Black Star can shine brightest

OK, I bit longer than anticipated but better late than never. Going to finish off Day 1 in this post.

Arkle:
Ok lets start with the favourite Medermit - the best of these over hurdles including a 1/4L defeat to Go Native in the Supreme a few years back. 5 runs at Cheltenham though and he has never won despite placing 4 times. I think he is going to make it a 5 out of 6 without taking home the trophy. He's had 2 hard races already this year and I just have a feeling that combined with him prefering slightly longer is enough to look elsewhere for the winner.

Finian's Rainbow probably has the strongest form on paper however a 12L beating of Hells Bay shouldn't be taken at face value - a 3 horse race where Hells Bay quite possibly was still feeling the effects of chasing home Time for Rupert 2 weeks earlier. He's never really been under pressure in any of his races he's made mistakes in all of them in particular last time out when asked to jump behind other horse instead of going to front on his own which is a worry. Another point to note is that 9 if the last 13 winners had a 5 week break before the Arkle - he falls a little short of this.

I rate Ghizao as Englands best chance of keeping this prize at home. He didn't last the 2m5f in the Neptune last year however his other 3 runs at Chelt have been 2 wins and a second including a comfortable win over Captain Chris over course and distance in a G2 in November. Hard to find flaws in his form given he needed the run first time out and has had a nice break in the run up. Kicking myself for not taking the 11/2 a week or 2 ago - 4/1 now and I might have a saver but there is better value elsewhere at this stage.


The horse I really wanted to back for this race was Noble Prince but after going down a short head to his fathers horse the last day his owner is sending him to the Jewson. In his absense the horse who beat him the last day REALT DUBH looks the bet of race. All of his winning has been done on soft or heavy but that has more to do with the weather than a preference on the horses part (imo). He won back to back G1's at the turn of the year and has had a nice long break since. It was also impressive the way he battled to regain the lead inside the final furlong the last day when it looked like he was headed by Noble Prince. Jumping isn't the prettiest but not major scares to date so fingers crossed - at 9/1 we'll take our chances!

Champion Hurdle:
Lets start with a few facts first to thin the field:
1 5yo has won this since 1985 - no reason to think Mille Chief will be no.2
No Supreme winner since Bula in 1971 has followed up in this the next year and only 1 horse in the last 27 years has won without a run since the New Year so much as he was the hero last year we'll wave goodbye to Menorah.
Menorah is a better horse than Oscar Whiskey who is prob more suited to the Aintree Hurdle so there goes one more.
Khyber Kim was in the form of his life last year coming into this and lost - just don't think he is quite classy enough to do more than hope for a place. So that leaves 4:

Peddlar's Cross - Won well here last year in the Neptune but not sure his form is as impressive as it looks. Did all that was asked in beating Bygones of Brid the last day but that won't set any hearts racing. Being priced up purely on 1 race (something in of itself I don't like) where he beat Starluck by 1 1/4Ls. Starluck has since gone chasing being deemed not good enough for a Champion hurdle by his trainer. The only reason for the talk was he beat Binocular who was obviously having an off day by 7Ls BUT if we look 6Ls further back we find Bygones of Brid again! Not Champion winning form - don't listen to the hype this horse is not the answer!

Dunguib - he was the talking horse coming here last year, some people say that he would have beaten Menorah with a different jockey, I'm not so sure. What I do know though is I expected at least as much from him this year as I did for Menorah that being the case I have to admit to having had a nibble at the 20s over Christmas (with stakes refunded if Binocular wins). I think he will come out top in the battle of last year's novices after a satisfactory comeback in the Red Mills but that will probably just be enough for a place.

Binocular - I wouldn't tell anyone not to back this horse. A good champion last year. Fantastic again in the Christmas hurdle and ignoring his off day first time out has done all thats been asked of him. He'll be on the premises somewhere and I might get involved e/w on the day as I expect money will come for the other 3 at the head of the betting but on current prices I (very marginally) am going to side against him.

HURRICANE FLY - is sired byMontjeu who I'm told has a 0-31 record of horses at the festival but statitics can prove anything and I never trust a statistic I don't understand - maybe it is because Montjeu horses don't like running on hills or maybe there is a more simple explanation - if you are shelling out 75k to have your broodmare spend a night of passion with the man himself you probably aren't doing it in the hope of someday winning the Fred Winter. Montjeu are bred to be top class middle distance flat horses and not to be able to jump so much as a twigg. GOt some news for you though - this guy has the best of both of it. Not only can he jump but he's got a pretty nifty turn of foot for a hurdler. Spent the winter laughing at 6 times G1 winner Solwhit finally causing to trainer Charles Byrne to divert him to the stayers hurdle. Worth mentioning the last time poor Charlie even thought he has Solwhit so good he backed him to beat this machine! This will be Hurricane first trip to Cheltenham which will have plenty of trends followers crossing them off their list but that was due to injuries and no lack of ability. He is a best price online of 5/1 but if you tip into a Ladbrokes shop they will give you 11/2 (in Ireland at least)

Mares Race:
Hard to see past Quevega here. She;s turned this race into a procession the last 2 years. However given her short price it leaves a bit of value in the e/w market. The English will undoubtely plunge into Sparky May who had a good win to beat Carole's Legacy by 2Ls last time out however that form is not enough to get close to Quevega if she is near her best. The only possible fly in the ointment is Magens Star who also holds an entry in the Supreme. She's had 2 stroll at the racecourse this season in nothing races winning by a combined 31Ls - 16s is big enough for us to get involved and hope!

2pts win Realt Dubh 9/1 (WH)
2pts win Hurricane Fly 11/2 (Lads)
1pt e/w Magens Star 16/1 (Boyles, PP, Betfred)