Tomorrow looks a pretty tough card to sort out and I don't see anything worth more than a small speculative bet.
NH Chase:
I was on the verge of putting up Pearlysteps however despite running a good 3rd here last time out the comments wouldn't fill you with confidence:
'Chased leaders, hit 7th and 10th, blundered 11th, hit 3 out, rallied from next, chasing leaders when hit last, one pace'
There are only so many jumping mistakes you can hope to get away with in a 4 mile slog.
Chamirey is one whose jumping may improve with the slower pace but enough doubts to steer clear. Aberdale is a little inexperienced but jumps well and looks like he could progress but finding it hard to avoid CHICHAGO GREY. The classiest horse in the field and wasn't far beaten in a G1 last time by the under-rated Bostons Angel. If he stays he should win this. Also has the bonus of not being ridden by a clown (this is an amatuer riders race). seems to have been backed overnight unfortunately but in the absence of anything else he is worth a small bet.
Coral Cup;
A lot of cash has come for Ballyhaunis which is a pity as he is a nice horse but the value is probably gone. Hard to get away from FOR NON STOP though. Relatively lightly raced he found only Grand Crus better than him at Cheltenham in December and had a good run in the Challow Hurdle when 2 1/4Ls behind yesterdays winner Al Ferof. TIGER O'TOOLE is a horse who can run well at a bigger price and he did nothing wrong when beating Walkon the last day.
Fred Winter:
PLAN A ticks all the boxes here. Had Titan de Sarti 8Ls back here in November when best of the rest behind Sam WInner and Grandouet. Never broke a sweat getting off the mark the last day and has been laid out for this. Kayef has improved a lot since his debut here in December and might just do enough to get involved in the finish.
Bumper:
You are on your own for this. My advice would be to get an early start on Paddy's Day and head to the pub for this rather than the bookies.
0.5pts Chicago Grey 5/1 (general)
1pte/w For Non Stop 7/1 (bet365)
0.25 pts e/w Tiger O'Toole 25/1 (bet365, VC, WH)
1pt e/w Plan A 6/1 (bet365 - 5 places)
0.5pts e/w Kayef 22/1 (bet365 - 5 places)
Tuesday, 15 March 2011
Monday, 14 March 2011
Twas the night before Cheltenham
OK just a quick note on tomorrow. Firstly Magen's Star has diverted to the Supreme where she is not without a chance but I still struggle to see past Cue Card in that. Given she is out of the race L'accordioniste is prob the most reasonable e/w alternative for people not looking to take the odds-on on Quevega.
IN the first handicap of the day it's not a very original choice but I love the look of Sunnyhillboy. Decent racing weight, good course form including a 2nd at the festival last year and not an overly tough season to date. The trip is the only unknown but he looks like he should stay the full 3m so not overly concerned on that front. Great Endevour and Blazing Bailey look to have too much weight. Bensalem was let down by his jumping last year and hasn't jumped a fence in public since in an attempt to protect his handicap mark, I'm not too interested at that price given those doubts. Of the rest King Fontaine could run well at a big price.
In the big one the absence of Binocular does present Menorah the opportunity to be the first Supreme winner since Bula to win this the next year but I still think Hurricane Fly will put all the novices in their place.
In the cross country the age and weight might finally tell with the top 2 in the market and it could pay to side with 2 horses with decent course form and who have age and weight on their side - Sizing Australia and Another Jewel.
No massive thoughts on the final handicap yet - a tentative selection goes to Tullamore Dew who can go one better than his 2nd in the Coral CUp last year.
If I dig out anything during the day it will be on the tweets.
0.5pts e/w Tullamore Dew 9/1 (bet365,SJ, WH)
1pt e/w Sizing Australia 8/1 (bet365)
1.5pts e/w Another Jewel 16/1 (WH)
1.5pts e/w Sunnyhillboy 6/1 (bet365, PP - 5 places)
IN the first handicap of the day it's not a very original choice but I love the look of Sunnyhillboy. Decent racing weight, good course form including a 2nd at the festival last year and not an overly tough season to date. The trip is the only unknown but he looks like he should stay the full 3m so not overly concerned on that front. Great Endevour and Blazing Bailey look to have too much weight. Bensalem was let down by his jumping last year and hasn't jumped a fence in public since in an attempt to protect his handicap mark, I'm not too interested at that price given those doubts. Of the rest King Fontaine could run well at a big price.
In the big one the absence of Binocular does present Menorah the opportunity to be the first Supreme winner since Bula to win this the next year but I still think Hurricane Fly will put all the novices in their place.
In the cross country the age and weight might finally tell with the top 2 in the market and it could pay to side with 2 horses with decent course form and who have age and weight on their side - Sizing Australia and Another Jewel.
No massive thoughts on the final handicap yet - a tentative selection goes to Tullamore Dew who can go one better than his 2nd in the Coral CUp last year.
If I dig out anything during the day it will be on the tweets.
0.5pts e/w Tullamore Dew 9/1 (bet365,SJ, WH)
1pt e/w Sizing Australia 8/1 (bet365)
1.5pts e/w Another Jewel 16/1 (WH)
1.5pts e/w Sunnyhillboy 6/1 (bet365, PP - 5 places)
Sunday, 13 March 2011
See the Light and trust in the Noble Prince to deliver
Half way there now! On to Thursday.
Jewson Chase:
Wishfull Thinking would be an interesting runner if he lined up here but given he is twice the price on Betfair as with the bookies I'm guessing he will now actually line up in the RSA...which I hadn't considered earlier - might actually be the solution to that problem. Will have to think a bit more on that one!
Captain Chris has spent most of the season getting beat by the Arkle favourites. Did well to win comfortably the last day given he had a tough race only 2 weeks previously vs Medermit. Hard to tell if his 3rd race in a little over a month might be too big an ask.
Mr Gardner has 7L's to find with Capt. Chris and although he should improve he is too inexperienced for me with only 2 chase starts to date.
Robinson Collonges has a lot of talent but there are big question marks over his jumping. Won 2 of his 4 starts easily and would have been pretty close to beating Wishfull Thinking when falling at Wincanton. Last day here he threw away any chance with a mistake at the 3rd last (one of the downhill fences which are harder to jump). I think if he can be put under pressure he will crack again - might be one of the few horses where the PP faller insurance bet could be good value - although he didn't fall the last day just stumbled.
Loosen my Load was well beaten by Ghizao here in November when he just lost out to Capt. Chris for second in the final yards. Was over 5Ls back from Noble Prince the next day out in Leopardstown.
Which brings me on nicely to my selection, the horse I wanted to back for the Arkle, but he came here instead - NOBLE PRINCE. ON a pure line of form through Loosen My Load he is 5L's better than the likely favourite. Both him and the favourite will improve for the step up in trip and I am confident that our selection will enjoy both the better ground and the longer trip. If Realt Dubh does deliver for us on the first day though, watch this price tumble.
Ryanair Chase:
This is one of those situations where when I scanned the entries the answer I thought I would get was completely different to the answer I did get!
I fully expected to be tipping up Kalahari King for this. My initial reaction to his run behind Master Minded was that to get within 1 3/4Ls of Mad Max having been hampered by a falling horse was good going, however I think this would be unfair to Mad Max as to give him his due he actually made an attempt to win this race and as a result suffered at the end and nearly got caught by an inferior horse (Kalahari King). He has an impressive festival record - 2nd in an Arkle and 3rd in a Champion Chase but I just can't get away from the feeling the more I look at him that he is on the downgrade and has been for a full year. He raced as a 2yo on the flat and maybe this French bred just has too many miles on the clock at this stage.
Poquelin is a deserved favourite with a fantastic course record including a Gold Cup win here in December. Has been given a break since and whoever beats him is going to win. I'll hold off backing him in the hopes that he drifts on the day and then may well get involved in some way.
I never really expect much from Alberta's Run over the winter, he is a real spring horse. But even for him this winter has been bad. Given the doubts his trainer has been voicing in recent weeks I'll pass over him this time (if he proves us wrong we can alway recoup our losses at Aintree!)
Gauvianwon at the track at the start of the season when beating the horse that hates winning Forpadydplasterer. SInce then though he has been out classed in a few G1's and is prob a bit out of his depth here again.
If there is to be a shock here it could be Rubi Light - a 6yo with plenty of scope for improvement having comfortably won the Red Mills Chase the last day out. Worth a small ew saver but thinking back I think POQUELIN is the one everyone has to beat and should be backed to win on the day.
World Hurdle:
This looks like a match between the big 2. I think Big Buck's will prob just shade it but nobody really knows yet just how good Grand Crus is so maybe best not to get too heavily involved here.
Much more interesting from a betting point of view is the race for 3rd. Mourad hasn't really beaten much in Ireland this winter although she did get within 5 1/2Ls of Hurricane Fly first time out over 2 1/2M. The only other realistic contender is Fiveforthree who won a Neptune here a few years back and has a G1 3m hurdle to his name. He looked good the last day but that was his first run for a year and a half. Willie claims Mourad is the better option but it is hard to be sure. If the real Fiveforthree turns up everyone could be in for a real race. I think WH are well out of line in their betting w/o 2 market though and both can be backed profitably here.
1.5pts e/w Noble Prince 6/1 (bet365 Boyles, WH)
2pts Poquelin (best morning price)
0.25pts e/w Rubi Light 25/1 (VC, SJ, WH, 888)
1.25pts e/w Fiveforthree (w/o big 2) 4/1 (WH)
.75pts e/w Mourad (w/o big 2) 3/1 (WH)
1pt e/w Fiveforthree 12/1 (PP, Boyles, SJ)
Jewson Chase:
Wishfull Thinking would be an interesting runner if he lined up here but given he is twice the price on Betfair as with the bookies I'm guessing he will now actually line up in the RSA...which I hadn't considered earlier - might actually be the solution to that problem. Will have to think a bit more on that one!
Captain Chris has spent most of the season getting beat by the Arkle favourites. Did well to win comfortably the last day given he had a tough race only 2 weeks previously vs Medermit. Hard to tell if his 3rd race in a little over a month might be too big an ask.
Mr Gardner has 7L's to find with Capt. Chris and although he should improve he is too inexperienced for me with only 2 chase starts to date.
Robinson Collonges has a lot of talent but there are big question marks over his jumping. Won 2 of his 4 starts easily and would have been pretty close to beating Wishfull Thinking when falling at Wincanton. Last day here he threw away any chance with a mistake at the 3rd last (one of the downhill fences which are harder to jump). I think if he can be put under pressure he will crack again - might be one of the few horses where the PP faller insurance bet could be good value - although he didn't fall the last day just stumbled.
Loosen my Load was well beaten by Ghizao here in November when he just lost out to Capt. Chris for second in the final yards. Was over 5Ls back from Noble Prince the next day out in Leopardstown.
Which brings me on nicely to my selection, the horse I wanted to back for the Arkle, but he came here instead - NOBLE PRINCE. ON a pure line of form through Loosen My Load he is 5L's better than the likely favourite. Both him and the favourite will improve for the step up in trip and I am confident that our selection will enjoy both the better ground and the longer trip. If Realt Dubh does deliver for us on the first day though, watch this price tumble.
Ryanair Chase:
This is one of those situations where when I scanned the entries the answer I thought I would get was completely different to the answer I did get!
I fully expected to be tipping up Kalahari King for this. My initial reaction to his run behind Master Minded was that to get within 1 3/4Ls of Mad Max having been hampered by a falling horse was good going, however I think this would be unfair to Mad Max as to give him his due he actually made an attempt to win this race and as a result suffered at the end and nearly got caught by an inferior horse (Kalahari King). He has an impressive festival record - 2nd in an Arkle and 3rd in a Champion Chase but I just can't get away from the feeling the more I look at him that he is on the downgrade and has been for a full year. He raced as a 2yo on the flat and maybe this French bred just has too many miles on the clock at this stage.
Poquelin is a deserved favourite with a fantastic course record including a Gold Cup win here in December. Has been given a break since and whoever beats him is going to win. I'll hold off backing him in the hopes that he drifts on the day and then may well get involved in some way.
I never really expect much from Alberta's Run over the winter, he is a real spring horse. But even for him this winter has been bad. Given the doubts his trainer has been voicing in recent weeks I'll pass over him this time (if he proves us wrong we can alway recoup our losses at Aintree!)
Gauvianwon at the track at the start of the season when beating the horse that hates winning Forpadydplasterer. SInce then though he has been out classed in a few G1's and is prob a bit out of his depth here again.
If there is to be a shock here it could be Rubi Light - a 6yo with plenty of scope for improvement having comfortably won the Red Mills Chase the last day out. Worth a small ew saver but thinking back I think POQUELIN is the one everyone has to beat and should be backed to win on the day.
World Hurdle:
This looks like a match between the big 2. I think Big Buck's will prob just shade it but nobody really knows yet just how good Grand Crus is so maybe best not to get too heavily involved here.
Much more interesting from a betting point of view is the race for 3rd. Mourad hasn't really beaten much in Ireland this winter although she did get within 5 1/2Ls of Hurricane Fly first time out over 2 1/2M. The only other realistic contender is Fiveforthree who won a Neptune here a few years back and has a G1 3m hurdle to his name. He looked good the last day but that was his first run for a year and a half. Willie claims Mourad is the better option but it is hard to be sure. If the real Fiveforthree turns up everyone could be in for a real race. I think WH are well out of line in their betting w/o 2 market though and both can be backed profitably here.
1.5pts e/w Noble Prince 6/1 (bet365 Boyles, WH)
2pts Poquelin (best morning price)
0.25pts e/w Rubi Light 25/1 (VC, SJ, WH, 888)
1.25pts e/w Fiveforthree (w/o big 2) 4/1 (WH)
.75pts e/w Mourad (w/o big 2) 3/1 (WH)
1pt e/w Fiveforthree 12/1 (PP, Boyles, SJ)
Wednesdays A to Zeb
Well hope everyone got on for Hurricane before the news of Binoculars bloodtest broke - that said if you haven't the 4/1 on bet365 for him looks tasty and I've had another nobble at 4s e/w.
On to day 2 now. I'll try to get through as much as possible today because as the races start to cut up badly some of the best prices are disappearing fast.
Neptune Novices:
So Young is the 7/2 fav and the money keeps on coming for him with talk of him even being switched to the supreme. The stable obviously thinks a lot of him and given Willie has trained 4 of the last 8 winners he can't be dismissed lightly. However he has yet to be tried at the highest level and although he could be anything I couldn't back him at that price without seeing him involved in a proper race first.
Rock on Ruby and Minella Class are evenly matched based on a line through Megastar. Both of them should be held by Bob's Worth who has the course and distance form.
Bob's Worth is the best of the English challengers with course form and won a decent G2 here the last day - just think that the Irish have too strong a hand this time around but wouldn't be a massive surprise to see him involved in the finish.
Oscars Wells has the best form of any horse coming into this race. 3 wins from 3 including 2 G1's the last time very impressively beating Zaidpour. That said I think there is better value one of the other Irish raiders who seems to be a forgotten horse in the race.
FIRST LIEUTENANT won a G1 at Leopardstown over Christmas on ground that won't have suited him. He should be a better horse on the better ground at Cheltenham. He has been put away since Christmas with an eye on this race and should have some scope for improvement from the already impressive impression he made. Worth remembering the 3rd horse that day was Hidden Cyclone who has since thrived on the soft winter ground picking up several decent prizes. I managed to get a little of the 14s on offer last week however the 10s still available is a more than fair price.
RSA Chase:
I can't really get a handle on this race.
Time for Rupert looks the real deal on what he's done so far but has had a disrupted preparation and hasn't been seen since a comfortable win at the track back in early December. You would need to go a long way back to find a winner without a prep run from the turn of the year.
Hard to know what to make of 1833 - beaten a total of 7 horse in his 2 starts to date. Very highly thought of by his trainer who claims to have already backed him at 33's for next seasons Hennessey. Denman was the only winner in the last 10 to win this while still unbeaten.
Jessies Dream's form is hard to assess. His 5L victory over Realt Dubh in the Drinmore was probably due to Realt Dubh being below form that day. Maybe a more realistic reading of that form says he prob would have just been beaten by Mikhail D'Haguenet who has disappointed since. Then went on to be beaten by Magnanimity in a muddling 3 horse race over Christmas. Granted he will improve with the ground but may have a slight preference for right handed tracks and can't make a compelling case here.
Wymott has some reasonable form but will need to improve and probably hasn't been as impressive as his first start of the season since.
Wayward Prince's jumping would be a concern for me. Has the advantage of having to battle for his wins to date but not convinced he will show the necessary improvement both in jumping and speed to win this.
Mikhail D'Haguenet should be racing in the world hurdle - has fallen once and beaten well on his other 2 chasing starts. Makes no appeal here.
Boston Angel can be forgiven his flop in the Drinmore and has rock solid form that aside. A bit concerned though at how he flopped on his trip over here last year - maybe it was a once off in which case he has a good shout here but puts a doubt in my mind.
ON the whole not really a race I want to have too much in play but if you need a bet, maybe Aiteen Thirtythree at 8s or Bostons Angel at 16s might be the best value.
CHAMPION CHASE:
Finally an easy one! BIG ZEB 3/1 get on!
It may seem strange that I tip up a 10yo and then discount an 8yo for being too old but Master Minded peaked as a 5yo and has never reached those heights since. Not all of this can be attributed to him being French with injuries also taking their toll. He is running at a decent level this year but in his prime he nearly got turned over by Big Zeb at Punchestown, this year he has been consistently running 8lbs below that mark. Big Zeb on the other hand has improved his jumping since then and so long as he is lightly raced hasn't failed to produce his best. The race the last day came too quick for him but after a nice 6 week break we should see the best of him here.
Of the remainder Somersby and Mad Max will as usual come under pressure coming down the hill before staying on up the hill but by that stage they will have left themselves too much to do. Golden Silver didn't run his race here last year and is just below these guys anyway. Sizing Europe has been undone by spending most of the season training for the Gold CUp and is hard to fancy here. If there is a danger it is probably Woolcombe Folly who was burning up the track before encountering a hiccup in training and missing his prep race. If he is 100% he can give the big 2 something to think about.
1.5pts e/w First Lieutenant 10/1 (general)
2.5pts win Big Zeb 3/1 (bet365, 888sport)
On to day 2 now. I'll try to get through as much as possible today because as the races start to cut up badly some of the best prices are disappearing fast.
Neptune Novices:
So Young is the 7/2 fav and the money keeps on coming for him with talk of him even being switched to the supreme. The stable obviously thinks a lot of him and given Willie has trained 4 of the last 8 winners he can't be dismissed lightly. However he has yet to be tried at the highest level and although he could be anything I couldn't back him at that price without seeing him involved in a proper race first.
Rock on Ruby and Minella Class are evenly matched based on a line through Megastar. Both of them should be held by Bob's Worth who has the course and distance form.
Bob's Worth is the best of the English challengers with course form and won a decent G2 here the last day - just think that the Irish have too strong a hand this time around but wouldn't be a massive surprise to see him involved in the finish.
Oscars Wells has the best form of any horse coming into this race. 3 wins from 3 including 2 G1's the last time very impressively beating Zaidpour. That said I think there is better value one of the other Irish raiders who seems to be a forgotten horse in the race.
FIRST LIEUTENANT won a G1 at Leopardstown over Christmas on ground that won't have suited him. He should be a better horse on the better ground at Cheltenham. He has been put away since Christmas with an eye on this race and should have some scope for improvement from the already impressive impression he made. Worth remembering the 3rd horse that day was Hidden Cyclone who has since thrived on the soft winter ground picking up several decent prizes. I managed to get a little of the 14s on offer last week however the 10s still available is a more than fair price.
RSA Chase:
I can't really get a handle on this race.
Time for Rupert looks the real deal on what he's done so far but has had a disrupted preparation and hasn't been seen since a comfortable win at the track back in early December. You would need to go a long way back to find a winner without a prep run from the turn of the year.
Hard to know what to make of 1833 - beaten a total of 7 horse in his 2 starts to date. Very highly thought of by his trainer who claims to have already backed him at 33's for next seasons Hennessey. Denman was the only winner in the last 10 to win this while still unbeaten.
Jessies Dream's form is hard to assess. His 5L victory over Realt Dubh in the Drinmore was probably due to Realt Dubh being below form that day. Maybe a more realistic reading of that form says he prob would have just been beaten by Mikhail D'Haguenet who has disappointed since. Then went on to be beaten by Magnanimity in a muddling 3 horse race over Christmas. Granted he will improve with the ground but may have a slight preference for right handed tracks and can't make a compelling case here.
Wymott has some reasonable form but will need to improve and probably hasn't been as impressive as his first start of the season since.
Wayward Prince's jumping would be a concern for me. Has the advantage of having to battle for his wins to date but not convinced he will show the necessary improvement both in jumping and speed to win this.
Mikhail D'Haguenet should be racing in the world hurdle - has fallen once and beaten well on his other 2 chasing starts. Makes no appeal here.
Boston Angel can be forgiven his flop in the Drinmore and has rock solid form that aside. A bit concerned though at how he flopped on his trip over here last year - maybe it was a once off in which case he has a good shout here but puts a doubt in my mind.
ON the whole not really a race I want to have too much in play but if you need a bet, maybe Aiteen Thirtythree at 8s or Bostons Angel at 16s might be the best value.
CHAMPION CHASE:
Finally an easy one! BIG ZEB 3/1 get on!
It may seem strange that I tip up a 10yo and then discount an 8yo for being too old but Master Minded peaked as a 5yo and has never reached those heights since. Not all of this can be attributed to him being French with injuries also taking their toll. He is running at a decent level this year but in his prime he nearly got turned over by Big Zeb at Punchestown, this year he has been consistently running 8lbs below that mark. Big Zeb on the other hand has improved his jumping since then and so long as he is lightly raced hasn't failed to produce his best. The race the last day came too quick for him but after a nice 6 week break we should see the best of him here.
Of the remainder Somersby and Mad Max will as usual come under pressure coming down the hill before staying on up the hill but by that stage they will have left themselves too much to do. Golden Silver didn't run his race here last year and is just below these guys anyway. Sizing Europe has been undone by spending most of the season training for the Gold CUp and is hard to fancy here. If there is a danger it is probably Woolcombe Folly who was burning up the track before encountering a hiccup in training and missing his prep race. If he is 100% he can give the big 2 something to think about.
1.5pts e/w First Lieutenant 10/1 (general)
2.5pts win Big Zeb 3/1 (bet365, 888sport)
Friday, 11 March 2011
Black Star can shine brightest
OK, I bit longer than anticipated but better late than never. Going to finish off Day 1 in this post.
Arkle:
Ok lets start with the favourite Medermit - the best of these over hurdles including a 1/4L defeat to Go Native in the Supreme a few years back. 5 runs at Cheltenham though and he has never won despite placing 4 times. I think he is going to make it a 5 out of 6 without taking home the trophy. He's had 2 hard races already this year and I just have a feeling that combined with him prefering slightly longer is enough to look elsewhere for the winner.
Finian's Rainbow probably has the strongest form on paper however a 12L beating of Hells Bay shouldn't be taken at face value - a 3 horse race where Hells Bay quite possibly was still feeling the effects of chasing home Time for Rupert 2 weeks earlier. He's never really been under pressure in any of his races he's made mistakes in all of them in particular last time out when asked to jump behind other horse instead of going to front on his own which is a worry. Another point to note is that 9 if the last 13 winners had a 5 week break before the Arkle - he falls a little short of this.
I rate Ghizao as Englands best chance of keeping this prize at home. He didn't last the 2m5f in the Neptune last year however his other 3 runs at Chelt have been 2 wins and a second including a comfortable win over Captain Chris over course and distance in a G2 in November. Hard to find flaws in his form given he needed the run first time out and has had a nice break in the run up. Kicking myself for not taking the 11/2 a week or 2 ago - 4/1 now and I might have a saver but there is better value elsewhere at this stage.
The horse I really wanted to back for this race was Noble Prince but after going down a short head to his fathers horse the last day his owner is sending him to the Jewson. In his absense the horse who beat him the last day REALT DUBH looks the bet of race. All of his winning has been done on soft or heavy but that has more to do with the weather than a preference on the horses part (imo). He won back to back G1's at the turn of the year and has had a nice long break since. It was also impressive the way he battled to regain the lead inside the final furlong the last day when it looked like he was headed by Noble Prince. Jumping isn't the prettiest but not major scares to date so fingers crossed - at 9/1 we'll take our chances!
Champion Hurdle:
Lets start with a few facts first to thin the field:
1 5yo has won this since 1985 - no reason to think Mille Chief will be no.2
No Supreme winner since Bula in 1971 has followed up in this the next year and only 1 horse in the last 27 years has won without a run since the New Year so much as he was the hero last year we'll wave goodbye to Menorah.
Menorah is a better horse than Oscar Whiskey who is prob more suited to the Aintree Hurdle so there goes one more.
Khyber Kim was in the form of his life last year coming into this and lost - just don't think he is quite classy enough to do more than hope for a place. So that leaves 4:
Peddlar's Cross - Won well here last year in the Neptune but not sure his form is as impressive as it looks. Did all that was asked in beating Bygones of Brid the last day but that won't set any hearts racing. Being priced up purely on 1 race (something in of itself I don't like) where he beat Starluck by 1 1/4Ls. Starluck has since gone chasing being deemed not good enough for a Champion hurdle by his trainer. The only reason for the talk was he beat Binocular who was obviously having an off day by 7Ls BUT if we look 6Ls further back we find Bygones of Brid again! Not Champion winning form - don't listen to the hype this horse is not the answer!
Dunguib - he was the talking horse coming here last year, some people say that he would have beaten Menorah with a different jockey, I'm not so sure. What I do know though is I expected at least as much from him this year as I did for Menorah that being the case I have to admit to having had a nibble at the 20s over Christmas (with stakes refunded if Binocular wins). I think he will come out top in the battle of last year's novices after a satisfactory comeback in the Red Mills but that will probably just be enough for a place.
Binocular - I wouldn't tell anyone not to back this horse. A good champion last year. Fantastic again in the Christmas hurdle and ignoring his off day first time out has done all thats been asked of him. He'll be on the premises somewhere and I might get involved e/w on the day as I expect money will come for the other 3 at the head of the betting but on current prices I (very marginally) am going to side against him.
HURRICANE FLY - is sired byMontjeu who I'm told has a 0-31 record of horses at the festival but statitics can prove anything and I never trust a statistic I don't understand - maybe it is because Montjeu horses don't like running on hills or maybe there is a more simple explanation - if you are shelling out 75k to have your broodmare spend a night of passion with the man himself you probably aren't doing it in the hope of someday winning the Fred Winter. Montjeu are bred to be top class middle distance flat horses and not to be able to jump so much as a twigg. GOt some news for you though - this guy has the best of both of it. Not only can he jump but he's got a pretty nifty turn of foot for a hurdler. Spent the winter laughing at 6 times G1 winner Solwhit finally causing to trainer Charles Byrne to divert him to the stayers hurdle. Worth mentioning the last time poor Charlie even thought he has Solwhit so good he backed him to beat this machine! This will be Hurricane first trip to Cheltenham which will have plenty of trends followers crossing them off their list but that was due to injuries and no lack of ability. He is a best price online of 5/1 but if you tip into a Ladbrokes shop they will give you 11/2 (in Ireland at least)
Mares Race:
Hard to see past Quevega here. She;s turned this race into a procession the last 2 years. However given her short price it leaves a bit of value in the e/w market. The English will undoubtely plunge into Sparky May who had a good win to beat Carole's Legacy by 2Ls last time out however that form is not enough to get close to Quevega if she is near her best. The only possible fly in the ointment is Magens Star who also holds an entry in the Supreme. She's had 2 stroll at the racecourse this season in nothing races winning by a combined 31Ls - 16s is big enough for us to get involved and hope!
2pts win Realt Dubh 9/1 (WH)
2pts win Hurricane Fly 11/2 (Lads)
1pt e/w Magens Star 16/1 (Boyles, PP, Betfred)
Arkle:
Ok lets start with the favourite Medermit - the best of these over hurdles including a 1/4L defeat to Go Native in the Supreme a few years back. 5 runs at Cheltenham though and he has never won despite placing 4 times. I think he is going to make it a 5 out of 6 without taking home the trophy. He's had 2 hard races already this year and I just have a feeling that combined with him prefering slightly longer is enough to look elsewhere for the winner.
Finian's Rainbow probably has the strongest form on paper however a 12L beating of Hells Bay shouldn't be taken at face value - a 3 horse race where Hells Bay quite possibly was still feeling the effects of chasing home Time for Rupert 2 weeks earlier. He's never really been under pressure in any of his races he's made mistakes in all of them in particular last time out when asked to jump behind other horse instead of going to front on his own which is a worry. Another point to note is that 9 if the last 13 winners had a 5 week break before the Arkle - he falls a little short of this.
I rate Ghizao as Englands best chance of keeping this prize at home. He didn't last the 2m5f in the Neptune last year however his other 3 runs at Chelt have been 2 wins and a second including a comfortable win over Captain Chris over course and distance in a G2 in November. Hard to find flaws in his form given he needed the run first time out and has had a nice break in the run up. Kicking myself for not taking the 11/2 a week or 2 ago - 4/1 now and I might have a saver but there is better value elsewhere at this stage.
The horse I really wanted to back for this race was Noble Prince but after going down a short head to his fathers horse the last day his owner is sending him to the Jewson. In his absense the horse who beat him the last day REALT DUBH looks the bet of race. All of his winning has been done on soft or heavy but that has more to do with the weather than a preference on the horses part (imo). He won back to back G1's at the turn of the year and has had a nice long break since. It was also impressive the way he battled to regain the lead inside the final furlong the last day when it looked like he was headed by Noble Prince. Jumping isn't the prettiest but not major scares to date so fingers crossed - at 9/1 we'll take our chances!
Champion Hurdle:
Lets start with a few facts first to thin the field:
1 5yo has won this since 1985 - no reason to think Mille Chief will be no.2
No Supreme winner since Bula in 1971 has followed up in this the next year and only 1 horse in the last 27 years has won without a run since the New Year so much as he was the hero last year we'll wave goodbye to Menorah.
Menorah is a better horse than Oscar Whiskey who is prob more suited to the Aintree Hurdle so there goes one more.
Khyber Kim was in the form of his life last year coming into this and lost - just don't think he is quite classy enough to do more than hope for a place. So that leaves 4:
Peddlar's Cross - Won well here last year in the Neptune but not sure his form is as impressive as it looks. Did all that was asked in beating Bygones of Brid the last day but that won't set any hearts racing. Being priced up purely on 1 race (something in of itself I don't like) where he beat Starluck by 1 1/4Ls. Starluck has since gone chasing being deemed not good enough for a Champion hurdle by his trainer. The only reason for the talk was he beat Binocular who was obviously having an off day by 7Ls BUT if we look 6Ls further back we find Bygones of Brid again! Not Champion winning form - don't listen to the hype this horse is not the answer!
Dunguib - he was the talking horse coming here last year, some people say that he would have beaten Menorah with a different jockey, I'm not so sure. What I do know though is I expected at least as much from him this year as I did for Menorah that being the case I have to admit to having had a nibble at the 20s over Christmas (with stakes refunded if Binocular wins). I think he will come out top in the battle of last year's novices after a satisfactory comeback in the Red Mills but that will probably just be enough for a place.
Binocular - I wouldn't tell anyone not to back this horse. A good champion last year. Fantastic again in the Christmas hurdle and ignoring his off day first time out has done all thats been asked of him. He'll be on the premises somewhere and I might get involved e/w on the day as I expect money will come for the other 3 at the head of the betting but on current prices I (very marginally) am going to side against him.
HURRICANE FLY - is sired byMontjeu who I'm told has a 0-31 record of horses at the festival but statitics can prove anything and I never trust a statistic I don't understand - maybe it is because Montjeu horses don't like running on hills or maybe there is a more simple explanation - if you are shelling out 75k to have your broodmare spend a night of passion with the man himself you probably aren't doing it in the hope of someday winning the Fred Winter. Montjeu are bred to be top class middle distance flat horses and not to be able to jump so much as a twigg. GOt some news for you though - this guy has the best of both of it. Not only can he jump but he's got a pretty nifty turn of foot for a hurdler. Spent the winter laughing at 6 times G1 winner Solwhit finally causing to trainer Charles Byrne to divert him to the stayers hurdle. Worth mentioning the last time poor Charlie even thought he has Solwhit so good he backed him to beat this machine! This will be Hurricane first trip to Cheltenham which will have plenty of trends followers crossing them off their list but that was due to injuries and no lack of ability. He is a best price online of 5/1 but if you tip into a Ladbrokes shop they will give you 11/2 (in Ireland at least)
Mares Race:
Hard to see past Quevega here. She;s turned this race into a procession the last 2 years. However given her short price it leaves a bit of value in the e/w market. The English will undoubtely plunge into Sparky May who had a good win to beat Carole's Legacy by 2Ls last time out however that form is not enough to get close to Quevega if she is near her best. The only possible fly in the ointment is Magens Star who also holds an entry in the Supreme. She's had 2 stroll at the racecourse this season in nothing races winning by a combined 31Ls - 16s is big enough for us to get involved and hope!
2pts win Realt Dubh 9/1 (WH)
2pts win Hurricane Fly 11/2 (Lads)
1pt e/w Magens Star 16/1 (Boyles, PP, Betfred)
Tuesday, 1 March 2011
Cheltenham - Supreme
OK first things first given all the specials on in the bookies for the first race of the festival the most important thing here is to try and get as much money in play as possible. Paddy Power are refunding all losing bets if Cue Card wins (€200 max) - which is currently rated about a 28% chance. Bruce Betting are offering 3/1 on Cue Card offering a straight up 14% edge or you can arb it and take the cash (€500max).
A quick preview of the horses below along with my probable strategy - there won't be any specific tips on this race as I will be using a scattergun approach to try to maximise value but it will be hard to put yourself in a position where you have a negative expectation on this race.
Cue Card has an official rating of 159 (3lbs higher than Dunguib 4/5f was last year) has raced around Cheltenham 3 times with 2 wins and a second. His one defeat was by 4 1/2Ls to Menorah last years winner off level weights. Worth bearing in mind CC was 4 at the time and Menorah was 5, if it was the supreme at those ages he would have been receiving an 8lb allowance. Looks like he can leave the Bumpers winner hoodoo well behind and deliver the good here. IF there was no PP offer I would probably be putting him up as a bet.
Spirit Son looked awesome the last day sauntering away with a listed race. Hasn't been tested yet against the best but a good turn of foot and the bookies are right to have him as the main danger to CC.
Sprinter Sacre is a chaser in waiting - won't disgrace himself here but stables second string and I wouldn't be too keen on getting involved.
Recession Proof like Get Me out of Here (2nd last year) is coming off the back of winning the Totesport Trophy. Not sure he is quite up to that standard but probably not a million miles away. On a pure line of form through Bothy and Menorah he has about 26lbs to find with Cue Card. Don't think there will be quite that much between them but he'll have to up his game to get involved in the finish here.
Al Ferof was 2nd in the Bumper behind Cue Card last year and although he's had a good season he hasn't impressed as much. Fell at Cheltenham on his hurdling debut against some rag bag opposition and then came third when racing a bit keenly (apparently) in the fog at Newbury over Christmas. 2 straightforward wins since including the ill-fated race in Newbury a few weeks back involving the electrocution of some of his competitors - tbh he probably needs one or 2 of these to drop dead to win this but it is worth noting he is trained by Nicholls, ridden by Ruby (probably) runs in Nolands colours - I would be surprised if these factors aren't enough to see him shorten up on the day and so there are worse plans than having a back to lay. Not the worst option but has a bit to find.
Zaidpour is a bit of a mystery to me. I'll gladly forgive him losing on the heavy ground over Christmas and he definitely will be better on the good ground we are likely to see at Cheltenham. But watching back the video of his race the last day in Leopardstown I'm just a bit worried that he had quite a hard race the last day. He came under pressure turning in but instead of minding him Townend drove him out all the way to the line to get second. Shot from the Hip who also runs in this race came third that day but I thought his jockey took a bit more care of him once he realised he was never getting to the winner. Shot from the Hip could be the joker in the pack here althoughI fancy ZP to recover and show himself the best of the Irish. Also unless there is word for JP's horse in Queens the night before the Irish money should be enough to shorten up ZP on track a litttle on the day.
I will be looking to have Cue Card, Spirit Son and Zaidpour as winners for me in this race and prob try to limit the downside on Shot from the Hip but like I said make sure you get plenty of money in play no matter what you do.
Hope to preview the Arkle in the next day or 2 and will actually be back to proper tipping on that one!
A quick preview of the horses below along with my probable strategy - there won't be any specific tips on this race as I will be using a scattergun approach to try to maximise value but it will be hard to put yourself in a position where you have a negative expectation on this race.
Cue Card has an official rating of 159 (3lbs higher than Dunguib 4/5f was last year) has raced around Cheltenham 3 times with 2 wins and a second. His one defeat was by 4 1/2Ls to Menorah last years winner off level weights. Worth bearing in mind CC was 4 at the time and Menorah was 5, if it was the supreme at those ages he would have been receiving an 8lb allowance. Looks like he can leave the Bumpers winner hoodoo well behind and deliver the good here. IF there was no PP offer I would probably be putting him up as a bet.
Spirit Son looked awesome the last day sauntering away with a listed race. Hasn't been tested yet against the best but a good turn of foot and the bookies are right to have him as the main danger to CC.
Sprinter Sacre is a chaser in waiting - won't disgrace himself here but stables second string and I wouldn't be too keen on getting involved.
Recession Proof like Get Me out of Here (2nd last year) is coming off the back of winning the Totesport Trophy. Not sure he is quite up to that standard but probably not a million miles away. On a pure line of form through Bothy and Menorah he has about 26lbs to find with Cue Card. Don't think there will be quite that much between them but he'll have to up his game to get involved in the finish here.
Al Ferof was 2nd in the Bumper behind Cue Card last year and although he's had a good season he hasn't impressed as much. Fell at Cheltenham on his hurdling debut against some rag bag opposition and then came third when racing a bit keenly (apparently) in the fog at Newbury over Christmas. 2 straightforward wins since including the ill-fated race in Newbury a few weeks back involving the electrocution of some of his competitors - tbh he probably needs one or 2 of these to drop dead to win this but it is worth noting he is trained by Nicholls, ridden by Ruby (probably) runs in Nolands colours - I would be surprised if these factors aren't enough to see him shorten up on the day and so there are worse plans than having a back to lay. Not the worst option but has a bit to find.
Zaidpour is a bit of a mystery to me. I'll gladly forgive him losing on the heavy ground over Christmas and he definitely will be better on the good ground we are likely to see at Cheltenham. But watching back the video of his race the last day in Leopardstown I'm just a bit worried that he had quite a hard race the last day. He came under pressure turning in but instead of minding him Townend drove him out all the way to the line to get second. Shot from the Hip who also runs in this race came third that day but I thought his jockey took a bit more care of him once he realised he was never getting to the winner. Shot from the Hip could be the joker in the pack here althoughI fancy ZP to recover and show himself the best of the Irish. Also unless there is word for JP's horse in Queens the night before the Irish money should be enough to shorten up ZP on track a litttle on the day.
I will be looking to have Cue Card, Spirit Son and Zaidpour as winners for me in this race and prob try to limit the downside on Shot from the Hip but like I said make sure you get plenty of money in play no matter what you do.
Hope to preview the Arkle in the next day or 2 and will actually be back to proper tipping on that one!
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