland have had a reasonable solid start to the season and can play their part in some of tomorrows worst TV viewing. I expect this to be a reasonably tight game and if Liverpool do turn it around I think they will be happy to win by the minimum. With this bet we win half if that happens and scoop the lot in the event of a draw or better for Sunderland.

1pt Borussia Dortmund 11/10 (Ladbrokes): Dortmund will be pushing Bayern all the way for the title this year while St. Pauli will be occupying themselves trying to avoid relegation. Given that odds against on Dortmund looks a little too generous

1.5pts Monaco draw no bet 11/8 (general): The match odds on this game don't seem to take into account the gulf in class between these 2 teams however given that Monaco have drawn 5 of their 6 games so far and neither teams are prolific goalscorers it makes sense to keep the draw onside and bet without it.

I'll put up some bets for Ascot now but I will hopefully have a few more racing bets in the morning once the other meetings are priced up.

0.5pts e/w Klammer 16/1 (general) - Ascot 2.30: This is a pretty weak group 2 and it is hard to make a case for a lot of the horses here. The favourite is a classy horse but a lot of hype surrounding him as a result of walking away with a nonsense race a few weeks back where his only real challenger was withdrawn at the start. Klammer won a listed race in France the last time out and had 2 reasonable runs in G2's before that. I think he can give the favourite the most to do and if the hotpot does turn out to be all hype he can land us a nice pot.

2pts White Moonstone 2.0 (betfair) - Ascot 3.05: Yes she would prefer a straight course and firmer ground but this immensly classy filly is good enough to win without that. Expect her to be a very warm favourite for the 1000 guineas after this race tomorrow.

2pts Makfi 10/11 (Stan James) - Ascot 4.15: Phenomenal winner of the guineas from Canford Cliffs in 3rd who had Rip Van Winkle well held the last time they met. Has a legitimate excuse for his one racecourse defeat when scoping dirty in the St. James Palace Stakes and put in a solid performance to beat Goldikova and Paco Boy the last day. One thing to note it is quite possible this horse will drift during the day (it is French after all and so not to be trusted by the English betting public). It is quite likely there will be a bit of money for Frankie on Poets Voice and I there will be those who still rate RVW on what he did last year rather than this years performances. That being the case if you back the horse early be sure to do it with a bookie with best odds guarantee.

OK thats all until the morning, happy punting!

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